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Clippers project as 57 win team, using xRAPM
Posted: Tue Aug 13, 2013 2:39 am
by Lanky Gunner
57 wins. That’s improvement over this year’s 56 wins, but not much. Why don’t the Clippers look better? Well, they lost Eric Bledsoe who, as it turns out, was a +1.61 player in xRAPM and played 1500+ minutes for them last year. Jared Dudley and J.J. Redick had lower xRAPMs than Bledsoe, as did Darren Collison. Additionally, the Clips lost Lamar Odom who was a +.82 xRAPM and replaced his 1600+ minutes with the terrible Byron Mullens and a combination of wings who will likely be worse than Odom was last year, at least by xRAPM. Plus, Jamal Crawford and Matt Barnes project to decline relatively significantly, while Blake Griffin somewhat offsets that with a pretty significant improvement, as he climbs towards his peak years. Subjectively, this prediction seems like it could be a bit low, as the Clips had the MOV of a 59 win team and most NBA heads had them improving this offseason. Plus, Doc Rivers is in a different class as a coach than Vinny Del Negro. But I present the numbers here for you, dear reader, to ponder over.
http://nbacouchside.com/post/5809966637 ... s-clippersPrevious projections:East:
Nets: 60-22
Heat: 59-23
Bulls: 59-23
Pacers: 56-26
West:
OKC: 61-21
I have yet to adjust for SOS and HCA, which is something I plan to do when I wrap everything up.
Re: Clippers project as 57 win team, using xRAPM
Posted: Tue Aug 13, 2013 2:49 am
by Akklaim1
A one-game improvement isn't bad at all. Our 56-win season wasn't that "sexy." Our record was dependent on the 17-game winning streak in December and the 7-game winning streak to wnd the season. We were playing .500 ball between those two streaks. If we can win 57 games without 3 or 4-game losing streaks, that 57-win season would be a lot better than the 56-win season we had last year (even tbough on paper, it says it's only a one-game improvement)
Re: Clippers project as 57 win team, using xRAPM
Posted: Tue Aug 13, 2013 8:35 am
by TheNewEra
That would be a nice win rate
Re: Clippers project as 57 win team, using xRAPM
Posted: Tue Aug 13, 2013 1:44 pm
by mike3
is it official that we've 'lost' Odom?
I know.. that's what I get out of this thread.
Re: Clippers project as 57 win team, using xRAPM
Posted: Wed Aug 14, 2013 12:35 am
by og15
57 games is really good, especially considering how good the West will be. 57 games this season might be harder than 57 games last season.
Re: Clippers project as 57 win team, using xRAPM
Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 3:56 am
by mkwest
57 is definitely fair. I feel that the team improved and certain players should have individual improvements, but games still need to be played. The better you are, the harder it is to improve record-wise. My hope is that 56-57 wins puts you at better than 5th seed this season. It's happened before, but it's still ridiculous. If you win 56 games, you should have a better advantage in the first round of the playoffs than playing a team that is just as good as you if not better.
Re: Clippers project as 57 win team, using xRAPM
Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 4:41 pm
by Quake Griffin
All I can say is...
We won 56 games last year with CP3 missing 11. So 57 isn't that big of a deal to me.
Can u imagine if we got the 2 and played the Rockets/ Lakers? We'd probably still have Vinny...yikes.