ImageImageImageImageImage

We Need 1st Round Draft Picks That Are Not Subject to Pick Swaps

Moderators: og15, TrueLAfan

og15
Forum Mod - Clippers
Forum Mod - Clippers
Posts: 50,650
And1: 33,402
Joined: Jun 23, 2004
Location: NBA Fan
 

Re: We Need 1st Round Draft Picks That Are Not Subject to Pick Swaps 

Post#21 » by og15 » Fri Jun 21, 2024 10:03 am

esqtvd wrote:
og15 wrote:
The NBA management does not like the idea of
bad team with no draft picks, it limits their ability to improve and it takes away fan engagement. Fans actually tend to like tanking when it's their own team and they can see the possible outcome, and fans love draft picks. We think even every 2nd round pick just needs minutes and development and he will be a rotation player.


Middling treadmill teams are not liked by fans, but for the NBA management, a team that constantly wins pretty well, fills arenas and makes the playoffs, but does not control its own draft position for a few seasons is not a problem at all.


Not sure about that. Trash teams like the Hornets and Pistons mean tons of empty seats when they're the visiting team. Perennial losers are bad for business. The Stepien rule forces them to keep a few lottery tickets and maybe get lucky.

Teams like the Hornets and Pistons are actually not the type of teams that trade a lot of draft picks though. Those teams generally have all their draft picks but just squander everything.

Teams who trade a lot of picks are usually teams trying to go from good to great and who already have other good player assets on the roster, the example you are giving are the exact opposite teams. The NBA does not like those teams because they are just usually trash despite all their draft picks.

That's why I said treadmill teams, lottery teams aren't treadmill teams. What we call treadmill teams are teams winning 45-50 ish games on a yearly basis but without having a real chance to be a true contender (Blazers with Lillard and McCollum), the league likes those teams because they are still good and fans still watch those teams and fill up arenas. Hornets and Pistons don't do that. Pistons have averaged like 24-25 wins for the past 4-5 years, have had all their draft picks and are trash. You think the NBA wouldn't rather have them have had no control over their draft but have been winning 40-45 games?

Or did you mean that fans do not like those teams? I might have misunderstood you. Fans of opposing teams, yes, they don't want to see your tanking team, and to be real, many fans of multiple year tanking teams, even if they say they want a tank instead of the treadmill don't actually go watch the games while the team tanks :lol:

MartinToVaught wrote:
og15 wrote:Teams should not have to be protected from themselves in every single way, bad moves should still hurt.

Except the bad moves don't hurt the billionaire owners or multi-millionaire GMs and players. The only ones hurting are the fans, who are going to be less invested if their team's situation is hopeless, which then becomes a problem for the league in general.
You simply can't try and control everything in terms of preventing bad decisions. The NBA already says you can't trade picks 7 years away and can't trade back to back picks. If you have those restrictions and still mess up, that's on you. A team has to control at least their pick 7 years from now, and still has to have at least 3 picks in the next 6 drafts even if they might have to swap.

Which of course then means they will probably spend more on free agency if they don't benefit from losing, which means they will generally at least be a possible winning team, and I assure you Silver and his people are not mad at that sort of situation compared to perennial lottery teams.
User avatar
esqtvd
RealGM
Posts: 12,081
And1: 4,820
Joined: Jun 24, 2017
Location: LA LA LA LAND
Contact:
     

Re: We Need 1st Round Draft Picks That Are Not Subject to Pick Swaps 

Post#22 » by esqtvd » Fri Jun 21, 2024 6:14 pm

og15 wrote:
esqtvd wrote:
og15 wrote:
The NBA management does not like the idea of
bad team with no draft picks, it limits their ability to improve and it takes away fan engagement. Fans actually tend to like tanking when it's their own team and they can see the possible outcome, and fans love draft picks. We think even every 2nd round pick just needs minutes and development and he will be a rotation player.


Middling treadmill teams are not liked by fans, but for the NBA management, a team that constantly wins pretty well, fills arenas and makes the playoffs, but does not control its own draft position for a few seasons is not a problem at all.


Not sure about that. Trash teams like the Hornets and Pistons mean tons of empty seats when they're the visiting team. Perennial losers are bad for business. The Stepien rule forces them to keep a few lottery tickets and maybe get lucky.

Teams like the Hornets and Pistons are actually not the type of teams that trade a lot of draft picks though. Those teams generally have all their draft picks but just squander everything.

Teams who trade a lot of picks are usually teams trying to go from good to great and who already have other good player assets on the roster, the example you are giving are the exact opposite teams. The NBA does not like those teams because they are just usually trash despite all their draft picks.

That's why I said treadmill teams, lottery teams aren't treadmill teams. What we call treadmill teams are teams winning 45-50 ish games on a yearly basis but without having a real chance to be a true contender (Blazers with Lillard and McCollum), the league likes those teams because they are still good and fans still watch those teams and fill up arenas. Hornets and Pistons don't do that. Pistons have averaged like 24-25 wins for the past 4-5 years, have had all their draft picks and are trash. You think the NBA wouldn't rather have them have had no control over their draft but have been winning 40-45 games?

Or did you mean that fans do not like those teams? I might have misunderstood you. Fans of opposing teams, yes, they don't want to see your tanking team, and to be real, many fans of multiple year tanking teams, even if they say they want a tank instead of the treadmill don't actually go watch the games while the team tanks :lol:

MartinToVaught wrote:
og15 wrote:Teams should not have to be protected from themselves in every single way, bad moves should still hurt.

