2021 49ers offseason

[wco81]

I mean, it didn't seem likely they would keep Sherman anyways.

[CrimsonCrew]

I realize this isn't drumming up a whole lot of conversation, but it's a down time of the year. Another interesting angle on this: Sherman represents himself, so Gruden's invitation that they talk off the air is that much worse. He's talking to the player and the agent.

Crims this is awful and blatant. The Raiders had better be fined and lose a draft pick. I just wish they’d give that pick to the team that holds the rights to the player

There's a chance they'd do something like that. When the Niners tampered with Lance Briggs (what a trainwreck that was; if you're going to tamper, at least get the guy), they swapped third-round picks with the Bears (five-spot difference). Not sure if these has been that sort of punishment lately, but it makes sense, and it would be even more of a deterrent than just losing picks, as you'd be actively helping an opponent instead of just hurting yourself.

Don't have time to get into the QBs right now, but I'll try to respond later.

[thesack12]

Yeah, obvious tampering is obvious. It really can't get much more blatant than that, and there is obviously tangible proof with recordings/transcripts of the radio show.

Vegas should get hit with some form of punishment. However, short of some kind of compensation being awarded to the team it doesn't really effect anything. Sherman has been destined to leave for awhile now, and if he goes to Vegas they are in the other conference and 9ers play the AFC south next season. So his insider knowledge of the 49ers isn't really a factor. Don't read that as me saying, because it might not effect a player's current team, then tampering is ok. I'm not saying that, just referencing that in this particular case, I really don't see much of an adverse effect.

[CrimsonCrew]

The only potential negative would be losing Sherman, but Sherman is already gone. He knows it and the team knows it. Still, if the league has rules, they need to enforce them, and I don't see how they can't come down hard on the Raiders for this.

I don't think they have given draft compensation to the "victim" team in some time (possibly since we tampered with Briggs), but a guy can dream.... I will say, taking a team's picks and giving them to another team would sting for the punished team that much more than just losing the pick. And again, this is as blatant as it gets. The league dinged Andy Reid and the Chiefs pretty hard when he spoke to Maclin during the legal tampering period. This is a month-and-a-half before FA, we don't even know what the cap is yet, and the player acts as his agent. If I'm the Niners, I'm screaming foul and forcing the league's hand. It's hard to imagine a worse example of tampering.

[CrimsonCrew]

It is technically possible to give the Niners a pick from the Raider, or force a swap of picks for a higher spot. Here's the applicable section of the tampering rules:

(c) Specific Penalties. Any violation of this Anti-tampering Policy will subject the involved
club and/or person to severe disciplinary action by the Commissioner. In such cases, in
addition to all other penalties provided in the Constitution and Bylaws, the Commissioner
may award or transfer a selection choice or choices and/or deprive the offending club of
a selection choice or choices, and/or may fine the offending club and/or may fine or
suspend with or without pay any involved individuals as appropriate. The League office
will promulgate to all clubs the details of any penalties imposed for tampering.

Did a little more research, and in 2011, the Lions had to swap 140 to the Chiefs for 154 for tampering with Jarrad Davis. That and the Niners' penalty are the only examples of pick swapping I'm aware of, and I can't find any examples of just giving the victimized team a pick outright, but I believe that would be permissible under the "award...a selection choice" language. Again, if ever there was a case to make an example out of a coach/team, this is it.

[wco81]

Have the 49ers filed an official complaint?

[CrimsonCrew]

Crims, here are some viable options at QB. Let me know what you think of each:

Carr, Wentz, Watson, Rodgers, Winston, Darnold.

My thoughts:

Carr - Could be a decent upgrade due to his deep ball being better than Jimmy. Neither is extremely mobile. It would have to be a great bargain for us.

Wentz - If he returns to his potential, which I think Kyle could pull off, he’d be completely worth it. Right now his contract scares me a bit and I wouldn’t want to give up much more than a 2nd rounder for him. If he returned to form under Kyle then we’d look at an MVP candidate.

Rodgers - This is a dream that won’t happen.

Watson - I would give up 3 first rounders (plus more picks) for him, but we’re keeping our young players. He’d take us to the Super Bowl most years.

Darnold - intriguing guy to build upon, he’d have a favorable contract and could be good in our system but I don’t know that he’s ready to take a team to the big dance.

Winston - intriguing player with a huge arm, he would certainly be an upgrade but he has to get rid of the gunslinger mentality. From what I understand the Colts, Bears, Saints and Skins are all after him As a starter so I wouldn’t want to get into a bidding war.

