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Game 22: Los Angeles Clippers (15-6) @ Dallas Mavericks (10-10) - 4:00 PM PT

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Re: Game 22: Los Angeles Clippers (15-6) @ Dallas Mavericks (10-10) - 4:00 PM PT 

Post#41 » by Galloisdaman » Mon Dec 3, 2018 1:05 pm

It is important to note that the adjusted +/- rating is not a “holy grail” statistic that perfectly captures each player’s overall value...the estimates suffer from the issue of skewed sampling—the fact that most players usually find themselves on the court in the company of certain teammates and not others. As a result, it can be difficult to accurately tease out the individual effects of two players who almost always appear on the court together.
My eyes glaze over when reading alternative stat (not advanced stat) narratives that go many paragraphs long. If you can not make your point in 2 paragraphs it may not be a great point. :D
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Re: Game 22: Los Angeles Clippers (15-6) @ Dallas Mavericks (10-10) - 4:00 PM PT 

Post#42 » by esqtvd » Mon Dec 3, 2018 8:05 pm

Galloisdaman wrote:
esqtvd wrote:
Galloisdaman wrote:If the Clippers backups played the Mavs starters they would have likely been way worse than minus 10. If the Clippers starters played the Mavs backups they would have likely been big pluses. Plus/minus is a very flawed stat when trying to evaluate 1,2, or 3 players. There are 10 on the court in all sorts of combinations through out the game. Correlation does not equal causation.

Game was most likely determined on the offensive boards. DJ had around 23 rebounds.

They lost a tough road game. Can't win them all. They are a 500 team on the road.



"Correlation does not equal causation" doesn't mean the data are meaningless. What is your explanation for our 3 best players on the court together having a minus-10 collectively AND separately?

To me it's strong evidence that they're being outplayed, by the Dallas starters, bench, or whoever. As it turns out, the Dallas starters were around plus+8 and their bench was around minus-4. Final score, 114-110.

For us, Lou, Mike Scott and Pat Bev were around plus+8 collectively and individually. Harrell played with both units and finished...wait for it...plus+1, just where you'd expect, averaging out the two units.

Fact is, we need our best 3 guys to play so well they stay at least somewhat around zero in plus/minus even if saddled with Gortat, who's nobody's idea of a legit NBA starter at this point. You can't play a losing team like Dallas and have your starters lose their part of the battle.


Were Lou, Mike Scott, and Pat Bev playing against the same level of competition? Gallo and Lous stat lines were very similar. Do you think Lou just played great defense so his plus/minus was better? We do need those 3 guys to play well but plus minus tells the story of 10 guys on the floor not individuals.

Gallo (21 points on 16fga) and 6 rebounds and was a minus 13
Trezz (23 points on 15fga) and 10 reb and was a plus 1.

Mike Scott (3pts on 6fga) was a plus 8
Bev (3 points on 4fga) was a plus 7.

So did Mike Scott and Pat Bev play better than Gallo and Trezz because they had a better plus/minus?
Mike Scott had the highest plus minus on the team when he made 1 shot all game. So was he the best player since he had the best plus minus?
We can not entirely judge individuals based on what happens with 9 other guys on the court.

A person could be a great worker at their job but stuck with 4 guys that do nothing. His unit will not be productive over all. Does that mean he is personally not doing a good job?



Stat lines leave out defense.

But the point is we expect our starters to be better than the second unit, and yes, they are facing a higher level of competition. But our starters as a group got outplayed by Dallas's starters, and that's why we lost.

[What I'm NOT saying is that because Gallo was minus-13 and Tobias was minus-11 that Gallo had the worse game. It was a team effort. :-P We got outhustled.]
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Re: Game 22: Los Angeles Clippers (15-6) @ Dallas Mavericks (10-10) - 4:00 PM PT 

Post#43 » by Galloisdaman » Mon Dec 3, 2018 8:43 pm

esqtvd wrote:
Galloisdaman wrote:
esqtvd wrote:

"Correlation does not equal causation" doesn't mean the data are meaningless. What is your explanation for our 3 best players on the court together having a minus-10 collectively AND separately?

To me it's strong evidence that they're being outplayed, by the Dallas starters, bench, or whoever. As it turns out, the Dallas starters were around plus+8 and their bench was around minus-4. Final score, 114-110.

For us, Lou, Mike Scott and Pat Bev were around plus+8 collectively and individually. Harrell played with both units and finished...wait for it...plus+1, just where you'd expect, averaging out the two units.

