thesack12 wrote:CrimsonCrew wrote:thesack12 wrote:Sanders being a soon to be free agent is well known, Bourne will also be a free agent, granted a restricted one. But there is still a chance he doesn't return.
A WR corps of Samuel/Hurd/Pettis/Taylor/James isn't going to cut it for a team that looks to be legit challengers for the Lombardi trophy again next season.
Unless his contract just approaches crazy numbers, I think bringing Sanders back has to be a very high priority. Especially considering the lack of available draft picks which limits getting WR help in the draft or via trade. The crop of other free agent WR's isn't exactly inspiring either.
Make Sanders new contract a 1 year deal with a high salary to get him his amount of shear dollars and re-evaluate in 2021. Or backload it on a 3 year deal or so, to fit in an Armstead franchise tag and re-evaluate Armstead in 2021.
The Niners very rapidly went from having among the most cap space in the league to among the least. They have about $16 million as it stands right now. Only six teams have less. If we franchise Armstead - and I don't think we can afford to sign him long-term - he'll cost about $15.5 million. We need to extend Kittle, who will be a FA after the 2020 season. Buckner we've got for his fifth-year option, so there's a little less pressure there, but we need to start thinking about re-signing him. We can free up some space by cutting Goodwin and McKinnon (which sucks given how much we paid him for literally no on-field contribution), but those savings have to go toward locking up our young guys. I just don't see how we can also pay Sanders at this time. It could be I'm wrong, but even an inexpensive one-year deal for him will probably run $8 million at a minimum.
Oh, and that figure for Armstead is if he's considered a DT. There's a very good chance he'll be considered a DE, in which case his cap hit would be $19 million.
For me, if it comes down to an either or type situation, I would take Sanders over Armstead. I just think that subtracting Sanders would hurt his position group more so than subtracting Armstead from his position group.
Without Sanders in the fold, Samuel would be the only semi proven WR left. And obviously he is still very young and not ready to be a legit #1. (For that matter Sanders isn't even a legit #1.) While Sanders' numbers don't jump off the page, his presence alone is a benefit, if for no other reason Defenses have to respect and pay attention to him leading to things opening up for the other guys. Sanders is also pretty damn clutch, and has tons of experience in big time situations. We also can't forget that we have a still developing Jimmy G at QB. Subtracting his 2nd best weapon isn't going to make things any easier for him. Hurd is still a complete question mark, do we really want to see 3 WR sets of Samuel/Pettis/Taylor?... No thanks
As for Armstead, while his pass rushing prowess might be tough to replace I think overall his impact can be more easily replaced with some combination of Thomas/Jones/Taylor/Street and hopefully a cheaply resigned Blair. Now obviously Armstead's ceiling is higher than the guys on that list, and he possesses a different skillset than some of those guys as well, still I like the available Armstead alternatives better than the available Sanders alternatives. If Ford can stay healthy next season, that would obviously help as well.
Also, this is really the first time in Armstead's career that he has flashed as being actually good. How much of that has to do with him being in a contract year? He wouldn't be the first guy to underwhelm his first few years, then blow up in his contract year, then regress to the mean after getting paid. Also, how does playing alongside a few stud DLineman factor into the Armstead equation? If its any type of determining factor at all (which it obviously is), it furthers my belief that Frisco can get some solid production out of those guys I mentioned earlier in place of Armstead. Those guys are going to benefit in the same ways that Armstead has.
Wanted to get to this last week, but didn't get a chance. I may move this to the offseason thread, too, as it probably fits better there.
Subtracting Sanders from WR would hurt more than subtracting Armstead from the DL. But the DL is the strength of this team right now and we should prioritize preserving it. It is MUCH better than the WR group, so despite the impact on the position group being less, it could well have a bigger impact on the team overall.
We have a relatively small window where we are at the pinnacle of talent in the league. We can continue to compete as the talent begins to fall off, but we'll need two things: 1) Garoppolo to step up and play like a franchise QB, and 2) less expensive players to come in and perform. We've actually gotten quite a bit of the latter this year (Moseley, RBs not named McKinnon or Coleman, Kittle of course, Brunskill). The former is still kind of hit or miss. But those are concerns for the future. In the immediate present (after the SB, anyway), we need to figure out how to keep this team together as long as possible. We should be able to manage the cap for one more year to more or less retain this talented squad. But hard decisions have to be made. We can't keep everyone.
In my view, our priority has to be keeping this defense together (and retaining Kittle, of course). Part of that is because I have great faith in Shanahan to get the most out of his offensive pieces. And part is because this DL is special as it's playing now. You're right to have some questions about Armstead's ability given his limited track record, but I disagree that he's only blown up this year. He was very good in spurts earlier in his career, he just kept getting injured. He was raw coming out, and has developed about as well as we could have hoped. But we're not banking on him long-term anyway. We're signing him to a one-year deal and then letting him walk. There's limited risk for the team, and he'll be motivated to keep playing hard. If a team wants to offer a trade for him, I strongly consider it, but I'm keeping the 26-year-old DL over the 33-year-old (in March) WR every time.
It comes down to a question of money. Sanders made $11 million this year. Is he going to take a paycut after we traded to get him? I doubt it. He's on the older side, so he's going to want more than a one-year deal if he can get it. I'm not willing to pay him.
If he somehow doesn't get signed in FA and we can come back around and get him for $5 million, by all means do it. But I can't justify $10+ million on him given our situation.
For the record, I am not endorsing extending Armstead. I don't think we can. I think we try to keep him for one more year, or net some solid trade compensation for losing him, and we try to keep Buckner and Bosa longterm.
