2019 - 2021 Free-Agents

[Galloisdaman]

I like Horford at 16 mill a year for 2 years.

I do not like Horford at 28 mill a year for 4 years.

[SK21209]

I personally only want Horford if Kawhi is coming too and I think the front office is thinking the same. How would Horford and Montrezl fit together though?

[TrueLAfan]

I'm really not on board with Horford at all. Reasoning is simple. I look at Horford in terms of position, skill, and value, and I look at other championship teams and I get one conclusion/comparison--Horace Grant. Different eras and different skill sets, but same position and same value IMO. Grant was a terrific #3 to Jordan/Pippen and Kobe/Shaq. Horford would be great at that too. Except, even if we get Kawhi, we don't have anything like a Pippen or Kobe. I don't see Horford ever filling that role. And we would be paying him like he would or could.

[TrueLAfan]

Follow up. I started writing this a day or two ago, which is why I can post it while in Barcelona having Many Beers. Here's the (far far) better move, IMO:

Rudy Gay - 2 year/$24 million
Kelly Oubre - 3 year/$47 million
Pat Bev - 4 years/$46 million (13-12-11-10)
Zubac – Market hold, up to $7 million. 3 years/$20 million?

With the cap holds for Bev and Zubac, we could sign Kawhi Leonard. We’d be at around $126 million; under the luxury tax. And we’d be great. Hell, even if we didn’t sign Kawhi, we’d be awfully good. We could sign DeMarre Carroll for 2 years/$9 million and be competitive for 50 wins. Seriosuly.

C—Zubac, Trezz, Kabengele
PF—Gay, Carroll
SF—Gallo, Oubre
SG—Sham, Lou
PG—SGA, Bev

Also—Rome, Thornwell, McGruder, Mann/Motley
DLeague—Mann/Motley

This is an extension of the “no star/play deep and tough” team we had last year, with a year of growth and much greater depth. That's a great mix of young and old, with picks coming and players we can trade. Our gap at SF/PF is filled by Rudy Gay and DeMarre Caroll; tough, reliable vets that can score (a lot more than what we had) and stretch the court. We get a young, potentially very good to excellent player in Oubre to be a 25 mpg bench player and maybe more if/when Gallo is traded. We have flexibility. Go big? Zu/Trezz/Gallo/Oubre/SGA. Go small? Trezz/Gay/Oubre/Lou/Bev. Ratchet up the D? Zu/Gay/Carroll/Oubre/SGA. Score in bunches? Trezz/Gallo/Oubre/Sham/Lou.

And I’ll just say it. Al Horford is a really good player. How much *better* is he, right now, than Rudy Gay? He is more a C, and that’s a plus…for some teams. Except we’ve got Trezz and Zubac and just traded up to draft Kabengele. So most of Horford’s value to us is at PF. But even that doesn’t matter that much. Look, Gay is a hard nosed, good character guy. You tell him to play C in small ball rotation, and he’ll go do it. It was a million years ago when he got measured so people forget, but Rudy Gay had/has a 7’3” wingspan. His standing reach is 8’11.25”. That’s about the same as Omari Spellman. So, yeah, that.

But, you say, Rudy Gay has been around for a million years and is old. I mean, old. Except so is Al Horford. Gay came out a year earlier, but is actually a month or so younger than Horford. Gay is/has been more durable. Horford is hardly a wuss, but the fact is that Rudy Gay has played more games per season. Has it taken a toll on him? Look at how both players played last year. Look at the numbers they put up as starters on teams that finished one game apart in overall record.

