Super Bowl LIV Hype Thread!!!

[CrimsonCrew]

Tartt has a whole week left to get ready, he’ll be good...

As far as the Chiefs OL being overall better than us I’m sorry but I don’t see it. Yes they have a better line for passing while we have a better line for running... with that being said a lot of people are sleeping on the scheme’s by Kyle... Jimmy only through a total of 8 times in the NFC championship game & we still blowed Green Bay out, incredible.

I’m definitely not sold on the Jimmy G train but let’s not forget this was the same guy who played very well in a flat out shootout in NO... Yeah Mahomes is better at this stage of their careers but Brees is still a first ballet hall of Famer who had another great season minus that Wild Card game.

Tartt was out five weeks following the initial injury and re-aggravated it somehow. It's a very good sign that he's practicing, but it's a concern.

We're talking about team superiority at positional groups, and theirs is better at the more important part of the game (almost everyone even tangentially related to today's NFL will acknowledge that the passing game is more important than the running game, though that's not to say running cannot be extremely important as we saw this past week). You can't factor coaching into that comparison. If you want to do that, then yes, we probably win that battle. Shanahan is arguably the best offensive mind in the game today. But Reid and Bienemy are also very, very good. And they have the most important single player who will take the field. That's a huge advantage.

Garoppolo is capable of putting up a good - even a great - game, and I expect him to throw more than we have the past two weeks. But I would get extremely worried if the score started approaching the 30s.

[CrimsonCrew]

Jimmy is definitely cuter. We may disagree on a number of other things, though. When have I worried about the Niners' offense? Baltimore, though there were some weather issues in that one. Definitely the first Seattle game, though we didn't have Kittle. Against Atlanta. When has the running game struggled? Oddly enough, against Arizona and their bad rushing D. Both games against Seattle. It was only okay against Atlanta. The offense has generally been good, but there have been times when it has stalled out. If that happens too much in this one, we're in trouble.

Mahomes missed two games and played injured. He's clearly a more physically talented QB than Garoppolo, and it's not just his mobility and crazy throws. He is an incredibly talented passer, and routinely makes throws that Garoppolo can't. And yes, we know how many of Garoppolo's INTs were tipped. We - or at least I - don't know how many of Mahomes' were, but he only threw five. I also know, at least generally, how many balls Garoppolo threw right to defenders that were dropped. I can't speak to that for Mahomes, but for Garoppolo, it's concerning. He could have easily had five or six more INTs. And Mahomes has been lights out in the playoffs, throwing for eight TDs and no INTs. I won't knock Garoppolo for his playoff stats given how we've won, but Mahomes is playing more like the 2018 version than the 2019 version. Yes, we have a better defense than the Titans or Texans, but we're still vulnerable to an offense like the Chiefs'.

And our offense isn't nearly as fast as the Chiefs, at least where it counts. We've got speed, but a lot of it is concentrated at the RB position (Mostert, Coleman, and Breida all 4.38-39; 93rd precentile), where it is harder to utilize than at WR. Not to mention KC also has speed at RB, where Damien Williams ran 4.45 (83%). Kittle is very fast for a TE (4.52, 94th percentile), but he's not elite relative to other positions and Kelce is also relatively fast for the position (4.61, 87th percentile). Our WRs have solid speed, but with Goodwin out, we don't have a true burner. Sanders ran a 4.41 (87%), but is likely slower now at 32. Samuel ran a 4.48 (64%). Bourne ran a slow 4.68 (5%). For the Chiefs, Hill ran a 4.29 (98%) and Hardman ran a 4.33 (95%). Watkins ran a 4.43 (76%). that speed at the WR position - combined with a QB who excels throwing deep - allows them to threaten from anywhere on the field in a way that we simply cannot match.

I like our chances fine in this one, but I'm worried about their offense, and I think anyone who isn't is a fool.

Of course their offense worries me, I'm just saying not to sell ourselves short.

yes mahomes has been lights out in the playoffs, but he was also against two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL (24th and 29th. Let's give ourselves some credit, our pass D gave up the least yards per game in the NFL. We played some great QBs and came out with wins.

