The Trey Lance thread

[I_am_1z]

Does anyone have proof of Trey Lances powerful arm? I still think Justin Fields had the best arm strength, so I'm wondering why Zach Wilson and Trey Lance are regarded as stronger...

Depends on what qualifies as "proof" for you

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-superlatives-quarterbacks-trevor-lawrence-justin-fields-trey-lance-mac-jones

The 2021 quarterback class is hands down the single best PFF has ever scouted in its seven years of grading college football. That means these superlatives are quite literally the best of the best.

Strongest Arm: Trey Lance

Not only does Lance have easy juice on the ball already, but there’s also reason to think he could get even stronger because he is the youngest quarterback in the draft. Even in only one season of play, Lance still has throws all over his tape that make you say “wow” with the velocity he puts on them.

Yeah, that's not proof. There isn't necessarily a clear way to quantify arm strength. Is it the velocity with which the ball leaves the hand? Is it the distance it travels? If the former, I'd agree that Lance probably has the advantage. He can really drive the ball. His outs - when he hits them the way he wants - barely elevate above his hand. And on his deep balls, the ball explodes off his hand. Fields has more of an effortless quality to his throws, perhaps due in part to his more elongated throwing motion. In terms of distance they can throw it, I think it's a really close call. But Fields has way more control.

PFF also rates Lance as the better runner, and I'd take Fields over him pretty easily. They have a pretty similar running style. They can make guys miss, but they more often rely on their speed and power to make plays. Oddly, in citing a reason for that, Mike Renner (PFF's draft guy) mentioned Lance's yards after contact. Frankly, that's a dumb metric to use in this area. I've said this before, but any one of the guys Fields was playing against would have been the best defender on the field in Lance's games. And Fields made some of them look downright silly. Lance got a lot of yards running through LBs who weighed less than he did. Hell, he played in a game at one point in which the NT weighed something crazy, like 240. They're close, but I think Fields is a tick faster, stronger, and more elusive. And he's nails at sneaking the ball. Lance ran more, especially on called plays (oddly a ton of draws), but that doesn't make him the better runner.

Physically, these guys are really close, but Fields is more accurate. It's not even close. If we're rating on an NFL scale, I'd say Fields is an 8 or 9 out of 10 in accuracy. Lance is more like a 4 out of 10, if that. It's almost certainly the thing that's most likely to cause him to fail, if he does. He'll have to make big improvement to become an elite QB, or maybe even a good one.

This is what's had me scratching my head. Fields is clearly the better runner than Wilson and Lance, but he's being put in the same tier as them. Analytically, people say Fields is the most accurate passer of the draft. Then comes arm strength, and it seems comparable to the consensus top guy, Lance.

I'm really not understanding how Lance AND Wilson moved ahead of him.

[Jikkle]

Physically you're splitting hairs between Lance and Fields as both are more than ample there. Lance was GPS recorded in one of his games running 21.54mph which would've been the 12th fastest in the NFL and fastest for a QB so he's got plenty of speed.

The reason I guess why Lance was ahead of Fields was football IQ. Everyone raved about Lance's football IQ and the only thing you heard about Fields was he had a photographic memory. I don't think Fields has a low football IQ but it's likely Lance was noticeably higher and if they physically about the same the mental aspect would push Lance ahead of Fields.

The big thing Fields has over Lance is accuracy and that's something the 9ers must feel like it could be fixed or improved with more refined mechanics. From the interview of one of the guys working with him is they've fixed a lot of his mechanical issues and he was behind in the regard since he wasn't one of those 5 star high school prospects that had high level QB coaching for years but behind the 8 ball in that regard.

We really won't know until he suits up and we see him in action though. At least preseason will be more entertaining to watch this season.

[tres]

I was thinking hard about my overreactions Thursday night & realized I was really out of bounds. I still feel like we should of got Fields coz not only am I a huge Fields fan but he’s clearly more accurate out of him & Lance hands down. Personally I feel like the Bears got the steal of the draft. I’ve watched Trey Lance’s last & only game of 2020 & I’m not gonna lie, it’s a bit head scratching.