Fact is, we need our best 3 guys to play so well they stay at least somewhat around zero in plus/minus even if saddled with Gortat, who's nobody's idea of a legit NBA starter at this point. You can't play a losing team like Dallas and have your starters lose their part of the battle.


Were Lou, Mike Scott, and Pat Bev playing against the same level of competition? Gallo and Lous stat lines were very similar. Do you think Lou just played great defense so his plus/minus was better? We do need those 3 guys to play well but plus minus tells the story of 10 guys on the floor not individuals.

Gallo (21 points on 16fga) and 6 rebounds and was a minus 13
Trezz (23 points on 15fga) and 10 reb and was a plus 1.

Mike Scott (3pts on 6fga) was a plus 8
Bev (3 points on 4fga) was a plus 7.

So did Mike Scott and Pat Bev play better than Gallo and Trezz because they had a better plus/minus?
Mike Scott had the highest plus minus on the team when he made 1 shot all game. So was he the best player since he had the best plus minus?
We can not entirely judge individuals based on what happens with 9 other guys on the court.

A person could be a great worker at their job but stuck with 4 guys that do nothing. His unit will not be productive over all. Does that mean he is personally not doing a good job?



Stat lines leave out defense.

But the point is we expect our starters to be better than the second unit, and yes, they are facing a higher level of competition. But our starters as a group got outplayed by Dallas's starters, and that's why we lost.

[What I'm NOT saying is that because Gallo was minus-13 and Tobias was minus-11 that Gallo had the worse game. It was a team effort. :-P We got outhustled.]


Yes Dallas wanted it more. They played harder and that is reflected in the rebound totals.

I'm not saying plus minus is meaningless. I just think we have to take it with a large grain of salt. Some days it is going to give an accurate picture. Some days its going to be very misleading. There are season totals for individuals that are very misleading as well.

It reminds me of the line repeated by Mark Twain
There are 3 kinds of lies. Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
My eyes glaze over when reading alternative stat (not advanced stat) narratives that go many paragraphs long. If you can not make your point in 2 paragraphs it may not be a great point. :D
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Re: Game 22: Los Angeles Clippers (15-6) @ Dallas Mavericks (10-10) - 4:00 PM PT 

Post#44 » by esqtvd » Mon Dec 3, 2018 8:59 pm

Galloisdaman wrote:
esqtvd wrote:
Galloisdaman wrote:
Were Lou, Mike Scott, and Pat Bev playing against the same level of competition? Gallo and Lous stat lines were very similar. Do you think Lou just played great defense so his plus/minus was better? We do need those 3 guys to play well but plus minus tells the story of 10 guys on the floor not individuals.

Gallo (21 points on 16fga) and 6 rebounds and was a minus 13
Trezz (23 points on 15fga) and 10 reb and was a plus 1.

Mike Scott (3pts on 6fga) was a plus 8
Bev (3 points on 4fga) was a plus 7.

So did Mike Scott and Pat Bev play better than Gallo and Trezz because they had a better plus/minus?
Mike Scott had the highest plus minus on the team when he made 1 shot all game. So was he the best player since he had the best plus minus?
We can not entirely judge individuals based on what happens with 9 other guys on the court.

A person could be a great worker at their job but stuck with 4 guys that do nothing. His unit will not be productive over all. Does that mean he is personally not doing a good job?



Stat lines leave out defense.

But the point is we expect our starters to be better than the second unit, and yes, they are facing a higher level of competition. But our starters as a group got outplayed by Dallas's starters, and that's why we lost.

[What I'm NOT saying is that because Gallo was minus-13 and Tobias was minus-11 that Gallo had the worse game. It was a team effort. :-P We got outhustled.]


Yes Dallas wanted it more. They played harder and that is reflected in the rebound totals.

I'm not saying plus minus is meaningless. I just think we have to take it with a large grain of salt. Some days it is going to give an accurate picture. Some days its going to be very misleading. There are season totals for individuals that are very misleading as well.

It reminds me of the line repeated by Mark Twain
There are 3 kinds of lies. Lies, damned lies, and statistics.



Well, I always put plus/minus in the team context. If you're on a lousy second unit, you're going to be in the minus no matter how well you play. But if you're in the minus when everyone else around you is in the plus, that's a red flag.

Yesterday, the Mavs' starters outplayed ours and we agree it was mostly a hustle thing. But Tobias having a crap game from the field didn't help either.
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Re: Game 22: Los Angeles Clippers (15-6) @ Dallas Mavericks (10-10) - 4:00 PM PT 

Post#45 » by Galloisdaman » Mon Dec 3, 2018 9:30 pm

esqtvd wrote:
Galloisdaman wrote:
esqtvd wrote:

Stat lines leave out defense.