Don't underestimate what our run game can do for us in terms of time of possession either. To win we need to keep the ball out of mahomes hands. 49ers had the 3rd best TOP in the NFL, chiefs are 11th. Niners have 2nd best running offense, Chiefs have the 26th ranked run D. It's not going to be mahomes vs Jimmy, player vs player, its team vs team and how they produce as a unit, and we have match ups that go in our favor.

Since I mentioned the 24th and 29th ranked pass Ds, i wanted to see how Jimmy and Mahomes performed against top 10 Pass Defenses based on yards per game allowed. Mahomes played more top 10 teams than Jimmy, and averages i included should obviously be taken with a grain of salt, all things considered. but just for the hell of it i wanted to see what it looked like. The Ravens game stands out for Mahomes, the others aren't something we can't survive If our pass D plays to its number 1 rank potential.

I think scoring D is more significant than yards, though that will inevitably include some defensive TDs against and turnovers in FG range. Obviously there's a lot of overlap in yards and points, but in terms of top-10 scoring Ds, Mahomes played Baltimore (3), Denver (10), NE (1), and Chicago (4). It doesn't add all that much to this discussion, but Denver comes in and SD (14th) goes out. Mahomes got injured in the first Denver game, but only after shredding them for 10 of 11 for 76 yards and a TD while leading three scoring drives in three tries; he got injured gaining a first-and-goal that resulted in a FG. He had a great game in the second as he went 27 for 34 for 340 yards, two TDs, one INT, and a 90.7 QBR. It's worth noting that the Titans rank 12th in this formulation, and Mahomes had almost 750 yards for six passing TDs, one rushing TD, and no turnovers in two games against them.

Looking at recent history is more telling than looking at the entire season for Mahomes, particularly given the injury. And he has been just about perfect through two playoff games. That continues a recent trend. He's had a QBR of 88.5 or higher in four of his last five games. He only had two games in that range in his MVP season. Garoppolo has only had one game above 88.5 this year, and that was against AZ (worst in yards allowed, fourth-worst in points allowed, second-worst in passing yards and TDs).

I'll also note that passer rating disproportionately rewards completion percentage, which will benefit Garoppolo because he doesn't throw downfield as much.

[CrimsonCrew]

Hate to say it, but if Coleman was healthy against the Packers, I think we only run for 185-odd yards. He had a good game against the Vikings, but he's still our third-best RB IMO.

agree, but we'll need him to keep the rotation fresh.

I don't know. Mostert looked just fine with 28 carries. And I'd rather have Breida getting the other carries, and Wilson in the red zone.

[wco81]

Regardless of which back, just hang on to the ball.

I think Breida lost one trying to get a couple extra yards.

with touches being split up, some backs may be trying to do too much when they get the ball.

[CrimsonCrew]

Regardless of which back, just hang on to the ball.

I think Breida lost one trying to get a couple extra yards.

with touches being split up, some backs may be trying to do too much when they get the ball.

Yeah, Breida fumbled on that fourth and short as we were trying to close out the Vikings. It was bad, but it felt like he was pressing because he hadn't gotten on the field much. Against Atlanta, he lost what I consider a BS one where forward progress should have been called a full second before he fumbled. The other one wasn't "lost," but I can't recall it. It's a bit of a concern but the dude has four fumbles in 448 touches. Coleman has seven in 778 touches, so it's a comparable rate (Breida actually a bit better). Mostert is arguably the biggest fumbling concern by far, with five fumbles in 198 touches. Though he's been secure with the ball lately.

[wco81]

He's going to be a free agent, so he wants to put on some good tape.

I think the writing is on the wall that the 49ers can't really retain him, especially when Mostert is so productive.

They don't even use Wilson on short yardage any more ever since he blew that blitz pickup in the Ravens game which led to a fumble that the Ravens converted for their first score.

[dr3am]

Cuter?.... Wait do we have a lot of female users on this board??