Watch on YouTube

The speed is definitely there & he does react very well to pressure I’ll give him that. Now this is just 1 game & outside of the only time he got sacked he was reacting well to the defense. As a fan I wish this kid nothing but the best even with all my questions about him, it’s clear to me he’s a working process fr & won’t be a starter anytime soon. All 3 of the players out of Lance, Fields & Jones are in good situations IMO, I even expect Mac Jones to lead the Pats back to the playoffs if Belichick surrounds him with the proper weapons. Our Coaches & scouts get paid to evaluate talent so they know more than me on this one & I’ll leave it at that.

[Bingo_AlphaMan]

Should have selected Justin Fields, but I'm interested in Trey Lance. Kyle wants to fill his ego building a QB from scratch. Really doesn't take much to run Shanny's offense. More interested in what we'll get tomorrow for the secondary

https://share.icloud.com/photos/0CfyeCXdG7_H-bKkzkXvbq-7Q#New_City

[Bingo_AlphaMan]

This thread gonna turn out even funnier then the “Jimmy G to SF” thread. Traded all those picks for a kid who ran all over D2 Colleges LOL smh.

This is your funniest post ever lol

Clyde’s post had me rolling.

[wco81]

So Lombardi said that Lance probably would have been available at #12.

Jones too.

[Bingo_AlphaMan]

This is what's had me scratching my head. Fields is clearly the better runner than Wilson and Lance, but he's being put in the same tier as them. Analytically, people say Fields is the most accurate passer of the draft. Then comes arm strength, and it seems comparable to the consensus top guy, Lance.

I'm really not understanding how Lance AND Wilson moved ahead of him.

Like Crims had done earlier, I’m also re-posting this from another thread we were engaged in pertaining to this year’s QB prospects:

love Wilson too. He gets the ball out quickly and with great release / not a wasted throwing motion . He’s able to make throws off platform — so reminiscent of Mahomes and Brett Favre...! I say Mahomes in the sense that he can throw passes in very awkward/weird angles but yet those passes for the most part tend to be very accurate throws. He does this to allude defenders crashing down on him or backers who are clogging the passing lanes. It’s a rare unique skill set to his game. He doesn’t posses a cannon for an arm per se, but when he throws passes the ball leaves his hand with substantial zip and serious velocity. He often throws into tight windows and he often hits them, only giving his receiver a chance of making a play, nullifying the opposing defender.

I agree with 1z in regard to his scrambling ability being vastly exaggerated. It will be a bit neutralized in the league. But it’s still a strength to his game because I believe he’ll only scramble as a last resort. Or in the RedZone / goal line design runs. He’s a pure pocket passer so he’s not going to a scramble much (a la Murray). His strength is distributing the ball to his weapons.

He’s my 3rd rated QB in this class behind Lawrence and Fields.

This year I believe that there are 4 QBs that could become superstars in the league IF they so happen to play in Shanahan’s offense. Lance could be scary good in San Francisco, even perhaps the best in this class (if we give him the Mahomes treatment by redshirting him for an entire season).

I don’t particularly like the team that Fields is going to. I don’t trust their coach at all in terms of scheme fit. I do however like the fact that they drafted two descent offensive linemen to open up holes for them in the running game.

[Bingo_AlphaMan]

So Lombardi said that Lance probably would have been available at #12.

Jones too.

“Probably” is not convincing enough. The Panthers decided to trade for Sam Darnold mainly in part because of our trade to #3. Had we stayed put at #12, maybe Atlanta would have drafted Lance? Most importantly Carolina at #8 would have been pressured to draft Fields.

Again, we can’t negate the butterfly effect as someone pointed out earlier.

[wco81]

Well if Lance doesn't work out it would be some Shanahan legacy.

Mike traded the farm for RG3 and that didn't work out.

In fact, maybe Kyle learned lessons from that and isn't going to expose Trey as much to injury risk.

[Bingo_AlphaMan]

Well if Lance doesn't work out it would be some Shanahan legacy.

Mike traded the farm for RG3 and that didn't work out.

In fact, maybe Kyle learned lessons from that and isn't going to expose Trey as much to injury risk.

