Early Look at the 53 Man Roster

[gswhoops]

So with the draft in the rearview mirror and UDFA signings made official, I thought it might be a good time to take a shot at projecting the 53 for 2014:

-I'm assuming that the following players will start on the PUP/NFI: Bowman (ILB), Thomas (OG), Reaser (CB), Millard (FB/TE)

Locks Likely On the Bubble Longshot

QB: Kaepernick Gabbert Bethel-Thompson Johnson Faulkner
RB: Gore Hunter Hyde Lattimore James Hampton
FB: Miller Tufuaku
WR: Crabtree Boldin Johnson Patton Ellington Osgood Lloyd Baldwin Jacobs Reed Wylie
TE: Davis McDonald Carrier Celek Cleveland
OT: Staley Davis Martin Bykowski Marquardt Netter Fonoti
OG: Iupati Boone Snyder Looney Seymour
OC: Kilgore Martin Farrell

17 Locks 4 Likely 11 On the Bubble 12 Longshots

DL: Smith McDonald Williams Carradine Dorsey Jerod-Eddie Dobbs Dial Purcell Okoye
OLB: Smith Brooks Lemonier Skuta Lynch Breslin
ILB: Willis Borland Wilhoite Moody Skov
CB: Brock Culliver Wright Johnson Cook Acker Morris Cox
S: Reid Bethea Ward Dahl Ventrone Spillman Campbell McCray

13 Locks 8 Likely 12 On the Bubble 4 Longshots

K: Dawson
P: Lee, Schmidt
LS: McDermott

3 Locks 1 Longshot

So the totals are in my assessment are: 33 Locks, 12 Likely, 23 On the Bubble, 17 Longshots - which means that, realistically, 23 guys are fighting for roughly 8 spots. If Aldon starts the season on suspension, that might open up another roster spot, at least temporarily (probably for an OLB). Many of the "on the bubble" players are positional battles that look to be intense (CB, DL, backup OL, STers) where some of the OTB guys will make the team, but it's hard to tell who at this point. Some of the longshots have PS eligibility which means while they probably won't make the roster, they may be with the team for 2014 in some capacity.

[thesack12]

Nice thread, thanks for taking the time to create it....

I agree with you for the most part. Here are my personal thoughts:

1) I think Josh Johnson will run away with QB2 duties. This is an entirely different situation than the last time Josh was in camp. At that time QB was cemented with Smith/Kaep. I have zero faith in Gabbert, and that guy has certainly shown that he withers in competition. I mean the guy got beat out by Chad Henne for crying out loud. If/when that happens I don't think they keep 3 QB's so Blaine will be cut, which will be the end chapter of that godawful trade. Whomever shows more between Faulkner/Thompson will probably be kept on PS.

2) LaMichael James is gone. Which if Looney is released also (quite possible) it will complete the extermination of the entire 2012 draft class. What a disasterous draft.

3) I don't think Osgood should have been resigned, and I don't think he should make the roster. Roster spots are simply too valuable for special teams only guys (except of course LS, P, K). Osgood has ZERO offensive value, plus he is 34.

4) I'll admit I don't know much of anything about Cleveland, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if he surpasses both Celek and Carrier. Those guys are incredibly uninspiring, they basically have zero upside. That being the case, Frisco should have drafted a TE to plug in there, and its not as if McDonald has shown anything good.

5) I Would consider Dorsey to be a lock. I know Williams is coming back, and he won that job before he went down but Glenn had a very god year, and the DT depth isnt too strong

6) I doubt he makes the team but I am interested to see how well Okoye performs after being in a football environment for a year. Prior to last year's draft process, he had never been involved with football

7) Moody has solid special teams value, but I wouldn't be surprised if Skov surpasses him. That said Skov will have to be able to contribute on ST if he is to make the roster, and I don't know where he is with that.

8) That is a VERY uninspiring group of CB's. Brock is the only guy you can halfway count on in that entire bunch. There is nothing to like about Culliver at this point, Wright has been solid in the past but that has been awhile ago, Cook has done nothing but underhwhelm in the NFL thus far, everybody else are rookies and career practice squad guys. The team is in trouble here, and that is scary.

