Which QB prospect do you want most?

[clyde21]

i've been out of the loop completely on college prospects, but why don't people like Jones? watching him now seems similar to a Matt Ryan, seems like a good fit with Shanny.

[Cactus Jack]

but why don't people like Jones? watching him now seems similar to a Matt Ryan, seems like a good fit with Shanny.

Well...I think the answer is that Mac doesn't quite live up to expectations, when compared to someone like Jimmy aesthetically. Only logical explanation.

Spoiler:

Guy clearly doesn't lack confidence.

Fwiw I think Jones would be a solid pick.

[Samurai]

i've been out of the loop completely on college prospects, but why don't people like Jones? watching him now seems similar to a Matt Ryan, seems like a good fit with Shanny.

Largely because the style of play that is now the rage is having an athletic QB that can stretch defenses with both their arm and their legs. The days of pocket passers that are statues is rapidly becoming a thing of the past - Brady is 43, Rivers is 39 and Brees just retired. The QB's that can break the soul of a defense is the guy that can turn a 3rd and 10 into a 15 yard run for the first down (Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahommes, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, Watson, etc) are rising in popularity while the statues like Joe Namath are becoming dinosaurs. Jones more resembles a brontosaurus than a modern QB.

[CrimsonCrew]

i've been out of the loop completely on college prospects, but why don't people like Jones? watching him now seems similar to a Matt Ryan, seems like a good fit with Shanny.

I feel like I've created about 25% of the posts in this thread addressing that question, but I'll tackle it again. I don't have a huge problem with Jones. I think he's a promising prospect who could flourish in Shanahan's system. He has some clear strengths, mostly revolving around his play from the pocket. He appears to be smart, understands offensive concepts, is quick and efficient reading the field, and can make most of the throws. He's accurate, and has a fairly compact delivery. There's a lot there to like. I just don't know that he's worth the third pick in this draft, and at the cost of two additional first and a third.

Jones is a difficult evaluation in many ways. He might have been playing with the greatest collection of offensive talent in the history of the NCAA. He had two WRs who will likely go in the top-10, a RB who will likely go in the first round (and who might have also gone top-10 eight years ago), arguably the best center in the draft class, and two more OL who might go in the second or third round. And his offensive coordinator was one of the best in the game, with a track record of making college QBs look great before they struggle in the pros. Yes, he went through his reads efficiently, but he also had players getting WIDE open (to be fair, so did Fields and Lance). He rarely faced consistent pressure. He generally made good reads, but he wasn't flawless in that regard, and he threw his fair share of bad balls - decision-wise and accuracy-wise.

Jones' physical skills are average at best. They're not as bad as some have made them out to be, and in most draft classes they probably wouldn't be so maligned, but this is a class with some truly elite physical talents. And next to that, well, Jones has a dad bod and a below average NFL arm. He has enough arm to play in the league, but it simply isn't good enough to make all the throws, especially off platform or on the move. He can move in the pocket, but he's not effective outside of it on the move (he's adequate on designed rollouts, but it's not a strength). He's always going to be physically limited, and I think the questions about whether his mental processing is so much better than his peers is legitimate. His offense was more QB-friendly than the other two IMO (for what it's worth), though he also may have been asked to do more in it. That's tough for me to say. I will say that I think he will probably be an upgrade over Garoppolo in the near future. I'm not terribly impressed with Garoppolo's reading of a defense, vision, etc., he can't throw deep at all, he's a zero on the hoof, and he has mediocre pocket presence. Jones can probably improve on those things. But his pure physical tools might be worse.

