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the final 20 games

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the final 20 games: how do you feel?

feeling great - we have the talent, just need full health and lue's gonna go full tactical in the playoffs
2
13%
feeling reasonably good - need some good luck and for lue to come to his senses, and we can go deep
5
31%
feeling average - whatever we're doing now is not enough to go deep, let alone win it all
7
44%
feeling sub-par - we don't have what it takes to get past the first round
1
6%
feeling F-tier - for one reason or another, we're screwed
1
6%
 
Total votes: 16

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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#21 » by donemilio21 » Mon Feb 27, 2023 9:01 pm

Kawhi is playing most minutes in his career, 36mpg in 2023, 37.8mpg last 8 games and we could only go 4-4.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#22 » by NickP » Mon Feb 27, 2023 9:15 pm

donemilio21 wrote:Kawhi is playing most minutes in his career, 36mpg in 2023, 37.8mpg last 8 games and we could only go 4-4.

And we wasted some masterpieces from Kawhi.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#23 » by madmaxmedia » Mon Feb 27, 2023 9:21 pm

esqtvd wrote:
madmaxmedia wrote:Morris will be a trade piece for sure simply because he's expiring. Outside of perhaps Ty, no one has considered him to have positive trade value for awhile. So hopefully we'll have some addition by subtraction there.



It's not Ty about loving Morris. Morris plays because at 34, Batum can't carry a full load and doesn't have it every night.

Ty is already maxing Batum out, and in his last 10 games, the results are

22 mpg, 6.2, 4.8 rpg, 1.8 apg
36.4% FG
31.9% 3-pt FG
minus-2.8

Nico is fading :-( And at least Morris is somehow plus+3.8, 2nd only behind Kawhi and way above Paul George. Marcus is completely mediocre but he is not "killing us out there." The problem is elsewhere--both PG and Mann are minus-0.9.

As for RoCo, he got 26 minutes in the Bucks loss on Feb 10 and put up only 6 points 2 rebs and 2 assists. A team worst minus-3.3 over our last 10.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional?LastNGames=10&TeamID=1610612746&dir=A&sort=PLUS_MINUS


I don't ignore the plus minus numbers, but there is a clear difference between Marcus and Terance's per 36 numbers. Marcus is 15.3/5.2/2.3 on 43.2%/37.5%/78% and Terance is 14.1/5.7/3.4 on 52.5%/39/2%/77.5%.

I guess the biggest factor is simply that Marcus is a PF and we don't have enough minutes to fill the position. You are right about Nico. RoCo had a breakout stretch last year but his shooting percentage have tailed off significantly this year.

What I really wish is that we would have had 10 games with the ASB acquisitions before we signed Russ. Esthetically I liked watching the team more, but 2 games is a small sample size to conclude anything from (also Gordon looked a lot better when we first got him.)

Overall, signing a somewhat maligned buyout guard and inserting him into the starting lineup is a clear sign of desperation (which may have been warranted TBH.) I would have much preferred to add him as another wrinkle to our roster, rather than a core piece because his upside as a starter the last few years is basically low efficiency production that doesn't really belong on an elite team.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#24 » by esqtvd » Mon Feb 27, 2023 9:37 pm

madmaxmedia wrote:
esqtvd wrote:
madmaxmedia wrote:Morris will be a trade piece for sure simply because he's expiring. Outside of perhaps Ty, no one has considered him to have positive trade value for awhile. So hopefully we'll have some addition by subtraction there.



It's not Ty about loving Morris. Morris plays because at 34, Batum can't carry a full load and doesn't have it every night.

Ty is already maxing Batum out, and in his last 10 games, the results are

22 mpg, 6.2, 4.8 rpg, 1.8 apg
36.4% FG
31.9% 3-pt FG
minus-2.8

Nico is fading :-( And at least Morris is somehow plus+3.8, 2nd only behind Kawhi and way above Paul George. Marcus is completely mediocre but he is not "killing us out there." The problem is elsewhere--both PG and Mann are minus-0.9.