Btw I don’t want Breida playing at all. Every time he runs I fear of him fumbling... Which he never lets me down with SmH.

[NinerSickness]

Cuter?.... Wait do we have a lot of female users on this board??

Jimmy is the most handsome QB in the NFL.

[arich35]

Cuter?.... Wait do we have a lot of female users on this board??

Jimmy is the most handsome QB in the NFL.

I have to hear it from my wife and even my mother.

[Bingo_AlphaMan]

Hate to say it, but if Coleman was healthy against the Packers, I think we only run for 185-odd yards. He had a good game against the Vikings, but he's still our third-best RB IMO.

agree, but we'll need him to keep the rotation fresh.

I don't know. Mostert looked just fine with 28 carries. And I'd rather have Breida getting the other carries, and Wilson in the red zone.

Wilson is probably our best short yardage back.

[Jikkle]

Greenlaw is full go. That's great to hear. Alexander in a no-contact jersey, which I think is consistent with how he's been handled lately. Tartt also in a no-contact jersey. That's something to monitor. We definitely need Tartt out there. The back end of this D looked shaky without him, particularly against TEs.

His ribs definitely aren't 100% but I don't doubt he'll be good to go for the game. I think the main concern is because they aren't 100% he's at risk of taking a shot and getting knocked out of the game.

I'm more interested in what they'll do with Ford. I know he'll play obviously but I wonder if he'll get the full green light considering this is the Super Bowl and there is no next week to worry about.

Considering how much he has an impact on the pass rush hopefully that hamstring is feeling good by game time.

[Bald Bull]

Cuter?.... Wait do we have a lot of female users on this board??

Btw I don’t want Breida playing at all. Every time he runs I fear of him fumbling... Which he never lets me down with SmH.

Nope, I'm a hairy fat man.

[CrimsonCrew]

Cuter?.... Wait do we have a lot of female users on this board??

Btw I don’t want Breida playing at all. Every time he runs I fear of him fumbling... Which he never lets me down with SmH.

Deebo Samuel has fumbled twice in 71 touches, and yet we keep giving him the ball. Breida doesn't have a bad history of fumbling. He had a couple fumbles closely grouped. We should move on and continue to give him a shot. Mostert, on the other hand, does have a history of fumbling, he just hasn't fumbled of late (though he fumbled against Atlanta, which wasn't all that long ago). There's really no reason to be giving one of them the ball and not the other.

[CrimsonCrew]

He's going to be a free agent, so he wants to put on some good tape.

I think the writing is on the wall that the 49ers can't really retain him, especially when Mostert is so productive.

They don't even use Wilson on short yardage any more ever since he blew that blitz pickup in the Ravens game which led to a fumble that the Ravens converted for their first score.

Breida is a restricted FA, so we can definitely keep him if we want to. To be sure of keeping him, we'd probably have to pay Breida $3.3 million (second-round tender). I'd much rather have Breida for that price than Coleman for $5 million. Or we can tender Breida at just over $2 million and hope that another team doesn't sign him away. Either way, I'd be pretty surprised if he doesn't get a tender at all.

[Bingo_AlphaMan]

Cuter?.... Wait do we have a lot of female users on this board??

Btw I don’t want Breida playing at all. Every time he runs I fear of him fumbling... Which he never lets me down with SmH.

Deebo Samuel has fumbled twice in 71 touches, and yet we keep giving him the ball. Breida doesn't have a bad history of fumbling. He had a couple fumbles closely grouped. We should move on and continue to give him a shot. Mostert, on the other hand, does have a history of fumbling, he just hasn't fumbled of late (though he fumbled against Atlanta, which wasn't all that long ago). There's really no reason to be giving one of them the ball and not the other.

Crims you make a lot of sense, but you failed to acknowledge that other than the fumble issue, it appears as though he lost his confidence. He’s been very unproductive when given an opportunity. He hits the hole in a hurry and gets nowhere

[CrimsonCrew]

Cuter?.... Wait do we have a lot of female users on this board??

