The Danger Of Reunions: The DeAndre Jordan Sweepstakes

[og15]

DJ: VERY similar production to Zubac's with only a slight edge to Zu.

ttps://www.basketball-reference.com/players/z/zubaciv01.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jordade01.html


No reason to sign DJ if he is bought out but once again it brings Zu's trade value @ $7M into serious question when trad 5s like Drummond and DJ will command only the minimum on the open market.

What would Drummond command if he wasn't bought out from a large contract and making money from a previous team? What would DJ command if he was 24 years old vs 33 years old?

Not really comparing like vs like here, lol

For the sake of argument we have given Zu the nod over the other two. The only question being raised here is whether other teams would consider him $5M/yr better.

I think you would need to look at sort of similar players to Zu at a more similar age who aren't being signed post-buy out. So interior primarily rebound, finish and defense bigs who aren't the best at perimeter defense and don't shoot outside much or at all.

Steven Adams (28 years old): November 23, 2020 - 2 years / $35M extension ($17.5M/year)
Jusuf Nurkic (27 years old): signed for $12M/year
Mason Plumlee (31 years old): $8.3M/year
Derrick Favors (30 years old): $9.7M/year
Jakob Poetl (25 years old): $8.7M/year

You can find more, but I'm not going through the whole league. Zubac at 24 years old is the youngest of everyone I've listed here, the range we have is from about $8 million to at the top end with Adams, $17.5 million. So if the question is "other teams would consider him $5 million/year better", well, other teams would consider him to be worth about $8 million. The direct comparison to those guys who are either old or bought out is irrelevant because they aren't signing for market value, they generally end up signing for a specific role or situation because they are already getting paid. So most teams don't end up being in the running for those guys anyways.

So if we're asking the honest question of what his market value would be, around $8 million seems to be it.

[esqtvd]

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[esqtvd]

What would Drummond command if he wasn't bought out from a large contract and making money from a previous team? What would DJ command if he was 24 years old vs 33 years old?

Not really comparing like vs like here, lol

For the sake of argument we have given Zu the nod over the other two. The only question being raised here is whether other teams would consider him $5M/yr better.

I think you would need to look at sort of similar players to Zu at a more similar age who aren't being signed post-buy out. So interior primarily rebound, finish and defense bigs who aren't the best at perimeter defense and don't shoot outside much or at all.

Steven Adams (28 years old): November 23, 2020 - 2 years / $35M extension ($17.5M/year)
Jusuf Nurkic (27 years old): signed for $12M/year
Mason Plumlee (31 years old): $8.3M/year
Derrick Favors (30 years old): $9.7M/year
Jakob Poetl (25 years old): $8.7M/year

You can find more, but I'm not going through the whole league. Zubac at 24 years old is the youngest of everyone I've listed here, the range we have is from about $8 million to at the top end with Adams, $17.5 million. So if the question is "other teams would consider him $5 million/year better", well, other teams would consider him to be worth about $8 million. The direct comparison to those guys who are either old or bought out is irrelevant because they aren't signing for market value, they generally end up signing for a specific role or situation because they are already getting paid. So most teams don't end up being in the running for those guys anyways.

So if we're asking the honest question of what his market value would be, around $8 million seems to be it.

Good arguments, thanks. But Adams' contract is an albatross and he's far superior to Zu anyway; Nurkic averaged 17/10 in 19-20 and was poised to jump to the next level before he got hurt. I don't think Zu has shown that kind of growth possibility.

Plumlee is a good comp--overpaid by a perennial noncontender [Charlotte], however. Poeltl is another good comp and I think the Spurs were nuts to throw that kind of dough at him, but they are also in the middle of a talent drain and are motivated to overpay to keep what they have. [The Hornets and Spurs have the 2nd and 3rd-lowest payrolls behind Memphis.]

And it just cost Utah a FRP to dump Favors' $9M on OKC, which directly argues against your case. And remember, Zu only averaged about 14 mpg in both the Mavs and Jazz series, hardly a ringing endorsement of his value in the 2021 NBA.

[og15]

For the sake of argument we have given Zu the nod over the other two. The only question being raised here is whether other teams would consider him $5M/yr better.

I think you would need to look at sort of similar players to Zu at a more similar age who aren't being signed post-buy out. So interior primarily rebound, finish and defense bigs who aren't the best at perimeter defense and don't shoot outside much or at all.

