The Guard Problem

[esqtvd]

As you can see from this chart, the starting tandem of Bradley and Beverly is still in the black--a net +3.5--facing what we assume are the opposition's strongest pair of guards.




There's no getting around the fact that we need their minutes, at least 40 or 50 combined [currently 52], but the problem is that breaking them up and pairing them with anybody else pretty much leads to a negative net. Shai's mostly playing off the ball, making his numbers with Lou and Milos and sometimes Gallo running the point. Lou and Beverly--both at only 6-foot--are an unappetizing pair on D. Lou and Milos together have created some mindbending offense on the court together, but you can't start them or ever imagine them defending some of the killer duos like Steph-Klay or Lillard-McCollum.

So far the strategy of trying to play the opps' starters even [B&B =194 minutes, plus+3.5] and swamping them with our bench [Lou-Shai = 172 minutes, plus+15.7]--with a splash of Milos when matchups permit--is not only the best strategy, it's the only possible one.

[Popovich]

Nice stats dig. You are right from what I can see , higher substitution ratio is needed but than it's hard to do so as I noticed that in NBA you have to have standard rotations , it's like as if the number of substitutions allowed is limited.

[Galloisdaman]

I'm not sure there is a great answer right now other than Avery/Bev playing better or SGA really stepping up his game fast.
Going to be hard to win a lot of games if the starting guards get outscored by 20-30 in a some of the games.
Still with that said I would rather Avery/Bev not shoot a lot rather than shoot way too much and miss.

[esqtvd]

I'm not sure there is a great answer right now other than Avery/Bev playing better or SGA really stepping up his game fast.
Going to be hard to win a lot of games if the starting guards get outscored by 20-30 in a some of the games.
Still with that said I would rather Avery/Bev not shoot a lot rather than shoot way too much and miss.

Gortat has been no help, indeed a net negative in not presenting a threat in the paint that stretches the floor from the inside out.

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Unfortunately, there are some matchups where Bobi will be even more of a negative than Gortat.


What the chart shows is that the guard substitution pattern has been maximized while still experimenting with breaking up B & B [to little success] playing with sixth man Lou. Hard to make the case for breaking them up when the stats indicate otherwise: B & B have held their own against the league's best; Lou & Shai have feasted on second units.

[Clemenza]

The vet guards still look like sh*t overall but lets use plus/negative to re-enforce the starting backcourt narrative that I personally believe in even though it doesn't pass the eye test. Do ya'll want to see progress and the team winning or not? I don't give a sh*t who starts or who comes off the bench. Just play the best players and lets go!!

[apet8945]

I don't really understand the hate Bradley has been getting. Beverley's struggles shouldn't bleed over and affect people's judgment on Bradley. They are the pair that starts in the back court yes, but they should be looked at individually.

Bradley's offense got off to a slow start but has picked up nicely and his defense has been rock solid since the start. He sets the tone defensively early and should definitely be a starter. And if he's having a nice night offensively, I don't mind seeing him in late game, especially if there is a player on the other team that needs to get locked down.

Beverley has been awful across the board though. You hate to see it. If he doesn't start improving, he won't just lose his starting spot, he'll lose his minutes too. We still got Teo who can easily see a jump in minutes and will probably produce more than Beverley can, and not to mention Ty and Jerome who have a lot of potential.

Shai will eventually start, and it will be in place of Beverley. And it might even happen sooner than later. I was surprised to have seen the decision to start Boban over Gortat, even though we all knew it was the right move. So maybe Doc won't have the same patience with Beverley either? Maybe the only thing allowing Bev to stay in the starting lineup so far is the fact that Shai is a rookie. Doc still has his issues with trusting them. We could always start Teo too ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Only time will tell I guess.

[esqtvd]

I don't really understand the hate Bradley has been getting. Beverley's struggles shouldn't bleed over and affect people's judgment on Bradley. They are the pair that starts in the back court yes, but they should be looked at individually.

Bradley's offense got off to a slow start but has picked up nicely and his defense has been rock solid since the start. He sets the tone defensively early and should definitely be a starter. And if he's having a nice night offensively, I don't mind seeing him in late game, especially if there is a player on the other team that needs to get locked down.

Beverley has been awful across the board though. You hate to see it. If he doesn't start improving, he won't just lose his starting spot, he'll lose his minutes too. We still got Teo who can easily see a jump in minutes and will probably produce more than Beverley can, and not to mention Ty and Jerome who have a lot of potential.

Shai will eventually start, and it will be in place of Beverley. And it might even happen sooner than later. I was surprised to have seen the decision to start Boban over Gortat, even though we all knew it was the right move. So maybe Doc won't have the same patience with Beverley either? Maybe the only thing allowing Bev to stay in the starting lineup so far is the fact that Shai is a rookie. Doc still has his issues with trusting them. We could always start Teo too ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Only time will tell I guess.

Exc post. Pat Bev is the weak link. Problem is, moving Shai in beside Avery leaves 2 six-foot-nothins together on the second unit, Pat and Lou, and Shai and Avery have been the worst combination that has seen significant minutes, which was rather the point here.




All Doc can do is keep investing a little PT in those combinations hoping they improve, and/or hope moving Gortat out of the starting unit has some sort of domino effect.

[apet8945]

All Doc can do is keep investing a little PT in those combinations hoping they improve, and/or hope moving Gortat out of the starting unit has some sort of domino effect.

I'm holding my breath in regards to either Boban/Harrell starting being able to stabilize the first unit, mostly because neither Bev nor Bradley are able to work the pick and roll effectively. So unless one of those two learns how to do it, I'm hopeful but doubtful. Part of the reason why Gortat hasn't been working out is because of this. But unfortunately, Gortat doesn't provide much else that Harrell or Boban can't do so he has to hit the pine.

Exc post. Pat Bev is the weak link. Problem is, moving Shai in beside Avery leaves 2 six-foot-nothins together on the second unit, Pat and Lou, and Shai and Avery have been the worst combination that has seen significant minutes, which was rather the point here.

Shai and Avery will do much better than that small sample size would suggest, I'm sure. I wouldn't be too concerned with that.

But I do share your concern with having two small guys on the second unit. But Doc has been putting three guard lineups out there so I don't think that's Doc's main concern at all. Now once Luc is feeling better, that'll change obviously (hopefully).

Now I would think we'd try to give Beverley a chance on the second unit regardless of the size concern. I don't think it's illogical to think that Beverley would play better with Williams overall. But if Beverley keeps up his low level of play even on the second unit and the size is a huge concern, then Beverley hits the pine too for someone with some size or we put in Teo and try to work around his own shortcomings.

Again, I'm really hoping it doesn't come to that. Can't be good for Beverley's psyche to go from starting to not playing at all. But then again, the same goes for Gortat and we all know it needs to happen. Maybe it lights a fire under them both. Or maybe it just shows their true value in this league.