As for RoCo, he got 26 minutes in the Bucks loss on Feb 10 and put up only 6 points 2 rebs and 2 assists. A team worst minus-3.3 over our last 10.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional?LastNGames=10&TeamID=1610612746&dir=A&sort=PLUS_MINUS


I don't ignore the plus minus numbers, but there is a clear difference between Marcus and Terance's per 36 numbers. Marcus is 15.3/5.2/2.3 on 43.2%/37.5%/78% and Terance is 14.1/5.7/3.4 on 52.5%/39/2%/77.5%.

I guess the biggest factor is simply that Marcus is a PF and we don't have enough minutes to fill the position. You are right about Nico. RoCo had a breakout stretch last year but his shooting percentage have tailed off significantly this year.

What I really wish is that we would have had 10 games with the ASB acquisitions before we signed Russ. Esthetically I liked watching the team more, but 2 games is a small sample size to conclude anything from (also Gordon looked a lot better when we first got him.)

Overall, signing a somewhat maligned buyout guard and inserting him into the starting lineup is a clear sign of desperation (which may have been warranted TBH.) I would have much preferred to add him as another wrinkle to our roster, rather than a core piece because his upside as a starter the last few years is basically low efficiency production that doesn't really belong on an elite team.


It IS puzzling that Mann's per-36 numbers are so astonishingly good, but efficiency does not equal production. And those stats do not take into account defense or all the "little things" like secondary ballhandling ["hockey assists"], making the proper switches, making up for a teammate's errors on offense OR defense. Or even simply not blowing your defensive assignment.

Or the 3-point THREAT that changes defenses and opens up spacing for everyone else. This was why Kennard's plus/minus was so high despite little actual volume/production, which is probably the case with Morris too. That all shows up in plus/minus but not in per-36.

I would also take a look at PG's plus/minus struggles--both he and Mann are at an unacceptable minus-0.9 over the last 10 games. Whether PG is dragging Mann down or vice-versa, it's Mann who's going to get the hook. We can win without Mann but not without PG.

Again, I'm trying to see what Ty is seeing, and the numbers do bear him out.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#25 » by madmaxmedia » Mon Feb 27, 2023 10:52 pm

esqtvd wrote:
madmaxmedia wrote:
esqtvd wrote:

It's not Ty about loving Morris. Morris plays because at 34, Batum can't carry a full load and doesn't have it every night.

Ty is already maxing Batum out, and in his last 10 games, the results are

22 mpg, 6.2, 4.8 rpg, 1.8 apg
36.4% FG
31.9% 3-pt FG
minus-2.8

Nico is fading :-( And at least Morris is somehow plus+3.8, 2nd only behind Kawhi and way above Paul George. Marcus is completely mediocre but he is not "killing us out there." The problem is elsewhere--both PG and Mann are minus-0.9.

As for RoCo, he got 26 minutes in the Bucks loss on Feb 10 and put up only 6 points 2 rebs and 2 assists. A team worst minus-3.3 over our last 10.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional?LastNGames=10&TeamID=1610612746&dir=A&sort=PLUS_MINUS


I don't ignore the plus minus numbers, but there is a clear difference between Marcus and Terance's per 36 numbers. Marcus is 15.3/5.2/2.3 on 43.2%/37.5%/78% and Terance is 14.1/5.7/3.4 on 52.5%/39/2%/77.5%.

I guess the biggest factor is simply that Marcus is a PF and we don't have enough minutes to fill the position. You are right about Nico. RoCo had a breakout stretch last year but his shooting percentage have tailed off significantly this year.

What I really wish is that we would have had 10 games with the ASB acquisitions before we signed Russ. Esthetically I liked watching the team more, but 2 games is a small sample size to conclude anything from (also Gordon looked a lot better when we first got him.)

