Going Forward to Next Season(2021 Nba Draft #25)

[ejftw]

If Kawhi wants OUT, end of story, he's gone. And he can CHOOSE his destination.

If I'm Kawhi and terminally pissed off with the Clips medical staff and still wanting to stay near home, I opt out and force a S&T to the Dubs. Kawhi has a gun to our head. If he wants out, a S&T is our last hope to get ANYTHING back.

Spoiler:

A sign and trade between the Clippers and cross-town rival Warriors seem unlikely to happen, but if Leonard is deadset on leaving, the Clippers may have to consider their offer. A popular trade package that has been discussed involving the Warriors has been James Wiseman, Andrew Wiggins, the 7th overall pick, and the 14th pick. With this trade, the Clippers could have their center of the future in Wiseman. They would also get back some of the draft capital they gave away in the Paul George deal. Leonard on the Warriors is a scary thought, as a duo of him and Stephen Curry would instantly make them favorites to win the title.

https://lastwordonsports.com/basketball/2021/07/02/kawhi-leonard-free-agent-destinations/

Well, if he opts out, he can't go to GSW, unless they shed Klay and Dray (on top of wiggins) due to HC constraints. It would need to be an opt in and trade.

I predicted the Golden State interest and offer in the Game 6 thread and said, and at the time meant, that I didn’t want to do the deal. People were ... displeased with my thoughts. And I still don’t want to do the deal. But make no mistake about it—that is a lot of raw power to offer for a player who isn’t likely to play much next year. Think of it this way. People were up in arms because we traded 3 picks and swapped picks, along with Gallo and SGA, to get Paul George. This offer is a #7 pick, and a #14 pick, which are likely to be worth (a lot) more than our picks going to OKC. And as much as I like SGA, Wiseman and Wiggins are much more valuable players than the two players we sent out. So, yeah, it’s a fair deal. I don’t want to take it—but if Kawhi and Co. are hell bent on leaving, that deal will make me feel a lot better.

I'm really not sure anyone would agree that Wiggins nor Wiseman are more valuable than SEGA...its also hard to say that these picks are more valuable than what we sent to OKC, as after this trade, we'd probably end up in the lotto this coming season, giving OKC a chance at a top selection and who knows what four years down the line looks.

Even without Kawhi we would've beaten the Suns and went to the Finals with a healthy Ibaka, a few days off in-between games, and by not letting the last second ally-opp happen. With the addition of Wiggins, Wiseman, 7th and 14th picks in this upcoming draft we would become a dynasty in the making and would be set for years to come youth wise.. Are you crazy? Not the biggest fan of Wiggins but his defense is stellar, Wiseman will become a really good big, and we would definitely strike gold on one of the two lotto picks if not both of them. Mann, Kennard, Zu, Jay Scrubb, plus our #25 pick this year.. We would be stacked to death

Without Kawhi, would we get past Dallas? Also, you have a very loose definition of dynasty if you think that move would put the Clippers in that category, alongside the Warriors, Duncan Spurs, Kobe/Shaq Lakers, etc. Those are dynasties.

Also, you are assuming the best of every situation. Wiseman seems like he'll be a solid five, but he's more of a traditional five and his defensive game leaves a lot to be desired to match up against Jokic, AD, Ayton and the ilk. Wiggins would be nothing more than a bad salary we would be handicapped with. Now, if we can send Wiggins and, say, Kennard for Westbrook as as follow up, I'd welcome it.

Also, striking gold on #7 AND #14 is very unlikely.

Here are the last 20 #7 picks:
Coby White (to soon to tell, but seems like he's going to be a decent third guard), Wendell Carter Jr. (probably going to be a 20-24 minute guy), Lauri Markannen (been a major disappointment despite tailor made for this modern NBA), Jamal Murray (BEAST), Emmanuel Mudiay (is he even in the league?), Julius Randle (finally put it together), Ben McLemore (end of bench guy), Harrison Barnes (good third/fourth option), Bismack Biyombo (spot guy), Greg Monroe (out the league), Steph Curry (ELITE), Eric Gordon (peep my user name, but he's been a disappointment), Corey Brewer (was a solid defensive option), Randy Foye (Was a decent third guard), Charlie Villanueva (yea, not much here), Luol Deng (had a couple good seasons, but was never star level), Kirk Hinrich (great glue guy), Nene (had a few good years, but off court reasons held him back), Eddie Griffin (bust), Chris Mihm (****, he went lotto?)

