The Trey Lance thread

[Bingo_AlphaMan]

TREY LANCE
QB, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Coach Kyle Shanahan said Trey Lance suffered a sprained knee in the Week 5 loss to the Cardinals.

The good news is the 49ers have a bye this upcoming week, and Jimmy Garoppolo (calf) wasn't expected to be dealing with a long-term injury prior to being ruled out last week, allowing Lance to get the start. Lance played really poorly, especially as a passer, against Arizona. It would be a surprise if Garoppolo doesn't get his starting job back when healthy. San Francisco has two weeks to figure it out.
SOURCE: Matt Barrows on Twitter

Oct 11, 2021, 6:51 PM ET

[Samurai]

Here is the conundrum for me: if we are serious about building a top-level team for the next few seasons, then Lance needs to start and make serious headway on his learning curve. But we also have many other holes to strengthen and we won't have the draft capital over the next few years to do so. So I can see the argument to start Jimmy as soon as he is healthy and hope he plays well enough that a team who might need a QB this season (injuries always happen) might trade us some draft picks for him. Nobody is going to give us draft picks if Jimmy isn't playing, but Lance isn't going to really develop just holding a clipboard.

[Pattersonca65]

I almost forgot about Greg Cosell. No one provides more of an in-depth film analysis. He did an analysis of all the rookie QBs including Lance against the Seahawks. Here is Trey Lance. Not surprising his struggles are with things that come with experience

TREY LANCE VERSUS SEAHAWKS DEFENSE
Jones and Reed were the Seahawks outside corners with Amadi and Blair again splitting snaps as the slot corner

Seahawks had not played any snaps of dime through the first 3 games, Against the 49ers they played 24 snaps of dime with Neal the dime safety

Seahawks continued to feature 5-2 fronts (often reduced) out of base with Wagner and Brooks the stacked LB, They featured 5 DL versus 49ers 21 personnel

Post safety Diggs continued to show outstanding ability to play top down in the run down and make tackles on the move and in space

When the Seahawks showed double mug out of dime Wagner and Neal were the A gap defenders, Double mug and loaded fronts part of Seahawks dime package with Neal consistently a box/LOS defender

Sermon predominantly ran out of 21 and 12 personnel, 14-65 out of those 2 personnel groupings; He ran zone, zone counter and gap scheme (at times counter try) – Sermon a decisive competitive downhill runner

49ers have run power more going back to 2020, My sense is Sermon can be effective running gap scheme with his downhill traits – I also believe Sermon is a volume runner who develops a rhythm the more he carries the ball

DL Nkemdiche continued to get significant snaps in the base defense, He flashed in the run game

3rd + 4 on Lance second possession 49ers ran base route combination: Double glance to the boundary and slant-flat to the field, Lance went to Samuel #1 to the field on the glance route and was scattershot inaccurate

Samuel 76 yard TD on Lance third possession came on 2 man route to the field out of twins with Aiyuk running the in-breaker and Samuel the wheel from the slot, Corner Jones in Seahawks cover 3 followed Aiyuk inside and no one reacted to Samuel wheel; In that defense Adams aligned over Samuel did not have a deep responsibility in coverage unless a third receiver released to that side (Lance factor as a runner), It was corner Jones and post safety Blair who were responsible for Samuel and Aiyuk

Taylor continued to flash as an edge pass rusher with his desired combination of lateral quickness and deceptive strength

Lance needs to learn what open is in the NFL both versus man and zone coverage: On 1st + 10 to start 4th quarter drive 49ers ran post-cross combination off pistol play action versus Seahawks cover 3, Aiyuk wide open on the crosser with Wagner trying to hunt it up; That’s a throw Lance has to turn loose, Instead his helmet was not calm and he broke down in the pocket and ran for 3 yards

Lance too many snaps in which he did not get a clear picture when he dropped back and hit that back foot, Result was he broke down immediately and left the pocket

Lance in this game was impatient in the pocket too often breaking down prematurely not allowing the route concepts to develop, He showed a tendency to drop his eyes

My sense watching the 49ers pass game through 4 games is that RT McGlinchey has struggled in one-on-one pass protection

Seahawks continued to be a high percentage zone coverage defense out of nickel and dime, On 3rd down the Seahawks have played the second lowest percentage of cover 1 of any team in the NFL while playing among the highest percentage of split safety zone coverage

[CrimsonCrew]

My sense watching the 49ers pass game through 4 games is that RT McGlinchey has struggled in one-on-one pass protection

Understatement of the decade.