Except the bad moves don't hurt the billionaire owners or multi-millionaire GMs and players. The only ones hurting are the fans, who are going to be less invested if their team's situation is hopeless, which then becomes a problem for the league in general.
You simply can't try and control everything in terms of preventing bad decisions. The NBA already says you can't trade picks 7 years away and can't trade back to back picks. If you have those restrictions and still mess up, that's on you. A team has to control at least their pick 7 years from now, and still has to have at least 3 picks in the next 6 drafts even if they might have to swap.

Which of course then means they will probably spend more on free agency if they don't benefit from losing, which means they will generally at least be a possible winning team, and I assure you Silver and his people are not mad at that sort of situation compared to perennial lottery teams.


It's a valid argument, but all it proves is that even with the Stepien rule, organizations can STILL hopelessly suck. If not for the Stepien rule, there could be even more. And I don't think it's controversial to assert that perennially sucky franchises are bad for business, bad for the NBA brand, bad at the box office, bad for franchise evaluations and sale prices.

Like an eyesore house on your street. With no draft picks--or any decent chance at a high pick swapped away for years--a depleted franchise could really be a difficult sell.

    Ted Stepien became a legend for his approach to the NBA Draft with the Cavs

    Nowhere was Stepien more short-sighted than when it came to the NBA Draft. Desperate to win now, the Cavaliers would trade away future draft picks for players Stepien, Musselman, or Delaney thought could help the team immediately. The problem was they were very bad talent evaluators. To name one example of their misguided wheeling and dealing, the Cavaliers traded Bill Robinzine, along with two first round selections, to the Dallas Mavericks in exchange for Richard Washington and Jerome Whitehead. The team would play Whitehead in three games then waive him just 17 days after acquiring him while Washington averaged less than 10 points in 87 games over two seasons.

    Since the Cavaliers had already traded a separate first-round pick to Dallas for Mike Bratz, the Mavericks now owned the team’s first-rounders in 1983, 1984, and 1986. The Cavaliers then owned just one first-round pick from then until 1987. At this point, league commissioner Larry O’Brien stepped in, announcing that the league was temporarily disallowing the Cavaliers from making any more trades.

    A memo was distributed to every team stating that no trade with Cleveland could occur unless approved by league executive Joe Axelson. Nevertheless Axelson soon approved another Cleveland-Dallas transaction with Cleveland sending their 1985 first-rounder to Dallas for Geoff Huston. Axelson did note he was “obviously disturbed” by Cleveland’s decision-making though. Mavericks coach Dick Motta claimed, “I was afraid to go to lunch for fear that I’d miss a call from Cleveland.”

https://fansided.com/2022/06/30/nba-75-ted-stepien-almost-killed-cleveland-cavaliers/
Image Are We Having Fun Yet?
User avatar
MartinToVaught
RealGM
Posts: 15,705
And1: 17,777
Joined: Oct 19, 2014
     

Re: We Need 1st Round Draft Picks That Are Not Subject to Pick Swaps 

Post#23 » by MartinToVaught » Fri Jun 21, 2024 7:27 pm

og15 wrote:You simply can't try and control everything in terms of preventing bad decisions.

Nobody's asking the NBA to control everything, just stop letting the Prestis and Ainges circumvent a rule that has already existed for decades.
Image
og15
Forum Mod - Clippers
Forum Mod - Clippers
Posts: 50,650
And1: 33,402
Joined: Jun 23, 2004
Location: NBA Fan
 

Re: We Need 1st Round Draft Picks That Are Not Subject to Pick Swaps 

Post#24 » by og15 » Fri Jun 21, 2024 9:28 pm

MartinToVaught wrote:
og15 wrote:You simply can't try and control everything in terms of preventing bad decisions.

Nobody's asking the NBA to control everything, just stop letting the Prestis and Ainges circumvent a rule that has already existed for decades.

If the league thought draft swaps were a problem, changes would have been made in the recent CBA.

I actually do not even think current consecutive pick rule is the best way, many times it just extends things longer.

The rule should be IMO:
1) Can't trade picks more than 5 seasons out
2) Can trade a maximum of three picks, either consecutive or alternating, have to choose one of the options.
3) If consecutive max of two picks, if alternating, max of 3 picks (1, 3 or 2, 4 or 3, 5 or 1, 3, 5)

Players contracts are no longer absurdly long, so the length should be 5 years, not 7 years, way too much changes with rosters these days in 7 years.

If you trade three picks in a row, you have to keep the next three, no trades allowed with the exception of draft night trade.

This way, if you want to trade first round picks for a star, you can trade your 2-3 firsts and instead of extending your traded picks over 4 or 6 seasons, you just get it over with in 2-3 years and move on.

esqtvd wrote:
og15 wrote:
esqtvd wrote:
Not sure about that. Trash teams like the Hornets and Pistons mean tons of empty seats when they're the visiting team. Perennial losers are bad for business. The Stepien rule forces them to keep a few lottery tickets and maybe get lucky.

Teams like the Hornets and Pistons are actually not the type of teams that trade a lot of draft picks though. Those teams generally have all their draft picks.

Teams who trade a lot of picks are usually teams trying to go from good to great and who already have other good player assets on the roster, the example you are giving are the exact opposite teams. The NBA does not like those teams because they are just usually trash despite all their draft picks.

