Draft Prediction Thread

[Sweezo]

Perhaps this could be lumped into the other thread, but I'd like to see what you guy project for the 1-4 picks in the draft this year given what we all know so far. Here's what I think happens...

1. M. Stafford -- Detroit Lions
2. M. Sanchez -- St. Louis Rams
3. A. Curry -- KC Chiefs
4. J. Smith -- Seattle Seahawks

Why? Because Detroit needs a QB, St. Louis is making noise about wanting Sanchez...which may be nothing, but drafting them means they either have a replacement in waiting for an aging Mark Bulger or have a trade chip many other teams want that they could maybe move on draft day. I think it's risky and potentially stupid, but I don't see St. Louis as a franchise that has their **** together enough to just pick a tackle. It will be one of those moves where Kiper, Jr. freaks out and says 'that's not what I have as the top ranked player on my mock board' and it will be awesome.

Seattle has said they don't like investing high picks in linemen and that coaching is more important...but Ruskell likes Smith. That was obvious during the combine, and just because we've heard about Sanchez alot recently doesn't mean his opinion has changed. Ruskell recently made comments about signing Locklear and the plan to put him at LT not changing. Yeah, sure, given the people on the roster, I'm sure the plan hasn't changed. Doesn't mean it won't at the drop of a hat.

My preference would be to trade down and see about allowing us to draft Raji/T. Jackson later [Jackson seems like a good fit for this supposed West Coast defense line, and I certainly won't claim that as my idea] or Jenkins if he manages to slip far enough, acquire another 2nd round pick, and draft P. Chung and M. Unger.

That sounds like I'm being an Oregon homer, but I think Chung's a perfect fit at safety for this team, and Unger's a perfect fit as a lineman for a team that likes zone blocking [and he can play any spot on the line, which is nice considering our center sucks]. Adding a corner in the second, so long as he's not an oompa-loompa, also seems like a good bet if they can add picks.

But the 1-4 picks are my prediction. Anyone else?

[Big_Mac79]

I know I don't post here much but here goes what I believe will happen

Detroit - Matt Stafford - Detroit is going to go ahead with the Stafford pick. It will excite their fans and I believe he will be a pretty decent QB. However their offensive line is weak I just do not think that Jason Smith is good enough to go number one. They can pickup an OT with the 2nd round pick. With their 20th overall pick I see them hoping that Rey Maualuga falls.

St. Louis - Jason Smith - I believe this is an easy pick. No Orlando Pace so bring in a young stud that can anchor the line for the future.

Kansas City - Aaron Curry - They newly implemented a 3-4 scheme and this guy seems perfect for the mold. They will have older vets in Vrabel and Zach Thomas that will be able to give him their tutelage on becoming a pro.

Seattle - Michael Crabtree - Now this pick may seem outrageous but I believe that picking here is not likely to happen. I believe that Seattle will have many suitors to trade with. I believe that they should be able to trade back and address other needs. I think it depends where exactly they trade to with what position they will address. With Jacksonville at #8 look for Crabtree or Raji to be the pick. With Denver at 12 look for Cushing or Jenkins. I love Michael Crabtree and think he can be a dominant reciever for Seattle. 2nd round I'm looking for a RB. Looking at either McCoy or Donald Brown. McCoy however did disappoint in the bowl game I believe either one would be a good fit and if Knowshon fell oh how sweet that would be.

[Ex-hippie]

Agree with Big_Mac79 for the first three picks. And while I would be intrigued by Crabtree at #4, my strong preference with this pick is Eugene Monroe. Like Curry, Monroe has very little downside, which is no small consideration with all the guaranteed money being given out. Crabtree would be an exciting pick, but Monroe is a guy who is going to be, at minimum, a very good starting left tackle for a long time.

Making absolutely no assumptions about who is off the board at #4, my preference would be in this order: (1) Curry, (2) Jason Smith, (3) Monroe, (4) Stafford, (5) Sanchez, (6) Crabtree, (7) trade down and stockpile more picks. I would be okay with any of these, really. I might be tempted to elevate Monroe above Smith, too, based on readiness.

So, basically, I'm bracing myself for the announcement that the team has drafted Brian Orakpo or Tyson Jackson with the #4 pick. That's what Ruskell does to me on draft day. I get all excited about the many possibilities when the team is on the clock for its first pick, and then when the pick is announced my reaction is "um... what?" (And, of course, none of those picks have done a damn thing to make me feel better.) This time I might throw a shoe at my TV.

[Bulltalk]

I have so many voices in my head talking by the time I reach draft day I can barely hear my own thoughts. Softy and Hugh Millen are doing their annual mock draft on KJR in Seattle now. Here's how it went for them:

1) Aaron Curry
2) Jason Smith
3) Tyson Jackson
4) Matthew Stafford

I've been so hyped-out recently by the Sanchez whirly-gig that I'm now convinced that Sanchez's leadership qualities transcend whatever benefits that Stafford may possess in the skill department. It seems pretty much a consensus, however, that Stafford has as good of an arm as you're going to get in a QB in this or any other year.

I don't know, Sweezo. If Detroit doesn't take Stafford, it throws things a little out of kilter. My feelings at the moment are that the Hawks will take Curry if available, and if he's not, they will take the best offer for the 4th pick that they can find.