Overall, signing a somewhat maligned buyout guard and inserting him into the starting lineup is a clear sign of desperation (which may have been warranted TBH.) I would have much preferred to add him as another wrinkle to our roster, rather than a core piece because his upside as a starter the last few years is basically low efficiency production that doesn't really belong on an elite team.


It IS puzzling that Mann's per-36 numbers are so astonishingly good, but efficiency does not equal production. And those stats do not take into account defense or all the "little things" like secondary ballhandling ["hockey assists"], making the proper switches, making up for a teammate's errors on offense OR defense. Or even simply not blowing your defensive assignment.

Or the 3-point THREAT that changes defenses and opens up spacing for everyone else. This was why Kennard's plus/minus was so high despite little actual volume/production, which is probably the case with Morris too. That all shows up in plus/minus but not in per-36.

I would also take a look at PG's plus/minus struggles--both he and Mann are at an unacceptable minus-0.9 over the last 10 games. Whether PG is dragging Mann down or vice-versa, it's Mann who's going to get the hook. We can win without Mann but not without PG.

Again, I'm trying to see what Ty is seeing, and the numbers do bear him out.


The strange thing is that Mann's per 36 production are actually pretty good (compared to Marcus), but the eye test and general consensus is that Mann is much better at those intangible things than Marcus that should give him a higher plus minus relative to basic per 36 production.

But yeah you're right about being a 3-point threat. Mann is a good 3 point shooter but with a slower release which really impacts how defense can guard him.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#26 » by Roscoe Sheed » Mon Feb 27, 2023 10:52 pm

esqtvd wrote:
madmaxmedia wrote:Morris will be a trade piece for sure simply because he's expiring. Outside of perhaps Ty, no one has considered him to have positive trade value for awhile. So hopefully we'll have some addition by subtraction there.



It's not Ty about loving Morris. Morris plays because at 34, Batum can't carry a full load and doesn't have it every night.

Ty is already maxing Batum out, and in his last 10 games, the results are

22 mpg, 6.2, 4.8 rpg, 1.8 apg
36.4% FG
31.9% 3-pt FG
minus-2.8

Nico is fading :-( And at least Morris is somehow plus+3.8, 2nd only behind Kawhi and way above Paul George. Marcus is completely mediocre but he is not "killing us out there." The problem is elsewhere--both PG and Mann are minus-0.9.

As for RoCo, he got 26 minutes in the Bucks loss on Feb 10 and put up only 6 points 2 rebs and 2 assists. A team worst minus-3.3 over our last 10.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional?LastNGames=10&TeamID=1610612746&dir=A&sort=PLUS_MINUS


Perhaps Covington deserves another chance then or have PG or Kawhi slide over to the 4 spot to give some of the other guards more time on the court.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#27 » by esqtvd » Mon Feb 27, 2023 11:33 pm

Roscoe Sheed wrote:
esqtvd wrote:
madmaxmedia wrote:Morris will be a trade piece for sure simply because he's expiring. Outside of perhaps Ty, no one has considered him to have positive trade value for awhile. So hopefully we'll have some addition by subtraction there.



It's not Ty about loving Morris. Morris plays because at 34, Batum can't carry a full load and doesn't have it every night.

Ty is already maxing Batum out, and in his last 10 games, the results are

22 mpg, 6.2, 4.8 rpg, 1.8 apg
36.4% FG
31.9% 3-pt FG
minus-2.8

Nico is fading :-( And at least Morris is somehow plus+3.8, 2nd only behind Kawhi and way above Paul George. Marcus is completely mediocre but he is not "killing us out there." The problem is elsewhere--both PG and Mann are minus-0.9.

As for RoCo, he got 26 minutes in the Bucks loss on Feb 10 and put up only 6 points 2 rebs and 2 assists. A team worst minus-3.3 over our last 10.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional?LastNGames=10&TeamID=1610612746&dir=A&sort=PLUS_MINUS


Perhaps Covington deserves another chance then or have PG or Kawhi slide over to the 4 spot to give some of the other guards more time on the court.




