Moderator: Cactus Jack
Dominater wrote:Damn Cactus jack takin over
Dominater wrote:Damn Cactus jack takin over
Dominater wrote:Damn Cactus jack takin over
Cactus Jack wrote:
Good luck Frank! John & Pete did the absolute right thing by selling high on the guy.
Danny Darko wrote:Cactus Jack wrote:
Good luck Frank! John & Pete did the absolute right thing by selling high on the guy.
Considering the salary implications of Wagner and Reed I like this, but I'm officially concerned about our pass rush now.
Dominater wrote:Damn Cactus jack takin over
Cactus Jack wrote:
Dominater wrote:Damn Cactus jack takin over
Seattle Seahawks send: DE Frank Clark, 84th overall pick
Kansas City Chiefs send: 29th and 92nd picks, lesser of 2020 second-round picks
Seahawks grade: B
Chiefs grade: D+
Wow. Make no mistake: The Chiefs are giving up an enormous haul in this deal. Let's say they end up making it to the AFC Championship Game and send the 60th pick in the 2020 draft to the Seahawks to finish up this trade. (If they finish with a higher draft pick than the 49ers, whose pick they own as part of the Ford trade, they'll send the Niners' pick instead.)
When you calculate the value of each pick using Chase Stuart's draft value chart, this trade values Clark at 21.1 points of draft capital, which is somewhere between the seventh and eighth overall selections in a typical draft. Most organizations would build in some level of a discount because the 2020 second-round pick is delayed compensation, but you get the idea.
To put that in context, if we assume that the Bears finish with the 20th pick in the draft next year and the Raiders end up picking sixth, which I would characterize as conservative estimates on both ends, the Bears will end up sending 22.8 points of draft capital on the Stuart chart to the Raiders as part of the Khalil Mack deal. That's about halfway between the sixth and seventh picks in a typical draft. (Again, a good chunk of the compensation on both sides here is delayed a year.)
The difference is larger on the traditional Jimmy Johnson chart -- the Bears would send the equivalent of the 12th pick in a typical draft to the Raiders for Mack under this scenario, while the Chiefs are sending draft capital equal to the 18th pick to the Seahawks for Clark. To put it another way, on the Stuart chart, these two trades value the difference between Clark and Mack as being equivalent to the 175th pick in a typical draft. The Johnson chart has it at the 60th spot, but the Stuart chart is more accurate than its better-known predecessor.
As was the case with the Bears, the Chiefs are also handing Clark an enormous contract as part of this trade. The deal isn't quite as large as Mack's contract, but it's a five-year, $105.5 million deal, which narrowly tops the $105 million commitment DeMarcus Lawrence took home from the Cowboys after being tagged this year for the second time. The structure of Lawrence's deal essentially guarantees that he'll make $65 million over its first three years, and I would expect Clark's deal to also have a similar sort of real commitment.
Because the Chiefs traded significant draft capital to acquire Clark, though, the true value of this deal is much larger. As I wrote about with the Mack trade, forgoing the surplus value the Chiefs would have netted from their draft picks makes Clark a more expensive proposition. The specific surplus value depends on the player and his position, but to throw a number out there, the eighth overall pick will make about $4.9 million per year, and it has delivered players such as Roquan Smith, Christian McCaffrey, and Jack Conklin in years past.
Just to pick a round number, those guys would each make somewhere around $10 million if they hit the open market this offseason. Having four years of a player like that would create more than $20 million in surplus value over that $4.9 million per year figure. If you add that onto Clark's deal, since that's the draft capital it cost to acquire him, you're looking at paying Clark closer to $26 million per year than the $21 million figure.
From a contract perspective, it's a very different deal to the contract the Chiefs presumably could have signed Dee Ford to before Ford was traded to the 49ers. Ford's five-year, $85.5 million pact has a smaller maximum value and a much more team-friendly structure; the 49ers are essentially paying Ford $21 million in Year 1 and can go year-to-year after that with modest amounts of dead money on their cap.
Combine these deals and maybe it's not as damning. The Chiefs traded away Ford, their first- and third-round picks, and a 2020 second-rounder to get back Clark, a slightly better third-round pick and a 2020 second-rounder from the 49ers. If the Chiefs wanted to upgrade at pass-rusher without paying Ford, they eventually got there.
