49ers to give Kyle Shanahan new 6-year contract

[wco81]

I’ve seen enough. 49ers under Kyle have already hit their ceiling.

Team is going to have to eat their contracts, Lynch too.

Get someone who can evaluate talent properly.

The misses with the high draft picks are glaring now, hurting the team.

They have to get rid of these two.

They probably won’t realize it for another season or two.

[dr3am]

Injuries & Jimmy G have hurt this team. Yes they’ve had some draft misses but for the most part they also had some great ones in Kittle, Bosa, Deebo, Aiyuk, etc.

They made a poop decision together trading for & paying Jimmy G. I’ve seen enough of that guy, he’s not our franchise QB & a good one at that.

[wco81]

I don't know that Aikuk is going to hit. Too early to say.

Same thing for Kinlaw.

But the hits they've had, they showed up in their rookie season and the ones they missed, they didn't.

AJ Brown looks more like a player. So does Metcalf.

Even if Aiyuk hits, they spent so much draft capital for misses.

In any event, looks like they will have a shot at another top 10 pick again.

I shudder to think about giving them another draft.

[Pattersonca65]

I think dumping Shanahan this year is a bit premature one season removed from a super bowl. No one thought before last season the 49ers were going to make the Super Bowl. Just a bad season with all the injuries. Lucky for all of us long time fans Bill Walsh decided not to quit after going 3-6 following the Super Bowl. Not saying KS is Bill Walsh but these seasons do happen.

[wco81]

Sure but if that was their ceiling under Shanahan then no point on continuing with him. He's now lost two SBs after having 4th quarter leads. Not enough sample size to say it's a definitive pattern but I don't think we will see him in another SB with the 49ers -- hope I'm wrong.

I don't expect the team or most of the fans to agree but I think in another year or two, more fans will come around.

[Dodub]

When you have half the team on the IR and still have a .500 record, but fans still call for your job....

[arich35]

Wait people want Shanahan gone? Please tell me who is out there that would be better. He is considered a top 7-10 coach in the league. If not better

[dr3am]

When you have half the team on the IR and still have a .500 record, but fans still call for your job....

It’s hilarious. Folks even called for his head over Jimmy G smh.

[wco81]

I called for his head.

Yeah because the team isn't going to reach any higher than last year. This is his 4th season, let's mark it now.

I posted this conclusion after watching Pettis fumble. Just hit home all the draft day blunders he and Lynch have made, trading up for players who have produced NOTHING. Probably a little peeved in the moment.

Is the team going to wait 5 years, which is what his extension runs through, for a SB title?

He will have had 8 or 9 seasons by then.

What a disaster it would be, to be stuck with braintrust who keep missing in the draft, makes dubious play calls.

[dr3am]

ridiculous post... name 7 coaches better, we’ll wait...

How long did it take Andy Reid to win a Super Bowl again? Ain’t he considered the best play caller in the league right now?...

[Pattersonca65]

No one thought Shanahan was going to make it to the Super Bowl. And Shanahan took over one of the worst dumpster fires in the league. Had to remake almost the entire roster. Things went bad this year. How many coaches have never even made it to a super bowl? Even good coaches. Firing a head coach right after a super bowl loss is premature. Not sure any team would do better with this level of injuries. No longer the same team.

[wco81]

I'm not saying it will happen this year.

Not with 5 years left on his deal.

I'm just saying he won't meet the expectations of the ownership or the fans, which is at least one title.

Coaches who get their teams to the playoffs several times are fired all the time for not winning it all. Or else Reid would have remained in Philly.

They've had some high prime drafting positions. Of course a lot of the success of last year were from some key players drafted by the previous regime, such as Buckner and Armstead who had a career year.

I know I'm calling it early. I just think being one of the best play callers in the league obviously isn't enough, with the poor player personnel decisions.

Eventually the fan base and the ownership will conclude this coach and GM isn't going to reach their goals.