I read a comment from an unidentified GM today that kind of resonated (forget where I saw it, now). It said something to the effect of, "Mac Jones is the guy you love from year two to year five. But he's also the guy that you may not be happy with from years five or six on." Recently, we've seen a rash of QBs who have had questions entering the league about their processing, their recognition, their ability to thrive in structure. And a somewhat surprising number of them have already ascended into the ranks of the NFL's best, including Mahomes, Watson, Jackson, Allen, and arguably Murray. So the question becomes, can you take a very smart, committed player with elite physical skills and improve his mental game? Can you project a guy who wasn't asked to do things in college, but can learn to do them at a very high level in the NFL with coaching? I think there's a pretty good chance that a guy like Fields in Shanahan's system could equal or surpass Jones within the first four years, and there's just no doubt that he's got more upside. Fields is by no means a squeaky clean prospect. He struggled with pressure at times. He holds the ball too long. He may not process all that quickly - this seems to come and go to an extent. But he's a supremely gifted, intelligent, hard-working guy who found ways to win, rose to the challenge week in and week out, and when he did struggle, he managed to correct a lot of his mistakes during a short, bizarre and challenging season.

I've already said I'd take Jones over Lance, and frankly I still feel that way, even if Lance is a phenom in the classroom. Just too many question marks about his adjustment to the pro game.

[Jikkle]

i've been out of the loop completely on college prospects, but why don't people like Jones? watching him now seems similar to a Matt Ryan, seems like a good fit with Shanny.

He just doesn't have a high ceiling because of his physical limitations and his biggest problem is his arm talent is very average.

He's definitely solid and he does have traits you can get behind but when you're picking 3rd overall and you gave up two 1st round picks along with a 3rd you're hoping for more than solid.

It's just harder to get behind a Mac Jones pick when you have Fields and Lance on the board who are way more physically gifted and have a chance to be special in the league.

With Jones the odds the odds of him being a Tom Brady or Drew Brees aren't high and it's likely picking Jones the 9ers will have successfulyl upgraded the 4th best QB in the NFC West with what will be the 4th best QB in the NFC West.

[thesack12]

I just can't fathom the idea that they traded three 1sts + a 3rd just for the right to draft a richman's Andy Dalton.

Trading multiple picks to move up the board to take a QB hasn't exactly been a recipe for success in recent years. And those teams that did so, were going up for guys who were much higher rated prospects than Mac Jones. Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, RG3, etc.

Furthermore the NFL is moving away from players like Mac Jones, and that type of QB will soon be considered archaic. So many things have to go right for a guy like that to be successful on any given play, let alone have a successful career. Dude is simply not a playmaker. If his O-line gets beat or his receivers can't get open, our best hope is he throws the ball away. He just isn't capable of extending a play giving the receivers more time to get open, or gaining yardage/first downs with his legs.

All this just to take a guy that very easily could have been available had they stayed at #12. Jones has like zero buzz among any other team. Getting that aggressive and making the move up a month before the draft, is just asinine if the plan has been for Mac Jones all along.

The crazy part is there is absolutely no guarantees that Jones is even an upgrade on Garoppolo. The ceiling here is just so dang limited. If you are taking the "most NFL ready QB" you do that because your seat is extra hot and you don't want to get fired. However in this case both Lynch and Shanahan are fresh off extensions. Drafting with eyes on years 1-3, is a terrible TERRIBLE strategy.

As I mentioned awhile back, I much prefer whomeever they take prove to be a colossal bust in short order as opposed to the guy being steady and competent but underwhelming overall. Committing to the Andy Dalton, Derek Carr, Teddy Bridgewater, Kirk Cousins caliber of QB equates to NFL purgatory.

If the reports are true that Shanahan is dead set on Jones but the scouting and personnel department want someone else, if Jones is the pick and he struggles to make an impact there is going to be a TON of dissension in that building. It will be a matter of Well Kyle you got who you wanted, and you are the guy that is in charge of his development but the dude just isn't any good, and we let our super bowl window slam shut in the process.

[thesack12]

The Mac Jones to 49ers talk ignited immediately after the trade, and has held strong for a month now. Really the only thing that has somewhat slowed it down has been the reports that Vegas put Fields as the favorite after his pro day, then Lance after his pro day. So Vegas' thoughts doesn't really mean much.