Dodub, my thoughts on each, briefly, with the caveat that I basically watched no NFL football that wasn't the Niners and maybe one or two other NFC West games this season, and not much more last season:

In general, my QB philosophy is that I either want an elite guy, or I want a relatively cheap guy ideally in the form of a recent draft pick. The QB position is a conundrum in the NFL these days, as the really good guys cost so much that you can't help but hurt your team in other areas, but the average guys are still way to expensive to really build around them. Given the choices, I either want a great player, or I want a solid, cheap option to build a team around. Right now, we've got an expensive player who is probably slightly better than average when healthy (which is not often). That's unsustainable.

I'm with you on Carr. I think he is somewhat underrated and could be a decent fit in our offense. But I wouldn't give up much for him.

I wouldn't give up anything of value to get Wentz (the talk of a first rounder is crazy to me), but if he's available on the cheap, I'd consider it. I worry that he and Goff are damaged goods. They've both shown some things in the league, and I think they could be very good in our system, but once guys start jumping at shadows, it can be tough to come back from that. And if you can't play under pressure, you can't play in the NFL.

Agreed Rodgers isn't going anywhere. He'll make some controversial statements because he's a drama queen, but he's staying in GB.

I haven't seen much of Darnold at all, but he's a guy that I would be interested in for the right (low) price. He's been in an awful situation, but I believe he has talent. In the right situation, he could turn things around. Of course, that's pretty much how I view Rosen, so Darnold might be something of a lateral move that would also presumably require draft capital (pending the Jets' moves in the draft).

Honestly, we should have pursued Rosen last year so we could see him for a full season. It's criminal to pass on a guy like that to keep Mullens and Beathard. Not that I have such high hopes for Rosen. He's a longshot. But with a sound supporting cast and very good coaching, he has upside that blows away those other two guys. And it's not like the downside could be any worse. My biggest complaint about Shanahan is the way he's handled the QB position. He's just too arrogant about it. Hopefully taking his lumps with missing on Mahomes and Watson, the failed Garoppolo experiment (granted much of that for reasons out of Shanahan's control), and the inability to develop Mullens and Beathard has humbled him. I'm not holding my breath...

Watson is the real wild card. He's a guy who is absolutely worth the contract. But if you give him the contract, you need to backfill the roster with those draft picks. Losing the capital and the picks would make it incredibly difficult to sustain competitiveness. But look, if you have a shot at a blue chip QB, you take it within reason. I could live with something like three first round picks to secure a guy who should be an elite QB for the next decade, though maybe we could get some later-round picks back so our draft cupboard isn't entirely bare. And we'd have to stop trading up in the draft and overpaying OLBs in FA.

[wco81]

Teams like the Rams are trading away first round picks for a 2-year window pursuit.

Until teams actually win doing that, 49ers shouldn't trade any first round picks, which can have immediate impact in the NFL, as opposed to other sports.

Bears traded first round picks for Mack and where are they now?

Meanwhile those first round picks the Raiders got are going to be on the team for a long time.

[CrimsonCrew]

The only position I would willingly trade first-round picks for is QB. But if you don't have an answer at that spot, then you're in a tough spot. And it's not like those picks have helped the Raiders get to the SB themselves.

[thesack12]

It is technically possible to give the Niners a pick from the Raider, or force a swap of picks for a higher spot. Here's the applicable section of the tampering rules:

(c) Specific Penalties. Any violation of this Anti-tampering Policy will subject the involved
club and/or person to severe disciplinary action by the Commissioner. In such cases, in
addition to all other penalties provided in the Constitution and Bylaws, the Commissioner
may award or transfer a selection choice or choices and/or deprive the offending club of
a selection choice or choices, and/or may fine the offending club and/or may fine or
suspend with or without pay any involved individuals as appropriate. The League office
will promulgate to all clubs the details of any penalties imposed for tampering.

Did a little more research, and in 2011, the Lions had to swap 140 to the Chiefs for 154 for tampering with Jarrad Davis. That and the Niners' penalty are the only examples of pick swapping I'm aware of, and I can't find any examples of just giving the victimized team a pick outright, but I believe that would be permissible under the "award...a selection choice" language. Again, if ever there was a case to make an example out of a coach/team, this is it.

Agreed, filing a complaint should be pursued as there are rules in place for a reason. If 9ers somehow benefit from it via draft pick compensation, great. If not, whatever.