Code: Select all

            G   MIN   MPG  PPG  RPG  APG  FG%   3P%   FT%  STL  BLK  TS%   REB% 
Gay        69  1842  26.7 13.7  6.8  2.6 .504  .402  .816  0.8  0.5  .583  13.9
Horford    68  1973  29.0 13.6  6.7  4.2 .535  .360  .821  0.9  1.3  .605  12.4


Was Horford better? Really? Can you convincingly argue that? You think the .8 blocks and 50% more assists makes up for the slightly lesser scoring and rebounding? Measurably? Really? Horford is a better defender at the 5—but Rudy Gay is still a good, strong defender. It didn’t seem to matter in the teams’ overall record. I’m not saying this because I don’t like Al Horford. I’m saying this because … why not Rudy Gay and a take a flier on a guy that is at least an average starter and is 23 years old? Who would fix our SF problem and allow us to trade Gallo anytime, anywhere, and have the SF position covered? With $28 million for Horford, we are talking about an amount of money that would allow us to cover—and cover well—our PF position and maybe get an up and coming star.

I don’t think Horford is the best option if we sign Kawhi Leonard. I * definitely* don’t think he’s the best option if we don’t sign Kawhi.

[Quake Griffin]

Follow up. I started writing this a day or two ago, which is why I can post it while in Barcelona having Many Beers. Here's the (far far) better move, IMO:

Rudy Gay - 2 year/$24 million
Kelly Oubre - 3 year/$47 million
Pat Bev - 4 years/$46 million (13-12-11-10)
Zubac – Market hold, up to $7 million. 3 years/$20 million?

With the cap holds for Bev and Zubac, we could sign Kawhi Leonard. We’d be at around $126 million; under the luxury tax. And we’d be great. Hell, even if we didn’t sign Kawhi, we’d be awfully good. We could sign DeMarre Carroll for 2 years/$9 million and be competitive for 50 wins. Seriosuly.

C—Zubac, Trezz, Kabengele
PF—Gay, Carroll
SF—Gallo, Oubre
SG—Sham, Lou
PG—SGA, Bev

Also—Rome, Thornwell, McGruder, Mann/Motley
DLeague—Mann/Motley

This is an extension of the “no star/play deep and tough” team we had last year, with a year of growth and much greater depth. That's a great mix of young and old, with picks coming and players we can trade. Our gap at SF/PF is filled by Rudy Gay and DeMarre Caroll; tough, reliable vets that can score (a lot more than what we had) and stretch the court. We get a young, potentially very good to excellent player in Oubre to be a 25 mpg bench player and maybe more if/when Gallo is traded. We have flexibility. Go big? Zu/Trezz/Gallo/Oubre/SGA. Go small? Trezz/Gay/Oubre/Lou/Bev. Ratchet up the D? Zu/Gay/Carroll/Oubre/SGA. Score in bunches? Trezz/Gallo/Oubre/Sham/Lou.

And I’ll just say it. Al Horford is a really good player. How much *better* is he, right now, than Rudy Gay? He is more a C, and that’s a plus…for some teams. Except we’ve got Trezz and Zubac and just traded up to draft Kabengele. So most of Horford’s value to us is at PF. But even that doesn’t matter that much. Look, Gay is a hard nosed, good character guy. You tell him to play C in small ball rotation, and he’ll go do it. It was a million years ago when he got measured so people forget, but Rudy Gay had/has a 7’3” wingspan. His standing reach is 8’11.25”. That’s about the same as Omari Spellman. So, yeah, that.

But, you say, Rudy Gay has been around for a million years and is old. I mean, old. Except so is Al Horford. Gay came out a year earlier, but is actually a month or so younger than Horford. Gay is/has been more durable. Horford is hardly a wuss, but the fact is that Rudy Gay has played more games per season. Has it taken a toll on him? Look at how both players played last year. Look at the numbers they put up as starters on teams that finished one game apart in overall record.