Clark is a better player than Ford, even if their sack and quarterback knockdown numbers were similar last season. Ford benefited from playing on a high-tempo team that got in a lot of shootouts, while Clark played on a Seahawks team that tended to grind out drives on offense. Ford had 13 sacks and 29 knockdowns on 514 pass-rush attempts, the sixth-most in football. Clark, meanwhile, racked up 13 sacks and 27 knockdowns across 424 pass-rush opportunities, which was 31st in the league.
You would also bet on Clark's deal to age better. At 25, he is more than two full years younger than Ford. Ford underwent back surgery in college, and while that didn't scare the Chiefs off from taking him in the first round of the 2014 draft, Ford underwent a second back surgery in 2017 which cost the Auburn product most of his fourth season as a pro. Clark has missed only two games in four seasons as a pro.
His concerns are instead off the field. Clark was dismissed from Michigan during the 2014 season after being arrested on domestic violence charges. Clark hasn't had any follow-up incidents during his time as a professional, but he was forced to apologize in 2017 after insulting Bleacher Report writer Natalie Weiner for discussing Clark's past in an article. It's one thing for any organization to give Clark a big contract, but it's another for the Chiefs, who have already had to release Kareem Hunt and are currently grappling with an investigation into an alleged battery involving a juvenile at the home of Tyreek Hill.
The issue in treating the Clark trade as part of the Ford deal is that the Chiefs weren't limited to two options. Their choices weren't between paying Ford as part of a long-term deal or trading Ford and using the savings to pay Clark. They could have franchised Ford or given him a similar deal to the 49ers while using their draft capital to either pick a second defensive end or as part of a deal to trade up and grab another pass-rusher. They could have waited a year, rolled over their cap space, and gone after Ford or one of the other pass-rushers available in free agency. They could have targeted someone like Jadeveon Clowney with a similar deal. They could have topped the Patriots' trade offer for Michael Bennett and the Lions' offer for Trey Flowers. There are countless scenarios.
In viewing this trade in a vacuum, the Chiefs didn't come away with good value. I understand the desire to build a winner around Patrick Mahomes while his contract is cheap, but the teams that have won with a quarterback on a rookie deal haven't made this sort of move and felt good about it afterward. The Seahawks signed Bennett and Cliff Avril in free agency; the trade they made was to send draft picks and acquire Percy Harvin, which turned out to be the single worst move of general manager John Schneider's career. The Eagles added free agents without trading an enormous draft-pick haul for any one player to help out Carson Wentz. The Patriots have won under the current collective bargaining agreement with Tom Brady on a team-friendly deal, if not quite a rookie contract, but they haven't made this sort of trade while simultaneously handing out a market-value deal in the process.
For the Seahawks, this deal is easier to understand, although I think it's too simplistic to apply the popular logic going around. Yes, the Seahawks probably planned on moving on from Clark after handing Russell Wilson an extension with an annual average salary of $35 million per season. The baseline for a Clark deal would have been a third-round pick, given that the Seahawks could have theoretically netted the best possible compensatory selection if they let Clark leave in free agency.
This is a lot more than a third-rounder, of course, but the decision to move on from Clark is independent of this trade. The Seahawks, again, could have kept Clark and franchised him again before moving him next season. There's a chance they could have kept Clark and been a better football team in 2019. Schneider certainly could have found a way to squeeze a new deal for Clark on their cap, given that the Seahawks have $54 million in cap space in 2020 and a staggering $119 million in 2021. Those might have been better moves. Trading Clark doesn't in itself justify the decision to move on from Clark.
Given all those possibilities, though, I think I would rather have the extra draft capital in a class full of pass-rushers and defensive linemen and throw that at my defensive line as opposed to giving Clark $21 million per season on a new deal. The Seahawks had just four picks in this year's draft before making Tuesday's trade; now, they have the 21st and 29th picks and an extra second-rounder to work with in 2020.