So you got Curry and Murray, then a steep drop to Randle, another drop to EJ, and then, average guys. Hard to say #7 is guaranteed to hit gold. (Clipper history at 7 is EJ, Lo Wright, Lamond Murray fwiw)

#14 is even worse.

Romeo Langoford (too early, but doesn't seem like he'll be a starter), Michael Porter Jr. (injuries caused his slide, still not fully sold), Bam Adebayo (no clue why he slipped, he's damn good), Denzel Valentine (got owned in Drew League), Cameron Payne (was almost out the league, good tempo changing backup), TJ Warren (solid scorer, sieve on D), Shabazz Muhammed (lol), John Henson (lol), Marcus Morris (Definitely a great fourth option, but wouldn't call him gold), Patrick Patterson (hey, another Clipper! Was always a good chemistry guy), Earl Clark (lol), Anthony Randolph (lol), Al Thornton (oh my god, I still can't believe Juice..he would take fade away jumpers over Kyle Korver but try to dunk on athletic bigs), Ronnie Brewer (Oy vey), Rashad Kardashian-McCants (lol).

Not even going to finish it, very unlikely to strike gold at #14, unless your definition of gold is Marcus Morris or Cameron Payne.



If anything, and such a deal is done, I'd try to use #7 and #14 to acquire guys to help imminent. Say, we deal Wiseman to Memphis for #17 and Bane. Then, try to convince Portland into a Wiggins, Rondo, #14, #17 and Bane for McCollum deal. Still gives you #7 to work with, while getting a prolific scorer that would work well in between Bev and PG, who would cover his defensive short comings.

[esqtvd]

[spoiler]

Well, if he opts out, he can't go to GSW, unless they shed Klay and Dray (on top of wiggins) due to HC constraints. It would need to be an opt in and trade.

Like CP did, you mean?

Also, since the Clippers got a decent haul in return, CP's departure came off as pretty honorable, not leaving us holding an empty bag. If I'm Kawhi, after putting a gun to their head to trade their future away for PG, I'd RATHER part ways with the Clippers on a S&T, an amicable divorce. The Clippers get a return for their half of the house and I leave behind child support for my baby Paul George.

IF Kawhi really wants to leave the org--and remember his beef was with the Spurs ORG, not the team--an opt-in and S&T like CP's gets him out clean without the "weak move" abuse Durant took.

[ejftw]

[spoiler]

Like CP did, you mean?

Also, since the Clippers got a decent haul in return, CP's departure came off as pretty honorable, not leaving us holding an empty bag. If I'm Kawhi, after putting a gun to their head to trade their future away for PG, I'd RATHER part ways with the Clippers on a S&T, an amicable divorce. The Clippers get a return for their half of the house and I leave behind child support for my baby Paul George.

IF Kawhi really wants to leave the org--and remember his beef was with the Spurs ORG, not the team--an opt-in and S&T like CP's gets him out clean without the "weak move" abuse Durant took.

CP didn't opt out tho, he did an opt in and trade, which is the only way Kawhi heads to GSW unless he is willing to sign for the tax payers MLE.

[esqtvd]

Wiseman seems like he'll be a solid five, but he's more of a traditional five and his defensive game leaves a lot to be desired to match up against Jokic, AD, Ayton and the ilk. Wiggins would be nothing more than a bad salary we would be handicapped with. Now, if we can send Wiggins and, say, Kennard for Westbrook as as follow up, I'd welcome it.

Also, striking gold on #7 AND #14 is very unlikely.

