Clippers Road to the Playoffs

Post #1 » by **og15** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:13 pm

The Clippers have had some struggles, but if we cut down recently to about 5 games they aren't doing too bad. Further, and not so hot. I wanted to examine some statistics and some patterns and see if there's anything interesting going on. Let's look at the team since Chris Paul returned, it has been 9 games, they are 5-4 with losses to San Antonio, Houston, Milwaukee and Minnesota.

Team Advanced Stats
Season:
109.0 Ortg | 105.7 Drtg | 49.8 REB% | 13.4 TOV% | 53.0 eFG% | 56.7 TS% | 98.5 Pace

League Leaders:
112.8 Ortg (GSW) | 100.6 Drtg (SAS) | 53.6% REB (DEN) | 12.1 TOV% (CHA) | 56.0 eFG% (GSW) | 59.5 TS% (GSW)

Last 9 games:
108.9 Ortg | 108.8 Drtg | 48.5 REB% | 14.0 TOV% | 53.5 eFG% | 57.0 TS% | 96.7 Pace

Observations:

Playing a little slower. Doing everything offensively pretty much the same as the rest of the season, but defense has declined.

Team Lineups:

Starters Season: Paul / Redick / Mbah a Moute / Griffin / Jordan:
112.2 Ortg | 98.6 Drtg | +13.6 NetRtg | 65.7 AST% | 53.2 REB% | 55.8 eFG% | 59.2 TS% | 97.7 Pace

Starters Last 9 games:
114.2 Ortg | 108.3 Drtg | +5.9 NetRtg | 68.1 AST% | 50.0 REB% | 58.7 eFG% | 60.9 TS% | 93.7 Pace

Observations:

Starters have obviously dropped off drastically on defense. The offense has been good, but they have also slowed down the pace a decent amount in the last 9 games. Sample is small, but it is interesting. They still do a good job in terms of AST% and they are still at the least breaking even when it comes to rebounding recently.

Bench 1 Season: Felton / Rivers / Crawford / Johnson / Speights (34 games / 236 mins)
97.3 Ortg | 98.2 Drtg | -0.9 NetRtg | 47.3 AST% | 44.2 REB% | 46.5 eFG% | 51.2 TS% | 97.5 Pace

Bench 1 Last 9 games (6 games / 27 mins):
78.6 Ortg | 101.7 Drtg | -23.1 NetRtg | 43.8 AST% | 35.3 REB% | 41.9 eFG% | 46.8 TS% | 97.2 Pace

Bench 2 Season: Felton / Rivers / Crawford / Bass / Speights (24 games / 124 mins):
106.3 Ortg | 117.0 Drtg | -10.7 NetRtg | 52.1 AST% | 47.8 REB% | 52.4 eFG% | 57.0 TS% | 95.0 Pace

Bench 2 Last 9 games (4 games / 17 mins):
99.8 Ortg | 121.1 Drtg | -21,5 NetRtg | 38.5 AST% | 47.2 REB% | 40.3 eFG% | 43.5 TS% | 96.4 Pace

Bench 3 Season: Felton / Rivers / Crawford / Griffin / Speights (28 games / 84 mins)
112.8 Ortg | 102.8 Drtg | +10.0 NetRtg | 54.7 AST% | 45.1 REB% | 56.7 eFG% | 60.2 TS% | 100.9 Pace

Bench 3 Last 9 games (8 games / 28 mins):
109.9 Ortg | 117.1 Drtg | -7.2 NetRtg | 50.0 AST% | 46.9 REB% | 54.5 eFG% | 56.8 TS% | 102.2 Pace

Bench 4 Season: Rivers / Crawford / Johnson / Bass / Speights (8 games / 44 mins):
116.7 Ortg | 91.0 Drtg | +25.6 NetRtg | 52.6 AST% | 54.4 REB% | 57.1 eFG% | 61.6 TS% | 101.5 Pace

