Super Bowl LIV Hype Thread!!!

[CrimsonCrew]

Weird. I can't see the image you posted, but I copied your link & posted it myself, and I can see it. Can you see my post's image?

It’s funny because If our defense had stayed healthy for the whole season, we’d have well over 60. Possibly close to 70 sacks

True. But we signed Dee Ford, so the odds of them staying healthy were always pretty slim.

[CrimsonCrew]

It’s not letting me post from imgur?

It's working for me. Here's exactly what I did from an iPhone.

1. Search on Google: "post image" with your browser (Safari if you're using an iPhone).

2. Click on "upload images - Imgur" ...it should be the 2nd link that comes up on Google.

3. Click on "Browse"

4. Select your photo library and then select "camera roll."

5. Tap the image you want to upload, and then it'll have a blue check mark on the image.

6. Click "done."

7. The image will then upload. You should see the image on the browser. Click and hold on the image you just uploaded, and then select "copy."

8. On realGM, select the "Img" icon on the top menu underneath the subject.

9. Put the icon from your phone between the [img] and the other box with the / before "img" and then tap the screen; select the "paste" option. The url should then be between the two boxes. Select "submit."

...If you aren't using an iPhone, I'm sure the buttons will be different, but the process should essentially be the same.

Trying this with that Garland pic I tried to post after the Hawks game.

[CrimsonCrew]

Well I can't figure this out either, apparently.... I tried adding the "i." and the "m." Don't know if those are Apple specific. I'm just trying to do this from my desktop PC.

[CrimsonCrew]

So part of me hates being this cynical, analytical type of person, but after I had wrapped my head around Kobe's death, I couldn't help but wonder if this might actually be a benefit to the Niners in that it will reduce at least some of the typical hype leading up to the super bowl. I'm not sure how much of a practical difference it will make, but certainly a lot of the coverage this week that would have gone to the team will now be taken up with Kobe, the crash, etc.

It's a terrible tragedy - especially the loss of the young people on the helicopter - and I don't mean to dismiss or downplay it in any way. Just wondering in terms of its effect on what would typically be the lead sports story this week.

[CrimsonCrew]

I was looking over the Niners' and Chiefs' recent schedules, and I will say, the Chiefs hype is pretty absurd. In their past six games (admittedly an arbitrary point, but both teams started that stretch with a good playoff team [NO and NE, respectively] and played some solid Ds), the Chiefs have averaged 31.5 PPG while the Niners have averaged 32.3. Even in the playoffs, where people view the Chiefs as blowing out their opponents, we are besting them with wins by a combined 34 points to their 31 points - though their point total is higher thanks to that 51-point effort.

Anyway, even pessimistic me is getting pretty excited, and I think a lot of people aren't giving this team a chance. I really think we can and will pull it off, though I'm trying to temper that.

[Bald Bull]

Read on Twitter

[wco81]

Mike Lombardi says 49ers have been 40% on third down in playoffs. They're going to have to do better and Jimmy will have to make throws.

Question is whether 49ers can create big pass plays off run fake.

Tyrone Mathieu is key for their coverages. He has to line up all the assignments pre snap, while the 49ers will do a lot of motion to try to line up favorable matchups.

On the other side of the ball he says 49ers have to tackles as best as they've ever done and limit 25-yard gains by the Chiefs.

[CrimsonCrew]

Mike Lombardi says 49ers have been 40% on third down in playoffs. They're going to have to do better and Jimmy will have to make throws.

Question is whether 49ers can create big pass plays off run fake.

Tyrone Mathieu is key for their coverages. He has to line up all the assignments pre snap, while the 49ers will do a lot of motion to try to line up favorable matchups.

On the other side of the ball he says 49ers have to tackles as best as they've ever done and limit 25-yard gains by the Chiefs.

That number is a bit deceptive for two reasons. First, they've been remarkably efficient on first and second downs, which have limited their shots at third down. Second, they've been leading big late in games and have been killing clock, which has led to fewer throws. It smacks of a media guy noticing a number and glomming onto it without looking into the context. For what it's worth, I also think it's wrong. I have them at a 45% rate.

Quick review of their third downs (I'm cleaning this up from an earlier version):

Minnesota

Drive 1
- They scored a TD without ever facing third down.

Drive 2
- 3rd and 10: 16-yard completion to Bourne.
- 3rd and 24: Garoppolo sack. In this drive, they took a sack in first down when McGlinchey basically didn't touch the defender (I think it was Hunter) on first down, and McGlinchey false-started on third. We failed to convert the 3rd and 24, shockingly, though Garoppolo took another sack (can't recall the specifics).

