2016 NBA Draft

[mkwest]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/AdamZagoria/status/733660492338728960[/tweet]

Draft Express
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BXN2uiPvEI[/youtube]

[QRich3]

I do disagree about players and developing into the guys they are based on the team they go to. Sure, there's some impact, but the player is the most important impact. The Spurs could have given Kawhi all the right things and if he didn't have the drive he'd be nothing but a nice defensive guy with good physical tools, good player, sure, but not the same. The most telling thing is Kawhi searching out the Spurs shooting coach before the lockout and before teams could no longer contact players, getting tips on his shooting, then coming to training camp with a drastically improved shot after working on it himself. That's a player that's going to be good anywhere they go, he sought improvement. There's a drive, willingness to develop and perseverance that gets players to the level they need to be at. The team they go to can affect the timeline or the path to them showing their full potential, certainly, but in the majority of cases, it is not and should not be the determining factor. We can argue that the Spurs gave him a smoother transition than most teams would be able to, or even got him to where he is now, maybe a season early than some other team could, but he's the kind of player that would be good no matter what.

We can look at a recent and close to home example of Eric Bledsoe. He's now on Phoenix and is a player who is a borderline All-Star if he can stay healthy. We know he started from being a backup to a lot of better guards. If Bledsoe had began his career on a team that gave him all the minutes and the "chance to develop", people would after the fact say "if Bledsoe was stuck on a team like the Clippers behind a PG like Chris Paul, he wouldn't have been able to develop into the player he is today". Michael Redd behind Ray Allen, people would say a similar thing.

Paul George got drafted to a team with Danny Granger as the starting SF, but he showed the skills and continued to develop to forced them to play him however they could. I actually think a guy like Westbrook could have benefitted earlier from being behind a PG like a Conley. He's gotten better now in terms of being a little more controlled, and he might have learned earlier playing with a guy like that in practice and watching him for multiple seasons. Most likely Westbrook would have pushed himself ahead of Conley by year 3 though, they were only one year off draft wise. Hollins before that might have ended up starting them together or making Westbrook the 6th man off the bench, and by the time Conley's or his rookie contract expires, one would either have been traded or they'll have to make the decision on what to do with two players like that.

The general difference is not whether guys become as good, it's usually the timeline of opportunity to show how good they are. Look at Reggie Jackson, again, who knows what people would have said if instead he was on a team that he could play more in his younger years. "It's good he didn't get stuck on a team like OKC behind a guy like Westbrook because he wouldn't have been able to develop like this". Actually for a lot of young guys, being stuck behind those really good players helps them to get even better. If due to that career start they respond with being content as a backup and with no drive to become a starter, then mentally that's not the type of player that would become a star or superstar in any other situation anyways.

The issue of course is that it is not any sort of exact science when it comes to figuring out which players are like that, especially when you have the added factor or money and all the distractions it brings along with it. A guy who might have been an extremely hard worker before coming into the NBA can become fairly complacent after the lifestyle becomes a factor. A player who might not have necessarily been known for their great hard work, just regular worker might be a guy who had extreme drive and also had the talent, then takes full advantage of every means of development available at the NBA level and becomes really good. This is among other factors of course.

Well, it's definitely not black and white, and specially with players of the talent of Leonard, George or Bledsoe, having a diminished role is not gonna have them fade out of the league, but it's surely gonna affect what kind of player they become. Even with Indiana having a pretty decent history of developing young players, I'm convinced Kawhi wouldn't develop into a top 5 player there. Or anywhere else really. Bledsoe is a curious case, since I'm not sure he'd be the kind of player he is today if we kept him. Remember he was not considered a starter level player when we had him (of course we knew he was), and people thought a guy like Arron Afflalo had a lot more value than him. I remember a Zach Lowe article that said most executives around the league didn't believe he'd be a starter in the league, even after the trade to the Suns.

Bledsoe's case is similar to previous guys like Jermaine O'Neal or Zach Randolph, where they showed flashes of talent, but they didn't really become solid NBA players until they were given a expanded role. Which is kind of the point I wanted to make about the difficulty of developing rotation players in a team that's trying to compete for a title.

And of course, these guys we're talking about were allstar type of talents, it's even harder for fringe role players. An we're mentioning the stories that ended well after a change of team. Who knows how many guys with NBA talent never got this chance and are now out of the league. How many guys like Whiteside would thrive under a fitting role, but never got it and ended up in Europe or China. Whiteside got the unlikely chance to get back, but how many guys didn't.

I do agree that the player is obviously the most important factor, but being good and having a decent drive is far from a guarantee that you're gonna make it into the league.

[og15]

Certainly opportunity is important, and some guys get more than others, but if a guy is truly good enough they tend to stick around long enough to find that right opportunity. Someone like Kyle Lowry for example who had been pigeon holed into being considered a backup but was not settling for that.