Has there ever been an instance where there has been this much smoke connecting a prospect to a team, only to see that they didn't actually take that player? I can't think of any off the top of my head. I know we're talking about pick #3, so the situation is not fully under the control of the 49ers, but its almost universally accepted that the first 2 picks are locked in. So in essence, Frisco has been on the clock for a few weeks now.

If the decision is indeed down to Lance or Jones, gimme Trey 100% of the time. As I mentioned in the above post, I'm all about boom or bust when it comes to QB's and Trey is the posterboy for that type of pick. 9ers have a perfect situation for him, as they can redshirt him his rookie year while playing Jimmy who has proven he can get to a superbowl. More importantly, Lance's skillset is much more in tune with the NFL game today. And Most importantly his upside is massive, arguably the highest of anybody in the draft.

[Dodub]

This discussion is officially over after watching the press conference. John Lynch basically washed his hands of this thing and put it all on Kyle. Kyle is going to take Mac Jones without a doubt. I also think that it’s telling that Kyle is going out of his way to fake that he’s been interested in Fields and Lance.

I’m so disgusted with this whole thing that I can’t even bring myself to watch the draft. 3 first round picks for Mac Jones is inexcusable.

[thesack12]

I’m so disgusted with this whole thing that I can’t even bring myself to watch the draft. 3 first round picks for Mac Jones is inexcusable.

I'm not to the point to where I'm not gonna watch the draft, but I do feel where you are coming from.

9ers have the 3rd overall pick with a chance to get a franchise changing QB and set them up for the next 10+ years, yet I really have no excitement about this draft. It just feels bad man. If this whole Jones narrative didn't exist, this would be an exhilarating draft situation. But yet, here we are with the fanbase's morale being very low.

On top of all this they won't have a 1st for the next two drafts either, so those drafts aren't gonna be nearly as fun as usual either. All this for Mac Freaking Jones. Ugh, i need a shower...

[CrimsonCrew]

I just find that my faith in Shanahan as an evaluator of QB talent is shaken to the core by the Beathard and Mullens experiment. It's bad enough that we passed on Mahomes and Watson in 2017, but it's made ten times worse that we added Beathard - trading up for the privilege! - and then stuck with him for four years in the absence of any evidence that he could be a competent NFL QB. Mullens at least showed flashes that he could possibly be a sound backup before really and truly collapsing this year. And that's the concern for me. We've seen what smart players with supbar physical skills (granted Mac Jones' tools are better than these two) can do in Shanahan's system. They can throw for lots of yards...and be bad (to the tune of a 7-26 record).

Shanahan wants to see his QBs do certain things in college, and he seems to lack the imagination to project if they can do those things in the pros. It's why he passed on Mahomes and Watson. It's why he'll likely pass on Fields. And he may be right in the case of Fields, but I'd sure as hell rather take a shot on a guy who can be special than a guy who may only ever be a mid-level NFL QB. That sort of player becomes a disaster when you're forced to pay him $25-30 million a year and he can't win without the supporting cast. ESPECIALLY when you've traded away pieces that would build that supporting cast.

It's possible that going to the super bowl in his third season was a bad thing for Shanahan. It made him believe that he could orchestrate greatness while overlooking the fact that his team was bolstered by additional draft picks and huge cap space (granted they blew a lot of it on terrible contracts). I think he probably underestimated the contributions of his defense, and overlooked the fact that defensive performance from year to year is much more variable than offensive. I think he believes that all he needs is a guy who can execute the plays exactly as he draws them up. And again, maybe he's right. He's obviously a lot smarter about a lot of this stuff than I am. Though again, I called Beathard out as a waste of a roster spot two years ago (hated the pick when we made it, but resolved at the time to give Shanahan the benefit of the doubt). Shanahan had him starting games this year.

[Dodub]

I’m so disgusted with this whole thing that I can’t even bring myself to watch the draft. 3 first round picks for Mac Jones is inexcusable.

I'm not to the point to where I'm not gonna watch the draft, but I do feel where you are coming from.

