Futility Vs. Stablity: Clippers Without Chris Paul And The Upcoming Schedule

[Wammy Giveaway]

With Chris Paul out, the Clippers are a .500 team. With Blake Griffin out, the Clippers are around .600. With both currently out, they are the old loser Clippers.

Since Paul came to Los Angeles following the vetoed trade in the lockout season, the Clippers are 3-12 in both the regular season and the playoffs with both Paul and Griffin out. Their 0.200 percentage rate is worse than their all time franchise record of 1510-2311 (.395). Given this, it is expected that the Clippers may possibly lose all their games until Paul returns according to the 6-8 week time table (between the dates of February 28 to March 15). If Paul returns at around the 6th week, the losing streak could be upwards of 17 games. If Paul returns close to the 8th week, the losing streak could reach an all-time high of 24. Let's look at that:

1. The Clippers longest losing streak, uninterrupted, is 19 games. Occurred twice: there in San Diego (1981-82 season), and here in L.A. (1988-89 season).
2. Chris Paul's maximum losing streak is 8 games in a row. Achieved in his rookie year.
3. Blake Griffin's maximum losing streak is 9 games in a row. Achieved in his rookie year.
4. The Clippers longest winning streak, uninterrupted, is 17 games. Happened in Vinny's final year, the December to remember, the perfect 16-0.

A ray of light may be coming to shine down upon what could be the darkest cloud in Clipper history since the Donald Sterling scandal of 2014. Blake Griffin is due to return sooner than you think. The time table for Griffin's body removal injury was 4-6 weeks, commencing on December 20. Four weeks is from December 20 to January 17... which happened to be yesterday. If Griffin returns tonight to help his team beat the Timberwolves to increase their winning streak, a losing streak may be mute. But, should Griffin remain sidelined until the maximum return date, January 31, the losses will mount. Worse comes to worst if Griffin doesn't return until Paul does...

Griffin returns tonight: No losses
Griffin returns Jan. 31: up to 5 losses (29-19)
Griffin returns when Paul returns Feb. 28: up to 17 losses (29-31)
Griffin returns when Paul returns Mar. 15: up to 24 losses (29-38)

Let me make a disclaimer: automatic losses are 100% unlikely, so is their chance at missing the playoffs completely. Thanks to the 8th seed debacle that is a 12 game gap between them and Denver, the Clippers are locked into the playoff no less than a 7th seed. While a 24-game losing streak is completely farfetched and out of the question, it is not impossible to think the Clippers will be struggling mightily without at least one of their superstars healthy, given their aforementioned 3-12 record.

Even if the Clippers were to somehow fall out of the playoff race completely, I'm here to tell you that there is another silver lining to consider. Look at the schedule:

Code: Select all

Team | Seed | Prob | Notes
-----+------+------+-----------------------
MIN  | 13th |   72 | Min. return (Griffin)
DEN  |  8th |   50 |
ATL  |  4th |   50 |
PHI  | 13th |   72 |
GSW  |  1st |    0 |
PHX  | 15th |  100 | Max. return (Griffin)
GSW  |  1st |    0 |
BOS  |  3rd |    0 |
TOR  |  2nd |    0 |
NYK  | 11th |  100 |
CHA  |  9th |  100 |
UTA  |  5th |   50 |
ATL  |  4th |   50 |
GSW  |  1st |    0 |
SAS  |  2nd |    0 |
CHA  |  9th |  100 |
HOU  |  3rd |    0 | Min. return (Paul)
MIL  |  7th |   50 |
CHI  |  8th |   50 |
BOS  |  3rd |    0 |
MIN  | 13th |   72 |
MEM  |  6th |   50 |
PHI  | 13th |   72 |
UTA  |  5th |   50 |


Now look at their history since Paul came to the club:

2012 Lockout: 1-2 Elite East, 5-5 Elite West, 3-3 Playoff East, 9-4 Playoff West, 7-2 Lottery East, 15-10 Lottery West
2012-13: 4-2 Elite East, 3-7 Elite West, 7-3 Playoff East, 10-5 Playoff West, 10-4 Lottery East, 22-5 Lottery West
2013-14: 2-4 Elite East, 3-4 Elite West, 7-3 Playoff East, 11-7 Playoff West, 12-2 Lottery East, 22-5 Lottery West
2014-15: 1-5 Elite East, 3-5 Elite West, 5-5 Playoff East, 11-7 Playoff West, 13-1 Lottery East, 23-3 Lottery West
2015-16: 2-4 Elite East, 2-9 Elite West, 7-3 Playoff East, 10-5 Playoff West, 13-1 Lottery East, 19-7 Lottery West

Clippers just flat out suck against elite teams (top 3 seeds in each conference), eight games of which could be pegged as automatic losses. They can hold their ground against playoff teams (4th through 8th seeded teams), and there are eight of them here; make those games 50-50. Their greatest chance at stability is feasting on those lottery teams, eight of whom appear on this upcoming gauntlet of a schedule.

It should be worth mentioning that the Clippers were 19-7 against the western lottery teams as opposed to the east (13-1), meaning they could struggle with the likes of Minnesota and Phoenix. The beauty here is that they're 13th and 15th respectively. And the Clippers are 21-8 against 13th seeded teams, and a hilariously winning 25-3 against 15th seeded teams, both since the arrival of Chris Paul.

The end is near. But it won't be the end of the Clippers; it will just be the end of the regular season.

[GuyverX]

We know the Clippers could potentially fall all the way down to the 7th seed. Unless Griffin is just not coming back this season at all, there is very little chance they would fall out of the playoff picture. But basketball is not about predictions. You don't know until you play the games. Griffin is projected to be back by all-star break and the coaching staff has said he feels great during running exercises. They will not risk pushing him to come back early because it's simply not worth it in the long run..so speculating, "if Griffin comes back tonight, etc" is not realistic at all. Neither is a 24-game losing streak. AFAIK, he hasn't even been cleared for real practice. Longest winning streaks and losing streaks are also irrelevant because those were different teams under different circumstances. I just don't see the point of this speculation, tbh.

They had a projected timeline and we are still a few weeks out. We'll just have to see how Griffin is doing by then. It's not like the team couldn't win a game without CP3 and Griffin. They have before. It's just usually very difficult. They have a small cushion but realistically, retaining the 4-5 seed would prove to be extremely difficult. It all depends on Griffin's progress and also how well the team responds to playing without their 2 best players. It's not farfetched to think some guys could step up to win against the lesser teams out there.