Drive 3
- 3rd and 12: 14-yard completion to Samuel. That was the only third down in this drive on the way to another TD. The

Drive 4
- 3rd and 1: successful QB sneak, followed by the INT on first down.

Drive 5 (second half)
- 3rd and 5: 21-yard completion to Bourne.
- 3rd and 2: incomplete pass followed by a FG.

Drive 6
- 3rd and 2: 11-yard run by Coleman. TD on the next play. They went up by 14

Drive 7
- 3rd and 1: rush for no yards and a punt. This was a three-and-out in which they ran three times straight, but got it back immediately on the muffed punt.

Drive 8
- 3rd and goal at the four: 1-yard completion to Kittle. Fairly conservative series that put us up by 17 in the 4th quarter.

Drive 9
- 3rd and 4: incomplete to Bourne. Three-and-out.

Drive 10
- 3rd and 6: five-yard run by Breida. We were in full clock-killing mode at this point.

Drive 11
- 3rd and 2: Breida runs for one yard. We converted on 4th, but Breida fumbled.

For this game, we went five of twelve on third down (42%). That isn't very good, but we were at 75% in the first half, and fell to 25% in the second half as we were trying to kill clock with a big lead. We failed on five straight third downs to end the game, never leading by less than 14 during that span. We will definitely need to do a better job of killing the clock against KC, but given the lead and how the D was playing, it's hard to criticize this.

Green Bay

Drive 1
- 3rd and 1: Coleman didn't pick it up rushing and we punted.

Drive 2
- 3rd and 8: Mostert's first TD run.

Drive 3
- 3rd and 6: Garoppolo took that potentially (but not) devastating sack. The sack was awful, but we weren't going to convert that regardless with the pressure they got.

Drive 4
- 3rd and 1: successful sneak en route to a TD. Niners up 17-0.

Drive 5
- 3rd and 2: Mostert ran for 10.
- 3rd and 8: Complete to Bourne for six and they kick the FG to go up by 20.

Drive 6
- Scored a TD without ever facing third down, went into the half up by 27.

Drive 7
- After they drove down and scored a TD to cut the lead to 20, we responded without facing third down.

Drive 8
- 3rd and 3: Mostert for two and we punt. We tried (feebly) to draw them offsides, and I think we should have gone for it on 4th and 1 from their 39. After this drive they scored a TD and closed to within 14.

Drive 9
- 3rd and 3: Kittle drew the PI for the first down.
- 3rd and 1: Mostert for two.
- 3rd and 2: Mostert for -1 and we kick the FG to go up by 17 with 3:30 left.

For that game, we were five of 10 on third down (50%). Not great, but in part because we scored two TDs without facing third down, it wasn't any kind of a problem.

Honestly, arguably the biggest takeaway from looking at third downs in this playoff run could be that the Niners have scored 64 points while only facing 22 third downs. That's pretty remarkable.

[NinerSickness]

Well I can't figure this out either, apparently.... I tried adding the "i." and the "m." Don't know if those are Apple specific. I'm just trying to do this from my desktop PC.

If you're using a PC, it's super easy.

1. Upload the image to imgur (check)

2. Once the image is uploaded, right-click on the image and select copy image address.

3. Paste the copied link between the boxes that pop up when you click on the "Img" icon on the RealGM menu.

[Bald Bull]

Read on Twitter

[CrimsonCrew]

There it is! Obviously not directly material to the SB, but let's cry a little more about the uncalled PI on Warner.....

[CrimsonCrew]

Pete Prisco ranks all the starters:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/super-bowl-2020-ranking-every-starter-for-chiefs-and-49ers-with-patrick-mahomes-george-kittle-at-the-top/

You can certainly quibble with this, but I think it's more or less fair for an author who isn't locked in on these two teams throughout the season. One thing I noted is that it doesn't include Dee Ford. Not shocking, as he's not technically a starter, but when healthy - and given rankings of guys like Chris Jones, health doesn't appear to be of primary importance - he's got to be at least top-15 and probably a fair bit higher in terms of guys who will be playing in this one.

[Jikkle]

There it is! Obviously not directly material to the SB, but let's cry a little more about the uncalled PI on Warner.....

People that complain about the PI on Warner never bring up that bogus unnecessary roughness call on Garland the drive prior that turned a 3rd and 7 to a 3rd and 17.