Code: Select all

            G   MIN   MPG  PPG  RPG  APG  FG%   3P%   FT%  STL  BLK  TS%   REB% 
Gay        69  1842  26.7 13.7  6.8  2.6 .504  .402  .816  0.8  0.5  .583  13.9
Horford    68  1973  29.0 13.6  6.7  4.2 .535  .360  .821  0.9  1.3  .605  12.4


Was Horford better? Really? Can you convincingly argue that? You think the .8 blocks and 50% more assists makes up for the slightly lesser scoring and rebounding? Measurably? Really? Horford is a better defender at the 5—but Rudy Gay is still a good, strong defender. It didn’t seem to matter in the teams’ overall record. I’m not saying this because I don’t like Al Horford. I’m saying this because … why not Rudy Gay and a take a flier on a guy that is at least an average starter and is 23 years old? Who would fix our SF problem and allow us to trade Gallo anytime, anywhere, and have the SF position covered? With $28 million for Horford, we are talking about an amount of money that would allow us to cover—and cover well—our PF position and maybe get an up and coming star.

I don’t think Horford is the best option if we sign Kawhi Leonard. I * definitely* don’t think he’s the best option if we don’t sign Kawhi.

Can that team stop anybody on defense?

Note, I'm not saying that to insult. It may very well be your intention that are slightly better not as good on defense.

[Ranma]

[Ranma]

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[wco81]

Gay is not a 4.

[TrueLAfan]

Gay is not a 4.

Well, Gay wasn’t a 4 when he was drafted—but this is a sign of where the NBA is now (and how Gay has adapted to it). He’s a spread the floor PF now. He’s got the size … he’s an inch shorter than JaMychal Green but has more wingspan and reach so he plays, effectively, at the same size. On the Spurs, LMA, Bertrand, Poetl, and Metu combined for about 5800 minutes. That leaves 2100 PF/C minutes, and the only other roster guys who could have taken them are Gay and Dante Cunningham. B-R says Gay played about 70% of his minutes at the 4. I think it was a little higher but, anyway, he’s more of a 4 now and he’s effective there.

My point wasn’t so much to say “we need to add Gay!” as it was “Horford isn’t the right guy for our team, Kawhi or not, at the price.” One of Horford’s big pluses is that he’s a guy that can stretch the floor at the 5. For us, that means Horford takes minutes from Trezz and Zubac. I don’t see that as desirable. If he’s playing alongside (one of) those guys, Horford is a 4 … and his value is lower at that position.

Can that team stop anybody on defense?

Note, I'm not saying that to insult. It may very well be your intention that are slightly better not as good on defense.

I get the D thing. Again, my point was less “Pursue Oubre and Gay!” and more “Horford’s value to us is a lower than it is for others.” But, while we’re here … Rudy Gay is (still) a plus defender. Kelly Oubre is a plus defender. Al Horford is *better* on D … but, again, he’s better spending more time at the 5 against low post players. Although he can do both, his defensive value is more as a low post rim protector than a perimeter guarding big. But the same is true of Zu and Trezz. There’s more skill redundancy there. Our defensive problems were not at the 5–they were at the 3 and, when Lou was on the court, there. I’m back to Horford being good but not really as good a fit for us as he would be on other teams … and that includes D.

Whether we get Kawhi Leonard or not, we need a 4 (much) more than a 5. And, really, since Gallo effectively spent some time at the 4, we really need quality time/depth at the 3 too. Maybe I’m wrong, but that’s how I see it. And I think viewing things in that way makes the off-season much more interesting to consider. Just my .02.

[QRich3]

Was Horford better? Really? Can you convincingly argue that?

He definitely is, and you definitely can. But you need to stop looking at the boxscore, cause that's the stuff Rudy does well, shooting a lot and getting the rebounds, while Horford does the dirty work that actually helps a team win and doesn't show in the stat sheet. He's been the best player on a contender for the past few years, and while Rudy is becoming a better player than he's been for most of his career, he's still just a cog in a mid table team.