Bench 5 Season: Felton / Crawford / Johnson / Bass / Speights (7 games / 24 mins)
118.3 Ortg | 95.8 Drtg | +22.6 NetRtg | 70.0 AST% | 51.2 REB% | 55.8 eFG% | 57.1 TS% | 98.8 Pace

Observations:

Standings:
Clippers are 1 game behind Utah. The teams play each other tomorrow, and if the Clippers win, they tie, if the Jazz win, they move a little further ahead. Here are their remaining games after playing each other:

Clippers Remaining Schedule:

Jazz Remaining Schedule:

Possible Opponents:
After Utah who the Clippers can hopefully eclipse in the standings and have HCA advantage against, which would certainly help a lot in getting past them, the Clippers might be hoping for SA to keep doing well. SA is currently 0.5 games behind GS with 17 games left, while GS has 16 games left. Both teams have injury issues that will affect them going forward.

Clippers have been annihilated by the Warriors, and the Warriors will likely get Durant back and would be a team the Clippers would want to avoid as long as possible. The Clippers would be in no way the favorites or anything against the Spurs, but the Clippers know how to play the Spurs and have some advantages in that matchup.

Post #2 » by **QRich3** » Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:20 am

Nice post. Yeah the small ball bench unit needs to die, I believed in it just like I believed Josh Smith at C had potential, but the idea hasn't worked at all in the nearly half a decade Doc's been here. Maybe it's time to throw it out you know, specially when Bass is sneakily one of the most productive guys off that bench.

The way they're playing right now, it really doesn't matter if the Spurs or Warriors get 1st seed, I don't see them putting up a fight against either one. Maybe they wake up when the postseason comes, other veteran teams have done that in the past, but right now it doesn't seem likely. We'll be lucky to squeak by the Jazz in 7 games, and that's match up we had won every time until a few days ago.

Post #3 » by **og15** » Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:27 pm

Clippers are really counting on Utah's schedule and their opponents playing well to propel them into the 4th seed and HCA.

They really need to pick it up to end the season unless it won't be pretty.

Post #4 » by **og15** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 3:23 am

Schedule has been working. Utah lost three in a row. They will likely beat NY for their next game and then they will go to LA to play the Clippers at 44-28.

Clippers with a win tonight and hopefully a win vs Dallas will go into that game 44-29. A win will given them the season series as well as a 0.5 game lead. Clippers will need the season series in the case of a tie because Utah has the division dinner tie breaker.

Clippers will then have 8 remaining games with 6 at home while Utah will have 9 remaining games with 5 at home.

Post #5 » by **QRich3** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:16 pm

Well, the schedule in March has been awful for us, and looking back it might've been a big factor in all the losses against the Bucks, Wolves, Nuggets and the general bad play all month. Hopefully with a better schedule, and time to rest, they can start getting in playoff shape sooner rather than later. I still don't see a way to get back to November's defense, but I'm gonna be patient and wait.

The Jazz are still a great match up for us, and I'm not a fan of jockeying for position to avoid the Warriors. Just play through whoever's in front of you, and if you lose against a better team, it doesn't really matter if it's the 2nd round or the WCF. Bragging rights against WCF hot takes mean very little to me tbh.

Post #6 » by **og15** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:30 pm

What? You don't want the WCF participant bragging rights? You don't want to advance the discussion to how we are WCF chokers instead? How disappointing.

nickhx2 · Post #7 » by **nickhx2** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:02 pm

wcf participation trophies lmao

Post #8 » by **og15** » Sun Mar 26, 2017 9:12 pm

Clippers 44-31 Remaining Schedule:
WAS | @PHO | LAL | DAL | @SAS | HOU | SAC
Need 6-1 for 50 wins

Jazz 44-29 Remaining Schedule:
NOP | @SAC | WAS | @SAS | POR | MIN | @POR | @GSW | SAS
Need 6-3 for 50 wins

Clippers have the tie breaker.