[gswhoops]

Thanks for your response. I think Gabbert makes the team just because of his fully guaranteed contract but I could definitely see Johnson beating him out for the primary backup duties, and whichever of McBLT or Faulkner they like better goes to the PS.

Agree that LMJ is most likely gone. I can't see us carrying 5 RBs (and he's definitely not making the team over Gore/Hyde/Hunter/Lattimore) and like you said we don't have the roster spots for many ST-only guys. As far as Osgood is concerned he was great for us on ST so he might earn a spot if we can't find a guy who can contribute there and as a position player. But he's clearly behind the 5 guys ahead of him as a WR and he's old.

I think Cleveland has a legitimate shot to win the TE3 spot. Apparently he was a highly sought after UDFA. Carrier and Celek are pretty meh.

The CBs would look better if Ward were included as the nickel CB which is where he'll start out, but yeah, it's rough.

[thesack12]

Ahh yes, Gabbert's guaranteed contract is going to be in the equation (which makes that trade all the more terrible, but thats another topic.) That said If Johnson clearly outplays Gabbert, which is probably going to happen, I can see them cutting Blaine even with the guaranteed $. By that point, it would come down to a whats best for the team/integrity issue. There wouldn't be much incentive to carry a 3rd QB on the roster, when said player would never be active on gamedays. That roster spot would be immensely better served going to a player that might actually get on the field, and help the team win a game. The integrity factor would come into play within the players view of the management. If Johnson runs circles around Gabbert, and Gabbert is kept on the team, they really can't sell the we are moving forward with the players that gives us the best chance to win mantra. I may be overselling that point, but I can see a sense of resentment developing if that becomes the case, especially with the core veterans on the team. I also think there is an outside chance some QB needy team would make a waiver claim on Blaine were he cut, simply due to him still being young and was a very high draft pick. If he was claimed, Frisco would not be responsible for his contract.

LMJ has publicly expressed his desire to leave on more than one occasion. That plus the fact that he is a very underwhelming player, and is in an extremely crowded position means its basically a lock that he is gone. He won't be missed either.

I just am not real high on Osgood. This guy is a specialist that performs such a small role, and he is 34 years old. Sure, his special teams value is solid but he doesn't even do any returning. He's strictly a coverage/ blocking guy. That is a very replaceable role to fill. Its not like the guy is pure aces either. I remember that ridiculous fair catch interference penalty he had at the end of the Saints game, that played a very large role into Frisco losing that game. If Frisco wins that game, they win the division which would have meant the NFC championship would have been in Frisco. True, that game should have already been over with had the refs not blown the roughing the passer on Brees call, but Osgood can't give them a free 15 yards in that situation. This guy also has ZERO offensive value. IMO, they need to groom either Patton/Ellington/or one of the DB's to take over Osgood's role. Osgood just doesn't provide enough value to warrant a roster spot, IMO.Its time to move on.

Yeah, I did some reading up on Cleveland. You're correct, apparently he was a highly valued UDFA. Athough, I don't really know whay. I had personally never heard of the guy prior. I guess he was pretty much exclusively a blocker for his entire college career. He doesn't seem to be overly athletic, and didn't show much in the passing game. But one thing we do know is both Celek and Carrier aren't too awesome, so at the very least Cleveland will push those guys. At this point, Cleveland has more upside than either of those other 2.

The CB situation scares the hell out of me. Its really a horrific group for a team that is in win now mode. Hell, its a bad group for a team in any mode really. Hopefully Ward will take to nickel corner, because if he doesn't... Yikes!!!

[thesack12]

Due to the pre-existing foot injury Jimmie ward missed rookie camp, is missing the current OTA's, and its not looking good for him for the approaching mini camp. So he is already behind the 8 ball, and his development is already delayed. This is especially important because Frisco apparently intends to rely on him for an important role, and most importantly he is switching positions. This guy's development is crucial, and its not off to a good start.

This of course, is only making the CB situation look worse and worse.