If you want it in stats, you can look at team's on/off numbers and see that the Spurs were 12 points-per-100-possession better when Rudy was sitting than when he was playing in the last postseason. It's a small sample size and his numbers were better in the regular season (+4.5 per 100), but they were still far from Horford's (Celtics were nearly 20 points-per-100 better when he was playing in the postseason, and 4 points-per-100 better in the RS). If you want that adjusted for teammates/opponents, ESPN's RPM has Horford ranked in the top 20 players in the league, impact wise, while Gay just makes the top 50. If you go back for seasons prior, you see that Horford is consistently around that range, while Gay is all over the place and often about league average. If you don't like RPM for whatever reason, other regressed +/- stats say a similar story, for instance PIPM, which has accumulated multi year numbers for +/- impact, has Horford in that same range, just outside the top 20, while Rudy is just positive, about the 80th player in the league in that span. So they might have similar boxscore numbers, but I'd say that's more coincidental than anything. Horford's been a much better player than Gay.

That said, I'm not a fan of signing Al Horford to a 4 year contract at all, Kawhi or not Kawhi. We have Trez to gob up most of the minutes at C, and while he might not be as good a player as Al, he's a lot younger and we should focus on giving him playtime rather than fishing a couple of wins more at a very steep price that's gonna hurt our cap two years from now. Plus, we have Zu's bird rights, and we just drafted a guy that's gonna be ready to play the position in a year or two. Rather spend the cap somewhere else.

[TrueLAfan]

Excellent points. And I do think Al Horford has been a better player than Rudy Gay. I’m less sure about last season, but advanced analysis is also more murky for 2019. There’s no question you’re right about past seasons, though.

But, again, part of Horford’s advantage both recently and overall is less valuable to us. The metrics at B-ball Index (correctly) identify Horford as a big; his perimeter play, especially on D, has continued to drop. He’s made the natural progression of an aging frontcourt player from PF to C. The question is whether we have a need for a player like that. We drafted a PF/C. It seems like resigning Zubac is a (much) higher priority than resigning Green. And our other C, Trezz, is very effective for over half of available court time at C. So it’s less that Horford isn’t as valuable—that was a mistake to say or imply on my part—as it is to say he’s not as valuable for us. (I think we're largely in agreement on that.)

One way of seeing this is to look at the surrounding frontcourt players for Horford. They’re (almost) all PFs; the only other Cs (sort of) on the team that get rotation minutes are Baynes and Thies, and they played only 1700 minutes last year. Horford is playing alongside Marcus Morris and Jayson Tatum and Gordon Hayward. He plays alongside perimeter Fs because he’s effective there, especially on the defensive end. But that’s not what we need, at least in my opinion. Right now, as you note, Zu and Trezz are our Cs. Now, if we want to talk about trading or losing one or both of them, then Horford makes more sense. But as a perimeter PF, especially on D, I think Horford’s value and impact are lessened. His value for us would be reduced by the role we would have him in.

[QRich3]

Yeah definitely, I agree that he needs to be a C, and we have already a lot of nice stuff that, even if none of them are better than current Horford, they will probably be collectively in a year or two.

It's not this FO's MO to give $100M+ contracts to 33 year olds though, so I'm not putting a lot of stock into the rumours.

[mttwlsn16]

I do think Horford, with his skill set, is a player who should age well.

[Galloisdaman]

I think KD pre injury was as good as anyone but how can teams give him a max 4 year deal? He may not play in year 1. He may not be near full speed in year 2. So there is a danger that it could be like paying 70 mill a year for the last 2 years and just hoping he does heal well.

[Galloisdaman]

If you give Horford 4 years 28 mill a year I think the teams fanbase could come to regret it as early as the 2nd (or 3rd) year of the deal. I think he is a very good player but he averaged 13-6 last season. I do not think that calls for 112 mill over 4 years at his age.

[Ranma]

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[Ranma]

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[mttwlsn16]

I'm 99.99% sure Klay is not going anywhere

[wco81]

Klay wants every last dime.

His advanced data numbers aren't that great. But man he's been clutch in some big games and in the Finals, he was lights out.

He's entitled to get everything the market will bear. But it does kind of undermine the chill, stoner vibe that is his brand.

[mkwest]

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