New cap, tax and lockout projections for 2014-15 & 2015-16

[mkwest]

The NBA issued new projections for the 2014-15 and 2015-16 salary cap and luxury tax thresholds. The 2014-15 salary cap is now projected to be $63.2 million and the tax level is projected to be $77.0 million. The numbers for 2015-16 are now projected to be $66.5 million and $81.0 million, respectively.

Note that these are only updated projections. The official numbers won’t come out until July, when the league conducts its audit. The cap and tax thresholds are based on revenues for the current season. When they count all the beans in July (that’s what the July Moratorium is for) they also project the revenues for the upcoming year. They then take 44.74% of that projected amount, subtract projected benefits (a little over $200 million) and divide by 30 (the number of teams in the league) to get the cap. The luxury tax uses a similar formula, but is based on 53.51% of projected revenues.

My prediction is that the players will opt-out of the agreement in 2017 because they will feel they gave back in 2011, the system is now fixed, there’s a lot of new money rolling in, the teams are now making money hand over fist, and they will want to regain some of their previous concessions as well as receive their fair share of the new money. Further, the league will be more obliged to give it to them.

So I expect the players to opt-out in 2017, and for the league to impose a lockout on July 1, 2017 (because they can’t do business without an agreement in place), However, negotiations will be quick and smooth (similar to 2005), and there will be a new CBA in place in time for the 2017-18 season to begin on time.

Larry Coon, CBA FAQ

[mkwest]

Next season, the Clippers will have $76,042,553 tied up in 12 players. Add in a little over $900k for the 28th pick's cap hold. Hollins and Turk are the only current players not under contract.

In other words, if the Clippers kept the players that are currently under contract and only added their draft pick, they would be slightly above the tax threshold.

The tax apron would be approximately $81M next season if these figures hold up. We wouldn't have the full MLE to work with, but the taxpayer MLE or "MMLE."

There are team options for Crawford and Green.

Granger, Davis & Collison all have player options. If the three of them were to walk, we would be at $71,512,259.

Davis will still be getting paid by Orlando next season, so there is a possibility he may stay on for cheap. I think Granger will look for the money if it's there, but injuries certainly have not done him any favors. Collison has been huge for us at times this season, but he's underpaid whether you're looking at him as a starter or a key reserve.

There's not much financial flexibility, but the expected increases certainly give us a little more wiggle room. Doc and Gary (if he doesn't find another home) will have to be creative.

[mttwlsn16]

I believe Baby said he will look to get his $$$ I the offseason, so he will be gone

[LACtdom]

I hope Big Baby doesn't walk, we've really struggled to find a quality big to fit into our rotation and he is now starting to look impressive.

[Neddy]

well i think the answer is obvious. we need to find a way to dump Dudley's contract for nothing.

[Quake Griffin]

Who can we go after this summer if we get rid of Dudley?

[Neddy]

we don't, and that's the point. dud isn't even in the playoff rotation and is eating up around 5 million. get rid of his contract for nothing and we can resign baby or go after another and possibly a better fitting big. Matt Barnes is doing fine at 3 and Reggie needs to be groomed while his cheap rookie contract lasts.

[thanumba2clippersfan]

I guess we can see if Doc can work some magic with Dudley's contract. Maybe there's a young team that would want a Vet.

[azncorruptedo17]

I guess we can see if Doc can work some magic with Dudley's contract. Maybe there's a young team that would want a Vet.

back to phoenix he goes i suppose. lol

[mkwest]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/DanWoikeSports/status/458691121686646784[/tweet]

I think a lot of what happens to us this summer hinges on what happens in the playoffs. We get bounced early, then it's easier to walk away. We get far, but not quite all the way, then there's unfinished business. We go all the way and players could easily want to stay and go for another run or could easily look for the money.

Many coaching positions are available. Will Gentry be in demand if things go well?

[Quake Griffin]

I have my eyes on trevor ariza this offseason for one of our SF spots.