That's why I said treadmill teams, lottery teams aren't treadmill teams. What we call treadmill teams are teams winning 45-50 ish games on a yearly basis but without having a real chance to be a true contender (Blazers with Lillard and McCollum), the league likes those teams because they are still good and fans still watch those teams and fill up arenas. Hornets and Pistons don't do that. Pistons have averaged like 24-25 wins for the past 4-5 years, have had all their draft picks and are trash. You think the NBA wouldn't rather have them have had no control over their draft but have been winning 40-45 games?

Or did you mean that fans do not like those teams? I might have misunderstood you. Fans of opposing teams, yes, they don't want to see your tanking team, and to be real, many fans of multiple year tanking teams, even if they say they want a tank instead of the treadmill don't actually go watch the games while the team tanks :lol:

MartinToVaught wrote:Except the bad moves don't hurt the billionaire owners or multi-millionaire GMs and players. The only ones hurting are the fans, who are going to be less invested if their team's situation is hopeless, which then becomes a problem for the league in general.
You simply can't try and control everything in terms of preventing bad decisions. The NBA already says you can't trade picks 7 years away and can't trade back to back picks. If you have those restrictions and still mess up, that's on you. A team has to control at least their pick 7 years from now, and still has to have at least 3 picks in the next 6 drafts even if they might have to swap.

Which of course then means they will probably spend more on free agency if they don't benefit from losing, which means they will generally at least be a possible winning team, and I assure you Silver and his people are not mad at that sort of situation compared to perennial lottery teams.


It's a valid argument, but all it proves is that even with the Stepien rule, organizations can STILL hopelessly suck. If not for the Stepien rule, there could be even more. And I don't think it's controversial to assert that perennially sucky franchises are bad for business, bad for the NBA brand, bad at the box office, bad for franchise evaluations and sale prices.

Like an eyesore house on your street. With no draft picks--or any decent chance at a high pick swapped away for years--a depleted franchise could really be a difficult sell.

    Ted Stepien became a legend for his approach to the NBA Draft with the Cavs

    Nowhere was Stepien more short-sighted than when it came to the NBA Draft. Desperate to win now, the Cavaliers would trade away future draft picks for players Stepien, Musselman, or Delaney thought could help the team immediately. The problem was they were very bad talent evaluators. To name one example of their misguided wheeling and dealing, the Cavaliers traded Bill Robinzine, along with two first round selections, to the Dallas Mavericks in exchange for Richard Washington and Jerome Whitehead. The team would play Whitehead in three games then waive him just 17 days after acquiring him while Washington averaged less than 10 points in 87 games over two seasons.

    Since the Cavaliers had already traded a separate first-round pick to Dallas for Mike Bratz, the Mavericks now owned the team’s first-rounders in 1983, 1984, and 1986. The Cavaliers then owned just one first-round pick from then until 1987. At this point, league commissioner Larry O’Brien stepped in, announcing that the league was temporarily disallowing the Cavaliers from making any more trades.

    A memo was distributed to every team stating that no trade with Cleveland could occur unless approved by league executive Joe Axelson. Nevertheless Axelson soon approved another Cleveland-Dallas transaction with Cleveland sending their 1985 first-rounder to Dallas for Geoff Huston. Axelson did note he was “obviously disturbed” by Cleveland’s decision-making though. Mavericks coach Dick Motta claimed, “I was afraid to go to lunch for fear that I’d miss a call from Cleveland.”

https://fansided.com/2022/06/30/nba-75-ted-stepien-almost-killed-cleveland-cavaliers/

I never argued against the Stepien rule, I'm saying we shouldn't be complaining that teams should also not be able to do swaps. The league has to protect its assets, but the league shouldn't have to hand hold franchises. If you do really stupid things, you should be allowed to feel the effects.

Of course what we actually see isn't teams stuck in being bad due to pick swaps, what we see is teams who stay in lottery but keep sucking year in a year out.

That's why the NBA has made rules and has done things to address tanking in their CBA but have not done anything to address pick swaps. The reason is that it is consistent tanking that has produced their garbage unwatchable teams.

The Pistons have been trash for a long time:
2019: 15th, 45th
2020: 7th
2021: 1st, 37th, 42nd, 52nd
2022: 5th, 46th
2023: 5th, 31st

This season they will have 5th and 54th

If they are trash next year again, that will be 4 seasons (2020-2024) with 4 top 5 picks (one 7th) and a total of 5 1sts and 6 2nds with nothing to show.

The Hornets have had a first round pick they kept in 8/10 past seasons. Past 5 years they have had 12, 3, 11, 13 (traded draft night) and 15, 2. Two top 3 picks for them, even better.

Now there's some luck here. Pistons keep falling out of top 3. If they got Wemby it changes their trajectory, though how well they can actually build something great around him based on recent history is unknown, but questionable.
User avatar
esqtvd
RealGM
Posts: 12,081
And1: 4,820
Joined: Jun 24, 2017
Location: LA LA LA LAND
Contact:
     

Re: We Need 1st Round Draft Picks That Are Not Subject to Pick Swaps 

Post#25 » by esqtvd » Fri Jun 21, 2024 9:45 pm

og15 wrote:I never argued against the Stepien rule, I'm saying we shouldn't be complaining that teams should also not be able to do swaps. The league has to protect its assets, but the league shouldn't have to hand hold franchises. If you do really stupid things, you should be allowed to feel the effects.

Of course what we actually see isn't teams stuck in being bad due to pick swaps, what we see is teams who stay in lottery but keep sucking year in a year out.

