GAME #6: PELS @ CLIPPERS—SUNDAY 10/30 NOON

[og15]

The Bucks last season were 4-6 after 10 games and 6-8 after 14 games including a 42 points loss to Miami. This was partly due to Jrue Holiday missing 6 of the first 8 games and Middleton missing games 7-14. The Grizzlies started off 10-10 and won 56 games. It's too tough to gauge a whole season at this point in time, especially since teams of course make adjustments to counteract why they are losing.

There's a glaring problem with this analysis.

The Bucks had Giannis, a young star in his prime. Memphis had Ja, a young star in his prime, surrounded by other young athletic players.

I'd say we have Kawhi, but he never actually plays anymore. PG has been one of the worst players on the team this season and has never been the most reliable star. Most of the remaining roster is either old and slow or Lue is too blinded by favoritism to play them. This team isn't just struggling, they look hopeless, like one of the worst teams in the league.

We have a retirement home roster in a league full of youth and athleticism. I hope there's a magical turnaround, but there is nothing at all that's pointing to it. The roster is just the worst possible fit for the modern NBA, and it's compounded by the fact that Lue has no system and no clue.

Memphis was 20-5 without Morant, including two 5 game win streaks and a 7 game win streak, yea, younger and more athletic helps, but the superstar part wasn't why they ended up with 56.

No coach has no system, and Lue can't go from getting the team to the WCF to having no clue. Of course it is always easier for us to coach from the sidelines and yell everything a coach should have done.

Of course there's going to be some reason that every team that starts slow turns it around, that's how it works. We can't simply say, "well that team had a reason, so it can't work here because the reason isn't exactly the same". Talent is always the reason, if you have talent, you can figure it out. The Celtics were 19-21 after 40 games and won 51 games and went to the finals.

It doesn't matter how unreliable, trash, whatever else PG can be called, he isn't going to shoot 36% FG or less in 80% of his games this season and he isn't going to shoot 26% or lower from 3PT range this season. So that normalizing is basically going to add around 2 ppg to the offense on it's own. Norman Powell is not going to shoot <40% FG and <25% 3PT for the season, that normalizing will add another 2 ppg to the offense. He's a career 1.2 tpg player in 22 mpg averaging 3 tpg without any increased playmaking role causing it.

There are just a lot of things going on that simply don't last for a whole season, so when we have enough games for those things to correct, then at least we can make bigger picture claims. After 6 games, sure, we can say they aren't the most athletic, but the most athletic isn't who ends up winning. We can also say they have started slow, disorganized, whatever else, but it doesn't project anything concrete 6 games in.

Also in the end, if Kawhi isn't playing, this team is not any sort of contender, so I'm certainly not going to be concerned about any great team or contending expectations if he isn't expected to be part of the solution.

[og15]

We are currently averaging 100.7 PPG as a team. Guess where that ranks us in the league? That's right, dead last. We are actually doing pretty good in defensive stats so far. This team relies heavily on 3s and so far our 3pt% is among the worst in the league. Until that starts to turn around, and PG starts to play better, it won't be pretty.

Yes, the Clippers are currently similar to Lakers level of offensive aptitude and worse than a team like the Magic. I doubt the Clippers wouldn't be able to outperform the Magic offensively after 10 more games. Now of course the goal isn't being better than the Magic, but my point is the team doesn't lack shooters, Powell and PG won't be 25% 3PT shooters for the season, and the Clippers aren't likely to average more TPG than last seasons Houston Rockets for the season.

There are just too many things that can and will easily improve over time that when you add them all together will basically add another 10 ppg to the offense just from "normalizing". Every season people try to fight against the reality of law of averages in early season outliers, but every season it proves true. Players simply don't just drastically change in performance unless there's a big outside force (injuries, etc) directing that change.

[nickhx2]

guys it makes me so sad that this clippers team and all its players are going to play EXACTLY they way they have the past 6 games and have the EXACT same averages and NEVER going to even bother getting better and it only happens to EXACTLY us in all of the history of sports EXACTLY ever

one time i would just really like to root for a team where maybe the players get better or figure things out, or at least have a coach that might try different things or make adjustments, even though i know we're all used to it being the exact opposite

[Clemenza]

My theory is I think this line up is cooked as a collective. It was cooked last year in the play in games. What was going to save it was Kawhi playing and being the team anchor again. But he's not playing and the remaining players are like, "Sh*t, we gotta do this scrappy overachieving thing all over again for possibly 82 games".

You can tell PG, Reggie, Morris, etc. were looking for some relief this season in Kawhi being back. Now PG is back under the gun to be that guy to carry everyone but in the process he's lost a step. Sadly we're still relying on Reggie to be Playoff Reggie in game 5 of the new season. Norm's game is wild asf. Morris will be on and off. Mann peaked two years ago. He gets stronger but his offensive game gets weaker. Our small ball lineup is also washed. Kennard, Zu, and Wall look good. Need to mix in some youth but the starting five looks finished. They can't do the gusty thing every season. This was supposed to be the "help is on the way-relief" season

[MartinToVaught]

Memphis was 20-5 without Morant, including two 5 game win streaks and a 7 game win streak, yea, younger and more athletic helps, but the superstar part wasn't why they ended up with 56.

They still had plenty of young, athletic, energetic players who could handle the grind of the regular season. Unlike us, Memphis has a front office who's consistently great at scouting in the draft and coaches who develop young players.