[Jikkle]

Here is the conundrum for me: if we are serious about building a top-level team for the next few seasons, then Lance needs to start and make serious headway on his learning curve. But we also have many other holes to strengthen and we won't have the draft capital over the next few years to do so. So I can see the argument to start Jimmy as soon as he is healthy and hope he plays well enough that a team who might need a QB this season (injuries always happen) might trade us some draft picks for him. Nobody is going to give us draft picks if Jimmy isn't playing, but Lance isn't going to really develop just holding a clipboard.

The problem is that this is a team with playoff aspirations and everyone in the organization is going to want to win now and Jimmy G is who they believe gives them the best chance to win now.

Going to Lance will be interrupted by everyone in the organization as waving the white flag and you risk losing the locker room and front office support if you're Shanahan.

As negative as it has been around the team on a 3 game losing streak they are still very much alive for a wild card spot. Rams/Cards will almost certainly be one spot but the last two spots are wide open as every team currently in the mix is roughly as flawed as the 9ers are right now.

To us fans and pundits from the outside we know the team doesn't have much of a chance to win a Super Bowl even if they make the playoffs but to the organization themselves they just aren't thinking that way.

To me I'd go ahead and move ahead with Lance for the sake of the future and to a certain extent the now because I feel he can still get better and better during the season and to me the offense's ceiling it higher with Lance at QB as flawed as he is right now than it is with Jimmy G whose about tapped out of his ceiling right now.

[Jikkle]

Watch on YouTube

Interesting breakdown of what he did wrong and what he could do better but ultimately it boils down to what we already know in that he needs experience and he needs mechanical work.

What does encourage me about Lance regarding his accuracy is when he does do everything right he can really nail his spots like he did with Aiyuk on that 3rd and short. The question is if he can be consistent because he does appear to have it in him and I'm bullish on him improving his mechanics because it's gotta be obvious to him he needs work in that regard and he seems like he'll put that work in to improve them. Just a matter of how much he can improve them and how long it'll take because while I'll expect him to make some leaps in improvement over the offseason it might not be until his 3rd season he really gets them down.

[CrimsonCrew]

That video really highlights some of the lack of execution, which is ultimately on the HC, IMO. Got to do better, and ultimately that's on Shanahan.

[Samurai]

My sense watching the 49ers pass game through 4 games is that RT McGlinchey has struggled in one-on-one pass protection

Understatement of the decade.

Yup. This analysis is right up there with 'my sense is that water is wet'. Just sad that we don't have anyone, including our rookies, that are any better.

[Pattersonca65]

Greg Cosell on Lance's first start

https://omny.fm/shows/tolbert-krueger-brooks-podcast/10-13-greg-cosell-breaks-down-trey-lances-first-nf

[Jikkle]

Lance out two weeks with a sprained knee

One interesting theory I've heard on this is because of the rules if a player is injured they are allowed to be at the facility during the bye week to rehab whereas they aren't if they are healthy they can't be so the team might be stretching the definition of "sprained" to allow them to have Lance in the building and have access to him.

I'd put it in the plausible category as his "injury" did seem rather odd since he didn't feel it until after the fact so clearly it's pretty minor if it is anything. And in a league that's all about stretching the rules to get any advantage you can I wouldn't put it past the team to do something like this just to give themselves an extra week to work with him.

My only thoughts of why this might not be the case is they are certain to go back to Jimmy G after the bye and it's tough for me to imagine him not being healthy enough to go after the bye when he seemed close to being able to practice for the Cardinals game.

[Pattersonca65]

Lance out two weeks with a sprained knee

One interesting theory I've heard on this is because of the rules if a player is injured they are allowed to be at the facility during the bye week to rehab whereas they aren't if they are healthy they can't be so the team might be stretching the definition of "sprained" to allow them to have Lance in the building and have access to him.

