RealGM

Just trying to figure out how any type of Lockout will effect the 11-12 Season.
Is there any hope that this will be resolved quickly & the entire Season , including pre-season will be saved?
Are the Owners & Players already looking to a shorter revised schedule?
Are the Owners and Players just hoping for an agreement & to play any games?

When the NBA cancelled the Summer leagues about a month ago I knew that wasn't a good sign for the upcoming season.
Any input or views?.... Thanks

Right now I think it would take a miracle for the players and owners to come to an agreement by the July 1 deadline. I believe both sides would like to come to an agreement, but each side has something they really want to implement. Right now either side is budging on their stance and that's why there will be a likely lockout. If the players and owners can come to an agreement some time this summer we should have a full season. But the longer a lockout would drag on the less likely it is that there would be a full season.

That's just my take on it.

I think there's better than 50% chance there won't be a season next year. The problem is not the 2 sides, but that the financials of the sport are not great right now so both sides will be fighting tooth and nail to hold on to every dollar they can. Look at the NFL- the business side is relatively healthy (growing revenues with some concerns about stadium financing), yet only now are they finally coming to terms.

The teams basically want to completely redo the entire salary system, the players would like to keep at as close to the status quo as possible. Just maybe there's a chance for them to strike a deal down the middle that minimizes downsides to either side, but only if they are negotiating in good faith. If things start getting acrimonious, then forget it.

The other thing that makes it tough is that there are so many significant issues in the air- hard/soft cap, guaranteed contracts, revenue split, etc. and significant disagreement over any single one could derail an agreement. Whereas in the NFL the biggest issue was simply the revenue split number- once they agreed to that, the rest can be more or less dealt with in order.

However, if the 2 sides have some good leadership negotiating in good faith, then the multitude of issues can actually be a positive, as you can structure a deal with the different aspects in different ways to best achieve what each side wants, while again minimizing downside for the other side.