Steven Adams (28 years old): November 23, 2020 - 2 years / $35M extension ($17.5M/year)
Jusuf Nurkic (27 years old): signed for $12M/year
Mason Plumlee (31 years old): $8.3M/year
Derrick Favors (30 years old): $9.7M/year
Jakob Poetl (25 years old): $8.7M/year

You can find more, but I'm not going through the whole league. Zubac at 24 years old is the youngest of everyone I've listed here, the range we have is from about $8 million to at the top end with Adams, $17.5 million. So if the question is "other teams would consider him $5 million/year better", well, other teams would consider him to be worth about $8 million. The direct comparison to those guys who are either old or bought out is irrelevant because they aren't signing for market value, they generally end up signing for a specific role or situation because they are already getting paid. So most teams don't end up being in the running for those guys anyways.

So if we're asking the honest question of what his market value would be, around $8 million seems to be it.

Good arguments, thanks. But Adams' contract is an albatross and he's far superior to Zu anyway; Nurkic averaged 17/10 in 19-20 and was poised to jump to the next level before he got hurt. I don't think Zu has shown that kind of growth possibility.

Plumlee is a good comp--overpaid by a perennial noncontender [Charlotte], however. Poeltl is another good comp and I think the Spurs were nuts to throw that kind of dough at him, but they are also in the middle of a talent drain and are motivated to overpay to keep what they have. [The Hornets and Spurs have the 2nd and 3rd-lowest payrolls behind Memphis.]

And it just cost Utah a FRP to dump Favors' $9M on OKC, which directly argues against your case. And remember, Zu only averaged about 14 mpg in both the Mavs and Jazz series, hardly a ringing endorsement of his value in the 2021 NBA.

NBA's salary cap is $112M, Zubac makes about 6.7% of the salary cap. In 13-14 when the salary cap was around $58.7 million, this was the equivalent of a $3.9 million contract. I like to look at contracts relative to the salary cap, not just on the specific number.

Paying a rotation C, approx 20 mpg player around 7% of the cap is extremely normal. Zubac is the 28th highest paid C in the league, and you add some of the C's still on rookie contracts, he will be lower soon.

I get that you don't like him much, but he's not really the kind of player whose contract is worth complaining about.

[esqtvd]

I think you would need to look at sort of similar players to Zu at a more similar age who aren't being signed post-buy out. So interior primarily rebound, finish and defense bigs who aren't the best at perimeter defense and don't shoot outside much or at all.

Steven Adams (28 years old): November 23, 2020 - 2 years / $35M extension ($17.5M/year)
Jusuf Nurkic (27 years old): signed for $12M/year
Mason Plumlee (31 years old): $8.3M/year
Derrick Favors (30 years old): $9.7M/year
Jakob Poetl (25 years old): $8.7M/year

You can find more, but I'm not going through the whole league. Zubac at 24 years old is the youngest of everyone I've listed here, the range we have is from about $8 million to at the top end with Adams, $17.5 million. So if the question is "other teams would consider him $5 million/year better", well, other teams would consider him to be worth about $8 million. The direct comparison to those guys who are either old or bought out is irrelevant because they aren't signing for market value, they generally end up signing for a specific role or situation because they are already getting paid. So most teams don't end up being in the running for those guys anyways.

So if we're asking the honest question of what his market value would be, around $8 million seems to be it.

Good arguments, thanks. But Adams' contract is an albatross and he's far superior to Zu anyway; Nurkic averaged 17/10 in 19-20 and was poised to jump to the next level before he got hurt. I don't think Zu has shown that kind of growth possibility.

Plumlee is a good comp--overpaid by a perennial noncontender [Charlotte], however. Poeltl is another good comp and I think the Spurs were nuts to throw that kind of dough at him, but they are also in the middle of a talent drain and are motivated to overpay to keep what they have. [The Hornets and Spurs have the 2nd and 3rd-lowest payrolls behind Memphis.]

And it just cost Utah a FRP to dump Favors' $9M on OKC, which directly argues against your case. And remember, Zu only averaged about 14 mpg in both the Mavs and Jazz series, hardly a ringing endorsement of his value in the 2021 NBA.

NBA's salary cap is $112M, Zubac makes about 6.7% of the salary cap. In 13-14 when the salary cap was around $58.7 million, this was the equivalent of a $3.9 million contract. I like to look at contracts relative to the salary cap, not just on the specific number.

Paying a rotation C, approx 20 mpg player around 7% of the cap is extremely normal. Zubac is the 28th highest paid C in the league, and you add some of the C's still on rookie contracts, he will be lower soon.

I get that you don't like him much, but he's not really the kind of player whose contract is worth complaining about.

To clarify, my topic is actually his [presumed] trade value. Zu has been put forth as one of our few desirable commodities and I think that might have been true even a year ago [Favors got his $9M in 2020] but not now. Thus my post.

FTR--although he's been a sacred cow around here, I love Zu too. And although I think his needle movement has stalled--and 14 mpg in two consecutive playoff series proves it--you're correct that when you're blowing up the cap like we are, $5M either way doesn't matter all that much. We'll survive Justise Winslow too if he remains a meh.