Did you listen to the Hawks' general management press conference on the radio yesterday? Maybe not, but I did because I took the day off from work. Boy did I get some "tells" from it. These statements/thoughts jumped out at me:

--The NFL has to change the pay scale of the top picks (translation: the Hawks don't want to spend THAT much money using the 4th pick)

--There isn't that much separation in talent in the first round, especially in the picks 15-25 (translation: grooming press and fans for a possible trade-down in the draft)

--This is a very deep year for WR's in the draft, good ones will be available in the 2nd-3rd round (translation: don't get your hopes up on us taking Crabtree)

--This is a deep year for OLmen (translation: we could get a quality OLman later in the draft)

Points one and two were reiterated in the conference. I think the Hawks would love to work out something with the Jets, Redskins, or even some surprise team who wants either Stafford or Sanchez. If the Lions don't take Stafford (still seems they will), the Hawks could end up being in the position of having both Stafford and Sanchez available to them. Hmm... I wonder what opportunities that might open up for them, a team that might really want Stafford, for instance, and a team that that could make it possible for them to have him.

Right now I see it as:

1) Take Curry if available
2) Try to trade down for more picks---pick Stafford or Sanchez for another team--make trade)
3) Pick Sanchez and keep him (I do think they like him)
4) Pick DE
5) Tie: Pick either Crabtree or Monroe

That's the priority order I'm sensing now, though I'm probably wrong.

[Bulltalk]

By the way, hippie, my preferences would probably be:

1) Curry
2) Trade down for more picks
3) Smith/Monroe
4) Sanchez
5) Crabtree

I must say, however, these choices are REAL close to me, and I'm still vacillating on them by the hour. I'm just not as adverse as some are to getting that franchise QB now if they truly believe either Stafford or Sanchez is such a player. I know next year's draft will probably offer good 1st and 2nd round choices for a QB, but I couldn't argue heavily over such a pick.

[Bulltalk]

I know I don't post here much but here goes what I believe will happen

Detroit - Matt Stafford - Detroit is going to go ahead with the Stafford pick. It will excite their fans and I believe he will be a pretty decent QB. However their offensive line is weak I just do not think that Jason Smith is good enough to go number one. They can pickup an OT with the 2nd round pick. With their 20th overall pick I see them hoping that Rey Maualuga falls.

St. Louis - Jason Smith - I believe this is an easy pick. No Orlando Pace so bring in a young stud that can anchor the line for the future.

Kansas City - Aaron Curry - They newly implemented a 3-4 scheme and this guy seems perfect for the mold. They will have older vets in Vrabel and Zach Thomas that will be able to give him their tutelage on becoming a pro.

Seattle - Michael Crabtree - Now this pick may seem outrageous but I believe that picking here is not likely to happen. I believe that Seattle will have many suitors to trade with. I believe that they should be able to trade back and address other needs. I think it depends where exactly they trade to with what position they will address. With Jacksonville at #8 look for Crabtree or Raji to be the pick. With Denver at 12 look for Cushing or Jenkins. I love Michael Crabtree and think he can be a dominant reciever for Seattle. 2nd round I'm looking for a RB. Looking at either McCoy or Donald Brown. McCoy however did disappoint in the bowl game I believe either one would be a good fit and if Knowshon fell oh how sweet that would be.

Hey, pop in every once in awhile and let us know what you're thinking. We could use some more Hawks' fans populating this forum.

[Big_Mac79]

--The NFL has to change the pay scale of the top picks (translation: the Hawks don't want to spend THAT much money using the 4th pick)

--There isn't that much separation in talent in the first round, especially in the picks 15-25 (translation: grooming press and fans for a possible trade-down in the draft)

--This is a very deep year for WR's in the draft, good ones will be available in the 2nd-3rd round (translation: don't get your hopes up on us taking Crabtree)

--This is a deep year for OLmen (translation: we could get a quality OLman later in the draft)

I didn't here the radio spot but here's what I see

1) Trade back - Nobody at the top is that interesting to me This would be ideal for me
2) WRs? - other than Crabtree noone really looks like a number 1 type wideout - I don't believe TJ is one either that's why I would choose Crabman
3)OL - not a priority in my mind especially seeing how deep it is

Another thing - if Stafford was to fall I say take him. I don't believe that the Hawks will have another chance for awhile to draft a franchise QB and Sanchez is not one in my mind

[Ex-hippie]

Another thing - if Stafford was to fall I say take him. I don't believe that the Hawks will have another chance for awhile to draft a franchise QB and Sanchez is not one in my mind

I like Stafford too. I don't quite get all the criticism. There's this statistical formula based on total college stats that predicts he will bust in the pros. The problem is, it uses his combined stats over his entire college career and is based on the premise that college QBs have only limited room for improvement in the pros. But Stafford already has improved, dramatically, over his freshman year. They should at least use the player he is now as a starting point. In the pre-draft process he's done everything right, he's aced the Wonderlic, he's proven to be more mobile than people thought... to me he looks like a worthy franchise QB.

On Sanchez: I saw a video spot with Todd McShay in which he said Seattle would be the absolutely ideal situation for Sanchez. Of course, the focus is all wrong -- not to be cold and uncaring towards a human being, but I don't care whether Seattle is a good situation for Sanchez nearly as much as whether Sanchez is a good situation for Seattle. Still, he seems to be a hot commodity these days, so who am I to argue?

Of course, if someone asked me to name three teams that seem to have (Please Use More Appropriate Word) monkeys doing their talent evaluations, I'd probably say Washington, Denver and the NY Jets, and those just happen to be the three teams rumored to want to trade up for Sanchez....