Kawhi is averaging a backbreaking team-high 37.6 mpg over the last 15 and now we're going to make him bang with PFs. Or experiment with RoCo even though Morris has the 2nd best plus/minus on the team over the last 15 games.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional?LastNGames=15&PerMode=Per100Possessions&TeamID=1610612746&dir=A&sort=PLUS_MINUS

Just seeing this through Ty's eyes. All the alternatives suck even worse.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#28 » by esqtvd » Tue Feb 28, 2023 12:20 am

madmaxmedia wrote:
esqtvd wrote:
madmaxmedia wrote:
I don't ignore the plus minus numbers, but there is a clear difference between Marcus and Terance's per 36 numbers. Marcus is 15.3/5.2/2.3 on 43.2%/37.5%/78% and Terance is 14.1/5.7/3.4 on 52.5%/39/2%/77.5%.

I guess the biggest factor is simply that Marcus is a PF and we don't have enough minutes to fill the position. You are right about Nico. RoCo had a breakout stretch last year but his shooting percentage have tailed off significantly this year.

What I really wish is that we would have had 10 games with the ASB acquisitions before we signed Russ. Esthetically I liked watching the team more, but 2 games is a small sample size to conclude anything from (also Gordon looked a lot better when we first got him.)

Overall, signing a somewhat maligned buyout guard and inserting him into the starting lineup is a clear sign of desperation (which may have been warranted TBH.) I would have much preferred to add him as another wrinkle to our roster, rather than a core piece because his upside as a starter the last few years is basically low efficiency production that doesn't really belong on an elite team.


It IS puzzling that Mann's per-36 numbers are so astonishingly good, but efficiency does not equal production. And those stats do not take into account defense or all the "little things" like secondary ballhandling ["hockey assists"], making the proper switches, making up for a teammate's errors on offense OR defense. Or even simply not blowing your defensive assignment.

Or the 3-point THREAT that changes defenses and opens up spacing for everyone else. This was why Kennard's plus/minus was so high despite little actual volume/production, which is probably the case with Morris too. That all shows up in plus/minus but not in per-36.

I would also take a look at PG's plus/minus struggles--both he and Mann are at an unacceptable minus-0.9 over the last 10 games. Whether PG is dragging Mann down or vice-versa, it's Mann who's going to get the hook. We can win without Mann but not without PG.

Again, I'm trying to see what Ty is seeing, and the numbers do bear him out.


The strange thing is that Mann's per 36 production are actually pretty good (compared to Marcus), but the eye test and general consensus is that Mann is much better at those intangible things than Marcus that should give him a higher plus minus relative to basic per 36 production.

But yeah you're right about being a 3-point threat. Mann is a good 3 point shooter but with a slower release which really impacts how defense can guard him.



Yes, and at 6'8" Morris always can get that shot. At a little under 6'5" Mann is not the same threat: You can sag off him and close out late. THESE are the subtle but real things that even the most advanced stats have trouble detecting but show up in the bigger picture. Any decent pro can shoot 40% if they wait for gimmes.

The other thing about "eye tests" is they catch the highlights but miss when the favorite son disappears, and all of a sudden we leaked 8 points in a minute and a half. Guys like Westbrook and Reggie never disappear, lol. It's either feast or famine. And a guy like Morris has few highlights but if he's keeping his plus/minus up, he's not the problem.

Mann never really hurts us out there either, but he doesn't seem to have an aura that raises the +/-, although you'd suspect he would. And there would probably be little statistical difference if you started Mann for Morris, except Kawhi has to play PF instead of SF, and that's gonna beat up our aircraft carrier even more. You're also removing the Clippers' great height advantage at SG by moving the 6'7" Paul George up to SF.