Randolph, JO, etc are nice examples. JO was really ypung though so it was always known that he needed time, and Randolph showed some skills off the bench and in the chances he got that they basically knew that it was just a matter of time. These guys would certainly have already shown in practice that they belong. Sometimes you just have to wait for the older guys to get traded, leave in free agency or retire, or even an injury, and you get your chance. I believe David West was behind PJ Brown for his first couple of seasons, then he came on the scene. The majority of guys don't necessarily get a starting role right off the bat.

Whiteside is another good example, he needed development time, but he also had attitude issues that did not make teams as willing to stick with him. If not Miami though he would have found some team to give him a chance and when he's killing their starting C in practice, and blocking what seems like everything, then eyes will start to open.

I do think that for some guys it's also adjustment. If you don't have star level talent, you need to be able to fit into a role or a niche, and some guys who are really talented otherwise either can't, aren't willing to or never figure out their "niche" in the NBA, so despite their talent, they don't stick.

[mkwest]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/chrisadempsey/status/733729058291212289[/tweet]
Josh Scott - Draft Express
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eIZOA_giKM8[/youtube]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/AdamZagoria/status/734907071301324800[/tweet]
AJ English - Draft Express

[QRich3]

Certainly opportunity is important, and some guys get more than others, but if a guy is truly good enough they tend to stick around long enough to find that right opportunity. Someone like Kyle Lowry for example who had been pigeon holed into being considered a backup but was not settling for that.

Randolph, JO, etc are nice examples. JO was really ypung though so it was always known that he needed time, and Randolph showed some skills off the bench and in the chances he got that they basically knew that it was just a matter of time. These guys would certainly have already shown in practice that they belong. Sometimes you just have to wait for the older guys to get traded, leave in free agency or retire, or even an injury, and you get your chance. I believe David West was behind PJ Brown for his first couple of seasons, then he came on the scene. The majority of guys don't necessarily get a starting role right off the bat.

Whiteside is another good example, he needed development time, but he also had attitude issues that did not make teams as willing to stick with him. If not Miami though he would have found some team to give him a chance and when he's killing their starting C in practice, and blocking what seems like everything, then eyes will start to open.

I do think that for some guys it's also adjustment. If you don't have star level talent, you need to be able to fit into a role or a niche, and some guys who are really talented otherwise either can't, aren't willing to or never figure out their "niche" in the NBA, so despite their talent, they don't stick.

Yeah, those are examples we all remember because they are all star level talents that had some trouble to get a niche in the league. This all started talking about Bullock/Crabbe type of players though, guys that even at the end of their rookie deal, it's not safe to say if they have a place in the league or not. These are the cases I meant that probably go out of the league every year, where if they found a good fit they could carve a place.

[og15]

Very true. The more borderline guys, opportunity can make a big difference. Bullock could be an NBA level player but bounce around to situations that aren't conducive to him producing much and by the time he knows it no one is really interested in him and if he wants to stay in the league he'll have to take the hard road. Might as well go to Europe or somewhere else and make some more money.

More in depth statistical approach to player analysis is helping some of those guys but maybe not helping some others so much. The guys who can put up points but are inefficient and don't necessarily give value in other areas are possibly dropping out quicker than in the past.

A good attitude and hard work can keep you around for a long time though which is also interesting. There are those guys who barely get minutes anywhere but are always on a team.

Edit: I meant to say stay in the league, not start in the league

[mkwest]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/DanWoikeSports/status/735202686383980544[/tweet]
Gary Payton II- Draft Express
Gary Payton II - NBADraft.net
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SP9uMYS5GY0[/youtube]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pxf_dhbCXuk[/youtube]

Malcolm Brogdon - Draft Express
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-D7t1zpIas[/youtube]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=11xBzSp9Y8U[/youtube]

Danuel House - Draft Express
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oE5rmp7PIB4[/youtube]

Marshall Plumlee - Draft Express
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tN44rLX13Fs[/youtube]

[Quake Griffin]

We can stop saying OKC is having the same problem building around their 2 stars as we do.

[QRich3]

We can stop saying OKC is having the same problem building around their 2 stars as we do.

Can we? are we gonna act like they have no weaknesses, like Robertson is an awesome player because he's just happening to get offensive rebounds and the occasional cut when they play them 4-on-5 because of him?

Austin Rivers could look as good as Robertson if we were playing them right now, I have no doubt. Probably better. And Cameron Payne is playing as much as CJ Wilcox would. So let's not knee jerk and act like they're doing all of this because of their late round drafting, when the narrative was they had nothing around their two stars just a couple weeks ago.