They didn’t want RG3 from what has been reported. The owner forced them to do so, in return they then told the owner something like, “okay. We’ll draft Griffin as you requested but only if you allow us to pick our guy as well (Kirk Cousins)”. The owner agreed! Thus, they never liked RG3 at all for their system.

Same thing happened this year. He wanted Mac Jones. Lynch and the scouting department pleaded with Mike & Kyle saying that they would rather go with Lance. Lynch, vey likeable GM, said that he wouldn’t overrule Kyle if he wants Mac Jones, being that he’s the coach and calls the plays. On Wednesday, Kyle told John that he’s going to go with Lance. John Lynch was shocked and extremely excited to hear of the news. They kept it between themselves and not share it with no one else except for Jed York.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/05/20/mike-shanahan-i-didnt-think-trading-up-for-rg3-was-very-smart/

[Jikkle]

So Lombardi said that Lance probably would have been available at #12.

Jones too.

Extremely doubtful.

There was some smoke from the Falcons loving him before we traded and Denver was high on him as well and no telling who else was lurking on him if he had gone past #3.

When it comes to a potential franchise QB that you as a team have a firm conviction on I believe you just go get him and not worry if you could've had him at your spot or another spot etc.

If Lance is a top 5 QB, league MVP, and multiple Super Bowl MVP nobody is going to look back and say we could've had him at #12. People are going to say it was one of the boldest and smartest draft moves of all time not we got terrible value out of it.

Look at the 2017 draft. The Saints wanted Mahomes and if they traded up they could've had him but instead Reid was the one thatgave up the haul to get him and look how history would've been different if the Saints decided to go get him instead of saying he'll probably be there at our pick.

We can argue if they took the right guy but the move up to #3 itself I approve of. It'll hurt if it's a bust but if it's a hit the team could be set at QB for the next 15+ years.

[Jikkle]

Well if Lance doesn't work out it would be some Shanahan legacy.

Mike traded the farm for RG3 and that didn't work out.

In fact, maybe Kyle learned lessons from that and isn't going to expose Trey as much to injury risk.

I imagine he'll have some designed runs but I'm sure it's going to be stressed to get down and be smart about your running.

But just from the eye test he seems like he's built bigger and thicker than RG3 so I don't think durability will be an issue.

I mean him getting out of this plane he just looks like a pretty big dude.

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[Bingo_AlphaMan]

Well if Lance doesn't work out it would be some Shanahan legacy.

Mike traded the farm for RG3 and that didn't work out.

In fact, maybe Kyle learned lessons from that and isn't going to expose Trey as much to injury risk.

I imagine he'll have some designed runs but I'm sure it's going to be stressed to get down and be smart about your running.

But just from the eye test he seems like he's built bigger and thicker than RG3 so I don't think durability will be an issue.

I mean him getting out of this plane he just looks like a pretty big dude.

Knee injuries and soft tissue injuries has nothing to do with someone size. Standing in the pocket and getting sack by LBs and DTs does however.

[thesack12]

So Lombardi said that Lance probably would have been available at #12.

Jones too.

I'm not buying that one at all.

As I alluded to in a previous post, the 9ers trade up to 3 had quite a bit of influence on Carolina trading for Darnold then which later further influenced Denver's trade for Bridgewater.

In addition, on Friday morning (day after the 1st round) Carolina picked up Darnold's 5th year option. Them waiting to pick it up until after the draft, plus them passing on both Fields and Jones, very clearly indicates that they were targeting Trey Lance.

[thesack12]

Watch on YouTube

[Pattersonca65]

Well if Lance doesn't work out it would be some Shanahan legacy.

Mike traded the farm for RG3 and that didn't work out.

In fact, maybe Kyle learned lessons from that and isn't going to expose Trey as much to injury risk.

Mike didn't trade the farm. Dan Snyder did. I don't think MS was all that in on RGIII. Dan Snyder has ben playing Fantasy Football with his roster for years. One of the reasons they have been a mess so long.

[CrimsonCrew]

Well if Lance doesn't work out it would be some Shanahan legacy.

Mike traded the farm for RG3 and that didn't work out.

In fact, maybe Kyle learned lessons from that and isn't going to expose Trey as much to injury risk.