That's why the NBA has made rules and has done things to address tanking in their CBA but have not done anything to address pick swaps. The reason is that it is consistent tanking that has produced their garbage unwatchable teams.

The Pistons have been trash for a long time:
2019: 15th, 45th
2020: 7th
2021: 1st, 37th, 42nd, 52nd
2022: 5th, 46th
2023: 5th, 31st

This season they will have 5th and 54th

If they are trash next year again, that will be 4 seasons (2020-2024) with 4 top 5 picks (one 7th) and a total of 5 1sts and 6 2nds with nothing to show.

The Hornets have had a first round pick they kept in 8/10 past seasons. Past 5 years they have had 12, 3, 11, 13 (traded draft night) and 15, 2. Two top 3 picks for them, even better.

Now there's some luck here. Pistons keep falling out of top 3. If they got Wemby it changes their trajectory, though how well they can actually build something great around him based on recent history is unknown, but questionable.



Remember, the league had to seize control of the New Orleans Hornets only 14 years ago, the franchise was so inept and depleted. They were not protecting the owner from himself, but the league from the owner.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nba-steps-in-to-take-over-new-orleans-hornets/

    Shinn has been trying since last spring to sell the team to Chouest, but those negotiations had stalled, and Stern said Shinn's urgency to sell his shares was increasing because he was accumulating debt at a rate he could not sustain.

    If the NBA had done nothing, Stern said, Shinn may have been inclined to take the next good offer he got, even if it came from a buyer that planned to move the team.

The changes you suggest to the Stepien rule are fine; they would perhaps serve the same purpose. But there can be no question that pick swaps weaken the Stepien rule. Pick swaps violate the purpose of the rule because the pick invariably falls into the 2nd half of the first round, where difference makers are extremely few and far between, and busts are plentiful. It's not hard to imagine a Charlotte or Detroit falling even further down the hole with ill-begotten pick swaps and devaluing their franchise even more.

Nobody benefits from horrible teams, empty seats, bad TV deals and cut-rate franchise valuations. If pick swaps aren't banned, maybe the changes you suggest would in fact be more effective than the current weakened Stepien rule.
Image Are We Having Fun Yet?
og15
Forum Mod - Clippers
Forum Mod - Clippers
Posts: 50,650
And1: 33,402
Joined: Jun 23, 2004
Location: NBA Fan
 

Re: We Need 1st Round Draft Picks That Are Not Subject to Pick Swaps 

Post#26 » by og15 » Fri Jun 21, 2024 10:00 pm

esqtvd wrote:
og15 wrote:I never argued against the Stepien rule, I'm saying we shouldn't be complaining that teams should also not be able to do swaps. The league has to protect its assets, but the league shouldn't have to hand hold franchises. If you do really stupid things, you should be allowed to feel the effects.

Of course what we actually see isn't teams stuck in being bad due to pick swaps, what we see is teams who stay in lottery but keep sucking year in a year out.

That's why the NBA has made rules and has done things to address tanking in their CBA but have not done anything to address pick swaps. The reason is that it is consistent tanking that has produced their garbage unwatchable teams.

The Pistons have been trash for a long time:
2019: 15th, 45th
2020: 7th
2021: 1st, 37th, 42nd, 52nd
2022: 5th, 46th
2023: 5th, 31st

This season they will have 5th and 54th

If they are trash next year again, that will be 4 seasons (2020-2024) with 4 top 5 picks (one 7th) and a total of 5 1sts and 6 2nds with nothing to show.

The Hornets have had a first round pick they kept in 8/10 past seasons. Past 5 years they have had 12, 3, 11, 13 (traded draft night) and 15, 2. Two top 3 picks for them, even better.

Now there's some luck here. Pistons keep falling out of top 3. If they got Wemby it changes their trajectory, though how well they can actually build something great around him based on recent history is unknown, but questionable.



Remember, the league had to seize control of the New Orleans Hornets only 14 years ago, the franchise was so inept and depleted. They were not protecting the owner from himself, but the league from the owner.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nba-steps-in-to-take-over-new-orleans-hornets/

    Shinn has been trying since last spring to sell the team to Chouest, but those negotiations had stalled, and Stern said Shinn's urgency to sell his shares was increasing because he was accumulating debt at a rate he could not sustain.

    If the NBA had done nothing, Stern said, Shinn may have been inclined to take the next good offer he got, even if it came from a buyer that planned to move the team.

The changes you suggest to the Stepien rule are fine; they would perhaps serve the same purpose. But there can be no question that pick swaps weaken the Stepien rule. Pick swaps violate the purpose of the rule because the pick invariably falls into the 2nd half of the first round, where difference makers are extremely few and far between, and busts are plentiful. It's not hard to imagine a Charlotte or Detroit falling even further down the hole with ill-begotten pick swaps and devaluing their franchise even more.

Nobody benefits from horrible teams, empty seats, bad TV deals and cut-rate franchise valuations. If pick swaps aren't banned, maybe the changes you suggest would in fact be more effective than the current weakened Stepien rule.


Swaps are on average as valuable as an early 2nd

The results suggest that pick swaps aren’t anywhere near as important as they might seem. Historically, a first-round pick swap has been only about as valuable as the no. 36 overall pick. That’s worth repeating: The average first-round pick swap returns second-round value! And several team executives agree that—within the league itself, and especially in the public view—swaps are overvalued in a trade for a star.


