Blake Griffin the LONG two and the 3PT Shot

Post #1 » by **og15** » Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:32 pm

I know, this is the fear of some people. An interior player starting to shoot three's, "oh the horror". Okay, after we get over the sensationalism, let's take a look at Blake's scoring locations that support this, and then the counter.

15-19 feet: 254 FGA / 40.6% FG / 40.6 eFG%
20-24 feet: 125 FGA (5/9 3PA) / 39.2% FG / 41.2 eFG%
25-29 feet: 10 3PA / 30% 3PT / 45.0 eFG%

Blake takes 2.3 FGA from 20-24 feet. That range is what can be referred to as the NBA dead zone. He's assisted on 85.7% of those attempts. Blake taking mid-range shots is fine, he can't get everything at the rim or near the basket, but is there actual value in Blake taking 2.3 FGA/G from long mid-range if he could be taking 3PT shots instead?

Long mid-range shots have all the negatives of a 3PT shot (long rebounds, inconsistent), without the positive of extra points. Now, he won't shoot 39.2% 3PT if those were three's instead, but if he was able to shoot 32-33% 3PT, that's a much better offensive weapon than the LONG two.

Here is the video of all his 125 attempts from that range:
http://on.nba.com/1CFHK55

So many shots just inside the three point line or with his feet touching but just inside the line. If you want to shoot a mid-range jumper, shoot a mid-range jumper, but if you want to shoot long range jumper that is only worth two points, then you might as well shoot a 3PT shot.

Now of course you don't want to take shots you're uncomfortable with, but he's looked like he's fine taking the three, and if he's taking shots 0.5 feet from 3PT, then he should be comfortable. He should either keep his mid-range shots closer, or next season he should be taking about 2 3PA/G in place of most of those long mid-range jumpers he's taking.

Has anyone else seen felt this way?

nickhx2 · Post #2 » by **nickhx2** » Sat Mar 21, 2015 2:15 am

i generally agree with keeping away from the "worst shot in the game" but isn't there some undefinable value by actually taking the shot even if it's inefficient for him?

i would think that having a balanced array of proficient actions (pass/shoot/dribble) in such a dead zone of a spot, in the end, has some benefit, no? like, it could be tighter efficency-wise for him if he's taking less of those shots but it might not be as bad as we think.

Neddy · Post #3 » by **Neddy** » Sat Mar 21, 2015 2:27 am

og15 wrote:I know, this is the fear of some people. An interior player starting to shoot three's, "oh the horror". Okay, after we get over the sensationalism, let's take a look at Blake's scoring locations that support this, and then the counter.

15-19 feet: 254 FGA / 40.6% FG / 40.6 eFG%
20-24 feet: 125 FGA (5/9 3PA) / 39.2% FG / 41.2 eFG%
25-29 feet: 10 3PA / 30% 3PT / 45.0 eFG%

Blake takes 2.3 FGA from 20-24 feet. That range is what can be referred to as the NBA dead zone. He's assisted on 85.7% of those attempts. Blake taking mid-range shots is fine, he can't get everything at the rim or near the basket, but is there actual value in Blake taking 2.3 FGA/G from long mid-range if he could be taking 3PT shots instead?

Long mid-range shots have all the negatives of a 3PT shot (long rebounds, inconsistent), without the positive of extra points. Now, he won't shoot 39.2% 3PT if those were three's instead, but if he was able to shoot 32-33% 3PT, that's a much better offensive weapon than the LONG two.

Here is the video of all his 125 attempts from that range:
http://on.nba.com/1CFHK55

So many shots just inside the three point line or with his feet touching but just inside the line. If you want to shoot a mid-range jumper, shoot a mid-range jumper, but if you want to shoot long range jumper that is only worth two points, then you might as well shoot a 3PT shot.

Now of course you don't want to take shots you're uncomfortable with, but he's looked like he's fine taking the three, and if he's taking shots 0.5 feet from 3PT, then he should be comfortable. He should either keep his mid-range shots closer, or next season he should be taking about 2 3PA/G in place of most of those long mid-range jumpers he's taking.

Has anyone else seen felt this way?

absolutely.

in the end, basketball is a game of probabilities. if you take more chances on less efficient shots, you will lose some of your odds in your favor and start to play catch ups. this is blatantly displayed often when Jamal is cold and still chucking.
historically speaking, teams that were not very efficient had to be a great offensive rebounding team to win. conversely, if you are not a great offensive rebounding team to give your team more chances than your opponent, you better be a more efficiently scoring team.

i have not been a super fan of Blake imitating David West, and if anything I would rather have him take shots Elton used to take at around 12-15 feet jumpers.

Post #4 » by **og15** » Sat Mar 21, 2015 3:02 am

nickhx2 wrote:i generally agree with keeping away from the "worst shot in the game" but isn't there some undefinable value by actually taking the shot even if it's inefficient for him?

i would think that having a balanced array of proficient actions (pass/shoot/dribble) in such a dead zone of a spot, in the end, has some benefit, no? like, it could be tighter efficency-wise for him if he's taking less of those shots but it might not be as bad as we think.

I don't think it's "bad" per say, but it could be better. I'm just thinking that before the catch he should either be moving in a little or moving out a little, especially on the ones where he's 0.5 feet inside the 3PT line.

In previous years when his jumper was not as good, I always felt that he drifted back too far on his jumper. Many times he's open from 15-20 feet, but he drifts to 20 feet to take the shot instead of stepping in to take the 15 foot jumper.