But remember I called it first.

[Dodub]

I’m sure that the Chiefs are glad that the front office didn’t listen to fans when they said these same things about him.

Dear lord....

[CrimsonCrew]

Finally getting around to addressing this FO's personnel management. As I said in the game thread, I've been (almost) as vocal as any in criticizing the draft picks and FA pickups. But it's hard to complain about the overall result. Let's review position-by-position, looking primarily at the talent that we have and not the blown picks/pickups (I'll do that in another post).

QB: This is actually one of the spots that's most open to criticism. They passed on Mahomes and Watson in their first draft, used the pick on an outright bust, and decided to hand out a long-term contract to Garoppolo. That said, Garoppolo hasn't been the same guy since the ACL tear. It's hard to determine what he could have been without that.

RB: Arguably their strongest area. They've hit on player after player, including numerous undrafted guys or FA castoffs. Yes, the guy they traded up to draft in 2017 didn't pan out, but everything else they've touched has turned to gold. I think they grossly overpaid for Juszczyk, but he's been very valuable to the team.

WR: Aiyuk and Samuel look like legit starters and great complements to one another. Bourne came out of nowhere and has been a tolerable third option. Hurd's injuries limited some of the success for this position, and we're still thin at the spot despite throwing a ton of resources there. The Pettis pick stings, and Samuel may not be as good as the elite players who were taken after him, but he hasn't had the same QB play - or health this season.

TE: Absolutely nailed it.

OT: McGlinchey has been very up and down, but he was a huge part of our running game success during our SB run, and his pass blocking has been improving lately. The trade for Williams was a stroke of genius.

OG: The Tomlinson trade looks really good in hindsight, even though he's been a bit inconsistent, but the RG spot has been a constant problem. I can forgive it to an extent as you can't have great talent everywhere, and guard is one of the better places not to spend money or draft capital, but there's a strong argument that Person cost them the SB.

C: Tough to fully evaluate given Richburg's injuries. Granted he had a pretty extensive injury history coming in. He's also been inconsistent when on the field. But Garland played really well down the stretch last year, and I think a decent chunk of our OL problems this year come from these two guys never really being healthy.

DE: Bosa was a gimme, but they didn't screw it up. Armstead, even underperforming, is at least a solid base end (73.6 grade from PFF this season). And Blair was a very solid rotational guy prior to the injury. The Ford acquisition looks pretty bad in hindsight, but when he's been right, he's been a difference maker. I have repeatedly questioned our training staff, both in terms of evaluating incoming players (Richburg, Ford, Street, arguably Hurd), and I think some of that has to land on the FO at this point, but it's also hard to fault them too much for guys being unable to stay healthy.

DT: DJ Jones is a really good NT, and Armstead gets reps inside. Kinlaw is very much a work in progress, but he's already a decent run stopper with upside as a pass rusher. Givens is a talented player who came out of nowhere. They've been good finding production along the interior.

LB: Warner has been tremendous, and Greenlaw has also been a pleasant surprise. They've blown their big FA contracts and high draft picks at this spot (though Foster was more off-the-field than on), but they still have a very good unit.

CB: Injuries decimated this unit, and I've been extremely outspoken about addressing it in the draft, but at the end of the day, if we had a healthy Sherman, Mosely, Verrett, Williams, and Witherspoon, we'd be near the top of the league in this position group. Granted they're almost all injured.

S: Ward and Tartt aren't spectacular, but they're both good, solid players who fit the scheme pretty well. Moore appears to be waiting in the wings and obviously has talent.

At the end of the day, with full health, this is one of the most talented rosters in football. However they've gone about it - and I think fans routinely overestimate the success that NFL FOs have in drafting and otherwise acquiring players - I don't think you can argue with the results. It's certainly not a reason to move on from them, especially when considering that Shanahan has one of the best offensive minds in the game.