This example provides a much more typical outcome. Out of 31 times through the 2022 draft that a team could have swapped a first-rounder, it did so on only 12 occasions. That means in 61 percent of the league’s possible swaps to date, the swap ended up being worth nothing


What about those 12 exercised swaps? Many provided only a smidgeon of value for the team that was able to jump to a better pick, like a move from 20th to 18th, or 17th to 15th, or 26th to 18th. Some swaps—the Celtics-Nets exchange most of all—were much more valuable. But those were few and far between


Yet team executives also suggest that the league at large is overvaluing swaps because they offer the tantalizing glimmer of upside. One lead analyst compares swaps to the draft lottery itself—any individual tanking team probably won’t land the no. 1 pick, but it can still dream of that outcome. If a team adds a bunch of swap options—like the Rockets did in one big trade, or the Jazz did in separate transactions—then it increases the odds that at least one of them will hit big, like the Celtics did in 2017.

But as history demonstrates, that kind of jump requires a real outlier set of circumstances. Teams will likely keep trading stars for swap rights as the 2020s continue, but more often than not, those swaps will fade without much impact.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2022/10/12/23399637/nba-draft-swap-picks

The general perception of swap value comes from the Celtics/Nets trade, but that's actually the outlier. The reason people can't think of others is because they weren't significant and don't matter.

That's why I keep reminding us that if the league actually thought this was an issue they would have made a change. They obviously would look at the data on the value and impact on swaps and it simply is not showing anything they need to tackle.
User avatar
esqtvd
RealGM
Posts: 12,081
And1: 4,820
Joined: Jun 24, 2017
Location: LA LA LA LAND
Contact:
     

Re: We Need 1st Round Draft Picks That Are Not Subject to Pick Swaps 

Post#27 » by esqtvd » Sat Jun 22, 2024 12:16 am

og15 wrote:
esqtvd wrote:
og15 wrote:I never argued against the Stepien rule, I'm saying we shouldn't be complaining that teams should also not be able to do swaps. The league has to protect its assets, but the league shouldn't have to hand hold franchises. If you do really stupid things, you should be allowed to feel the effects.

Of course what we actually see isn't teams stuck in being bad due to pick swaps, what we see is teams who stay in lottery but keep sucking year in a year out.

That's why the NBA has made rules and has done things to address tanking in their CBA but have not done anything to address pick swaps. The reason is that it is consistent tanking that has produced their garbage unwatchable teams.

The Pistons have been trash for a long time:
2019: 15th, 45th
2020: 7th
2021: 1st, 37th, 42nd, 52nd
2022: 5th, 46th
2023: 5th, 31st

This season they will have 5th and 54th

If they are trash next year again, that will be 4 seasons (2020-2024) with 4 top 5 picks (one 7th) and a total of 5 1sts and 6 2nds with nothing to show.

The Hornets have had a first round pick they kept in 8/10 past seasons. Past 5 years they have had 12, 3, 11, 13 (traded draft night) and 15, 2. Two top 3 picks for them, even better.

Now there's some luck here. Pistons keep falling out of top 3. If they got Wemby it changes their trajectory, though how well they can actually build something great around him based on recent history is unknown, but questionable.





https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nba-steps-in-to-take-over-new-orleans-hornets/

    Shinn has been trying since last spring to sell the team to Chouest, but those negotiations had stalled, and Stern said Shinn's urgency to sell his shares was increasing because he was accumulating debt at a rate he could not sustain.

    If the NBA had done nothing, Stern said, Shinn may have been inclined to take the next good offer he got, even if it came from a buyer that planned to move the team.

The changes you suggest to the Stepien rule are fine; they would perhaps serve the same purpose. But there can be no question that pick swaps weaken the Stepien rule. Pick swaps violate the purpose of the rule because the pick invariably falls into the 2nd half of the first round, where difference makers are extremely few and far between, and busts are plentiful. It's not hard to imagine a Charlotte or Detroit falling even further down the hole with ill-begotten pick swaps and devaluing their franchise even more.

Nobody benefits from horrible teams, empty seats, bad TV deals and cut-rate franchise valuations. If pick swaps aren't banned, maybe the changes you suggest would in fact be more effective than the current weakened Stepien rule.


Swaps are on average as valuable as an early 2nd

The results suggest that pick swaps aren’t anywhere near as important as they might seem. Historically, a first-round pick swap has been only about as valuable as the no. 36 overall pick. That’s worth repeating: The average first-round pick swap returns second-round value! And several team executives agree that—within the league itself, and especially in the public view—swaps are overvalued in a trade for a star.


This example provides a much more typical outcome. Out of 31 times through the 2022 draft that a team could have swapped a first-rounder, it did so on only 12 occasions. That means in 61 percent of the league’s possible swaps to date, the swap ended up being worth nothing


What about those 12 exercised swaps? Many provided only a smidgeon of value for the team that was able to jump to a better pick, like a move from 20th to 18th, or 17th to 15th, or 26th to 18th. Some swaps—the Celtics-Nets exchange most of all—were much more valuable. But those were few and far between


Yet team executives also suggest that the league at large is overvaluing swaps because they offer the tantalizing glimmer of upside. One lead analyst compares swaps to the draft lottery itself—any individual tanking team probably won’t land the no. 1 pick, but it can still dream of that outcome. If a team adds a bunch of swap options—like the Rockets did in one big trade, or the Jazz did in separate transactions—then it increases the odds that at least one of them will hit big, like the Celtics did in 2017.