9ers have the 3rd overall pick with a chance to get a franchise changing QB and set them up for the next 10+ years, yet I really have no excitement about this draft. It just feels bad man. If this whole Jones narrative didn't exist, this would be an exhilarating draft situation. But yet, here we are with the fanbase's morale being very low.

On top of all this they won't have a 1st for the next two drafts either, so those drafts aren't gonna be nearly as fun as usual either. All this for Mac Freaking Jones. Ugh, i need a shower...

Yeah, I was excited at first when we traded up but all of my excitement is gone. Now I just feel a sense of disappointment, I’m disappointed in myself for even getting my hopes up.

Truthfully, I would have felt better about sending the #12 pick for Darnold than I feel about trading 2 first rounders and a third to draft Mac Jones when he could have been picked at 6 or 7.

[clyde21]

It's possible that going to the super bowl in his third season was a bad thing for Shanahan. It made him believe that he could orchestrate greatness while overlooking the fact that his team was bolstered by additional draft picks and huge cap space (granted they blew a lot of it on terrible contracts). I think he probably underestimated the contributions of his defense, and overlooked the fact that defensive performance from year to year is much more variable than offensive. I think he believes that all he needs is a guy who can execute the plays exactly as he draws them up. And again, maybe he's right. He's obviously a lot smarter about a lot of this stuff than I am. Though again, I called Beathard out as a waste of a roster spot two years ago (hated the pick when we made it, but resolved at the time to give Shanahan the benefit of the doubt). Shanahan had him starting games this year.

if he believes that they wouldn't have traded up tho? they will be using 3 first rounds pick on whoever they draft at 3.

[CrimsonCrew]

It's possible that going to the super bowl in his third season was a bad thing for Shanahan. It made him believe that he could orchestrate greatness while overlooking the fact that his team was bolstered by additional draft picks and huge cap space (granted they blew a lot of it on terrible contracts). I think he probably underestimated the contributions of his defense, and overlooked the fact that defensive performance from year to year is much more variable than offensive. I think he believes that all he needs is a guy who can execute the plays exactly as he draws them up. And again, maybe he's right. He's obviously a lot smarter about a lot of this stuff than I am. Though again, I called Beathard out as a waste of a roster spot two years ago (hated the pick when we made it, but resolved at the time to give Shanahan the benefit of the doubt). Shanahan had him starting games this year.

if he believes that they wouldn't have traded up tho? they will be using 3 first rounds pick on whoever they draft at 3.

That's a fair counter. But that's the signal that would be sent by drafting a Mac Jones.

I'm probably flying off the handle a bit prematurely. Nothing is set in stone, and no one seems to really know what the team is going to do. I havne't watched/listened to the press conference, but it certainly sounded like we saw a defensive Shanahan who was anticipating some pushback when he drafted Jones. But maybe I'm wrong.

[CrimsonCrew]

And I'll note that "draft pick valuation" hasn't exactly been a strength of this front office. If they want a guy, they are going to get him. Whether it's Joe Williams and Beathard in the third, Pettis in the second, paying out the nose for McKinnon and Juszczyk, etc., they will do what it takes to get the guys they want.

[Samurai]

[quote="Jikkle"
He just doesn't have a high ceiling because of his physical limitations and his biggest problem is his arm talent is very average.
[/quote]
The problem is that we already have a guy that fits that description very well; goes by the moniker Jimmy G. And I would not trade two first round picks just to get a younger version of Jimmy. I would do that to get someone with the potential to be a game-changer similar to Mahommes, Watson, Josh Allen, Wilson, etc. That sounds a lot more like Fields or possibly Lance than it does Jones or a younger version of Cousins or Jimmy G.

[thesack12]

And I'll note that "draft pick valuation" hasn't exactly been a strength of this front office. If they want a guy, they are going to get him. Whether it's Joe Williams and Beathard in the third, Pettis in the second, paying out the nose for McKinnon and Juszczyk, etc., they will do what it takes to get the guys they want.