They didn’t want RG3 from what has been reported. The owner forced them to do so, in return they then told the owner something like, “okay. We’ll draft Griffin as you requested but only if you allow us to pick our guy as well (Kirk Cousins)”. The owner agreed! Thus, they never liked RG3 at all for their system.

Same thing happened this year. He wanted Mac Jones. Lynch and the scouting department pleaded with Mike & Kyle saying that they would rather go with Lance. Lynch, vey likeable GM, said that he wouldn’t overrule Kyle if he wants Mac Jones, being that he’s the coach and calls the plays. On Wednesday, Kyle told John that he’s going to go with Lance. John Lynch was shocked and extremely excited to hear of the news. They kept it between themselves and not share it with no one else except for Jed York.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/05/20/mike-shanahan-i-didnt-think-trading-up-for-rg3-was-very-smart/

I don't buy that for a second. The way I'm reading their story - though I could be wrong - is that they both liked Lance when they traded up, but also knew that they would be content with Jones. They then didn't tip their hands to one another while doing the due diligence/vetting process until the week before the draft. Although I had significant concerns that the team was going to draft Jones, and Kyle's performance in the press conference was Oscar-worthy, it doesn't look like they were ever all that gung-ho on Jones. It certainly doesn't seem like trading up for Jones at three would have made any sense whatsoever.

At this point, the pundits and reporters have all been proven wrong repeatedly. And although I'm always skeptical of anything an NFL front office says to explain their decisions, at this point that source is more reliable than the reporters.

[Bingo_AlphaMan]

Well if Lance doesn't work out it would be some Shanahan legacy.

Mike traded the farm for RG3 and that didn't work out.

In fact, maybe Kyle learned lessons from that and isn't going to expose Trey as much to injury risk.

They didn’t want RG3 from what has been reported. The owner forced them to do so, in return they then told the owner something like, “okay. We’ll draft Griffin as you requested but only if you allow us to pick our guy as well (Kirk Cousins)”. The owner agreed! Thus, they never liked RG3 at all for their system.

Same thing happened this year. He wanted Mac Jones. Lynch and the scouting department pleaded with Mike & Kyle saying that they would rather go with Lance. Lynch, vey likeable GM, said that he wouldn’t overrule Kyle if he wants Mac Jones, being that he’s the coach and calls the plays. On Wednesday, Kyle told John that he’s going to go with Lance. John Lynch was shocked and extremely excited to hear of the news. They kept it between themselves and not share it with no one else except for Jed York.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/05/20/mike-shanahan-i-didnt-think-trading-up-for-rg3-was-very-smart/

I don't buy that for a second. The way I'm reading their story - though I could be wrong - is that they both liked Lance when they traded up, but also knew that they would be content with Jones. They then didn't tip their hands to one another while doing the due diligence/vetting process until the week before the draft. Although I had significant concerns that the team was going to draft Jones, and Kyle's performance in the press conference was Oscar-worthy, it doesn't look like they were ever all that gung-ho on Jones. It certainly doesn't seem like trading up for Jones at three would have made any sense whatsoever.

At this point, the pundits and reporters have all been proven wrong repeatedly. And although I'm always skeptical of anything an NFL front office says to explain their decisions, at this point that source is more reliable than the reporters.

Crims, you and I have commented on this in the past and I’m surprised to hear that coming from you (claiming otherwise). We both in the past has had issues with the media accurately predicting/anticipating our picks weeks before the draft. Here are some notable predictions that came true:

Armstead
Buckner
McGlinchey
Deebo
Solomon
Bosa
Kinlaw

So when someone like Adam Schefter comes out and say that the 9ers moved up for Mac Jones, he wasn’t making **** up just for clout. He’s not that type of analysis.

We agree to disagree on this one, but I stand by what I said earlier being that Kyle wanted Jones. at the eleventh hou he got swayed by John Lynch; Adam Peters; and the rest of the senior level folks in their scouting department

[Jikkle]

Well if Lance doesn't work out it would be some Shanahan legacy.

Mike traded the farm for RG3 and that didn't work out.

In fact, maybe Kyle learned lessons from that and isn't going to expose Trey as much to injury risk.