But as history demonstrates, that kind of jump requires a real outlier set of circumstances. Teams will likely keep trading stars for swap rights as the 2020s continue, but more often than not, those swaps will fade without much impact.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2022/10/12/23399637/nba-draft-swap-picks

The general perception of swap value comes from the Celtics/Nets trade, but that's actually the outlier. The reason people can't think of others is because they weren't significant and don't matter.

That's why I keep reminding us that if the league actually thought this was an issue they would have made a change. They obviously would look at the data on the value and impact on swaps and it simply is not showing anything they need to tackle.


True but not really applicable to the basket-case franchises. Stepien was an outlier but he made the rule necessary in the first place. Pick swaps cheat the purpose of the rule. If it hasn't been amended, it's because the lottery teams haven't been as stupid as Stepien. Yet.

The Clippers are exactly in that worst-case scenario, with every other pick gone and the rest swapped out. They have virtually zero chance to substantially improve the club through the draft through the rest of the decade. Fortunately Ballmer has the deepest pockets in sports and the best location and facilities but others aren't so well-heeled. The Buss family's wealth is entirely tied up in the team, and if they were in a second-rate city with a third-rate reputation, it's the George Shinn Hornets debacle all over again.

Swaps are on average as valuable as an early 2nd


On average, sure. But averages lie.

Image
Image Are We Having Fun Yet?
og15
Forum Mod - Clippers
Forum Mod - Clippers
Posts: 50,650
And1: 33,402
Joined: Jun 23, 2004
Location: NBA Fan
 

Re: We Need 1st Round Draft Picks That Are Not Subject to Pick Swaps 

Post#28 » by og15 » Sat Jun 22, 2024 1:36 am

esqtvd wrote:
og15 wrote:
esqtvd wrote:



https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nba-steps-in-to-take-over-new-orleans-hornets/

    Shinn has been trying since last spring to sell the team to Chouest, but those negotiations had stalled, and Stern said Shinn's urgency to sell his shares was increasing because he was accumulating debt at a rate he could not sustain.

    If the NBA had done nothing, Stern said, Shinn may have been inclined to take the next good offer he got, even if it came from a buyer that planned to move the team.

The changes you suggest to the Stepien rule are fine; they would perhaps serve the same purpose. But there can be no question that pick swaps weaken the Stepien rule. Pick swaps violate the purpose of the rule because the pick invariably falls into the 2nd half of the first round, where difference makers are extremely few and far between, and busts are plentiful. It's not hard to imagine a Charlotte or Detroit falling even further down the hole with ill-begotten pick swaps and devaluing their franchise even more.

Nobody benefits from horrible teams, empty seats, bad TV deals and cut-rate franchise valuations. If pick swaps aren't banned, maybe the changes you suggest would in fact be more effective than the current weakened Stepien rule.


Swaps are on average as valuable as an early 2nd

The results suggest that pick swaps aren’t anywhere near as important as they might seem. Historically, a first-round pick swap has been only about as valuable as the no. 36 overall pick. That’s worth repeating: The average first-round pick swap returns second-round value! And several team executives agree that—within the league itself, and especially in the public view—swaps are overvalued in a trade for a star.


This example provides a much more typical outcome. Out of 31 times through the 2022 draft that a team could have swapped a first-rounder, it did so on only 12 occasions. That means in 61 percent of the league’s possible swaps to date, the swap ended up being worth nothing


What about those 12 exercised swaps? Many provided only a smidgeon of value for the team that was able to jump to a better pick, like a move from 20th to 18th, or 17th to 15th, or 26th to 18th. Some swaps—the Celtics-Nets exchange most of all—were much more valuable. But those were few and far between


Yet team executives also suggest that the league at large is overvaluing swaps because they offer the tantalizing glimmer of upside. One lead analyst compares swaps to the draft lottery itself—any individual tanking team probably won’t land the no. 1 pick, but it can still dream of that outcome. If a team adds a bunch of swap options—like the Rockets did in one big trade, or the Jazz did in separate transactions—then it increases the odds that at least one of them will hit big, like the Celtics did in 2017.

But as history demonstrates, that kind of jump requires a real outlier set of circumstances. Teams will likely keep trading stars for swap rights as the 2020s continue, but more often than not, those swaps will fade without much impact.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2022/10/12/23399637/nba-draft-swap-picks

The general perception of swap value comes from the Celtics/Nets trade, but that's actually the outlier. The reason people can't think of others is because they weren't significant and don't matter.

That's why I keep reminding us that if the league actually thought this was an issue they would have made a change. They obviously would look at the data on the value and impact on swaps and it simply is not showing anything they need to tackle.


True but not really applicable to the basket-case franchises. Stepien was an outlier but he made the rule necessary in the first place. Pick swaps cheat the purpose of the rule. If it hasn't been amended, it's because the lottery teams haven't been as stupid as Stepien. Yet.

The Clippers are exactly in that worst-case scenario, with every other pick gone and the rest swapped out. They have virtually zero chance to substantially improve the club through the draft through the rest of the decade. Fortunately Ballmer has the deepest pockets in sports and the best location and facilities but others aren't so well-heeled. The Buss family's wealth is entirely tied up in the team, and if they were in a second-rate city with a third-rate reputation, it's the George Shinn Hornets debacle all over again.

Swaps are on average as valuable as an early 2nd


On average, sure. But averages lie.

Image

Basically if you avoid being the Brooklyn Nets, you won't end up too bad with pick swaps. Of course, yes, there's always the average vs the specific, but in the specifics of multiple different situations, pick swaps have not been lucrative.

