2016 NFL Free Agency

[wco81]

That's his second ACL?

I guess they gave Norman too much money.

[NinerSickness]

That's his second ACL?

I guess they gave Norman too much money.

Oh yeah, I forgot about his other ACL tear. Tough to have a long career with 2 ACL tears. His game was all about speed too.

I'd still bring him back though. Not a lot of viable options right now. And most of them are options with huge character concerns (Hardy, possible-drug-addict Easley, Brass knuckles).

[ChrisPozz]

A person should probably click the link and read the entire article, as it is the best analysis of Norman so far (outside of my own, ha!) but if you just can't do it, I highlighted possibly the best portion. Right after the highlighted part it contains little clips of examples of what they're talking about.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2016/film-room-josh-norman

Norman primarily played zone coverage in tight margins last season. In the Carolina Panthers' scheme, he primarily played Cover-2, Cover-3, and Quarters. The strength of the Panthers defense is their front seven. The unit is specifically designed that way by general manager Dave Gettleman. Since taking over in 2013, Gettleman has drafted only one cornerback: 2014 fifth-rounder Bene Benwikere. Gettleman instead focused his picks on pieces for his front seven while signing low-cost free agents to build his secondary.

Gettleman understood that he could rely on the strength of his front seven to alleviate the pressure on his back four. He wouldn't blitz, so he could keep seven defenders in coverage as often as possible. Instead of fighting at the top of the draft for talented defensive backs who could play in space -- athletes with precise feet, consistent discipline and impressive ball skills -- Gettleman focused on getting players who could play the ball in the air while fitting the defense's zone-heavy scheme. Individual mistakes would be less of an issue in this defense, because everyone would be playing with help nearby and they wouldn't be exposed unless specific route combinations had been called.

This is the context surrounding the rise of Norman.

Norman was celebrated as one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL as the Panthers ascended to the top of the NFC. The talented cornerback had struggled with his consistency throughout his career, even being benched by the current coaching staff for his poor play in the past. He timed his rise to prominence perfectly, as 2015 was a contract year for him. Nobody expected Norman to hit the free agent market, and he didn't initially because the Panthers put the franchise tag on him. That leads us up to this week. Gettleman made the astonishing decision to withdraw Norman's tender so he could hit the free agent market. While he clearly valued the individual talent, Gettleman's philosophy shone through in this move. He wasn't going to overpay a player who played an ancillary role in his ideal defense.

While his talent will obviously attract a lot of teams, those teams should be cautious in throwing money Norman's way. Firstly, he's not young. Norman will turn 29 this year despite only being in the league for four years. Secondly, pursuing teams need to separate Norman's individual play from the support he received in Carolina. Just last year we saw the Philadelphia Eagles completely misevaluate a player in a similar situation. The Eagles signed Byron Maxwell from a zone-heavy team that didn't blitz much and had exceptional talent in the front seven. When he was asked to play more man coverage in more space, Maxwell's ball skills were no longer enough to carry him. he was exposed so much so that the Eagles essentially gave him away 12 months later.

Comparing Norman to Maxwell now sounds ludicrous, but comparing the two last year wouldn't have been. Maxwell would likely have been the more popular name.

To separate Norman from his scheme, extensive analysis is required. I used the Pre-Snap Reads Analysis Method to go through all 19 games that he played last year. The method is explained in greater detail here, but it essentially looks at every single play a cornerback plays and tracks whether he successfully carried out his assignment or not. It only includes plays where the cornerback and receiver were in fair one-on-one situations. Despite playing 19 games last year, Norman only had 253 qualifying plays. Darrelle Revis had 375 when he played 19 games in 2014. Revis and Richard Sherman have consistently been the best performers in these analyses over the years. Their success rates have hovered around 81 percent for the most part. Any rate over 80 percent is very impressive, while quality starters primarily stay above 75 percent.

Norman finished with a 69.96 percent success rate in 2015. As a one-on-one defender, Norman is below average. He shouldn't be asked to play man coverage in space on a regular basis. When he does play man coverage, he is typically at his best bailing away from the line of scrimmage at the snap. This is because he can't jam receivers in press at the line of scrimmage.

[NinerSickness]

So after the draft, will teams cut some salary if they got replacements? What about after June 1st?

I'm a little excited about the possibility of signing Chis Culliver. I know he's got the 2nd ACL tear, but he was ballin' w/ the Niners before he went to Wshington. If he can get anywhere near that form in the next 2 years, I'd be pretty happy w/ the Niners' defensive backfield (I think he & Johnson would make a good duo). I'd love to get a true #1 guy, but you don't always have that luxury.

[Ray_Dogg]

So after the draft, will teams cut some salary if they got replacements? What about after June 1st?

I'm a little excited about the possibility of signing Chis Culliver. I know he's got the 2nd ACL tear, but he was ballin' w/ the Niners before he went to Wshington. If he can get anywhere near that form in the next 2 years, I'd be pretty happy w/ the Niners' defensive backfield (I think he & Johnson would make a good duo). I'd love to get a true #1 guy, but you don't always have that luxury.

He was ballin when we had Fangio and Donatell.

[wco81]

Probably when the pass rush was a lot better.

[NinerSickness]

Culliver cut.

I would've been interested in the Niners signing him, but they just drafted 2 CBs.

[Mem49er]

Culliver cut.

I would've been interested in the Niners signing him, but they just drafted 2 CBs.

3 CBs

[Bingo_AlphaMan]

Culliver cut.

I would've been interested in the Niners signing him, but they just drafted 2 CBs.

Culliver is a phucking bum. I can't believe you people are still talking him up as if he was relevant/ a difference maker for us. Actually I take that back--he was indeed a difference maker on the SB game by costing us that game. Smfh. He and Kyle Williams are two of the most disliked players we drafted in the past 10 years. He was 3rd on our depth chart for crying out loud on a very loaded team. He never was a good player. Got exposed in Washington by not having the same talent around him.

[CalamityX12]

Culliver cut.

I would've been interested in the Niners signing him, but they just drafted 2 CBs.

Culliver is a phucking bum. I can't believe you people are still talking him up as if he was relevant/ a difference maker for us. Actually I take that back--he was indeed a difference maker on the SB game by costing us that game. Smfh. He and Kyle Williams are two of the most disliked players we drafted in the past 10 years. He was 3rd on our depth chart for crying out loud on a very loaded team. He never was a good player. Got exposed in Washington by not having the same talent around him.

Kyle Williams.....

[wco81]

Gulliver did okay enough in his rookie year. Was that when they went to the SB?

He was okay during the regular season at least.

But once he blew out his knee, was he ever the same?

Unless McCloughan only signed him for sentimental reasons, presumably he had something of value when he was a free agent. Then again he cut Culliver after just one year.

But yeah, giving up that big play score in the SB is going to overshadow any number of good plays he may have had during his 49ers career.

[NinerSickness]

Culliver cut.

I would've been interested in the Niners signing him, but they just drafted 2 CBs.

Culliver is a phucking bum. I can't believe you people are still talking him up as if he was relevant/ a difference maker for us. Actually I take that back--he was indeed a difference maker on the SB game by costing us that game. Smfh. He and Kyle Williams are two of the most disliked players we drafted in the past 10 years. He was 3rd on our depth chart for crying out loud on a very loaded team. He never was a good player. Got exposed in Washington by not having the same talent around him.

Culliver was actually really good in his contract year.

And it's not like there are a lot of FA out there who could help a team.

But like I said, the team has too many CBs as it is.