Here are the last 20 #7 picks:
Coby White (to soon to tell, but seems like he's going to be a decent third guard), Wendell Carter Jr. (probably going to be a 20-24 minute guy), Lauri Markannen (been a major disappointment despite tailor made for this modern NBA), Jamal Murray (BEAST), Emmanuel Mudiay (is he even in the league?), Julius Randle (finally put it together), Ben McLemore (end of bench guy), Harrison Barnes (good third/fourth option), Bismack Biyombo (spot guy), Greg Monroe (out the league), Steph Curry (ELITE), Eric Gordon (peep my user name, but he's been a disappointment), Corey Brewer (was a solid defensive option), Randy Foye (Was a decent third guard), Charlie Villanueva (yea, not much here), Luol Deng (had a couple good seasons, but was never star level), Kirk Hinrich (great glue guy), Nene (had a few good years, but off court reasons held him back), Eddie Griffin (bust), Chris Mihm (****, he went lotto?)

So you got Curry and Murray, then a steep drop to Randle, another drop to EJ, and then, average guys. Hard to say #7 is guaranteed to hit gold. (Clipper history at 7 is EJ, Lo Wright, Lamond Murray fwiw)

#14 is even worse.

Romeo Langoford (too early, but doesn't seem like he'll be a starter), Michael Porter Jr. (injuries caused his slide, still not fully sold), Bam Adebayo (no clue why he slipped, he's damn good), Denzel Valentine (got owned in Drew League), Cameron Payne (was almost out the league, good tempo changing backup), TJ Warren (solid scorer, sieve on D), Shabazz Muhammed (lol), John Henson (lol), Marcus Morris (Definitely a great fourth option, but wouldn't call him gold), Patrick Patterson (hey, another Clipper! Was always a good chemistry guy), Earl Clark (lol), Anthony Randolph (lol), Al Thornton (oh my god, I still can't believe Juice..he would take fade away jumpers over Kyle Korver but try to dunk on athletic bigs), Ronnie Brewer (Oy vey), Rashad Kardashian-McCants (lol).

Not even going to finish it, very unlikely to strike gold at #14, unless your definition of gold is Marcus Morris or Cameron Payne.



If anything, and such a deal is done, I'd try to use #7 and #14 to acquire guys to help imminent. Say, we deal Wiseman to Memphis for #17 and Bane. Then, try to convince Portland into a Wiggins, Rondo, #14, #17 and Bane for McCollum deal. Still gives you #7 to work with, while getting a prolific scorer that would work well in between Bev and PG, who would cover his defensive short comings.

I too share your skepticism about the draft. I never minded GM Doc spending a monkey pick [20 or later] for somebody who could help NOW. The genius Jazz famously sent a 2nd-rounder and cash to grab the mega-longshot French league Rudy Gobert at #27, but in the same draft they traded UP for bust Trey Burke at #9...now on his 6th team.

The same geniuses who so ingeniously maneuvered to get Gobert passed on

10. CJ MCollum
11. Michael Carter-Williams [ROY]
12. Steven Adams
13. Kelly Olynyk
14. Shabazz Muhammad [with Utah's pick]


and
wait for it

wait


wait


ok you already figured it out



15 Giannis Antetokounmpo

[madmaxmedia]

There’s been some pretty good analyses of NBA draft positions, and outside the top 3 the returns get increasingly meager.

#7 is not bad- if you have a target in mind. If it’s just BPA then you’ll probably just end up with a guy. At #14 you’re usually hoping just to land a starter level player or really good back up I think. But we got both SGA and Jerome at a similar spot, so anything goes in the mid 1st.

But as a nuclear option, that trade gives us assets and options. And that is on top of the team that took the Suns to 6 games in very adverse conditions.

This is all just speculating of course anyway. But I do think if Kawhi wants to go title hunting for the next 2-3 years, GSW lines up really with his timeline and an opt out/S&T gives him a respectable out and is a way for GSW to maximize Steph/Klay/Dray.

[ejftw]

Oh no doubt that would be as good as you could expect in the doomsday situation that Kawhi does, in fact want out, and want out to GSW. I was just referring to Clem saying we would strike gold on one, if not both.