Post #9 » by **og15** » Sun Apr 2, 2017 8:36 pm

Clippers 47-31 Remaining Schedule:
DAL | @SAS | HOU | SAC
Need 3-1 for 50 wins

Jazz 47-30 Remaining Schedule:
POR | MIN | @POR | @GSW | SAS
Need 3-2 for 50 wins

Clippers have the tie breaker. So now the Clippers have to be aiming to go 4-0, but they play @SAS and they play Houston. Utah is a lot more comfortable. 5-0 totally clears them. 4-1 most likely clears them as I think the Clippers will lose at least one game. 3-2 might be dangerous for them, but Clippers still need to finish 3-1 to get the tie. Utah who did not have the advantage before now has the advantage.

Let's look at the stats since the time of the last report:

Team Advanced Stats
Season:
109.9 Ortg | 106.2 Drtg | 49.8 REB% | 13.3 TOV% | 53.6 eFG% | 57.3 TS% | 98.4 Pace

League Leaders:
112.9 Ortg (GSW) | 100.8 Drtg (SAS) | 53.4% REB (DEN) | 11.6 TOV% (CHA) | 56.2 eFG% (GSW) | 59.6 TS% (GSW)

Last 21 games:
112.2 Ortg | 108.7 Drtg | 49.3 REB% | 13.4 TOV% | 55.3 eFG% | 59.1 TS% | 97.1 Pace

Of course Paul and Griffin missing games affected the season numbers, so it is understandable that with them healthy lately, the team has been playing at the level of the league's best offense (GS) in ORTG, eFG% and TS%, they are right with them in all of those.
Team Lineups:

Starters Season: Paul / Redick / Mbah a Moute / Griffin / Jordan:
114.3 Ortg | 100.2 Drtg | +14.0 NetRtg | 65.1 AST% | 52.4 REB% | 56.4 eFG% | 59.9 TS% | 97.3 Pace

Starters Last 21 games:
118.2 Ortg | 107.1 Drtg | +11.1 NetRtg | 65.4 AST% | 49.8 REB% | 58.7 eFG% | 61.7 TS% | 94.9 Pace

So starters are still playing about 7 pts/100 possessions worse on defense than their season average over the last 21 games, though they are playing 4 pts/100 possessions better on offense. So the defensive drop off is still alive. Offensively though, they have actually been pretty crazy over the last 21 games, the offense is pretty ridiculous. A lot of easy matchups has helped, but 118 Ortg by the starters over 21 games is still pretty impressive.
Bench 1 Last 21 games: Felton / Rivers / Crawford / Pierce / Speights (7 games / 64 mins)
109.2 Ortg | 93.3 Drtg | +15.9 NetRtg | 35.2 AST% | 53.3 REB% | 57.0 eFG% | 60.5 TS% | 98.4 Pace

Bench 2 Last 21 games: Felton / Rivers / Crawford / Griffin / Speights (16 games / 44 mins):
90.7 Ortg | 116.1 Drtg | -25.4 NetRtg | 57.6 AST% | 39.7 REB% | 47.5 eFG% | 49.6 TS% | 101.3 Pace

Bench 3 Last 21 games: Felton / Rivers / Crawford / Johnson / Speights (8 games / 43 mins):
87.2 Ortg | 103.7 Drtg | -16.6 NetRtg | 32.1 AST% | 37.5 REB% | 44.3 eFG% | 48.7 TS% | 95.1 Pace

EDIT:
Clippers 48-31 Remaining Schedule:
@SAS | HOU | SAC
Need 2-1 for 50 wins

Jazz 49-30 Remaining Schedule:
@POR | @GSW | SAS
Need 1-2 for 50 wins

Roscoe Sheed · Post #10 » by **Roscoe Sheed** » Sat Apr 15, 2017 12:02 am

One unsung player I'm concerned about on the jazz is Mack. He can score in bunches and if Crawford is guarding him he won't face much opposition

Post #11 » by **mkwest** » Sat Apr 15, 2017 6:22 am

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