To springboard on this, Peter King (who was supposedly in the draft room at the time) has reported that they had Reuben Foster rated #3 on their board in 2017 and if Chicago took Soloman Thomas after they traded back, they were very comfortable taking Foster @ 3.

This regime certainly has a history of getting hyper focused on a particular guy and way overpaying to get them, not to mention supremelu over-rating prospects in the draft.

[CrimsonCrew]

I'm watching a bit of the press conference, and I'll confess that I don't really understand Kyle's mindset re: hiding their interest in the QBs when they were at 12. Meet with all of them. Talk to all of them. Hide your intentions by creating the same circumstances with each of them. Sure, teams might anticipate a move up, but that doesn't really hurt you. Teams already anticipate other teams will try to move up, especially for QB. And if you're negotiating to trade up, clearly that team knows you're interested in doing so and can leverage that interest. I love that they are conscious of tipping their hand, but they also appear to be inhibiting themselves and possibly overpaying for a commodity that they view more highly than the rest of the league.

Though I'm gonna laugh if they now come out and draft Fields after all our consternation. There were moments where I thought they were. I still can't make sense of some things. If you like Jones so much, why go to all the trouble with Lance? Could just be due diligence, which I appreciate, but those guys are not similar, as players. And if you like Jones more, I can't see changing your minds based on a pro day or even John Beck's work with a guy. Conversely, if you know Beck has an inside track on Fields, and Fields and Lance are similar players physically, then it makes sense to try to get them into a similar situation and get a better sense for the mental piece, their demeanor, how they respond to coaching, etc.

[CrimsonCrew]

Interesting read on Fields vs. Jones, with some videos to support the argument (granted individual plays only show so much and can be used to make whatever case you want).

https://ftw.usatoday.com/lists/nfl-draft-49ers-quarterback-mac-jones-justin-fields?utm_source=49ersWebZone&utm_medium=dt&utm_campaign=affref

The thing that really strikes me is the heat mapping. I started reading the Seth Galina piece from PFF, but don't have a membership. For me, a big incentive of moving off Garoppolo is to expand the field for the offense (and for the defense as a result). I said this earlier in the thread, but Garoppolo really only attacks a 30-yard by 20-yard area of the field (excluding behind the LOS passes). Jones can throw deep more effectively than Garoppolo, but I'm worried he'll struggle here in the NFL. He was frequently short on those passes at Alabama, and his elite WRs bailed him out either by being wide open or by coming back to make a play on the ball. One of the real benefits of brining in a Fields is that we can attack all areas of the field. Outside the numbers. 60+ yards downfield. Even if his reading is a tick slower, he can benefit from larger throwing windows because the defense has to worry about more things and can't be as aggressive.

This article also briefly references something that I'd been reflecting on with the rise of the athletic QB. The CBA changed in 2011 to limit practice time pretty dramatically. Since that change, you'd be hard-pressed to find a pocket passer who has really been developed and excelled at the highest level. Since 2011, Andy Dalton, Kirk Cousins, Nick Foles, Jimmy Garoppolo, Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, and Jared Goff have really been the only QBs who have found success in the league. Of those, Cousins and Goff are probably the clear cream of the crop. And although I think Cousins is very underrated, that's still not a level of play you should be targeting at three overall in a good QB draft.

Conversely, Cam Newton, Kaepernick, Luck, arguably Robert Griffin, Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Kyler Murray have all found success. I would take about eight of those guys over Cousins without thinking twice, and it would probably be close on two or three more. It's also worth nothing that of the first group, only Goff was drafted after 2015, while everyone from Wentz on from the latter group is a more recent addition. There is a clear trend in the league, and it's there for a reason. If we do buck it, I sure as hell hope we get it right.

[CrimsonCrew]

Just one more thing to add about the press conference. Kyle's demeanor really suggests the Jones pick to me. He was pretty punchy, borderline surly. He already appears defensive about the pick. There didn't seem to be all that much excitement. He was getting ready to defend the pick to the fanbase. At least, that's the sense I got. Again, entirely possible I'm wrong.

[Cactus Jack]

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