All these elements can and apparently do affect the plus/minus difference between Morris and Mann, at least at the moment, and it doesn't really refect badly on Mann in the least. It's just a question of fit and chemistry.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#29 » by Roscoe Sheed » Tue Feb 28, 2023 1:47 am

esqtvd wrote:
Roscoe Sheed wrote:
esqtvd wrote:

It's not Ty about loving Morris. Morris plays because at 34, Batum can't carry a full load and doesn't have it every night.

Ty is already maxing Batum out, and in his last 10 games, the results are

22 mpg, 6.2, 4.8 rpg, 1.8 apg
36.4% FG
31.9% 3-pt FG
minus-2.8

Nico is fading :-( And at least Morris is somehow plus+3.8, 2nd only behind Kawhi and way above Paul George. Marcus is completely mediocre but he is not "killing us out there." The problem is elsewhere--both PG and Mann are minus-0.9.

As for RoCo, he got 26 minutes in the Bucks loss on Feb 10 and put up only 6 points 2 rebs and 2 assists. A team worst minus-3.3 over our last 10.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional?LastNGames=10&TeamID=1610612746&dir=A&sort=PLUS_MINUS


Perhaps Covington deserves another chance then or have PG or Kawhi slide over to the 4 spot to give some of the other guards more time on the court.

We don't really know that Covington is a worse alternative considering he hasn't received consistent minutes all season. He should get a chance to find a rhythm. He is a better defender than Morris


Kawhi is averaging a backbreaking team-high 37.6 mpg over the last 15 and now we're going to make him bang with PFs. Or experiment with RoCo even though Morris has the 2nd best plus/minus on the team over the last 15 games.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional?LastNGames=15&PerMode=Per100Possessions&TeamID=1610612746&dir=A&sort=PLUS_MINUS

Just seeing this through Ty's eyes. All the alternatives suck even worse.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#30 » by esqtvd » Tue Feb 28, 2023 2:33 am

Roscoe Sheed wrote:We don't really know that Covington is a worse alternative considering he hasn't received consistent minutes all season. He should get a chance to find a rhythm. He is a better defender than Morris



Experiment with RoCo even though Morris has the 2nd best plus/minus on the team [plus+2.6] over the last 10 games and RoCo has by far the worst [an abominable minus-12.0!!]?

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional?LastNGames=10&PerMode=Per100Possessions&TeamID=1610612746&dir=A&sort=PLUS_MINUS


Ty HAS tried to slip RoCo some minutes but he's done nothing to earn more. He got 26 minutes in the Milwaukee game and only had 6 points, 2 rebs and 2 assists.

It's so weird that Ty gets trashed for experimenting too much and then not experimenting enough. IMO, he hasn't found ANYTHING that really works all year or he would have stuck with it by now. There's a reason PG and Kawhi pushed for Westbrook. They were clearly not happy with Mann as the starter and said nothing about replacing Senior.

Don't you think if they went to Ty and asked for RoCo that Ty would give it a go?
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#31 » by Roscoe Sheed » Tue Feb 28, 2023 2:39 am

esqtvd wrote:
Roscoe Sheed wrote:We don't really know that Covington is a worse alternative considering he hasn't received consistent minutes all season. He should get a chance to find a rhythm. He is a better defender than Morris



Experiment with RoCo even though Morris has the 2nd best plus/minus on the team [plus+2.6] over the last 10 games and RoCo has by far the worst [an abominable minus-12.0!!]?

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional?LastNGames=10&PerMode=Per100Possessions&TeamID=1610612746&dir=A&sort=PLUS_MINUS


Ty HAS tried to slip RoCo some minutes but he's done nothing to earn more. He got 26 minutes in the Milwaukee game and only had 6 points, 2 rebs and 2 assists.

It's so weird that Ty gets trashed for experimenting too much and then not experimenting enough. IMO, he hasn't found ANYTHING that really works all year or he would have stuck with it by now. There's a reason PG and Kawhi pushed for Westbrook. They were clearly not happy with Mann as the starter and said nothing about replacing Senior.