They're abusing the Warriors for the exact same reason they were abusing the Spurs and the Grizzlies and us in the last few seasons, because they're just so long and athletic that they can be everywhere on defense, and because their two stars can get effective offense off of isolations any time they want. They're a really good team that is playing their best basketball at the right moment, we could've too if everything went right for us.

[nickhx2]

what burns me is that really could have been us.

[mkwest]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=algjCX6vMkA[/youtube]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/DanWoikeSports/status/735680417148211201[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/RowanKavner/status/735579718536167424[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/RowanKavner/status/735618052750872577[/tweet]

[Quake Griffin]

We can stop saying OKC is having the same problem building around their 2 stars as we do.

Can we? are we gonna act like they have no weaknesses, like Robertson is an awesome player because he's just happening to get offensive rebounds and the occasional cut when they play them 4-on-5 because of him?

Austin Rivers could look as good as Robertson if we were playing them right now, I have no doubt. Probably better. And Cameron Payne is playing as much as CJ Wilcox would. So let's not knee jerk and act like they're doing all of this because of their late round drafting, when the narrative was they had nothing around their two stars just a couple weeks ago.

They're abusing the Warriors for the exact same reason they were abusing the Spurs and the Grizzlies and us in the last few seasons, because they're just so long and athletic that they can be everywhere on defense, and because their two stars can get effective offense off of isolations any time they want. They're a really good team that is playing their best basketball at the right moment, we could've too if everything went right for us.

You brought up the late drafting on this one because you think we're picking up where we left off. Convenient, because it allows us to not discuss Steven Adams, a lottery pick....which you'd undoubtedly say, we had no chance of getting....that's when I'd refer to the post of mine you quoted. We're not having the same problems.

And Roberson is solid for his draft spot. We could use a pick like him moving forward. Sure he's a self check, but he plays his role well and ends up being a positive contributor to the team. Draft pick + solid contributor = depth and success.


Explain how you say their length is winning it for them but then say Austin can look as good as him?

Warriors? Wing length and athleticism...chip
Spurs? Wing length and athleticism...chip
OKC? WLAA.....in the driver's seat in the WCF.
Clips? Wes, Luc, Pierce, Geoff, non long 6'7" bullock -> Austin, and CJ Wilcox at 6'5"

they're not perfect but they're cashing in the only chip they have (length and athleticism) to make an NCAA cinderella run in these playoffs.
We don't have a chip to cash in.

[QRich3]

You brought up the late drafting on this one because you think we're picking up where we left off. Convenient, because it allows us to not discuss Steven Adams, a lottery pick....which you'd undoubtedly say, we had no chance of getting....that's when I'd refer to the post of mine you quoted. We're not having the same problems.

And Roberson is solid for his draft spot. We could use a pick like him moving forward. Sure he's a self check, but he plays his role well and ends up being a positive contributor to the team. Draft pick + solid contributor = depth and success.


Explain how you say their length is winning it for them but then say Austin can look as good as him?

Warriors? Wing length and athleticism...chip
Spurs? Wing length and athleticism...chip
OKC? WLAA.....in the driver's seat in the WCF.
Clips? Wes, Luc, Pierce, Geoff, non long 6'7" bullock -> Austin, and CJ Wilcox at 6'5"

they're not perfect but they're cashing in the only chip they have (length and athleticism) to make an NCAA cinderella run in these playoffs.
We don't have a chip to cash in.

Not sure what you're trying to argue here or what exactly you are implying I'm doing, but I'm not trying do any mental gymnastics just to be right or whatever you're suggesting. Just trying to argue how I see things, no malicious intents to make up boundaries and be right for the sake of being right.

The point I've been trying to make is, they don't have any more depth than we do. They're a four man team, just like we are. They're playing an 8 man rotation in the playoffs, and half of those guys are really flawed basketball players. Robertson, Foye and Kanter only play one end of the floor, and Waiters is not great at either end. And it's just being enough for them, as it could've been enough for us in the right circumstances. They also gave two lottery protected picks for end-of-rotation guys that can be very useful in the right match ups, like Kanter against the Spurs and Waiters against the Warriors. Just like we did for Green who could've been huge against the Warriors for us.

And their coach is really good and can make up for their players flaws with creative strategy, like playing Robertson as a big man, since Ibaka can play as a wing on offense and keep spacing clean. Ibaka's the only guy in the league that can do that by the way, play as a wing on offense and as a rim protector on defense, so they have another advantage there. We have a very good coach that can make up for roster deficiencies too, and we've seen it when we got away with Crawford guarding Leonard for big stretches or when Portland tried to go at Redick in the post this year.