I love this draft more than most (I'ma work on a mock this weekend), along with next years, but this is a deep draft for good glue guys, third options...outside of Cade/Green/Evan, I don't see many franchise changers.

I wish we had a pick next year though, Jaden Hardy is going to be an absolute monster. No way to make a move for him, but if Nikola Jovic is available in the 20s, would love to find a way to snag him.

This is all just speculating of course anyway. But I do think if Kawhi wants to go title hunting for the next 2-3 years, GSW lines up really with his timeline and an opt out/S&T gives him a respectable out and is a way for GSW to maximize Steph/Klay/Dray.

If he's going to GSW< it would have to be an opt in and trade. Won't work in a S&T due to HC constraints and would require GSW to shed Klay + Dray.

[esqtvd]

CP didn't opt out tho, he did an opt in and trade, which is the only way Kawhi heads to GSW unless he is willing to sign for the tax payers MLE.

Not going to argue with you, bro. Going to ask for a ruling here from TucsonJeff and our estimable mods and resident sal cap mavens.

Beal makes $34M next year.

https://nba.nbcsports.com/2021/07/22/warriors-stars-reportedly-want-team-to-trade-picks-for-help-now-ideally-beal/

[ejftw]

Let's get this back to draft talk

https://mikeksmind.com/2021/07/23/three-draft-night-targets-for-the-clippers/

If we can leave draft night with that trio, I would be ecstatic.

[MartinToVaught]

I've never bought into this logic of arbitrarily writing off certain draft spots because of players who have been selected there in the past. Every draft is different and some front offices are better at evaluating talent than others. You can't really go by that.

[ejftw]

Tweeted about how I wanted the Clips to find a way to add Scrubb last year, and how I'ma hopefully do the same about Kyree Walker, and he liked the tweet. Having had a chance to see Kyree play HS/AAU, and even speaking to him, really hoping they end up signing him as a UDFA or buying a late second to snag him.

[Clemenza]

Well, if he opts out, he can't go to GSW, unless they shed Klay and Dray (on top of wiggins) due to HC constraints. It would need to be an opt in and trade.



I'm really not sure anyone would agree that Wiggins nor Wiseman are more valuable than SEGA...its also hard to say that these picks are more valuable than what we sent to OKC, as after this trade, we'd probably end up in the lotto this coming season, giving OKC a chance at a top selection and who knows what four years down the line looks.

Even without Kawhi we would've beaten the Suns and went to the Finals with a healthy Ibaka, a few days off in-between games, and by not letting the last second ally-opp happen. With the addition of Wiggins, Wiseman, 7th and 14th picks in this upcoming draft we would become a dynasty in the making and would be set for years to come youth wise.. Are you crazy? Not the biggest fan of Wiggins but his defense is stellar, Wiseman will become a really good big, and we would definitely strike gold on one of the two lotto picks if not both of them. Mann, Kennard, Zu, Jay Scrubb, plus our #25 pick this year.. We would be stacked to death

Without Kawhi, would we get past Dallas? Also, you have a very loose definition of dynasty if you think that move would put the Clippers in that category, alongside the Warriors, Duncan Spurs, Kobe/Shaq Lakers, etc. Those are dynasties.

Also, you are assuming the best of every situation. Wiseman seems like he'll be a solid five, but he's more of a traditional five and his defensive game leaves a lot to be desired to match up against Jokic, AD, Ayton and the ilk. Wiggins would be nothing more than a bad salary we would be handicapped with. Now, if we can send Wiggins and, say, Kennard for Westbrook as as follow up, I'd welcome it.

Also, striking gold on #7 AND #14 is very unlikely.