Don't you think if they went to Ty and asked for RoCo that Ty would give it a go?

Plus/minus is misleading with Morris. He frequently is a step slow on defense and as mentioned repeatedly, he is the worst rebounding pf in the league. If not Covington, then slide pg or kawhi up to the 4. They don’t necessarily have to play more minutes- just run the guards out there more. I don’t think it would wear pg or kawhi down as there aren’t a lot of bruising 4s
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#32 » by esqtvd » Tue Feb 28, 2023 2:50 am

Roscoe Sheed wrote:
esqtvd wrote:
Roscoe Sheed wrote:We don't really know that Covington is a worse alternative considering he hasn't received consistent minutes all season. He should get a chance to find a rhythm. He is a better defender than Morris



Experiment with RoCo even though Morris has the 2nd best plus/minus on the team [plus+2.6] over the last 10 games and RoCo has by far the worst [an abominable minus-12.0!!]?

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional?LastNGames=10&PerMode=Per100Possessions&TeamID=1610612746&dir=A&sort=PLUS_MINUS


Ty HAS tried to slip RoCo some minutes but he's done nothing to earn more. He got 26 minutes in the Milwaukee game and only had 6 points, 2 rebs and 2 assists.

It's so weird that Ty gets trashed for experimenting too much and then not experimenting enough. IMO, he hasn't found ANYTHING that really works all year or he would have stuck with it by now. There's a reason PG and Kawhi pushed for Westbrook. They were clearly not happy with Mann as the starter and said nothing about replacing Senior.

Don't you think if they went to Ty and asked for RoCo that Ty would give it a go?

Plus/minus is misleading with Morris. He frequently is a step slow on defense and as mentioned repeatedly, he is the worst rebounding pf in the league. If not Covington, then slide pg or kawhi up to the 4. They don’t necessarily have to play more minutes- just run the guards out there more. I don’t think it would wear pg or kawhi down as there aren’t a lot of bruising 4s



I can't really argue with people's "eye tests." We all know Morris sucks but the stats say he's not the one killing us, and we have no alternatives. Batum will get as many minutes as he can possibly play effectively at age 34. Morris is the placeholder starter just like Mann was.

KL and PG having to make up for Mann's inability to play point guard was obviously more tiring and inefficient than whatever Morris's rebounding and defense insufficiencies do. And the numbers bear that out.

I've been all over Marcus's s*** for YEARS here. This is not an endorsement or even a defense.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#33 » by Roscoe Sheed » Tue Feb 28, 2023 4:44 am

esqtvd wrote:
Roscoe Sheed wrote:
esqtvd wrote:
Experiment with RoCo even though Morris has the 2nd best plus/minus on the team [plus+2.6] over the last 10 games and RoCo has by far the worst [an abominable minus-12.0!!]?

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional?LastNGames=10&PerMode=Per100Possessions&TeamID=1610612746&dir=A&sort=PLUS_MINUS


Ty HAS tried to slip RoCo some minutes but he's done nothing to earn more. He got 26 minutes in the Milwaukee game and only had 6 points, 2 rebs and 2 assists.

It's so weird that Ty gets trashed for experimenting too much and then not experimenting enough. IMO, he hasn't found ANYTHING that really works all year or he would have stuck with it by now. There's a reason PG and Kawhi pushed for Westbrook. They were clearly not happy with Mann as the starter and said nothing about replacing Senior.

Don't you think if they went to Ty and asked for RoCo that Ty would give it a go?

Plus/minus is misleading with Morris. He frequently is a step slow on defense and as mentioned repeatedly, he is the worst rebounding pf in the league. If not Covington, then slide pg or kawhi up to the 4. They don’t necessarily have to play more minutes- just run the guards out there more. I don’t think it would wear pg or kawhi down as there aren’t a lot of bruising 4s



I can't really argue with people's "eye tests." We all know Morris sucks but the stats say he's not the one killing us, and we have no alternatives. Batum will get as many minutes as he can possibly play effectively at age 34. Morris is the placeholder starter just like Mann was.

