Clippers record when bench players play less than their average minutes per game vs. more than their average in 24 games

[apet8945]

I was bored so I did this.

Clippers record when bench players play less than their average minutes per game vs. more than their average in 24 games so far. Also went ahead and put their total +/- of all games combined in the respective spots for **** and giggles.

Austin Rivers (23.1 mpg)

Less than: 10-3 (76.9% win rate) (plus/minus: -39)
More than: 4-7 (36.4% win rate) (plus/minus: -29)

Wesley Johnson (15.5 mpg) (three games with less than 5 minutes played)

Less than: 8-5 (61% win rate) (plus/minus: -3)
More than: 6-5 (54% win rate) (plus/minus: +47)

Lance Stephenson (17.9 mpg) (1 game DNP)

Less than: 6-3 (67% win rate) (plus/minus: -44)
More than: 8-7 (53% win rate) (plus/minus: +20)

Jamal Crawford (25.8 mpg)

Less than: 9-4 (69.2% win rate) (plus/minus: -15)
More than: 5-6 (45.5% win rate) (plus/minus: +22)

Josh Smith (15.2 mpg)

Less than: 9-4 (69.2% win rate) (plus/minus: -26)
More than: 5-6 (45.5% win rate) (plus/minus: -39)

Paul Pierce (16.7 mpg) (1 game DNP)

Less than: 8-4 (67% win rate) (plus/minus: -49)
More than: 6-6 (50% win rate) (plus/minus: -3)

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (9.6 mpg) (2 games DNP)

Less than: 8-5 (61.5% win rate) (plus/minus: -10)
More than: 6-4 (60% win rate) (plus/minus: -1)


Notes to take away:

Austin Rivers is far and away the worst player on our team. He not only needs a significant decrease in playing time but just needs to not play any minutes at all. Crawford is also someone who's minutes need a significant decrease, but we all knew that already.

Looking at the win rates of games where guys have played more than their average, the standouts are: Wes, Lance, Mbah a Moute, and Pierce who have 50% or above. This suggests to me that these guys need to be on the floor more. We're already seeing the minutes increase for Luc, but Wes and Lance definitely need to play more. Pierce is fine where he's at now, but will see an increase when it comes to playoffs I would assume.

Surprisingly Josh Smith loses out here as he hasn't statistically done well at all so far this season. However, I would attribute that to the fact that he's playing out of position. I actually think Josh Smith has been one of our more consistent bench players from the start of the season and hasn't been all that bad. This would also suggest to me that someone like Cole Aldrich should get some burn so we can have guys play their more natural positions.

[nickhx2]

appreciate the effort, but there is no way this is indicative proof that one guy is better than the other.

paul pierce has been the worst player on the team all season long, incapable of anything decent on either side of the ball. rivers has been crap on offense all season but saying he's the worst player (when pierce/crawford are killing the team most every night) makes me feel bad for him. you realize those guys are shooting 31% and 37% from the field respectively, right? and that's not even counting their atrocious defense.

[apet8945]

I don't think Pierce has been the worst player. Pierce was brought to the team for his playoff experience based off his playoff performances throughout his career and most recently, what he did for Washington last year. I'm not so concerned with a player of his pedigree not doing well in the season when he's not asked to do well. I'm going to wait and see what he can do when it really counts.

I know people hate Crawford and there's no denying him starting horribly this season (fingers crossed since he's starting to pick it up lately with his shooting percentage). However, when comparing Rivers and Crawford, it's night and day which one of the two is better. Rivers has been just as awful from the field as the other two guys you mentioned, and is grossly overrated on defense. I would put all three of them on the same level as defenders. Just because Rivers has the "physical" ability to be a better defender than those two, doesn't mean he is. I watch Rivers consistently get beat by the guy he's guarding and has a tendency to commit silly fouls. And besides, I like to look at overall impact on the team rather than specific stats, which is why I threw the +/- category in there. Rivers has been atrocious, which means that he isn't doing **** when he's on the floor.

[apet8945]

Also, at least Crawford has the kind of skill to be able to win games for us, specifically those games where Paul and Redick were both out. Crawford has the ability to step up when somebody needs to step up and Doc has that kind of trust in him. That's probably more detrimental to this team though since Doc uses that to justify playing him more than he should and therein lies one of our problems. Crawford should definitely be playing less minutes.

But, Crawford still has enough game where opposing teams have to respect him when he's on the floor. Can't say the same about Rivers. Rivers wouldn't even make a roster if it wasn't for Doc saving him. Crawford would have had multiple suitors even at age 35. And yet, we have Rivers playing significant minutes at the 1 spot, the most crucial position of the 5 on the floor, which he clearly cannot play properly. In fact, Crawford and Stephenson have the ability to be more of a "true" point guard than Rivers does (and that's really saying something!).

[mattd13]

have to agree on Austin. you want your pg to get assists, play defense, and make free throws. he does none of these things. I was amazed that doc put him in at the end of games to play defense. he is not a good defender by any means as you correctly pointed out. I have been disappointed at the play on defense of a number of players and some are starters.

[og15]

I think Rivers' number might be influenced by the fact that he started some games which also coincided with games where CP and Redick were out, similarly Jamal.