I'd put it in the plausible category as his "injury" did seem rather odd since he didn't feel it until after the fact so clearly it's pretty minor if it is anything. And in a league that's all about stretching the rules to get any advantage you can I wouldn't put it past the team to do something like this just to give themselves an extra week to work with him.

My only thoughts of why this might not be the case is they are certain to go back to Jimmy G after the bye and it's tough for me to imagine him not being healthy enough to go after the bye when he seemed close to being able to practice for the Cardinals game.

Interesting theory but Lance did not practice today so it looks like the injury is as serious as was reported. At least it met the injury timeline or he would have been practicing today

[Jikkle]

Lance out two weeks with a sprained knee

One interesting theory I've heard on this is because of the rules if a player is injured they are allowed to be at the facility during the bye week to rehab whereas they aren't if they are healthy they can't be so the team might be stretching the definition of "sprained" to allow them to have Lance in the building and have access to him.

I'd put it in the plausible category as his "injury" did seem rather odd since he didn't feel it until after the fact so clearly it's pretty minor if it is anything. And in a league that's all about stretching the rules to get any advantage you can I wouldn't put it past the team to do something like this just to give themselves an extra week to work with him.

My only thoughts of why this might not be the case is they are certain to go back to Jimmy G after the bye and it's tough for me to imagine him not being healthy enough to go after the bye when he seemed close to being able to practice for the Cardinals game.

Interesting theory but Lance did not practice today so it looks like the injury is as serious as was reported. At least it met the injury timeline or he would have been practicing today

He's not practicing again today so it seems that's the case. I would suspect he won't practice this week but be available for the game against the Colts.

[wco81]

The problem is that this is a team with playoff aspirations and everyone in the organization is going to want to win now and Jimmy G is who they believe gives them the best chance to win now.

Going to Lance will be interrupted by everyone in the organization as waving the white flag and you risk losing the locker room and front office support if you're Shanahan.

As negative as it has been around the team on a 3 game losing streak they are still very much alive for a wild card spot. Rams/Cards will almost certainly be one spot but the last two spots are wide open as every team currently in the mix is roughly as flawed as the 9ers are right now.

To us fans and pundits from the outside we know the team doesn't have much of a chance to win a Super Bowl even if they make the playoffs but to the organization themselves they just aren't thinking that way.

To me I'd go ahead and move ahead with Lance for the sake of the future and to a certain extent the now because I feel he can still get better and better during the season and to me the offense's ceiling it higher with Lance at QB as flawed as he is right now than it is with Jimmy G whose about tapped out of his ceiling right now.

Of the 12 remaining games, only 4 teams currently have a winning record, AZ, LAR (twice) and Cincinnati. Bears and Vikings are 3-3.

They pretty much hav to win the division games vs AZ, Seattle and at least one of the LAR games, to increase their NFC win totals for tiebreakers.

So Kyle has to decide who gives them the best chance to win and make the playoffs.

Sure it would be better to give Lance more snaps for the long-term future. But Kyle is looking at another losing season potentially. That would make 4 out of 5 seasons where the team has a losing season.

That 2019 season really looks like an outlier now.

So it really depends on how much Kyle wants to win now. Sure with 5 years remaining on his contract after this one, he has time. But does he really want another losing season? Of course he may believe he can win while playing Trey the rest of the way.

[wco81]

Kyle is 24-11 when Jimmy starts and 7-28 when someone else starts.

Over half those wins with Jimmy came in 2019, when they had a dominant defense.

[wco81]

Michael Lombardi insists Kyle wanted Matt Jones but Lynch got swayed by the Twitter reaction and he and Adam Peters convinced Kyle that they had to take Lance, not Jones.

Lombardi says he should have stuck to his instincts because there is no way Lynch and Peters can evaluate QBs better than Kyle.

[Jikkle]

Michael Lombardi insists Kyle wanted Matt Jones but Lynch got swayed by the Twitter reaction and he and Adam Peters convinced Kyle that they had to take Lance, not Jones.

Lombardi says he should have stuck to his instincts because there is no way Lynch and Peters can evaluate QBs better than Kyle.