But the point is we expect our starters to be better than the second unit, and yes, they are facing a higher level of competition. But our starters as a group got outplayed by Dallas's starters, and that's why we lost.

[What I'm NOT saying is that because Gallo was minus-13 and Tobias was minus-11 that Gallo had the worse game. It was a team effort. :-P We got outhustled.]


Yes Dallas wanted it more. They played harder and that is reflected in the rebound totals.

I'm not saying plus minus is meaningless. I just think we have to take it with a large grain of salt. Some days it is going to give an accurate picture. Some days its going to be very misleading. There are season totals for individuals that are very misleading as well.

It reminds me of the line repeated by Mark Twain
There are 3 kinds of lies. Lies, damned lies, and statistics.



Well, I always put plus/minus in the team context. If you're on a lousy second unit, you're going to be in the minus no matter how well you play. But if you're in the minus when everyone else around you is in the plus, that's a red flag.

Yesterday, the Mavs' starters outplayed ours and we agree it was mostly a hustle thing. But Tobias having a crap game from the field didn't help either.


The big thing that stood out to me is they lost the game by 4 points while giving up 17 offensive rebounds.
The Mavs starters had 14 offensive rebounds. The Clippers starters had 2. That was probably the deciding factor in the game.

Only other that stood out (only because it was a 4 point loss) were the missed free throws by Trezz who played very well otherwise.
My eyes glaze over when reading alternative stat (not advanced stat) narratives that go many paragraphs long. If you can not make your point in 2 paragraphs it may not be a great point. :D
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Re: Game 22: Los Angeles Clippers (15-6) @ Dallas Mavericks (10-10) - 4:00 PM PT 

Post#46 » by esqtvd » Mon Dec 3, 2018 10:18 pm

Galloisdaman wrote:
esqtvd wrote:
Galloisdaman wrote:
Yes Dallas wanted it more. They played harder and that is reflected in the rebound totals.

I'm not saying plus minus is meaningless. I just think we have to take it with a large grain of salt. Some days it is going to give an accurate picture. Some days its going to be very misleading. There are season totals for individuals that are very misleading as well.

It reminds me of the line repeated by Mark Twain
There are 3 kinds of lies. Lies, damned lies, and statistics.



Well, I always put plus/minus in the team context. If you're on a lousy second unit, you're going to be in the minus no matter how well you play. But if you're in the minus when everyone else around you is in the plus, that's a red flag.

Yesterday, the Mavs' starters outplayed ours and we agree it was mostly a hustle thing. But Tobias having a crap game from the field didn't help either.


The big thing that stood out to me is they lost the game by 4 points while giving up 17 offensive rebounds.
The Mavs starters had 14 offensive rebounds. The Clippers starters had 2. That was probably the deciding factor in the game.

Only other that stood out (only because it was a 4 point loss) were the missed free throws by Trezz who played very well otherwise.


Trezz went 1-6 from the line. Who said we couldn't replace DJ? LOL

As for the offensive rebs, yes, Dallas got 17 extra chances but strangely enough, we each got 95 shots, and Dallas only got 4 more FTAs. Yes, DJ got 6 off rebs but Harrison Barnes also got 5 of 'em. Again, that goes to our starting forwards, indeed, he was Tobias's man. And acc to the LA Times

    After shooting a season-low 27.7%, Tobias Harris left the locker room quicker than he has all season.


So that's the name of that tune.
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Beverley Fined 

Post#47 » by Ranma » Tue Dec 4, 2018 8:45 pm

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Re: Game 22: Los Angeles Clippers (15-6) @ Dallas Mavericks (10-10) - 4:00 PM PT 

Post#48 » by esqtvd » Wed Dec 5, 2018 12:20 am

Dude talked trash about Beverley's mama. Keeping it real just cost Pat 25 large. Idiot.
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Re: Game 22: Los Angeles Clippers (15-6) @ Dallas Mavericks (10-10) - 4:00 PM PT 

Post#49 » by Galloisdaman » Wed Dec 5, 2018 12:43 am

Didn't look like much more than a pass. He should not have done it but some people (not here) speak like he gunned it at the guys head. :)
My eyes glaze over when reading alternative stat (not advanced stat) narratives that go many paragraphs long. If you can not make your point in 2 paragraphs it may not be a great point. :D
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Knob Rumored to Be Banned from American Airlines Arena 

Post#50 » by Ranma » Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:37 pm

If the rumored ban is legitimate, I hope it also extends to Staples Center when the Clippers play as well as Ballmer's new stadium project.

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