Btw I don’t want Breida playing at all. Every time he runs I fear of him fumbling... Which he never lets me down with SmH.

Deebo Samuel has fumbled twice in 71 touches, and yet we keep giving him the ball. Breida doesn't have a bad history of fumbling. He had a couple fumbles closely grouped. We should move on and continue to give him a shot. Mostert, on the other hand, does have a history of fumbling, he just hasn't fumbled of late (though he fumbled against Atlanta, which wasn't all that long ago). There's really no reason to be giving one of them the ball and not the other.

Crims you make a lot of sense, but you failed to acknowledge that other than the fumble issue, it appears as though he lost his confidence. He’s been very unproductive when given an opportunity. He hits the hole in a hurry and gets nowhere

There appears to be an element of that. There's no doubt that there can be an element of guys pressing when they want to prove something and either making mistakes (fumbling), or in the case of a scheme that requires patience and vision, not allowing gaps to open. That said, Breida hasn't been given much of a shot of late.

Since missing three games with injury, he's had 23 carries and three receptions over six games. He hasn't really been able to get into a rhythm. He played well against the Saints in his first game back from injury, with 54 carries on six touches; even without his 28-yard run, he averaged over five yards per carry. He had the two fumbles the following week and has been persona non grata since. But he's still been okay when he's had a legitimate shot. He was sprinkled into the Seattle game and had carries of nine yards on 2nd and 10 and six yards on 1st and 10, though he also had two on a 2nd and 10 and -1 on 2nd and 4. By far his most carries came against the Vikings, where he had eight, but six of those came on the final two drives when we were trying to kill clock and they were selling out to stop the run. It's not surprising he wasn't successful there.

Perhaps more to the point, though, is that we have stuck with Coleman despite tremendous struggles. From week nine on, Coleman averaged 1.9 YPC on 12 rushes against AZ, 4.4 yards on nine carries against Seattle (2.25 YPC without his longest run), 1.2 YPC on 12 carries against AZ, 3.5 YPC on 11 carries against GB, 1.2 YPC on five carries against Baltimore, 2.0 YPC on three against NO, 10.0 on four carries against ATL (1.0 without his longest), 6.6 on five carries against LA, and 2.2 on five carries against SEA. He averaged 4.0 YPC for the season in a very run-friendly system (Breida averaged 5.1 and Mostert 5.6), and if you take out his 105 yards on 11 carries in a 51-13 romp against Carolina, he only averaged 3.5 YPC. Coleman was almost universally terrible with the exception of one or two decent runs until the Minnesota game. Breida is the better player IMO, and appears to be healthy. I'd rather see what he can do in the SB, and I'd certainly rather keep him longterm.

[Bingo_AlphaMan]

His speed is definitely needed to keep up with either Damien Willians or Travis Kelce:


KWON ALEXANDER
LB, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

49ers LB Kwon Alexander (pectoral) was limited in practice Thursday.

Alexander is expected to play in the Super Bowl and should see even more reps than he did last weekend against the Packers when he played 32% of the defensive snaps. Alexander will be tested in two Sundays with Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and company rolling into Miami. Alexander, PFF's No. 9 LB in coverage, is an underrated piece of this game.
SOURCE: Cam Inman on Twitter

Jan 23, 2020, 6:20 PM ET

[dr3am]

Here’s a stat that can make us smile while the whole media is riding the Chiefs nuts... All previous teams that finished the season with more than 55 sacks have won the Super Bowl...

[CrimsonCrew]

Here’s a stat that can make us smile while the whole media is riding the Chiefs nuts... All previous teams that finished the season with more than 55 sacks have won the Super Bowl...

We only had 48 sacks.

[Samurai]

Tevin Coleman went through a full practice without wearing the blue non-contact jersey. Sounds like he will continue to practice next week and should be able to play. If so, should we play him if he is at maybe 80-90%? Or should we use Breida to spell Mostert and go with Wilson as our third RB? Wilson gives us a short-yardage back that the other RB's don't quite provide.