Sure there were no guarantees that the 9ers convert the 3rd down still but they had much better odds of converting a 3rd and 7 over a 3rd and 17 and considering they just drove down the prior two drives for TDs and got 16 yards on that 3rd down I feel good their chances of getting that conversion. If they get that conversion the game is nearly iced at that point.

[Jikkle]

Watch on YouTube

[CrimsonCrew]

There it is! Obviously not directly material to the SB, but let's cry a little more about the uncalled PI on Warner.....

People that complain about the PI on Warner never bring up that bogus unnecessary roughness call on Garland the drive prior that turned a 3rd and 7 to a 3rd and 17.

Sure there were no guarantees that the 9ers convert the 3rd down still but they had much better odds of converting a 3rd and 7 over a 3rd and 17 and considering they just drove down the prior two drives for TDs and got 16 yards on that 3rd down I feel good their chances of getting that conversion. If they get that conversion the game is nearly iced at that point.

Yeah, I went on a couple rants about this at the time as sports radio and Twitter were full of people complaining about the lack of a flag on Warner. This looked even worse live, but I don't think many people saw it because they were reacting to the call on Garland (I know I was).

That definitely should have been offsetting at the very least, and I think there's an argument that the shove of Garland was a foul between downs, which would have given the Niners a first down.

[CrimsonCrew]

No joke on this, get Katie Sowers to teach Jimmy G how to throw a deep ball. Check out the video at like the 3:35 mark.

Watch on YouTube

[Jikkle]

I was looking over the Niners' and Chiefs' recent schedules, and I will say, the Chiefs hype is pretty absurd. In their past six games (admittedly an arbitrary point, but both teams started that stretch with a good playoff team [NO and NE, respectively] and played some solid Ds), the Chiefs have averaged 31.5 PPG while the Niners have averaged 32.3. Even in the playoffs, where people view the Chiefs as blowing out their opponents, we are besting them with wins by a combined 34 points to their 31 points - though their point total is higher thanks to that 51-point effort.

Anyway, even pessimistic me is getting pretty excited, and I think a lot of people aren't giving this team a chance. I really think we can and will pull it off, though I'm trying to temper that.

I'm cautiously optimistic about the game because when you look at most of the stats being thrown around they favor the 9ers. I mean nearly every defensive stat alone suggests the 9ers should win. I feel we win overall in coaching especially when you figure Mike Shanahan is basically another offensive assistant and we actually win on SB experience having more players that have won and also importantly lost Super Bowls.

The only thing about the Chiefs you hear is Mahomes, Mahomes, Mahomes, and Mahomes. And Mahomes is an incredible player but people act like he's never lost a game before and every time he touches the ball he throws a TD. People overlook the Colts game where they only scored 13, the next game after that against the Texan where he looked ok, the Lions game was a shaky one, the Pats game they held the Chiefs to 3 in the 2nd half, and both Charger games he looked pretty human and they probably lose at least one of those games if River doesn't throw 4 INTs.

His mobility is being grossly overrated. He's a threat with his legs but he's not in the same class as Lamar, Kyler, or Wilson with his legs. And he's not immune to being confused at what a defense throws at him and no QB is immune to taking hits and being sacked.

[dr3am]

So the GOAT texted Jimmy G & told him to win the SB.

Uncle Sherm says he’s going to win this for Kobe.

Only a few more days, LETS GO NINERS! Quest for Six!!

[CrimsonCrew]

Mike Lombardi says 49ers have been 40% on third down in playoffs. They're going to have to do better and Jimmy will have to make throws.

Question is whether 49ers can create big pass plays off run fake.

Tyrone Mathieu is key for their coverages. He has to line up all the assignments pre snap, while the 49ers will do a lot of motion to try to line up favorable matchups.

On the other side of the ball he says 49ers have to tackles as best as they've ever done and limit 25-yard gains by the Chiefs.

That number is a bit deceptive for two reasons. First, they've been remarkably efficient on first and second downs, which have limited their shots at third down. Second, they've been leading big late in games and have been killing clock, which has led to fewer throws. It smacks of a media guy noticing a number and glomming onto it without looking into the context. For what it's worth, I also think it's wrong. I have them at a 45% rate.

Quick review of their third downs (I'm cleaning this up from an earlier version):

Minnesota

Drive 1
- They scored a TD without ever facing third down.

Drive 2
- 3rd and 10: 16-yard completion to Bourne.
- 3rd and 24: Garoppolo sack. In this drive, they took a sack in first down when McGlinchey basically didn't touch the defender (I think it was Hunter) on first down, and McGlinchey false-started on third. We failed to convert the 3rd and 24, shockingly, though Garoppolo took another sack (can't recall the specifics).