KL and PG having to make up for Mann's inability to play point guard was obviously more tiring and inefficient than whatever Morris's rebounding and defense insufficiencies do. And the numbers bear that out.

I've been all over Marcus's s*** for YEARS here. This is not an endorsement or even a defense.


I get what you mean about the lack of viable alternatives, but I am thinking back to several weeks ago when Morris got injured and Kennard started in his place. I felt like they played well with that line up (don't have the stats readily available to back it up though). Perhaps Gordon could play the role of floor spacer in the starting line up like Kennard did with the added threat of going to the basket.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#34 » by esqtvd » Tue Feb 28, 2023 5:38 am

Roscoe Sheed wrote:
esqtvd wrote:
Roscoe Sheed wrote:Plus/minus is misleading with Morris. He frequently is a step slow on defense and as mentioned repeatedly, he is the worst rebounding pf in the league. If not Covington, then slide pg or kawhi up to the 4. They don’t necessarily have to play more minutes- just run the guards out there more. I don’t think it would wear pg or kawhi down as there aren’t a lot of bruising 4s



I can't really argue with people's "eye tests." We all know Morris sucks but the stats say he's not the one killing us, and we have no alternatives. Batum will get as many minutes as he can possibly play effectively at age 34. Morris is the placeholder starter just like Mann was.

KL and PG having to make up for Mann's inability to play point guard was obviously more tiring and inefficient than whatever Morris's rebounding and defense insufficiencies do. And the numbers bear that out.

I've been all over Marcus's s*** for YEARS here. This is not an endorsement or even a defense.


I get what you mean about the lack of viable alternatives, but I am thinking back to several weeks ago when Morris got injured and Kennard started in his place. I felt like they played well with that line up (don't have the stats readily available to back it up though). Perhaps Gordon could play the role of floor spacer in the starting line up like Kennard did with the added threat of going to the basket.


Your instincts are correct. Kennard's plus/minus was near the top in all the 10-20 game samples I've linked over the past 2-3 weeks. That's why comparing Marcus' floor-stretching/spacing effect to Luke's is relevant here. Neither one adds very much else in rebounds, assists or even defense. I have no idea at this point if they do the "little things" but if you do all the "little things" and they don't show up on the scoreboard, who cares, lol?

But they are adequate on D and stretch the floor for everybody else and the plus/minus is as good--and no worse--than the guys they're out on the floor with.

You're also right about Eric Gordon. But after a promising first game, he's been a DISASTER. 33% FG and a team-worst minus-9.7 per 100. I think Ty is gonna have to pull the plug on EJ post haste, at least for now.

BTW, Mann is doing very well since he was demoted. He's not even playing faux-point guard with the second unit. Ty's letting Mann be Mann. He's plus+7.0 per game and still getting 26 mpg.

Empty your diapers, Mann-Boy fan-bois. Coach knows what he's doing.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#35 » by Bobbymcgee » Wed Mar 1, 2023 12:56 am

Remaining schedule looks pretty tough. I have a feeling the Clippers are going to finish the season with 42 to 44 wins, maybe 46. Hopefully they can hang on to the fifth or sixth spot going into the playoffs.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#36 » by madmaxmedia » Wed Mar 1, 2023 5:39 pm

Bobbymcgee wrote:Remaining schedule looks pretty tough. I have a feeling the Clippers are going to finish the season with 42 to 44 wins, maybe 46. Hopefully they can hang on to the fifth or sixth spot going into the playoffs.


That seems both very realistic and pathetic, given that we won 42 games last year.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#37 » by esqtvd » Thu Mar 2, 2023 1:55 am

madmaxmedia wrote:
Bobbymcgee wrote:Remaining schedule looks pretty tough. I have a feeling the Clippers are going to finish the season with 42 to 44 wins, maybe 46. Hopefully they can hang on to the fifth or sixth spot going into the playoffs.