Schneider should be able to draft a long-term replacement for Clark at No. 21 and shop the 29th pick to teams trying to move up to grab a player or merely secure a fifth-year option on the guy they want for an extra pick or two. He could also theoretically use his two first-rounders to trade up into the top 10 if a player such as Josh Allen or Montez Sweat falls to the 8-10 range. The Seahawks weren't winning a Super Bowl with Clark on their roster. The Chiefs might need to win one in 2019 to make this trade work.
Dominater wrote:Damn Cactus jack takin over
Yunsen wrote:I’m looking around the draft order of what we might be able to get trading down the 29th pick. Both Philly (53 and 57) and Houston (54 and 55) have multiple 2nd round picks that are interesting targets. Maybe a team like Giants (37, 95) or Jaguars (38, 98) want another first to take a QB. Lots of possibilities.
Note: I don’t really follow college football at all so I have 0 idea who we should target and draft.
Dominater wrote:Damn Cactus jack takin over
Seahawks get the best of Kansas City in Frank Clark trade
The Seattle Seahawks, fresh off of paying Russell Wilson a huge deal a week ago, traded edge defender Frank Clark to the Kansas City Chiefs in exchange for the 29th pick in this week’s draft, a 2020 second-round pick and a swap of 2019 third-rounders. The Chiefs and Clark have reportedly reached a five-year, $105.5-million deal ($63.5 guaranteed), pairing him with fellow 2019 offseason acquisition Alex Okafor (three years, $18 million) to form a new edge duo after years of a combination of Justin Houston, Dee Ford and Tamba Hali.
The deal makes a ton of sense for the Seahawks, who have surrendered first-rounders in previous drafts by trading for veterans like Percy Harvin and Jimmy Graham, as well as other high picks on the likes of Sheldon Richardson and Duane Brown. They came into the week with just four draft picks in total, so the additional capital should help a team that, despite some deficiencies in early-down play calling and a defense that was in the lower half of the league in EPA allowed, finished 10-6 and made the playoffs for the seventh time in nine years under Pete Caroll. With needs all over their defense, they should have no trouble getting a difference maker with the 21st and 29th overall picks in Thursday’s draft.
On the other hand, this appears to be a steep price for Kansas City to pay for a position that, relative to others, is not a need for their defense. As I wrote about earlier this offseason, the Chiefs were smart to trade Ford for a future pick – they were one of the best defenses in the NFL a season ago in producing pressure and generating sacks, but were 28th in expected points added – because they lacked talent and execution in the secondary. The New England Patriots threw quick passes at will to defeat them in the AFC Championship Game. Adding Tryann Mathieu (a top-15 secondary player in terms of WAR since 2013) certainly helps them, but they are still in real need of talent and depth on the outside – currently relying on journeyman signing Bashaud Breeland and 2018 undrafted free agent (and trade acquisition) Charvarius Ward on the outside of Kendall Fuller in their nickel defense.
At pick 29 they were likely going to have a chance at some subset of Greedy Williams, Byron Murphy, DeAndre Baker, David Long and Rock Ya-Sin to bolster that group. Now, with their highest picks sitting at Nos. 61 and 63, Kansas City will have a harder time acquiring starting-caliber talent this weekend, with trading up (usually a poor choice analytically) or trading for a veteran (where the pickings are slim) their best choices.
While this might be, in the grand scheme of things, picking nits – as the Chiefs having the league’s most valuable player in Patrick Mahomes and a schedule of opposing offenses (21st-most-difficult) that makes reversion upward towards the mean a real possibility defensively, it’s our view that the Seahawks got the best of this deal, setting up Wilson and company with the opportunity to acquire young talent and compete in the NFC West for the foreseeable future.
Dominater wrote:Damn Cactus jack takin over
Dominater wrote:Damn Cactus jack takin over
Cactus Jack wrote:So it begins...
Danny Darko wrote:stroke of genius we now own the end of round 1 with consecutive picks... really i mean this might be a nice play.
Dominater wrote:Damn Cactus jack takin over
Cactus Jack wrote:Danny Darko wrote:stroke of genius we now own the end of round 1 with consecutive picks... really i mean this might be a nice play.
Expect another trade down.
Dominater wrote:Damn Cactus jack takin over