Drive 3
- 3rd and 12: 14-yard completion to Samuel. That was the only third down in this drive on the way to another TD. The

Drive 4
- 3rd and 1: successful QB sneak, followed by the INT on first down.

Drive 5 (second half)
- 3rd and 5: 21-yard completion to Bourne.
- 3rd and 2: incomplete pass followed by a FG.

Drive 6
- 3rd and 2: 11-yard run by Coleman. TD on the next play. They went up by 14

Drive 7
- 3rd and 1: rush for no yards and a punt. This was a three-and-out in which they ran three times straight, but got it back immediately on the muffed punt.

Drive 8
- 3rd and goal at the four: 1-yard completion to Kittle. Fairly conservative series that put us up by 17 in the 4th quarter.

Drive 9
- 3rd and 4: incomplete to Bourne. Three-and-out.

Drive 10
- 3rd and 6: five-yard run by Breida. We were in full clock-killing mode at this point.

Drive 11
- 3rd and 2: Breida runs for one yard. We converted on 4th, but Breida fumbled.

For this game, we went five of twelve on third down (42%). That isn't very good, but we were at 75% in the first half, and fell to 25% in the second half as we were trying to kill clock with a big lead. We failed on five straight third downs to end the game, never leading by less than 14 during that span. We will definitely need to do a better job of killing the clock against KC, but given the lead and how the D was playing, it's hard to criticize this.

Green Bay

Drive 1
- 3rd and 1: Coleman didn't pick it up rushing and we punted.

Drive 2
- 3rd and 8: Mostert's first TD run.

Drive 3
- 3rd and 6: Garoppolo took that potentially (but not) devastating sack. The sack was awful, but we weren't going to convert that regardless with the pressure they got.

Drive 4
- 3rd and 1: successful sneak en route to a TD. Niners up 17-0.

Drive 5
- 3rd and 2: Mostert ran for 10.
- 3rd and 8: Complete to Bourne for six and they kick the FG to go up by 20.

Drive 6
- Scored a TD without ever facing third down, went into the half up by 27.

Drive 7
- After they drove down and scored a TD to cut the lead to 20, we responded without facing third down.

Drive 8
- 3rd and 3: Mostert for two and we punt. We tried (feebly) to draw them offsides, and I think we should have gone for it on 4th and 1 from their 39. After this drive they scored a TD and closed to within 14.

Drive 9
- 3rd and 3: Kittle drew the PI for the first down.
- 3rd and 1: Mostert for two.
- 3rd and 2: Mostert for -1 and we kick the FG to go up by 17 with 3:30 left.

For that game, we were five of 10 on third down (50%). Not great, but in part because we scored two TDs without facing third down, it wasn't any kind of a problem.

Honestly, arguably the biggest takeaway from looking at third downs in this playoff run could be that the Niners have scored 64 points while only facing 22 third downs. That's pretty remarkable.

Wanted to do a comparison of the two SB teams in the playoffs. The Chiefs have actually been more efficient, facing only 19 third downs, but they've only converted 53% of those themselves, marginally better than our 45%. And their struggles have come early in games, allowing their opponents to take early leads. They were frankly awful against Houston, failing to convert their first three third downs, and only converting three of eight in the game. Of course, they also scored two TDs on passes to Kelce on third down, and scored three TDs without facing a third down. They were markedly better against Tennessee, but still failed to convert their first two. Like us, they frequently scored without facing third down in this one.

One thing the analysis of the Chiefs has indicated is how important Kelce is on third down. Of those 19 third downs, Mahomes threw to Kelce on six of them (37.5% of passes), and on the fourth down they converted. When we get them in those situations, we've GOT to keep tabs on Kelce.

[wco81]

Lombardi spewed out some other statistic goals for both teams.

49ers have to limit explosive plays by making the Chiefs have 15 third downs in the games and of course prevent them from converting at a high rate.

They have to try to limit the Chiefs TOP. IN their losses this year, they had 25 minutes or less TOP. Teams like Indy and Houston ran over 30 times. The Colts only average 4 YPC with 30 yards as their longest run in the game. But they essentially played keep away from Mahomes.

He said 49ers have to try to keep the score in the 20s because it could be tough for them to win if the scores are in the 30s.

Predicted the Chiefs would be called for holding at least twice in the game and noted that Mahomes had the most difficulty vs. man defense and being contained in the pocket.