So that would have to be adjusted for. Basically remove the games where CP was out since missing him means bench guys are playing more and the team having a lesser record in those games doesn't mean they suck as bench players, but as starters.

Austin is an above average defender. He's not as good as Doc pimps him out to be, but he's not bad. He's an awful PG though, that's for sure.

[apet8945]

I think Rivers' number might be influenced by the fact that he started some games which also coincided with games where CP and Redick were out, similarly Jamal.

So that would have to be adjusted for. Basically remove the games where CP was out since missing him means bench guys are playing more and the team having a lesser record in those games doesn't mean they suck as bench players, but as starters.

Austin is an above average defender. He's not as good as Doc pimps him out to be, but he's not bad. He's an awful PG though, that's for sure.

I actually did want to adjust the numbers for the games that CP and Redick didn't play, but that would have been too much work haha. Plus, I probably would have done something wrong in the calculations somewhere and it wouldn't have been accurate.

And also, I would have expected Rivers' +/- numbers to be better than they are, specifically because he was able to start some games and play significant minutes with our starters out there. And yet, he has one of the worst, if not the worst +/-

[og15]

Well that's also because he's not a very good player

[Wammy Giveaway]

Let me take a stab at the bench numbers through my personal Preventions metric. For those who aren't familiar with Preventions, it's the quantification of offensive and defensive assignments that do not show up on the box score. In layman's terms, it is what the players prevented the opposing team from achieving in terms of basketball production. Let me warn you that this metric only covers the first 17 games, and the stats are in per game conditions. But hey, 17 games is a good enough sample size.

Primary Lineup: Paul-Redick-Griffin-Jordan
9.21 shots for 20.14 points, 5.62 possessions, 2.16 passes, 13.25 turnovers, 3.32 delays, 5.82 helps

(Translation: The lineup of Paul-Redick-Griffin-Jordan prevents 9.21 shots for 20.14 points, 5.62 possessions, 2.16 passes and 13.25 turnovers).

The next four stats are hypothetical. Pretend that the player was the designated starter for the entire season. The stats below would reflect how well (or poor) they would perform on defense.

Starters high
Bench high

Paul Pierce
Prevention Line: 1.44 shots for 3.38 PTS, 0.33 POSS, 0.19 AST, 0.98 TOV, 0.56 delays, 0.94 helps
Starters: 10.65 shots for 23.52 PTS, 5.95 POSS, 2.35 AST, 14.23 TOV, 3.88 delays, 6.75 helps
Bench: 8.67 shots for 19.48 PTS, 5.71 POSS, 2.60 AST, 5.24 TOV, 3.21 delays, 5.55 helps

Lance Stephenson
Prevention Line: 1.13 shots for 2.56 PTS, 0.66 POSS, 0.31 AST, 0.28 TOV, 0.25 delays, 0.69 helps
Starters: 10.34 shots for 22.71 PTS, 6.28 POSS, 2.48 AST, 13.53 TOV, 3.57 delays, 6.50 helps
Bench: 8.98 shots for 20.29 PTS, 5.39 POSS, 2.48 AST, 5.94 TOV, 3.52 delays, 5.80 helps

Wesley Johnson
Prevention Line: 1.06 shots for 2.47 PTS, 0.35 POSS, 0.47 AST, 0.26 TOV, 0.47 delays, 0.71 helps
Starters: 10.27 shots for 22.61 PTS, 5.97 POSS, 2.63 AST, 13.51 TOV, 3.79 delays, 6.52 helps
Bench: 9.04 shots for 20.38 PTS, 5.70 POSS, 2.32 AST, 5.96 TOV, 3.30 delays, 5.78 helps

Luc Richard Mbah A Moute
Prevention Line: 0.80 shots for 2.00 PTS, 0.58 POSS, 0.27 AST, 0.17 TOV, 0.27 delays, 0.13 helps
Starters: 10.01 shots for 22.14 PTS, 6.20 POSS, 2.43 AST, 13.41 TOV, 3.58 delays, 5.95 helps
Bench: 9.30 shots for 20.86 PTS, 5.47 POSS, 2.52 AST, 6.05 TOV, 3.51 delays, 6.35 helps

Opponents
Starters: 10.29 shots for 22.71 PTS, 5.05 POSS, 3.12 AST, 9.25 TOV, 2.29 delays, 4.65 helps
Bench: 9.24 shots for 21.71 PTS, 4.00 POSS, 2.18 AST, 5.58 TOV, 2.29 delays, 3.47 helps

1. Starting lineup with Pierce prevents more shots for points and turnover chances. It is also the configuration which requires help defense the most. The Clipper bench becomes adept at preventing possessions (via steals, offensive rebounds, turnovers and by drawing shot clock violations).

2. Starting lineup with Stephenson improves their ability to prevent possessions at the expense of contesting shots and minimizing their turnovers on offense.

3. Starting lineup with Johnson allows the Clippers to intercept more passes.

4. Luc Mbah A Moute adds no improvement to the Clipper starting lineup, though this lineup is 2nd at preventing possessions. This is the only lineup where the bench gets the most of the improvement, in shots for points, turnover chances and in defensive assistance.