[CrimsonCrew]

To review high draft picks and quality late-round picks/UDFA quickly:

2017(1a): Thomas. Total bust of a pick. The trade back salvaged it a little, but especially when you consider the QBs they passed on to draft a guy who hasn't even developed into a starter, and who they horribly misused for about a year and a half...doesn't get much worse than this one.

2017(1b): Foster. Another disaster. Looked like a potential difference maker as a rookie, but never got his head on straight, and his play fell off in his second year. I'd argue he was worth the risk where we took him, but he was always a risk and they knew it or should have.

2017(3a): Witherspoon. Mixed bag. He's had his moments, but ultimately he's not good. And they passed on a guy like Shaquill Griffin to take him. Ultimately I'm going to consider him a miss.

2017(3b): Beathard: Always a head-scratcher. I but Kyle some slack because it's a QB, and if you like one, you go get him. But Beathard has never looked like he belonged on an NFL field with the possible exception of the end of the Philly game.

2017(5): Kittle. Amazing pick that almost salvages this otherwise awful draft.

2017(6): DJ Jones. Great value pick on a guy who has become a very solid starter. I think there's an argument that his absence also contributed more than most realized to our SB loss.

2017(UDFA): Bourne. A great pickup as a UDFA. Bourne hasn't been great, and his mental lapses kill me at times, but he's developed into a very sound third receiver. Great value for an undrafted guy.

2017(UDFA): Mullens. Not a starter, but a solid backup out of a UDFA. That's alright in my book.

2017(UDFA): Breida. Never truly took off, but had/has some legit talent, and netted us a fifth-round pick in a trade.

2018(1): McGlinchey. Mixed bag again. He's been super inconsistent, especially as a pass blocker. But I think there's a fair argument that we don't get to the super bowl without his run blocking.

2018(2): Pettis. Disaster. Always hated this one, but thought we might have something after his rookie year. Just a head case who doesn't seem cut out to play in the league. And we traded up for him.

2018(3a): Warner. Great pick. He's probably our best player on either side of the ball this season.

2018(3b): Moore. Jury is still a little out as Ward was finally able to stay healthy. I think Moore could already be a good FS if we started him out at that spot and were still playing him there, but there just isn't enough of a sample size. Certainly not a bust for a very late third rounder, though.

2018(UDFA): Mosely. Not a top CB, but he's pretty darn solid and has outplayed Witherspoon fairly easily. Great pickup as a UDFA, and could be a long-term starter in the league. Another guy who was a huge part of our SB run.

2018(UDFA): Dwelley. Not a spectacular guy by any means, but he's developed into a really nice role player who can step in when Kittle goes down and give us something at the position.

2019(1): Bosa. An easy one, but still a great pick. The guy should be a perennial pro bowler and defensive POY candidate.

2019(2): Samuel. Looks like a very solid pick. I don't love that we took him where we did, or over AJ Brown, but at the end of the day, he's performed and was a huge part of our SB run.

2019(3): Hurd. Jury totally out here. He had injury issues in college, so I think some of this falls on the FO, but he's also had some fluky stuff, including the ACL this year. The one glimpse we got of him looked really good, so it's frustrating that's all we got.

2019(5): Greenlaw. A really pleasant surprise. I don;'t know that he'll ever be an elite player, but smart, solid athleticism, good instincts. Great pick for the fifth round.

2019(UDFA): Givens. A very solid depth/rotational player.

2019(UDFA): Al-Shair. Not a great player at this point, but solid enough that we could dump Alexander's contract. He's still getting a feel for the game, and there is some upside with him.

So in the first round, out of four picks, you've got two misses, a home run, and a decent pick. In the first three rounds in general, out of eleven picks, you've got five misses (all but one in their first draft, incidentally), an incomplete, two elite players, one good player, and a couple solid players. Overall, that's not a terrible record in a draft, particularly as they appear to be doing better the more they draft.

