Anyone else concerned with Lynch / Shanahan WR evals?

[a8bil]

Seems like they are infatuated with the semi-quick, medium sized receivers? Sure, Samuel on paper looks a lot like slightly thicker Antonio Brown, but the number of 5'11" 4.5 40 guys around the league who can fight off DBS, and run routes to get themselves open can be counted on one hand. I thought Pettis was a real reach and, despite some flashes of talent, he's doesn't seem to be able to consistently get open. Too slight to fight off DBs? Not fast enough to get separation? I don't know, but I'm concerned that Samuel may be more of the same. Convince me I'm wrong.

[CrimsonCrew]

That's actually one of the few areas I'm not concerned about. Shanahan has done a great job of bringing in receiving talent, from Marquise Goodwin to Dante Pettis. In fact, almost all the WRs that they've brought in have been successful - when on the field. Health aside, they've gotten production from Trent Taylor, Richie James, and Pettis, of course.

As for Pettis specifically, my sense was that he excels at getting open. He seemed to be running free frequently when he was in the game. I think he should excel with Garoppolo back in.

[Bingo_AlphaMan]

I noticed that about them a while ago. What sealed the deal for me was when they traded up last year in the second and passed up on Christian Kirk. However, I do agree with the points that Crims raised in their defense.

[a8bil]

Do you think Crimson that it was just an inability of the QB to get Pettis the ball? 27 receptions on 7 games started and 12 games played is nothing to write home about, especially for a 1st round pick. 5 TDs is good production, but so much of the offense was put on Kittle's shoulders last year it was concerning. I like Taylor and James, but neither is that #1 guy this offense so desperately needs. I hope Samuel is that guy, but I was just a bit surprised by his measurables, which all point to a tweener. I know that WRs skills are not measured at the combine, but size, strength, quickness and speed all factor into whether a WR has a physical edge on DBs. Let's hope he's everything he's billed as.

[CrimsonCrew]

Do you think Crimson that it was just an inability of the QB to get Pettis the ball? 27 receptions on 7 games started and 12 games played is nothing to write home about, especially for a 1st round pick. 5 TDs is good production, but so much of the offense was put on Kittle's shoulders last year it was concerning. I like Taylor and James, but neither is that #1 guy this offense so desperately needs. I hope Samuel is that guy, but I was just a bit surprised by his measurables, which all point to a tweener. I know that WRs skills are not measured at the combine, but size, strength, quickness and speed all factor into whether a WR has a physical edge on DBs. Let's hope he's everything he's billed as.

First, a disclaimer: I don't necessarily agree with Shanahan's approach. I would like some bigger and more physical WRs on the roster. That said, Garoppolo is more of a window thrower than a contested-ball thrower. And Samuel is actually quite thick if not tall. Obviously Hurd has very good size, but he doesn't really play like a big receiver at this point. I think we have found some talent, but finding a true #1 guy in the second round can be tough. I think Pettis and Samuel both have potential to be 1,000+ yard receivers, but not expecting either to be a HOF guy.

As far as Pettis, you can't just look at his season totals. He was a rookie and he got injured early in the year (and late). I think his season after the bye is more indicative of his ability than just dividing his games by 12. Looking at the four games following the bye - he was injured toward the end of the first quarter against the Bears (he had 3 for 21 at that point), so I'm not going to consider that - he had 17 receptions for 338 yards and 4 TDs. That's an average of 4.25 receptions for 84.5 yards and a TD. And that doesn't include any major outliers. His best game was five for 129 and two TDs, and his worst was three for 49.

It's admittedly a small sample size, and teams didn't have film on him, but he was open frequently. His TD rate in that span is not sustainable, but I think the receptions and yards are (his YPC was quite high as fully 1/3 of his catches went for 20+ yards, so I would expect that to decline if he starts catching more balls). I'm not saying he'll do that this season (i.e., put up 1,300 yards). He'll have a lot more competition for balls this year, with Samuel in there, Goodwin hopefully healthy, and McKinnon/Coleman at RB. But I think he has that kind of potential. And I'm saying that as someone who hated that pick last year.

[a8bil]

Do you think Crimson that it was just an inability of the QB to get Pettis the ball? 27 receptions on 7 games started and 12 games played is nothing to write home about, especially for a 1st round pick. 5 TDs is good production, but so much of the offense was put on Kittle's shoulders last year it was concerning. I like Taylor and James, but neither is that #1 guy this offense so desperately needs. I hope Samuel is that guy, but I was just a bit surprised by his measurables, which all point to a tweener. I know that WRs skills are not measured at the combine, but size, strength, quickness and speed all factor into whether a WR has a physical edge on DBs. Let's hope he's everything he's billed as.

First, a disclaimer: I don't necessarily agree with Shanahan's approach. I would like some bigger and more physical WRs on the roster. That said, Garoppolo is more of a window thrower than a contested-ball thrower. And Samuel is actually quite thick if not tall. Obviously Hurd has very good size, but he doesn't really play like a big receiver at this point. I think we have found some talent, but finding a true #1 guy in the second round can be tough. I think Pettis and Samuel both have potential to be 1,000+ yard receivers, but not expecting either to be a HOF guy.

As far as Pettis, you can't just look at his season totals. He was a rookie and he got injured early in the year (and late). I think his season after the bye is more indicative of his ability than just dividing his games by 12. Looking at the four games following the bye - he was injured toward the end of the first quarter against the Bears (he had 3 for 21 at that point), so I'm not going to consider that - he had 17 receptions for 338 yards and 4 TDs. That's an average of 4.25 receptions for 84.5 yards and a TD. And that doesn't include any major outliers. His best game was five for 129 and two TDs, and his worst was three for 49.