You don't specifically need length to win, but it helps, and in their case it's their biggest strength. We have a different roster construction, we can generate elite offense at any moment with much less effort, and that's our chip to cash in. 29 other teams in the league wish they had that. Surely we could use a guy like Robertson, but they also could use a guy like Austin in place of Foye for instance. or Redick in place of Adams who's starting to be less important as they find success playing small. They have Adams cause they traded one of their core players for him btw, but you already knew that's what I think. We can get an Adams type if we trade Redick or Jordan surely, but does it even make sense?

The rosters are different, but the number of useful players and the impact those players make is very similar, that's where the comparison makes sense. We both have two high end stars, two very good role players, and a bunch of not very good players around them that can thrive in the right moment. And we both have pissed away future assets to get those fringe players.

[mkwest]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ClipsNationSBN/status/737043357969584128[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/ClipsNationSBN/status/737035016836939776[/tweet]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jmd4s2c5BhU[/youtube]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvkJoNjTBd4[/youtube]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLF68bWlVQ0[/youtube]

[mkwest]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/JCameratoCSN/status/737423861243748353[/tweet]
Draft Express
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LivWgtCm9_8[/youtube]

[ejftw]

At this point, whats everyone's shortlist look like?

Still hoping Prince somehow drops? Or have we moved on from that hope?

I got my eyes set on snagging both Ben Bentil and Melo Trimble, though neither play a position of need, just love their motor and talent level. Melo would be a waste though due to Docs infatuation with Austin as the backup point.

The Big West fan in me also hopes we buy a late second for Stefan Jankovic. His offensive repertoire would work well off the bench as the second big, assuming we don't select Bentil.

[mkwest]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/RowanKavner/status/737752572119781378[/tweet]

Cat Barber: PG, 6'3, 173 lbs, JR.
Draft Express - 54th
NBADraft.net - 33rd
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5nl-QGIFy8[/youtube]

Tyrone Wallace: PG, 6'6, 198 lbs, SR.
Draft Express - 74th
NBADraft.net - 57th
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BwWy4siXGLE[/youtube]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPfaxybwIoc[/youtube]

Daniel Hamilton: SG, 6'8, 197 lbs, SO.
Draft Express - 78th
NBADraft.net - 55th
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swkazdnGGmQ[/youtube]

DeAndre Bembry: SF, 6'6, 207 lbs, JR.
Draft Express - 28th
NBADraft.net - 26th
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0PZi3EwJXo[/youtube]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIKqefWp3ac[/youtube]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zp7HY3n3jZY[/youtube]

Zach Auguste: PF, 6'10, 240 lbs, SR.
Draft Express - 80
NBADraft.net - Undrafted
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U4pnaxhCaCg[/youtube]

Guerschon Yabusele: PF, 6'8, 260 lbs, 20yrs (INT)
Draft Express - 35th
NBADraft.net - 32nd
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKW52-2DqMc[/youtube]

[mkwest]

At this point, whats everyone's shortlist look like?

Still hoping Prince somehow drops? Or have we moved on from that hope?

I got my eyes set on snagging both Ben Bentil and Melo Trimble, though neither play a position of need, just love their motor and talent level. Melo would be a waste though due to Docs infatuation with Austin as the backup point.

The Big West fan in me also hopes we buy a late second for Stefan Jankovic. His offensive repertoire would work well off the bench as the second big, assuming we don't select Bentil.

Trimble withdrew from the draft.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/stevekylerNBA/status/735975077632610306[/tweet]

In addition to some of the names that are popular here, I like Patrick McCaw. DX has him at 40, other mocks have him anywhere in the 20's.

[QRich3]

Yeah, McCaw would be nice if some of the not-as-realistic possibilities we've been discussing are off the board.

My draft board (from memory) looks something like this probably:

Prince
Diallo
Luwawu
Baldwin
Valentine
Bembry
McCaw
Levert
Brogdon
Ulis
Onuaku (depending on health of course)


Which reminds me, when are we gonna start to work out the real 1st round prospects? so far I've only seen news of workouts for guys projected in the late 2nd round or undrafted. Which is fine, you have to do your work there, but I'd like to start getting an idea of which real guys we could be picking

[mkwest]

Yeah, McCaw would be nice if some of the not-as-realistic possibilities we've been discussing are off the board.

My draft board (from memory) looks something like this probably:

Prince
Diallo
Luwawu
Baldwin
Valentine
Bembry
McCaw
Levert
Brogdon
Ulis
Onuaku (depending on health of course)


Which reminds me, when are we gonna start to work out the real 1st round prospects? so far I've only seen news of workouts for guys projected in the late 2nd round or undrafted. Which is fine, you have to do your work there, but I'd like to start getting an idea of which real guys we could be picking

They did attend the pro days last week and were able to get a look at some of the players that would be in our range. There's always the possibility that the Clippers have had more secret workouts.