But an area where they have really helped themselves, and which can't be overlooked, is their later-round picks. I view any pick in round four or later as basically gravy. If you find a solid backup, okay. If you find a starter, great. And finding an impact player is a huge bonus. They have turned up an impact player, a number of solid-to-good starters, and multiple depth pieces in these areas. The team that went to the SB had five players who were drafted in the 5th round or later, or undrafted altogether, start at some point that year for reasons other than injury. That is a really good return on investment, and has offset some of the early round misses.

There's still lots of room to improve. The trading up for specific players drives me crazy. It hurt us with Pettis, kind of hurt us with Samuel (should have traded back), and although I'm already prepared to consider Aiyuk a hit, cost us there, too. But their performance is nowhere near so bad as to require removal less than a year past a SB run.

[Yoshi]

Finally getting around to addressing this FO's personnel management. As I said in the game thread, I've been (almost) as vocal as any in criticizing the draft picks and FA pickups. But it's hard to complain about the overall result. Let's review position-by-position, looking primarily at the talent that we have and not the blown picks/pickups (I'll do that in another post).

QB: This is actually one of the spots that's most open to criticism. They passed on Mahomes and Watson in their first draft, used the pick on an outright bust, and decided to hand out a long-term contract to Garoppolo. That said, Garoppolo hasn't been the same guy since the ACL tear. It's hard to determine what he could have been without that.

RB: Arguably their strongest area. They've hit on player after player, including numerous undrafted guys or FA castoffs. Yes, the guy they traded up to draft in 2017 didn't pan out, but everything else they've touched has turned to gold. I think they grossly overpaid for Juszczyk, but he's been very valuable to the team.

WR: Aiyuk and Samuel look like legit starters and great complements to one another. Bourne came out of nowhere and has been a tolerable third option. Hurd's injuries limited some of the success for this position, and we're still thin at the spot despite throwing a ton of resources there. The Pettis pick stings, and Samuel may not be as good as the elite players who were taken after him, but he hasn't had the same QB play - or health this season.

TE: Absolutely nailed it.

OT: McGlinchey has been very up and down, but he was a huge part of our running game success during our SB run, and his pass blocking has been improving lately. The trade for Williams was a stroke of genius.

OG: The Tomlinson trade looks really good in hindsight, even though he's been a bit inconsistent, but the RG spot has been a constant problem. I can forgive it to an extent as you can't have great talent everywhere, and guard is one of the better places not to spend money or draft capital, but there's a strong argument that Person cost them the SB.

C: Tough to fully evaluate given Richburg's injuries. Granted he had a pretty extensive injury history coming in. He's also been inconsistent when on the field. But Garland played really well down the stretch last year, and I think a decent chunk of our OL problems this year come from these two guys never really being healthy.

DE: Bosa was a gimme, but they didn't screw it up. Armstead, even underperforming, is at least a solid base end (73.6 grade from PFF this season). And Blair was a very solid rotational guy prior to the injury. The Ford acquisition looks pretty bad in hindsight, but when he's been right, he's been a difference maker. I have repeatedly questioned our training staff, both in terms of evaluating incoming players (Richburg, Ford, Street, arguably Hurd), and I think some of that has to land on the FO at this point, but it's also hard to fault them too much for guys being unable to stay healthy.

DT: DJ Jones is a really good NT, and Armstead gets reps inside. Kinlaw is very much a work in progress, but he's already a decent run stopper with upside as a pass rusher. Givens is a talented player who came out of nowhere. They've been good finding production along the interior.

LB: Warner has been tremendous, and Greenlaw has also been a pleasant surprise. They've blown their big FA contracts and high draft picks at this spot (though Foster was more off-the-field than on), but they still have a very good unit.

CB: Injuries decimated this unit, and I've been extremely outspoken about addressing it in the draft, but at the end of the day, if we had a healthy Sherman, Mosely, Verrett, Williams, and Witherspoon, we'd be near the top of the league in this position group. Granted they're almost all injured.