Here are the last 20 #7 picks:
Coby White (to soon to tell, but seems like he's going to be a decent third guard), Wendell Carter Jr. (probably going to be a 20-24 minute guy), Lauri Markannen (been a major disappointment despite tailor made for this modern NBA), Jamal Murray (BEAST), Emmanuel Mudiay (is he even in the league?), Julius Randle (finally put it together), Ben McLemore (end of bench guy), Harrison Barnes (good third/fourth option), Bismack Biyombo (spot guy), Greg Monroe (out the league), Steph Curry (ELITE), Eric Gordon (peep my user name, but he's been a disappointment), Corey Brewer (was a solid defensive option), Randy Foye (Was a decent third guard), Charlie Villanueva (yea, not much here), Luol Deng (had a couple good seasons, but was never star level), Kirk Hinrich (great glue guy), Nene (had a few good years, but off court reasons held him back), Eddie Griffin (bust), Chris Mihm (****, he went lotto?)

So you got Curry and Murray, then a steep drop to Randle, another drop to EJ, and then, average guys. Hard to say #7 is guaranteed to hit gold. (Clipper history at 7 is EJ, Lo Wright, Lamond Murray fwiw)

#14 is even worse.

Romeo Langoford (too early, but doesn't seem like he'll be a starter), Michael Porter Jr. (injuries caused his slide, still not fully sold), Bam Adebayo (no clue why he slipped, he's damn good), Denzel Valentine (got owned in Drew League), Cameron Payne (was almost out the league, good tempo changing backup), TJ Warren (solid scorer, sieve on D), Shabazz Muhammed (lol), John Henson (lol), Marcus Morris (Definitely a great fourth option, but wouldn't call him gold), Patrick Patterson (hey, another Clipper! Was always a good chemistry guy), Earl Clark (lol), Anthony Randolph (lol), Al Thornton (oh my god, I still can't believe Juice..he would take fade away jumpers over Kyle Korver but try to dunk on athletic bigs), Ronnie Brewer (Oy vey), Rashad Kardashian-McCants (lol).

Not even going to finish it, very unlikely to strike gold at #14, unless your definition of gold is Marcus Morris or Cameron Payne.



If anything, and such a deal is done, I'd try to use #7 and #14 to acquire guys to help imminent. Say, we deal Wiseman to Memphis for #17 and Bane. Then, try to convince Portland into a Wiggins, Rondo, #14, #17 and Bane for McCollum deal. Still gives you #7 to work with, while getting a prolific scorer that would work well in between Bev and PG, who would cover his defensive short comings.

Of course we needed Kawhi against Dallas without question and for the record I want him to remain a Clipper.. we're just talking about a saving grace situation for us if he were indeed to somehow leave us for another team. And the draft is random as f*ck, who are you to say we would strike out completely with the 7th and 14th picks? Did we strike out with SGA at #11 three years ago. Mann at #48?? Sure we stuck out with JRob and Kabengele but that just goes to show you how random and unpredictable the draft is. I'll stand by my word and say we definitely strike gold on at least one of the picks. You say we whiff on both, so be it. And I think Wiseman becomes something outside of Golden State which isn't a big friendly system at all. Maybe me using the word dynasty was a bit too much but you saying we fall into lottery status minus Kahwi was just as bad

[ejftw]

Where did I say anything about striking out? I'm pointing out that you acting as if the team is guaranteed a star in the draft is just...false.

This franchise has never been great at scouting, and while the recent FO has done a better job (Mann, Scrubb, SeGa), they still have plenty of duds (Jerome, dealing a first for Fondue, Oturu).

Wiseman, at best, would make a Capela type impact. I'd rather see if ATL would take him for the Big O than keep him. Or see if Mem gives 17+Bane.

[madmaxmedia]

I've never bought into this logic of arbitrarily writing off certain draft spots because of players who have been selected there in the past. Every draft is different and some front offices are better at evaluating talent than others. You can't really go by that.

It's not so much writing off draft picks based on certain examples, as looking at historical analyses of average return by draft position (at least that's what I try to do lol.) These are a little old, but still relevant I think:

http://www.82games.com/nbadraft2.htm
https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

You can of course do much better (SGA) or much worse (Jerome) than average. Both guys were essentially drafted at the same spot since they were back to back IIRC, so a great example of the variance you can get even within the same front office.

[Clemenza]

Where did I say anything about striking out? I'm pointing out that you acting as if the team is guaranteed a star in the draft is just...false.