[GS Warriors 1]

A lot of Sam Darnold talk lately. At best, the guy is in a battle. Most likely, he'll be QB2 on a team with a vet QB if acquired. The Jets are hoping for a top 50 range pick but don't think a team bites. No one is going to pick up the $24.8M 5th year option, so he's on the last year of his rookie deal. Still seeing some of the same mistakes that became sort of glaring in his last year at USC and he's entering season 4 in the NFL. Not good. He's shown obvious talent on certain plays, so the best hope for him is to hook up with a good to great offensive mind. I think sitting back and working on stuff for a season could be good for him. Keyword is "could"...it could be also be that he's destined for "bustdom". Shanahan certainly qualifies as that level of offensive mind. Acquiring Darnold probably puts the 49ers out of the QB conversation in the draft because you're likely spending a 3rd round pick on him, at least, and his 2021 cap number is basically equivalent to like the 7th pick of the draft. I would rather go after it in the draft because that gives a potential 5-year window instead of 1 and unknown.

[wco81]

Mock drafts have the Jets picking Wilson.

So if they do pick a QB, the price for Darnold drops.

[CrimsonCrew]

A lot of Sam Darnold talk lately. At best, the guy is in a battle. Most likely, he'll be QB2 on a team with a vet QB if acquired. The Jets are hoping for a top 50 range pick but don't think a team bites. No one is going to pick up the $24.8M 5th year option, so he's on the last year of his rookie deal. Still seeing some of the same mistakes that became sort of glaring in his last year at USC and he's entering season 4 in the NFL. Not good. He's shown obvious talent on certain plays, so the best hope for him is to hook up with a good to great offensive mind. I think sitting back and working on stuff for a season could be good for him. Keyword is "could"...it could be also be that he's destined for "bustdom". Shanahan certainly qualifies as that level of offensive mind. Acquiring Darnold probably puts the 49ers out of the QB conversation in the draft because you're likely spending a 3rd round pick on him, at least, and his 2021 cap number is basically equivalent to like the 7th pick of the draft. I would rather go after it in the draft because that gives a potential 5-year window instead of 1 and unknown.

I'm not in favor of going hard after Darnold by any means. I'd just as soon see what Rosen can do. But Gase has proven to be an incredibly inept coach for QBs. the last guy he coached left the team and has gone on to look like a borderline franchise guy. There's some potential in Darnold, but I wouldn't get into a bidding war to see what it is. I'd consider a late second- or third-day pick for one year with him to see what's what, but that's about it. And if we're inclined to go with a retread, I'd probably prefer to see what Rosen has this year and pursue Darnold next year.

[wco81]

I wouldn't give up a second or third.

These are their picks:

Round 1, Pick 12
Round 2, Pick 43
Round 3 (compensatory pick)
Round 4, Pick 108
Round 5, Pick 139
Round 5, Pick 157 (via NO)
Round 5 (compensatory pick)
Round 6, Pick 170
Round 7, Pick 194 (via NYJ)
Round 7, Pick 204


Maybe a 4th and 7th.

That fifth year option makes him very difficult to fit under the cap next year.

They'd have to trade away Jimmy to get out of his contract and be convinced that Darnold is the path forward.

[CrimsonCrew]

I wouldn't give up a second or third.

These are their picks:

Round 1, Pick 12
Round 2, Pick 43
Round 3 (compensatory pick)
Round 4, Pick 108
Round 5, Pick 139
Round 5, Pick 157 (via NO)
Round 5 (compensatory pick)
Round 6, Pick 170
Round 7, Pick 194 (via NYJ)
Round 7, Pick 204


Maybe a 4th and 7th.

That fifth year option makes him very difficult to fit under the cap next year.

They'd have to trade away Jimmy to get out of his contract and be convinced that Darnold is the path forward.

By late second day pick, I meant the third round comp pick, which will be in the 90s. If we haven't addressed QB by then, I'd at least consider that. But that's the absolute highest I'd go, and no way I'd take the fifth year option.

[CrimsonCrew]

We should come away from the first five rounds with three OL.

[wco81]

If you give up any good draft assets, you are pretty much committed to him for at least a couple of years.

That means potentially giving him a huge 9-figure extension.

[wco81]

Probably unlikely for the 49ers unless he's willing to take a minimum deal but JJ Watt at 31 is released.

Played 16 games last season, though obviously no longer the monster he used to be.

[CrimsonCrew]

If you give up any good draft assets, you are pretty much committed to him for at least a couple of years.

That means potentially giving him a huge 9-figure extension.

We took Beathard with a late third. That sort of pick at QB doesn't signify a long term commitment.

[wco81]

No just a bad pick.