S: Ward and Tartt aren't spectacular, but they're both good, solid players who fit the scheme pretty well. Moore appears to be waiting in the wings and obviously has talent.

At the end of the day, with full health, this is one of the most talented rosters in football. However they've gone about it - and I think fans routinely overestimate the success that NFL FOs have in drafting and otherwise acquiring players - I don't think you can argue with the results. It's certainly not a reason to move on from them, especially when considering that Shanahan has one of the best offensive minds in the game.

I don't know, I don't think too highly of McGlinchey as he still is not the pass blocker I thought he'd be, especially being the number 9 overall pick. I would lean towards not giving him that 5th year extension and perhaps looking elsewhere to replace him.

As far as the OL is concerned, the Niners need to start investing picks in fixing both the C and G positions, as all of these DL taken early have taken it's toll in other areas.

As far as CB is concerned, it's obvious Sherm won't come back with the price line, if at all. Verrett is hit or miss with his injury history, although he has played outstanding this season. Moseley and K'Waun I hope are both on the team next year. Depending on how the Niners allocate their money and who they can sign, they may not need to make a CB a high priority in next year's draft.

Also, we did absolutely nail the TE but the concern I have now is Kittle's longevity. I hate to say this, but being in the medical profession and having worked with patients who've had many injuries, I don't know how long Kittle will last and his price tag after that extension can be hampering.

More to come...

[wco81]

McGlinchey got pancaked by a LB or DB on a blitz too.

Another thing that ticked me off.

[CrimsonCrew]

I wanted to look at a couple of the better teams in the league and their draft and FA success over the past few years by way of comparison. I haven't looked into this, but I think the common conception among fans - even very passionate fans - is that the top organizations hit on every first round pick, when in fact that just isn't the case, and finding two starters in any given draft is typically a pretty good haul. I'm just picking a few teams at random; I genuinely have no idea what this will show, other than my general sense of draft hits and misses.

Chiefs:
2017: 1) QB Mahomes, 2) DE Kpassagnon, 3) RB Hunt; Obviously Mahomes was a grand slam and completely transformed the franchise. Kpassagnon is a starting DE, but he's only okay. Hunt would have been a great pick, but is no longer on the team due to the off-field issues.
2018: 2) DE Speaks, 3a) DT Nnadi, 3b) LB O'Daniel. Speaks has already been waived. Nnadi starts for them, and is a solid player. O'Daniel is a third-stringer.
2019: 2a) WR Hardman, 2b) S Thornhill, 3) DT Saunders. Hardman has flashed at times, but overall would have to be considered a disappointment. Thornhill has been a decent starting safety, but nothing to write home about to date (though he was injured last year and may still be rounding back into form). And Saunders has barely played.

So out of nine high picks, the Chiefs had one amazing pick, three that were solid, and four that were disappointments or busts.

Seahawks:
2017: 2a) DT McDowell, 2b) OL Pocic, 3a) CB Griffin, 3b) S Hill, 3c) DT Jones, 3d) WR Darboh. McDowell was a huge bust, though he was hurt in that ATV accident, so hard to put that on the team. Pocic has been a mediocre interior OL who you'd like to upgrade. Griffin was a great pick for them; still not sure how he fell so far. Hill has dealt with some injuries, but hasn't been very good. Jones was released. Same with Darboh.
2018: 1) RB Penny, 3) DT Green. Penny has been a major disappointment as a first-round RB, even when healthy. Green has been a non-factor.
2019: 1) DE Collier, 2a) S Blair, 2b) WR Metcalf, 3) LB Barton. Collier starts, but has been disappointing for a first rounder. Blair has been bad so far. Metcalf has been incredible. Barton hasn't been good, but is the primary backup at LB.

Seattle might not have been the best comparison, given their penchant for trading back and "reach." But they're arguably the best NFC team, and their recent draft history is far from great. In twelve picks, they have two really good picks in Griffin and Metcalf. They have one or two decent picks, but a lot of their guys are outright busts or, if they are playing, are underperforming and you're probably looking to upgrade them.