This franchise has never been great at scouting, and while the recent FO has done a better job (Mann, Scrubb, SeGa), they still have plenty of duds (Jerome, dealing a first for Fondue, Oturu).

Wiseman, at best, would make a Capela type impact. I'd rather see if ATL would take him for the Big O than keep him. Or see if Mem gives 17+Bane.

I'm talking about either a starter or a solid rotational player, I never said star. Whiffing out is JRob and Kabengele. Striking gold is SGA and TMann. If a drafted player turns into a star then that's the greatest outcome for a draft pick hands down but I rarely expect most of these guys to become stars. Even guys drafted in the top 10.

[KL2]

Woj said he’s gotten no indication Kawhi wants to leave the Clippers. The team is operating with him on the roster but the expectation is that he could miss the entire season.

I don’t see how they can run it back with a tweak or two. I gotta believe they make a trade or two.

[esqtvd]

Woj said he’s gotten no indication Kawhi wants to leave the Clippers. The team is operating with him on the roster but the expectation is that he could miss the entire season.

I don’t see how they can run it back with a tweak or two. I gotta believe they make a trade or two.

If Kawhi can return for the playoffs, you can run it back. But this team is too old to run it back AGAIN in 2022-23. The Clippers already had the 2nd oldest team this year at 28.9 [Lakers 29.1].

age as of April 2023 when the playoffs start

Bev 34
Batum 34
Ibaka 33
Reggie 33
Marcus 33
PG 33 in May
Kawhi 32 in June

Even if you dump a few you're still OLD. Even the "kids" Mann and Kennard will be 26. The org has some serious reality coming down hard and fast now, tick tock, tick tock.

[ejftw]

We knew that this was coming, the FO pushed in all the chips for the last two seasons and the next two while basically sacrificing the mid to late 20s in hopes for a ring. Lakers did the same, but they got their title, we need to figure out a way to get it done within the next couple of seasons before we head back to the basement for a few years.

[Roscoe Sheed]

Woj said he’s gotten no indication Kawhi wants to leave the Clippers. The team is operating with him on the roster but the expectation is that he could miss the entire season.

I don’t see how they can run it back with a tweak or two. I gotta believe they make a trade or two.

If Kawhi can return for the playoffs, you can run it back. But this team is too old to run it back AGAIN in 2022-23. The Clippers already had the 2nd oldest team this year at 28.9 [Lakers 29.1].

age as of April 2023 when the playoffs start

Bev 34
Batum 34
Ibaka 33
Reggie 33
Marcus 33
PG 33 in May
Kawhi 32 in June

Even if you dump a few you're still OLD. Even the "kids" Mann and Kennard will be 26. The org has some serious reality coming down hard and fast now, tick tock, tick tock.

I agree, that would be too many guys nearing their mid-30s, but there isn't as much of a distinct dropoff at that age as there used to be- for example, CP3 and Lowry are still very good players.

[esqtvd]

Woj said he’s gotten no indication Kawhi wants to leave the Clippers. The team is operating with him on the roster but the expectation is that he could miss the entire season.

I don’t see how they can run it back with a tweak or two. I gotta believe they make a trade or two.

If Kawhi can return for the playoffs, you can run it back. But this team is too old to run it back AGAIN in 2022-23. The Clippers already had the 2nd oldest team this year at 28.9 [Lakers 29.1].

age as of April 2023 when the playoffs start

Bev 34
Batum 34
Ibaka 33
Reggie 33
Marcus 33
PG 33 in May
Kawhi 32 in June

Even if you dump a few you're still OLD. Even the "kids" Mann and Kennard will be 26. The org has some serious reality coming down hard and fast now, tick tock, tick tock.

I agree, that would be too many guys nearing their mid-30s, but there isn't as much of a distinct dropoff at that age as there used to be- for example, CP3 and Lowry are still very good players.

So was Steve Nash through 35. OTOH Blake and DJ are 32 and 33 and are toast. But injuries are even more a worry than a falloff in performance. How many of them even make it all the way to the playoffs?

[KL2]

That Jonas/Zion front court is going to be brutal. First trade finally.