Obviously part of the reason is that it's not usually bad teams who do pick swaps unlike the Nets trading for 36 and 37 year old Pierce and KG after they only led Boston to 41 wins and thinking they would be able to sustain anything for more than a year or two even if it did work. They won 44 and made the second round, then won 38 games and everything went downhill from there.

Go away from average and look at the spread:

Still, that makes for only three times out of 31 that a swap gave a team the equivalent of a top-20 pick or better, using Pelton’s values as a baseline


For the team receiving the swaps, they are just doing it as an additional lottery, they are hoping for the approximately 10 percent chance they get a return equal to a top 20 pick or better. They don't actually think that pick swaps are going to Net them all these multiple much better picks than they have, but it's about having the chance.
User avatar
esqtvd
RealGM
Posts: 12,081
And1: 4,820
Joined: Jun 24, 2017
Location: LA LA LA LAND
Contact:
     

Re: We Need 1st Round Draft Picks That Are Not Subject to Pick Swaps 

Post#29 » by esqtvd » Sat Jun 22, 2024 6:59 pm

og15 wrote:
esqtvd wrote:
og15 wrote:
Swaps are on average as valuable as an early 2nd

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2022/10/12/23399637/nba-draft-swap-picks

The general perception of swap value comes from the Celtics/Nets trade, but that's actually the outlier. The reason people can't think of others is because they weren't significant and don't matter.

That's why I keep reminding us that if the league actually thought this was an issue they would have made a change. They obviously would look at the data on the value and impact on swaps and it simply is not showing anything they need to tackle.


True but not really applicable to the basket-case franchises. Stepien was an outlier but he made the rule necessary in the first place. Pick swaps cheat the purpose of the rule. If it hasn't been amended, it's because the lottery teams haven't been as stupid as Stepien. Yet.

The Clippers are exactly in that worst-case scenario, with every other pick gone and the rest swapped out. They have virtually zero chance to substantially improve the club through the draft through the rest of the decade. Fortunately Ballmer has the deepest pockets in sports and the best location and facilities but others aren't so well-heeled. The Buss family's wealth is entirely tied up in the team, and if they were in a second-rate city with a third-rate reputation, it's the George Shinn Hornets debacle all over again.

Swaps are on average as valuable as an early 2nd


On average, sure. But averages lie.

Image

Basically if you avoid being the Brooklyn Nets, you won't end up too bad with pick swaps. Of course, yes, there's always the average vs the specific, but in the specifics of multiple different situations, pick swaps have not been lucrative.

Obviously part of the reason is that it's not usually bad teams who do pick swaps unlike the Nets trading for 36 and 37 year old Pierce and KG after they only led Boston to 41 wins and thinking they would be able to sustain anything for more than a year or two even if it did work. They won 44 and made the second round, then won 38 games and everything went downhill from there.

Go away from average and look at the spread:

Still, that makes for only three times out of 31 that a swap gave a team the equivalent of a top-20 pick or better, using Pelton’s values as a baseline


For the team receiving the swaps, they are just doing it as an additional lottery, they are hoping for the approximately 10 percent chance they get a return equal to a top 20 pick or better. They don't actually think that pick swaps are going to Net them all these multiple much better picks than they have, but it's about having the chance.



We're not disagreeing. My objections stand unmolested. Stipulated that pick swaps on average or the great majority of the time don't amount to much. But another Stepien could come along and exploit this loophole and end up where he did.

Also, the danger of the cumulative effect of trading both picks and pick swaps stands.

The Clippers are exactly in that worst-case scenario, with every other pick gone and the rest swapped out. They have virtually zero chance to substantially improve the club through the draft through the rest of the decade. Fortunately Ballmer has the deepest pockets in sports and the best location and facilities but others aren't so well-heeled. The Buss family's wealth is entirely tied up in the team, and if they were in a second-rate city with a third-rate reputation, it's the George Shinn Hornets debacle all over again.


Should we get another Stepien or Shinn situation, the league will close the loophole. And Ballmer's lucky he can probably still spend his way out of the colossal hole created by the 213 Experiment. But things are NOT good, bro.
Image Are We Having Fun Yet?
og15
Forum Mod - Clippers
Forum Mod - Clippers
Posts: 50,650
And1: 33,402
Joined: Jun 23, 2004
Location: NBA Fan
 

Re: We Need 1st Round Draft Picks That Are Not Subject to Pick Swaps 

Post#30 » by og15 » Sat Jun 22, 2024 9:02 pm

esqtvd wrote:
og15 wrote:
esqtvd wrote:
True but not really applicable to the basket-case franchises. Stepien was an outlier but he made the rule necessary in the first place. Pick swaps cheat the purpose of the rule. If it hasn't been amended, it's because the lottery teams haven't been as stupid as Stepien. Yet.

The Clippers are exactly in that worst-case scenario, with every other pick gone and the rest swapped out. They have virtually zero chance to substantially improve the club through the draft through the rest of the decade. Fortunately Ballmer has the deepest pockets in sports and the best location and facilities but others aren't so well-heeled. The Buss family's wealth is entirely tied up in the team, and if they were in a second-rate city with a third-rate reputation, it's the George Shinn Hornets debacle all over again.



On average, sure. But averages lie.

Image

Basically if you avoid being the Brooklyn Nets, you won't end up too bad with pick swaps. Of course, yes, there's always the average vs the specific, but in the specifics of multiple different situations, pick swaps have not been lucrative.