Buccaneers:
2017: 1) TE Howard, 2) S Evans, 3a) WR Godwin, 3b) LB Beckwith. Howard hasn't lived up to his draft spot. Evans hasn't shown anything. Godwin has been excellent (striking how many WRs are good value). And I don't think Beckwith is still with the team.
2018: 1) DT Vea, 2a) RB Jones, 2b) CB Stewart, 2c) CB Davis, 3) OG Cappa. Vea has been very good, but I think there's a legitimate question as to whether a run-stopping DT can ever be worth the pick they spent on him. Jones has been up-and-down. For a fairly high RB, overall I've got to say he's a disappointment. Stewart was cut. Davis has been good. Cappa moved from tackle to guard and has been only okay.
2019: 1) LB White, 2) CB Murphy-Bunting, 3a) CB Dean, 3b) S Edwards. White has started, but he's been something of a disappointment, especially given where they picked him. Same goes for Murphy-Bunting. Oddly, Dean has been the more effective player, but plays behind Murphy-Bunting. Edwards is backing up a rookie.

Thirteen players overall. No real blockbusters, other than maybe Godwin. They've got a number of good players at less important positions, and underperforming starters, but a lot of these guys are starting on what is a very good defense, so they get a fair bit of credit for that (as the Niners did last year). Probably five guys who would fall in or near the bust category.

[Cactus Jack]

Seattle might not have been the best comparison, given their penchant for trading back and "reach." But they're arguably the best NFC team, and their recent draft history is far from great. In twelve picks, they have two really good picks in Griffin and Metcalf. They have one or two decent picks, but a lot of their guys are outright busts or, if they are playing, are underperforming and you're probably looking to upgrade them.

Seahawks:
2017: 2a) DT McDowell, 2b) OL Pocic, 3a) CB Griffin, 3b) S Hill, 3c) DT Jones, 3d) WR Darboh. McDowell was a huge bust, though he was hurt in that ATV accident, so hard to put that on the team. Pocic has been a mediocre interior OL who you'd like to upgrade. Griffin was a great pick for them; still not sure how he fell so far. Hill has dealt with some injuries, but hasn't been very good. Jones was released. Same with Darboh.

Yes, McDowell was a huge miss. Got hurt (ATV). Guy was picked shortly after Reuben Foster. Both we're obviously massive flops. McDowell due to injury however.

Pocic was a backup his first two years, playing behind Justin Britt & others. But is now the starting center. Solid starter, but not great.

Griffin made the Pro Bowl last season. Has been solid.

Chris Carson was taken in the 7th Round. David Moore (3rd WR) was also taken late.

Overall: McDowell getting hurt significantly altered that draft class. But they also got a few gems later on in Griffin, Carson & Moore to make up for it.

2018: 1) RB Penny, 3) DT Green. Penny has been a major disappointment as a first-round RB, even when healthy. Green has been a non-factor.

Penny was a reach. The team should have taken Chubb instead. He's been banged up for the most part & suffered an ACL injury last season. Still isn't back yet.

Will Dissly was taken in the 4th round. Good player when healthy.

Shaquem Griffin is a part time player/mainly on special teams.

Michael Dickson is a very good Punter. But the class is pretty lackluster for the most part.

2019: 1) DE Collier, 2a) S Blair, 2b) WR Metcalf, 3) LB Barton. Collier starts, but has been disappointing for a first rounder. Blair has been bad so far. Metcalf has been incredible. Barton hasn't been good, but is the primary backup at LB.

Metcalf has been the one stand-out.

Collier is a starter, but a disappointment.

Blair has a ton of potential but has been hurt (ACL).

Ugo Amadi is the starting Nickle. But otherwise, it's mostly backups.

[wco81]

Moore suspended 6 games for PEDs.