Unless Kyle or someone really close to him comes out with specific details of how it all went down I just won't believe that.

Kyle is probably the most powerful person currently in the organization and someone with a stubborn personality, making a career defining decision that he'll be tied too is going to let Lynch and Peters talk him into Lance because fans on twitter won't be happy with Jones. I can't just see Kyle not picking the QB that he exactly wants regardless of what Lynch, Peters, or even York wants.

And I don't know why it's hard to envision why Kyle would want Lance. You saw how he gushed about Josh Allen after they beat us last season and which QB is closer to Allen? Lance or Jones? And Kyle's bread and butter is the running game and Lance's skillset clearly opens that up more than Jones would.

[Samurai]

Kyle is 24-11 when Jimmy starts and 7-28 when someone else starts.

Over half those wins with Jimmy came in 2019, when they had a dominant defense.

So we can start Jimmy every game that he is healthy for the remainder of this season and insert Lance as a Taysom Hill change-of-pace guy initially, and start increasing his role as he becomes increasingly comfortable with the system and what he is being asked to do. Hopefully he continues to improve and by the end of the year, it should not only be obvious that Lance should start next season but it builds some excitement among the players and fan base to see what a full-time Lance could look like.

[Jikkle]

Lance era begins now.

I'm actually looking forward to seeing not just Lance but the offense in general next season because I do believe Kyle is going to do a mini overhaul of his offense.

The Banks and Sermon picks didn't contribute at all and didn't completely fit what we did this season anyways which suggest that between those 2 and Lance that Kyle was planning on tweaking the offense under Lance for the 2022 season.

I think one reason Kyle wasn't keen on playing Lance was in large part I just don't think he wants to suffer rookies. Kinda like he doesn't want to change diapers and only wants to deal with the kids once they are potty-trained and watch decent cartoons.

The other reason he didn't want to play him was he just didn't have the offense he built for him up and running yet. I believe that's why we saw a lot of the Jimmy offense in the games Lance played and a lot of pretty vanilla running plays especially by Kyle's standards.

The 2022 year should be an interesting one to see on offense how it pans out and I wouldn't be surprised if we see more power runs mixed with the zone ones.

[Bingo_AlphaMan]

Rivals Coach Not Sold on Lance

NFL coach whose team plays 49ers this season calls it an ‘early Christmas gift if SF trades Jimmy G.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10043188-rival-coach-itd-be-a-christmas-gift-if-49ers-trade-jimmy-g-and-start-trey-lance

[CrimsonCrew]

There just isn't enough sample size of Trey to rank him all that high at this time. He played a single game in 2020, and his accuracy was really spotty toward the end of 2019 and in that one game in 2020. So Garoppolo probably should be ranked higher at this time. He's shown he can play at an above-average level consistently when healthy.

Garoppolo has gotten a lot of heat - much of it rightly so, and a fair bit of it from me - but while he may be a guy who really only excels in one area (short-passing game in the middle of the field), he's really good in that area, and it's an area that is crucial to implementing his coach's very effective system. If he could have found a way to cut out the absolutely bone-headed plays that he was good for at least once or twice a game, he might have been a borderline franchise guy.

As it is, Garoppolo is a guy who will always hold his team back, and we were right to try to upgrade. But there remain huge questions about Lance, his accuracy being at the forefront. That said, extrapolating much of anything from his first two games is a fool's errand. Not many guys look good in their first two NFL starts. The best guy I can think of is Justin Herbert, and even he led his team to only 20 points in game one, 16 points in game two, and an 0-2 record. And Lance's accuracy in 2019 probably isn't all that indicative of his accuracy in 2022 (let's hope) given that he's been working on his throwing for over two years now.

On day one, Lance should open up much more of the field and playbook than Garoppolo did. Between his arm strength and mobility, he can simply do things that Jimmy can't, including threatening teams downfield and on the boundary regularly. If he can develop better vision and decision-making than Garoppolo - both areas where Jimmy has tended to struggle at times - it won't take all that much to elevate the team's overall play. It likely won't be in sustaining long drives, but we should see a significant bump in explosive plays that are driven by the QB rather than the playmakers.