Obviously part of the reason is that it's not usually bad teams who do pick swaps unlike the Nets trading for 36 and 37 year old Pierce and KG after they only led Boston to 41 wins and thinking they would be able to sustain anything for more than a year or two even if it did work. They won 44 and made the second round, then won 38 games and everything went downhill from there.

Go away from average and look at the spread:

Still, that makes for only three times out of 31 that a swap gave a team the equivalent of a top-20 pick or better, using Pelton’s values as a baseline


For the team receiving the swaps, they are just doing it as an additional lottery, they are hoping for the approximately 10 percent chance they get a return equal to a top 20 pick or better. They don't actually think that pick swaps are going to Net them all these multiple much better picks than they have, but it's about having the chance.



We're not disagreeing. My objections stand unmolested. Stipulated that pick swaps on average or the great majority of the time don't amount to much. But another Stepien could come along and exploit this loophole and end up where he did.

Also, the danger of the cumulative effect of trading both picks and pick swaps stands.

The Clippers are exactly in that worst-case scenario, with every other pick gone and the rest swapped out. They have virtually zero chance to substantially improve the club through the draft through the rest of the decade. Fortunately Ballmer has the deepest pockets in sports and the best location and facilities but others aren't so well-heeled. The Buss family's wealth is entirely tied up in the team, and if they were in a second-rate city with a third-rate reputation, it's the George Shinn Hornets debacle all over again.


Should we get another Stepien or Shinn situation, the league will close the loophole. And Ballmer's lucky he can probably still spend his way out of the colossal hole created by the 213 Experiment. But things are NOT good, bro.

Oh yea, for sure if it turns out really bad in a situation the league won't like it, but I was responding to not just you but also the whole claims of the thread including the ones saying that the loophole should be closed and feeling it is some big detriment.

NBA simply has no reason to close it, and they won't just go on perception, they will look at the data which shows that for the many years it's been used it has been mainly insignificant.

If they weren't looking at the actual data they wouldn't be doing their jobs well.
User avatar
esqtvd
RealGM
Posts: 12,081
And1: 4,820
Joined: Jun 24, 2017
Location: LA LA LA LAND
Contact:
     

Re: We Need 1st Round Draft Picks That Are Not Subject to Pick Swaps 

Post#31 » by esqtvd » Sat Jun 22, 2024 9:24 pm

og15 wrote:
esqtvd wrote:
og15 wrote:Basically if you avoid being the Brooklyn Nets, you won't end up too bad with pick swaps. Of course, yes, there's always the average vs the specific, but in the specifics of multiple different situations, pick swaps have not been lucrative.

Obviously part of the reason is that it's not usually bad teams who do pick swaps unlike the Nets trading for 36 and 37 year old Pierce and KG after they only led Boston to 41 wins and thinking they would be able to sustain anything for more than a year or two even if it did work. They won 44 and made the second round, then won 38 games and everything went downhill from there.

Go away from average and look at the spread:



For the team receiving the swaps, they are just doing it as an additional lottery, they are hoping for the approximately 10 percent chance they get a return equal to a top 20 pick or better. They don't actually think that pick swaps are going to Net them all these multiple much better picks than they have, but it's about having the chance.



We're not disagreeing. My objections stand unmolested. Stipulated that pick swaps on average or the great majority of the time don't amount to much. But another Stepien could come along and exploit this loophole and end up where he did.

Also, the danger of the cumulative effect of trading both picks and pick swaps stands.

The Clippers are exactly in that worst-case scenario, with every other pick gone and the rest swapped out. They have virtually zero chance to substantially improve the club through the draft through the rest of the decade. Fortunately Ballmer has the deepest pockets in sports and the best location and facilities but others aren't so well-heeled. The Buss family's wealth is entirely tied up in the team, and if they were in a second-rate city with a third-rate reputation, it's the George Shinn Hornets debacle all over again.


Should we get another Stepien or Shinn situation, the league will close the loophole. And Ballmer's lucky he can probably still spend his way out of the colossal hole created by the 213 Experiment. But things are NOT good, bro.

Oh yea, for sure if it turns out really bad in a situation the league won't like it, but I was responding to not just you but also the whole claims of the thread including the ones saying that the loophole should be closed and feeling it is some big detriment.

NBA simply has no reason to close it, and they won't just go on perception, they will look at the data which shows that for the many years it's been used it has been mainly insignificant.

If they weren't looking at the actual data they wouldn't be doing their jobs well.


NBA Previously Considered Rule Banning Pick Swaps In Between Traded Picks
JUL 15, 2022 12:09 PM

For reasons given. The Clippers ARE in that situation now but fortunately Ballmer and his bottomless pockets can probably wriggle out of it.


    In 2017, the NBA considered a rule that would have banned teams from trading swap rights in between seasons in which it owed its first round pick outright, sources tell Zach Lowe of ESPN.

    The push was in response to the trade the Brooklyn Nets made with the Boston Celtics in 2013 that resulted in Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum ending up with Boston.

    The rule would have been a continuation of the Stepien Rule that prevents teams from trading first round picks in consecutive years.

    The rule never got far off the ground, but for several years teams became more conservative in trading away picks.

    ZACH LOWE/ESPN

Next up:

Read on Twitter


As the Durant experiment is circling the bowl, PHX could be a sick man for a very long time.

Image
Image Are We Having Fun Yet?

Return to Los Angeles Clippers