They didn’t want RG3 from what has been reported. The owner forced them to do so, in return they then told the owner something like, “okay. We’ll draft Griffin as you requested but only if you allow us to pick our guy as well (Kirk Cousins)”. The owner agreed! Thus, they never liked RG3 at all for their system.

Same thing happened this year. He wanted Mac Jones. Lynch and the scouting department pleaded with Mike & Kyle saying that they would rather go with Lance. Lynch, vey likeable GM, said that he wouldn’t overrule Kyle if he wants Mac Jones, being that he’s the coach and calls the plays. On Wednesday, Kyle told John that he’s going to go with Lance. John Lynch was shocked and extremely excited to hear of the news. They kept it between themselves and not share it with no one else except for Jed York.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/05/20/mike-shanahan-i-didnt-think-trading-up-for-rg3-was-very-smart/

I don't buy that for a second. The way I'm reading their story - though I could be wrong - is that they both liked Lance when they traded up, but also knew that they would be content with Jones. They then didn't tip their hands to one another while doing the due diligence/vetting process until the week before the draft. Although I had significant concerns that the team was going to draft Jones, and Kyle's performance in the press conference was Oscar-worthy, it doesn't look like they were ever all that gung-ho on Jones. It certainly doesn't seem like trading up for Jones at three would have made any sense whatsoever.

At this point, the pundits and reporters have all been proven wrong repeatedly. And although I'm always skeptical of anything an NFL front office says to explain their decisions, at this point that source is more reliable than the reporters.

From Trotters report it was between Lance and Fields with Lance being the main guy and Jones being considered a safety net.

Even though I tend to be skeptical of front office speak since it's always "We got the guy we wanted all along" for every pick I will say looking at what they actually have done and said it does line up with how they claim it went down. Even moreso with Kyle and John since they tend to be a little more honest in their pressers than say a Pete Carroll where everything and everybody is always amazing.

Trading up to 3 if Mac Jones was your target never made sense but for Lance and Fields it did because they weren't expected to last long at all and my guess is if the 9ers didn't trade up to 3 to grab Lance someone else would've.

When you consider how much Kyle gushed about Josh Allen after the MNF game, how Sage Rosenfels said on one of the podcasts he was on that someone from the 9ers told him a year ago Kyle wanted to get more athletic at QB, how both Fields and Lance worked with Josh Beck with Lance being at the request of Shanahan, and how hands on the 9ers were with Fields and especially Lance's pro day it makes sense that the scenario was Lance and Fields not Jones.

When Kyle and John talk about the process they do get pretty specific and when you ball face lie about something you tend to avoid being overly specific and more general with what information you put out.

The Mac Jones talk was a beast the media created itself that grew out of control because the media was playing a game of telephone. I mean nearly all of the reporting was what other team's front offices thought the 9ers were going to do and now to save face a lot of them are still holding on to the narrative they created. I will be fair and say the 9ers themselves won't admit it but they could've been adding fuel to the fire which lead to such a dogged determination of Mac Jones being the pic.

[Jikkle]

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I've never been on board with the narrative that Lance can't start week 1 and especially the one where he's some 2 to 3 year project.

Unless he's still in the process of retooling and refining his mechanics there really isn't a reason he couldn't start.

You could still go with Jimmy because with him a lot more of the playbook is going to be open and he has experience working with all of the receivers so I could buy an argument in the near term he's a better option to win in 2021 especially if COVID restrictions limit off season work.

But the stuff Lance did in college is close to what he's going to do with Shanahan so it's not like he's one of these guys that has to learn how to take a snap from center or how to form a huddle and make long play calls.

The biggest knock with Lance was some accuracy which is why if he's still retooling his mechanics I'd rather him sit so he doesn't pick up bad habits and experience which is only cured if he takes reps and plays.

I also don't mind if he starts because the team is setup almost perfectly for a rookie QB. Strong running game which was further strengthen in the draft, really good defense, and great weapons to throw the ball too.

You'd just give him enough of the playbook that he can handle, expand it as the season goes on, give him around 15 to 20 attempts a game, maybe around 5 designed runs, and run the ball with the 10 running backs we have on roster now.

There is definitely benefit and a case to be made for him to sit a season but the sooner he's able to get in there the sooner he can gain experience and grow and get his growing pains out of the way.