Revisiting AJ Brown Vs Deebo

[Bingo_AlphaMan]

[wco81]

Deebo has been a great player for the 49ers.

But the way Shanahan has used him has limited his development as a downfield WR.

Great after the catch but when they need to throw more than 10 yards downfield, you don't recall many such receptions from Deebo.

Brown would have been better for that, with a greater catch radius.

When it's time to extend him, do you give Deebo a WR contract or a RB contract? While he's had some big runs this year, all those touches from the backfield has to have limited potential WR production.

[wco81]

Mike Lombardi said an interesting thing.

Deebo is not a good route runner. So the main way 49ers could get him the ball is to use him out of the backfield.

Hell Ii don't remember them passing to him out of the backfield either. He'd be matched up on a LB too. But most of the time he's in the backfield, they run, because they probably can't trust Samuel to do blitz pickup either.

Lombardi said if that's the only way you can get the ball to one of your best playmakers is to use him as a RB, you're failing as a play designer/caller.

[Bingo_AlphaMan]

Do you guys still think Deebo is better than A.J.!?

[wco81]

I think in the 49ers offense, which is short passes and a lot of YAC, Deebo has absolutely thrived.

AJ is definitely the better downfield Threat but 49ers don’t have the QB or OL for downfield passing game. I saw today, Hurts just lobbed it up to the front pylon, 50:50 ball. AJ didn’t have to jump, just shielded the CB with his big body and it dropped in his hands.

Would like to have drafted Brown but not sure he’d necessarily would have been more productive in this offense.

[Jikkle]

I think in the 49ers offense, which is short passes and a lot of YAC, Deebo has absolutely thrived.

AJ is definitely the better downfield Threat but 49ers don’t have the QB or OL for downfield passing game. I saw today, Hurts just lobbed it up to the front pylon, 50:50 ball. AJ didn’t have to jump, just shielded the CB with his big body and it dropped in his hands.

Would like to have drafted Brown but not sure he’d necessarily would have been more productive in this offense.

Pretty much how I feel.

I've always said Brown is a better option in the vast majority of offenses but Deebo is probably the better option in Shanahan's offense because of all the short-yardage YAC plays where you're going to run into contact.

[wco81]

I wonder if Deebo will be the same player he was before he signed the big extension.

His best season was 2021 when he had 77 catches for 1405 yards and 6 TDs.

His second best season was 2019, his rookie year, when he had 57 receptions and 802 yards with 3 TDs.

His third best season was last season, 2022, when he had 56 receptions, 632 yards, 2 TDs.

In 2021, he also had 59 carries for 8 TDs and last season, he had 42 carries for 5.5 YPC and 3 TDs, with a 51 yarder.

So he's made some big plays carrying the ball.

But he's only had one season over 1000 yards and a lot of it depends on big YAC. I don't know after all his touches, especially carries, whether he's going to break tackles and make big plays.


I don't know how much production the 49ers would have gotten out of AJ Brown but he's got 38 TDs (one of them a rushing TD) versus 28 for Deebo from receiving and rushing, 308 receptions to 243 for Deebo.


Right now, Brown has had 4 straight games of 125 yards or more per game. So he's playing well. Tennessee declined to extend him so he's making a lot of money, as is Deebo.


Deebo is making $8.6 million this season and then $28.6 and $24.2. Not sure if those figures are fully guaranteed.

Brown is making $8.6 million this season and then $12.4, $26.5 and $41.6! million for 2026. It would be surprising if that $41.6 figure is fully guaranteed. In 2026 Hurts salary is starting to ramp up at $31.8 and then $45.8 in 2027.


I don't see the Eagles paying him almost $42 million in 2026.

So both of them would probably have to be restructured or extended to lower cap numbers, if both are still producing.


Aiyuk has made some deeper catches over the middle but I think Brown would make them and more that Aiyuk doesn't extend for. Plus Brown would win most 50-50 balls or back shoulder fades if he had 1 on 1 coverage.

Samuel is not a bust but it's hard to dispute that Brown would have been a more productive WR. Now one can say that the 49ers needed a guy who could make plays in the running game.

But I'm not sure how much more production we can expect from Deebo. Unless he runs or regularly breaks more screen or short passes, it doesn't look like he will come close to his 2021 production.

Maybe not even his rookie season production.

[CrimsonCrew]

Part of why that draft will always be a rough one for me is that I would have taken Brown and McLaurin instead of Deebo and Hurd. Then we could have used that first that we used on Aiyuk on another position. But Aiyuk has been great, so can't be all that upset about it.

I think there's a decent chance Deebo does not see his entire contract with the Niners. Though it hasn't really been their style to cut guys if they are still contributing at all.

[wco81]

According to Spotrac, Deebo is making $8.653 million this year and then makes over $28 million and $24.2 million in 2024 and 2025.

Then his cap number in 2026 would be $8.5 in 2026, where it appears the contract could be voided.

So only 2 more seasons committed Deebo after this season?

He would turn 30 in January 2026 and his most production season is already behind him in 2021 and he had a real down year in 2022 and isn't going to come close to the 1400 yards in 2023.

So the 49ers need to start looking for a potential starter replacement who can get 1000 yards a season in the next 1-2 seasons.

Aiyuk got 1000 yards last season and is on pace to blow way past his high water mark set last year. His trajectory still seems up whereas Deebo appears to be past the peak. All those carries probably haven't helped.

So Aiyuk will get over $14 million next year, his fifth season. Then in 2025 he will be looking for a big extension.

So team could possibly overlap first season of an Aiyuk extension with the last big salary cap season for Deebo.

WRs could put up great numbers in their 30s but it's unlikely for Deebo with his physical style and his inability to develop more as a WR.

Only way to give Aiyuk a big extension is to not give Deebo another big extension in 2-3 seasons. If he's wiling to cut his salary demands to more commensurate levels with his production, sure keep him as a slot WR type who's a threat from screen passes or shallow crosses.

But either way, they're going to have to look to draft a starting WR soon.

[wco81]

Well in the last month, Deebo has swung the judgement in his direction.

Brown looked unstoppable with his string of 125 yard games.

But it seems teams have adjusted and also Hurts is struggling more. Like the 49ers game, he had several plays with what seems like eons before he had to throw and he still couldn't find his WRs.

I think absence of Godert also hurt.

Meanwhile, Deebo has scored a lot in the last month, a real bounce back season so far compared to last season.

[CharityStripe34]

You could make a legitimate argument that Deebo is the biggest game-changer we have.