We have old, slow fossils who are constantly wearing down and getting injured while guys like Coffey and Moussa waste away on the bench because of Lue's favoritism.

No coach has no system

Praying for PG and Reggie to bail us out with "your turn, my turn" isoball isn't a system. Anyone can do that. A random fan from the stands could do that. Lue's job is to get these guys to play as a team, and he gets an F- so far.

It doesn't matter how unreliable, trash, whatever else PG can be called, he isn't going to shoot 36% FG or less in 80% of his games this season and he isn't going to shoot 26% or lower from 3PT range this season. So that normalizing is basically going to add around 2 ppg to the offense on it's own.

The thing with PG is that he gets lost in his own head really easily. The more he struggles, the more it can snowball into a self-fulfilling prophecy, as we already saw in the bubble a couple years ago. He probably won't stay this bad, but it's not hard to imagine him continuing to play well below the level you'd expect from someone we traded the farm for, and that's still a huge problem.

[og15]

Memphis was 20-5 without Morant, including two 5 game win streaks and a 7 game win streak, yea, younger and more athletic helps, but the superstar part wasn't why they ended up with 56.

They still had plenty of young, athletic, energetic players who could handle the grind of the regular season. Unlike us, Memphis has a front office who's consistently great at scouting in the draft and coaches who develop young players.

We have old, slow fossils who are constantly wearing down and getting injured while guys like Coffey and Moussa waste away on the bench because of Lue's favoritism.

No coach has no system

Praying for PG and Reggie to bail us out with "your turn, my turn" isoball isn't a system. Anyone can do that. A random fan from the stands could do that. Lue's job is to get these guys to play as a team, and he gets an F- so far.

It doesn't matter how unreliable, trash, whatever else PG can be called, he isn't going to shoot 36% FG or less in 80% of his games this season and he isn't going to shoot 26% or lower from 3PT range this season. So that normalizing is basically going to add around 2 ppg to the offense on it's own.

The thing with PG is that he gets lost in his own head really easily. The more he struggles, the more it can snowball into a self-fulfilling prophecy, as we already saw in the bubble a couple years ago. He probably won't stay this bad, but it's not hard to imagine him continuing to play well below the level you'd expect from someone we traded the farm for, and that's still a huge problem.

Time is always a factor. It takes around 10 games to assess the strength of a lineup early in the season. I can't call any lineup decisions favoritism 6 games into a season.

Systems are always only as good as the players on the team and their willingness and ability to run it. George got a lot of good looks yesterday. His looks were much better than 5/19 FG. Regardless of any mental fortitude, no good player is going to keep missing that many of those types of looks. The same looks on an average night should have at least had him at around 8-9 makes, nothing amazing, but much better.

Reggie Jackson as a starter is solid when Kawhi is starting because it puts him into the set up role where he's mainly a spot up shooter. Without Kawhi he's put into more of a playmaker role, which ideally I'd want little of that. 7 of Reggie's 12 FGA were three's, 5 were catch and shoot. 2 off the dribble and one of those two was late clock where he had to shoot. He got the offensive rebound off the other one and made a floater, that's 8 of his shots. He missed a hook after George passed to him in transition, 9. He missed a runner in semi-transition, then got his own rebound and tipped it in, that's 11 FGA. The other shot he took, he came off a screen, got a re-screen after the catch and then a one dribble pull up off pick and roll which he made.

Reggie had zero isolation plays this game. His assists came off swinging the ball and one was what I call a fake assist where he passed to Morris who held the ball, dribbled and stepped back and it was an "assist". His turnovers were mainly bad passes and he had one offensive foul trying to go down hill while bringing the ball up. His attempts were fine, just missed too much. His passing decision making and driving into a crowd, not so much.

Paul George is definitely not the most mentally tough player, just a reality of life that people's biology and upbringing are different and those are the things that contribute to these attributes. There's no snap of a finger to make such things go away.

In terms of the George trade stuff, 4 seasons later I'm not really going to be rehashing what he was traded for. There's nothing new to add to that. We all know part of why so much was traded for George was because it came with getting Kawhi. We all know if Kawhi wasn't part of the deal, they wouldn't have traded that much for George, actually wouldn't have traded for him at all. For sure, expectations are higher than 19/7/4 on 39/26 (50.4 TS% which would be a career low) with 3.6 tpg, no disagreement there. If he improves but is below 22-25 ppg on 57-58% TS or higher, then yes, it will 100% be unimpressive.

I'll give him until game 20 to see how he's trending. Due to Kawhi's lack of availability, I'm also preferring a move of Wall into the starting lineup to let him take care of primary playmaking and for George to focus on scoring.

That also means doing a few less triangle sets and setting up more George coming off pin downs and using the high pick and roll with Wall/Zubac and a spread floor as a primary means of attacking.

[madmaxmedia]

100% with OG on this. There's a lot to be concerned about, but not panic button yet. Panic will be if in 20 games the trend line hasn't changed, and/or Kawhi is obviously not right.

We got punched right in the teeth...good now let's see how Lue can get these guys to respond.

One thing we did know all along is we are an older team that relies heavily on jump shooting and 3's. Two years ago we shot 41% from 3 as a team, right now we're at 31.5%. We're going to need to be in the high 30's IMO to be a true contender (of course our 3PT success is dependent on several factors, most of which are not going well right now...)

[KL2]

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