For Clippers, time is now for a big strike
Posted: Mon Dec 5, 2011 7:38 pm
There are players for whom you blow up everything — even to the point of trading someone like Eric Gordon, who, during two blistering months last season before sustaining a wrist injury (December and January), looked like the third-best shooting guard in the NBA. The 23-year-old Clipper was newly capable of hurting opponents on the pick-and-roll, getting to the foul line in bunches, dishing assists and playing very good defense everywhere but in the post.
But these franchise cornerstones are rare: top-10 talents, still in their mid- to late-20s, who somehow become obtainable. Three such players will be available, to varying degrees in varying ways, over the next seven months: Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Dwight Howard. But perhaps only Howard, young, tall and with no health blemishes, is worth surrendering Gordon.
The time to strike is now, and the Clippers have every kind of asset you could imagine to swing a trade for one of these players. The Clippers possess a big, expiring contract tied to a player who is neither old nor unproductive (Chris Kaman); a few intriguing, young pieces (second-year players Eric Bledsoe and Al-Farouq Aminu); an explosive, 23-year-old center in DeAndre Jordan, a restricted free agent who is already a solid defender and could work as the centerpiece of a sign-and-trade; the Timberwolves’ unprotected first-round pick in a loaded 2012 draft; and Gordon, the wild card whom the Clippers will be reluctant to deal but whose inclusion could make them front-runners in any trade derby.
They also have the league’s most-despised owner (Donald Sterling) and major uncertainty over whether they could persuade any of these stars to sign a long-term extension. In other words: Clippers general manager Neil Olshey has one of the most exciting and most difficult jobs in basketball right now.
There is a misconception out there that Olshey could make his job easier by waiting until the offseason and using the team’s cap room to sign one of these superstars as a free agent. But that cap room is an illusion. Re-signing Jordan and Gordon (whose rookie deal expires after this season) to fair-market deals will cost the Clippers at least $20 million for the 2012-13 season, perhaps more, and if you add in charges linked to empty roster spots and draft picks, their payroll for that season goes well beyond the point at which they could offer a maximum-salary contract in straight-up free agency.
That is where the amnesty clause comes in. As Breene Murphy of ClipperBlog noted, if this free-agency scenario comes into play, it’s a safe bet that the Clippers would use the amnesty clause on point guard Mo Williams next summer. Cutting Williams’ $8.5 million salary for 2012-13 from the books opens up the space to offer a true max deal. Of course, waiting until the summer amounts to a gamble that these three stars won’t have found their desired locations by then.
A Griffin/Jordan/Gordon/Elite Free Agent Point Guard X core is a dream. But such a scenario guarantees that the Clippers will be paying the luxury tax darn near every season, just as the tax gets sharper teeth, including even harsher penalties for repeat payers. Maybe it’s more financially workable to unload one core piece — with Jordan being the more palatable loss — in any transaction that nets Howard, Paul or Williams. This is still Sterling’s team, after all.
How the Clippers play this also turns in part on how comfortable they are going forward with their current core plus the players they draft between now and then. The Western Conference is in flux, with the Lakers, Mavericks and Spurs shifting to new eras, the Blazers grasping at ways to take the next step, the Hornets and Nuggets facing huge unknowns and other franchises in various states of confusion. Only the Thunder and Grizzlies appear set as guaranteed conference title contenders over the next half-decade, and the Clippers may well believe that they will be able to compete with those teams — especially if the new luxury tax and richer contracts for young players (the Derrick Rose rule) force the Thunder to part with one core player.
But Paul, Williams and Howard — especially Howard — are different. They are certain Hall of Famers (barring a catastrophic injury) who contribute at high levels on both ends of the floor. You change plans midstream if such a player becomes available, especially when it looks as if it might be several years before one hits the market again.
This is a huge, franchise-defining moment for the Clippers, the NBA’s punch line for three decades running. I can’t wait to see how they handle it.
For Clippers, time is now for a big strike