So here's what I'm assuming Doc's strategy will be defensively.
Pressure Portland's guards into the big on pick and rolls:This is Doc's go to defense against primary ball handling perimeter guys. It is also more effective when guys are not so good or willing to shoot from mid-range (eg: Harden and Lillard). So far CP has done a good job with it vs Lillard. I'm assuming the Blazers will try to do something to counter its effectiveness, but you can't really run isolation plays all game and expect effective offense from Lillard.
Chris Paul was able to contain Curry enough vs GS in 13-14. Curry averaged 23 ppg / .599 TS% for the series, but it took him 42.4 mpg to get that 23 ppg, which comes out to 19.5 pts/36. He was averaging 23.7 pts/36 during the regular season on .610 TS%, so he wasn't as productive in comparison. On the other end being guarded primarily by Thompson, Paul averaged 17.4 ppg / .555 TS% in 35 mpg which comes up to 17.9 pts/36.
I don't know if Lillard will get to rest on defense in the series like Curry did, Portland hasn't done too much of that, so that should be helpful for the Clippers in terms of making him work just as much as CP on defense.
Many people underrate Redick defensively, but he's quite solid outside of his physical limitations. Here's some Redick vs Harden footage from this season where he's taking away the pick and totally forcing Harden into the big man:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cb_QmFbMeDYHere's some footage with him defending vs isolation from last playoffs:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jv0rKOmBbGELucky for Redick, McCollum is not a FT spammer like Harden. I also think Redick will benefit from decreased minutes in comparison to last post-season where he was playing 39 mpg. He'll play about 30 mpg this post-season which should allow him to be more productive on both ends.
The Clippers could also consider putting a bigger and longer defender like Luc or Johnson on McCollum to help with containing him, but we'll see.
Force Aminu and Harkless to beat you from outside:This is what a lot of teams would do with Matt Barnes. Aminu has improved as a 3PT shooter, he's at 36.1% 3PT on 4.3 3PA, but he's not a knockdown shooter, and you can dare him to beat you from the perimeter. Similarly, Harkless' 3PT shot is a work in progress, and he's only shot 27.9% 3PT on the season, 29% 3PT in the final 11 games that he started. What this means is that the Clippers will play off them on the perimeter to contain Lillard and McCollum getting to the basket and to protect the rim against the roll man.
Protect the defensive glass:So this is an issue for the Clippers and has been an issue for some time. On the season, the Clippers were 28th in DRB%, and we can all remember the Portland game some time back where Plumlee and Davis killed the Clippers on the offensive glass. One sliver of hope is this, the starting lineup of
Chris Paul / JJ Redick / Luc Mbah A Moute / Blake Griffin / DeAndre Jordan only played 18 games / 273 minutes. That lineup grabbed
80.5% of defensive rebounds and 54.2% of total rebounds. The starting lineup for a good amount of the time Blake was out, Paul / Redick / Mbah / Pierce / Jordan grabbed 79.3% DREB and 51.3% TRB. If anyone was not aware, it is the primary bench small ball lineup used through most of the season that was attrocious on the glass, they grabbed 63% DREB and 38% TRB, yea, very, very, very bad.
Offensively the Clippers will generally just do the same thing. The bench just needs to not suck and there should be enough offensive production to win the series. The starting lineup of:
Chris Paul / JJ Redick / Luc Mbah A Moute / Blake Griffin / DeAndre Jordan
111.1 Ortg / 91.7 Drtg / +19.4 NetRtg
We're not exactly sure what level of production Blake is at, but if that lineup is at a similar production level, it's going to be really hard to Portland to keep up with them.