It's admittedly a small sample size, and teams didn't have film on him, but he was open frequently. His TD rate in that span is not sustainable, but I think the receptions and yards are (his YPC was quite high as fully 1/3 of his catches went for 20+ yards, so I would expect that to decline if he starts catching more balls). I'm not saying he'll do that this season (i.e., put up 1,300 yards). He'll have a lot more competition for balls this year, with Samuel in there, Goodwin hopefully healthy, and McKinnon/Coleman at RB. But I think he has that kind of potential. And I'm saying that as someone who hated that pick last year.

thanks for the insight. It gives some reason for hope.

[Jikkle]

Shanahan schemes his guys open so I think he's mostly looks for guys that can play multiple WR spots because he loves to disguise his intentions with varied formations, guys that run crisp routes, and guys that can do something with the ball after the catch.

With a guy like Deebo I see Kyle's main attraction is his YAC as he's one of the best and he also can play multiple spots and runs great routes. So I would imagine Kyle is thinking to himself that he can put Deebo in different spots and scheme him the ball and Deebo will do damage once he gets the ball in his hands.

Hurd's appeal is obvious because Kyle probably envisions him as someone that he can eventually line up at RB, WR, and TE and that versatility can create havoc with a defense because that's tough to account for everything he could do on any give play. Plus since he was an RB he's another one that could damage with the ball in his hand in the passing game.

I don't think Kyle picks the best WRs but the best the fits what he wants to do and that's what great teams do is draft the best system fits and not always just the best overall players.

[CrimsonCrew]

Hurd could be a really interesting chess piece in the red zone. He's got the size to be our power back in that area, but the size and quickness to be a real receiving threat as well. Depending upon how we use him, it could really stress the defense to have him out there.

I don't hate having Hurd on our roster. I just hate taking him in the third. Take him in the fourth. Or even the fifth. Taking him in the third, we need him to be a contributor in the near future.

[NinerSickness]

The question is this...

Is Lynch the source of derp in the 49ers' drafts, or is it a meddling Shannahan?

[Pattersonca65]

The question is this...

Is Lynch the source of derp in the 49ers' drafts, or is it a meddling Shannahan?

This is not like the baalke era where baalke was in control. The ownership wanted a collaborative approach so Shanahan has a big say in all personnel decisions, especially on the offensive end. Pretty clear the offensive draft picks are those Shanahan wanted.

[Ray_Dogg]

No I'm not concerned with Kyle's WR evals or his TE evals, or his RB evals or his olinemen evals. He's shown he knows what he wants and has enough hits to offset misses.

I'm more concerned about their CB, safety, dline, and LB evals. So it's on Bosa, Ford, Warner and Alexander to offset the misses, Warner is certainly trending up. Can Spoon, Moore and Harris become quality starters? Colbert? Will Bosa be a 10+ sack a year guy? Will Ford stay healthy and productive? We will see and the pressure is on because if most of this flops then we know the axe falls on Lynch.

[CrimsonCrew]

No I'm not concerned with Kyle's WR evals or his TE evals, or his RB evals or his olinemen evals. He's shown he knows what he wants and has enough hits to offset misses.

I'm more concerned about their CB, safety, dline, and LB evals. So it's on Bosa, Ford, Warner and Alexander to offset the misses, Warner is certainly trending up. Can Spoon, Moore and Harris become quality starters? Colbert? Will Bosa be a 10+ sack a year guy? Will Ford stay healthy and productive? We will see and the pressure is on because if most of this flops then we know the axe falls on Lynch.

Agreed. I have much greater concerns about the defensive side of the ball, and the defensive backfield in particular. Some of those young guys had better damn well break out and play well this year. If not, I'm going to start calling for the FO's head. In this draft in particular, it was just inexplicable not to address our need in the defensive backfield. If they're betting on our young guys yet again (see the treatment of DE last offseason), they need to be right.

I'm also concerned about the total disregard of player health. Literally everyone we added this offseason for big money or a premium pick (or both) has injury issues. Alexander is coming off the ACL tear. Ford has missed a lot of games due to nagging injuries, though nothing major. Bosa has two serious injuries. Samuel has had hamstring issues. Hurd has had concussion issues. Obviously Verrett and Ward have had one or two health problems. It's alarming, particularly given all the injuries we dealt with last year.

[Jikkle]

The question is this...

Is Lynch the source of derp in the 49ers' drafts, or is it a meddling Shannahan?

Everything the 9ers have done with the roster has Kyle's fingerprints all over it. That's why I criticize both when it comes to the roster because I highly doubt Lynch has made a pick that didn't have Kyle's seal of approval on it.

There is a reason to why Kyle picked Lynch who was a guy with no GM, Scouting, or front office experience because Kyle knew he would have the ultimate pull when it came to the draft, free agency, and roster.

That's why I don't put a lot of stock into the reports of friction between the two because why would you sign off on a guy with 0 scouting experience if you didn't intend to have a lot of say in the personnel process.

[Pattersonca65]

The question is this...

Is Lynch the source of derp in the 49ers' drafts, or is it a meddling Shannahan?

Everything the 9ers have done with the roster has Kyle's fingerprints all over it. That's why I criticize both when it comes to the roster because I highly doubt Lynch has made a pick that didn't have Kyle's seal of approval on it.

There is a reason to why Kyle picked Lynch who was a guy with no GM, Scouting, or front office experience because Kyle knew he would have the ultimate pull when it came to the draft, free agency, and roster.

That's why I don't put a lot of stock into the reports of friction between the two because why would you sign off on a guy with 0 scouting experience if you didn't intend to have a lot of say in the personnel process.

And the owners want it that way. They wanted acollaborative approach because of all of Baalke's infighting with the head coaches under him