That seems both very realistic and pathetic, given that we won 42 games last year.


Since Nov. 1st the Clippers are 18th in defensive rating.

Read on Twitter



now Reggie and Morris are this year's scapegoats

Looking at YOU, Big Two
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#38 » by zimpy27 » Thu Mar 2, 2023 4:36 am

esqtvd wrote:
madmaxmedia wrote:
Bobbymcgee wrote:Remaining schedule looks pretty tough. I have a feeling the Clippers are going to finish the season with 42 to 44 wins, maybe 46. Hopefully they can hang on to the fifth or sixth spot going into the playoffs.


That seems both very realistic and pathetic, given that we won 42 games last year.


Since Nov. 1st the Clippers are 18th in defensive rating.

Read on Twitter



now Reggie and Morris are this year's scapegoats

Looking at YOU, Big Two


Based on BOXLEBRON

Your positive defenders from best to worst last year:
1. Hartenstein
2. Covington
3. Zubac
4. Batum
5. George
6. Bledsoe

This year:
1. Covington
2. Zubac
3. Batum
4. Morris
5. Kawhi
6. George


So maybe losing Hartenstein without replacement and not playing Covington many minutes is the reason for the dip.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#39 » by Scoundreldays » Thu Mar 2, 2023 5:21 am

I know Convington doesn't have the best +/- but couldn't you argue that Morris' are super inflated because he plays with PG, Kawhi and Zubac? I don't feel it's a fair comparison since Convington has never had a chance to with both outside of the preseason.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#40 » by esqtvd » Thu Mar 2, 2023 6:19 am

zimpy27 wrote:
esqtvd wrote:
madmaxmedia wrote:
That seems both very realistic and pathetic, given that we won 42 games last year.


Since Nov. 1st the Clippers are 18th in defensive rating.

Read on Twitter



now Reggie and Morris are this year's scapegoats

Looking at YOU, Big Two


Based on BOXLEBRON

Your positive defenders from best to worst last year:
1. Hartenstein
2. Covington
3. Zubac
4. Batum
5. George
6. Bledsoe

This year:
1. Covington
2. Zubac
3. Batum
4. Morris
5. Kawhi
6. George


So maybe losing Hartenstein without replacement and not playing Covington many minutes is the reason for the dip.



Very excellent point.

Now, Robert Covington played only 509 minutes for the Clippers last year and has already played 584 minutes this year so that's a wash.

But Isaiah did manage 1200 minutes for us, and although he did average 6.7 fouls per 100 possessions which limited his PT, he was indeed a big help [plus+6.6 per 100 possessions or +2.6 per game], especially compared to this year where we have no real backup center at all.

In an 82-game, 19780 minute season, that's about 6% of our minutes. Doesn't seem a lot but it's still a statistically significant amount, especially since this year not only are the non-Zubac minutes bad [-2.5 per 100 possessions this year], Hartenstein's had been a plus. And Zubac's effectiveness is diminished with his 5+ ppg increased workload this year.


Theoretically a +9 swing per 100 possessions and Hartenstein might play 35 possessions a game. ~3 points a game is a lot.

Now, that's just ballparking and theoretical--Hartenstein is only +3 per 100 possessions with the Knicks, who have a better record than us. His frequent foul trouble not only limits his minutes--it also limits his exposure to unfavorable matchups. On those nights, he's not in the game long enough for his stats to take a real beating. ;-)

Still, it's undeniable that perhaps the FO's biggest mistake was letting Hartenstein go to the Knicks at $8M and keeping, say, Covington at $12M. This has nothing to do with Covington; it's just that having no backup center was a statistically measurable significant error.

IMO, it was worth losing Reggie to finally get a backup center in Plumlee, but frankly the second unit was doing very well with Reggie as the backup PG [he had 8 assists last night for the Nugs] and now it's a mess again. The FO plugged one hole and created another.
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