Vegas projects Clippers to win just 35 games next season without CP3

wassuphomeboy · Post #1 » by **wassuphomeboy** » Thu Jul 13, 2017 7:26 pm

https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/2017-18-nba-win-totals/

I consider this to be a better prognosticator of the upcoming season than most. What's interesting is that despite the loss of CP3 apparently being "good" for the team, the Clippers are only projected to win 34.5 games next year, after this number being 50-55 or so last season.

This number is only higher than that of 5 other teams in the NBA (Brooklyn, Phoenix, Indiana, Chicago, and Sacramento) and actually lower than that of the Lakers at 36.5.

Obviously it is an inexact science, but I was hoping for this number to be a lot higher, as most predictions have the Clippers at least returning to the playoffs.

Wonderful. This rebuild thing might not go quick or easy

Forte IV · Post #2 » by **Forte IV** » Thu Jul 13, 2017 7:55 pm

Where can I go to bet against that? Serious question.

nickhx2 · Post #3 » by **nickhx2** » Thu Jul 13, 2017 7:56 pm

easiest money of my life

Galloisdaman · Post #4 » by **Galloisdaman** » Thu Jul 13, 2017 8:17 pm

I see 41.5 am I reading it wrong?

Galloisdaman · Post #5 » by **Galloisdaman** » Thu Jul 13, 2017 8:20 pm

July 13 update:
There have been some significant changes since the list was originally released just over a week ago. When initially published, there was some Twitter outrage regarding a few of the totals — most notably the Lakers, Clippers, and Magic. As you can see, their totals have changed drastically since opening.

Galloisdaman · Post #6 » by **Galloisdaman** » Thu Jul 13, 2017 8:24 pm

Currently looks like the 6th or 7th seed.

Post #7 » by **thanumba2clippersfan** » Thu Jul 13, 2017 11:32 pm

I feel like we can win around 40 plus games and we should be fighting to get into the playoffs. However it's way too early and no teams' roster is total set.

Post #8 » by **og15** » Fri Jul 14, 2017 2:06 am

Like I said on the general board, any sort of projection like this would like be based on assuming injuries. As others have said though, after other moves the Clippers have made, the projections have gone up, so that's good. Still, we will be a team that could have a wide range when it comes to wins depending on how healthy we are.

Neddy · Post #9 » by **Neddy** » Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:22 am

well, I see it as a win-win.

if we do lose that badly, we will secure a higher pick who can help with greater impact sooner than later. if we prove them wrong, then we are winning.

TucsonClip · Post #10 » by **TucsonClip** » Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:07 am

This is a playoff team. No way we hit the under and make the playoffs. Also, I think we'll be more active at the deadline too this season. I think the playoff race is going to be tight, but we are a playoff team. If Blake goes down though.......

nickhx2 · Post #11 » by **nickhx2** » Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:09 am

i can't picture us not being a playoff team.

poultryfan · Post #12 » by **poultryfan** » Sun Jul 16, 2017 5:58 pm

41.5 wins over/under means the Clippers are a slight dog to make the playoffs according to the bookmakers. It basically means that this team will be fighting for the last two spots in the West which sounds about right to me. The top 5 should already be locked in: Warriors, Rockets, Spurs, Thunder, and Timberwolves. And I think you can definitely count out the Lakers, Mavs, Kings. So that leaves the Clippers, Nuggets, Blazers, Jazz, Suns, Grizzlies, and Pelicans fighting for the last 3 spots. I would probably go ahead and pencil in the Nuggets @ 6th because of Jokic and the addition of Millsap, which means you still have 6 pretty good teams all fighting to get in the playoffs. Remember the Blazers started 1-9 and still made the playoffs last year due to the Nurkic trade. Suns got better. Cousins and Davis started to mesh together towards the end of last season. Jazz definitely got worse but they still have a pretty good team with Gobert, Hood, and now Rubio. Grizzlies are getting old and haven't made any significant additions other than Tyreke Evans but I still wouldn't count them out completely.

I think it will be really close.

Post #13 » by **og15** » Sun Jul 16, 2017 8:42 pm

I need to hear more definite news about the health of Blake Griffin. If he's ready for training camp, and if him and Gallo play, let's even just say 67-70 games each, then I can see a 45-48 win team.

Again, I'm not naive, Blake averaged 54 games over the last three seasons, and Gallo 58 games, and Blake has had lower body and non contact injuries which will give just about anyone cause for concern. He has also had a poor circumstance with the time he missed for his elbow.

Who did the Sun's add? Not really seeing them as a playoff team, but I can't remember what additions they made.

It's definitely going to be a fight. Health will be important for all the teams. If healthy, this season will be a good test for BG. He's actually got a pretty complimentary cast built around him. He's got shooters and the overall shooting around him could be better then ever just because the SF position has upgraded drastically in that regard while still maintaining good shooting at the 1/2. That one weak link in shooting that the Clippers have had ends up making a decent difference in spacing and flow. He still has the big to protect the rim behind him, he's got a guy that's projected to be a top level playmaker. The Clippers project to have the best bench group they have had since the dominant defense bench of 12-13.

There's promise, so we'll see...

Don Tommy · Post #14 » by **Don Tommy** » Mon Jul 17, 2017 2:50 am

Here's the thing about Vegas odds though. They don't predict anything. Their whole goal is to get 50% of the people to bet one side of the number and the other 50% to bet the opposite, that way the losers pay the winners and they get the vig. If they get 70% of the public on one side of a bet then they are now risking their money. That's why the line changes the way it does.

poultryfan · Post #15 » by **poultryfan** » Mon Jul 17, 2017 7:01 pm

It's true that bookmakers create and adjust their lines/odds with the goal of balancing their action on both sides, but that also means that their numbers generally reflect what the current market (ie. other sports fans/bettors) think is going to happen in the future. It's why the over/under went from 35 wins to 41.5 wins following the addition of Gallinari and Tedosic.

Regarding the Suns, to my knowledge their only significant addition is Josh Jackson but they are a young team with a pretty talented core that's been together for 2+ seasons. I think they will continue to improve ala the Jazz the last few seasons. In any case I wouldn't put them in the same category as the bottom 3 West teams.

nickhx2 · Post #16 » by **nickhx2** » Mon Jul 17, 2017 7:23 pm

their core is immensely talented, but we've seen that with our own eyes with our own teams. talent needs to be shaped through process before it's strong enough to win. i am excited to see how good they can get though.

wassuphomeboy · Post #17 » by **wassuphomeboy** » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:18 am

I'm probably the last person you want to hear it from, but you guys were right about this one.

Maybe not for the last time, either

Post #18 » by **og15** » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:38 am

Even the oddsmakers quickly changed their tune after the Clippers made further additions, but the team has still outperformed, because the injuries DID happen, and Blake even got traded, and they have beat the projection.

nickhx2 · Post #19 » by **nickhx2** » Wed Mar 14, 2018 6:26 am

nickhx2 wrote:easiest money of my life

MartinToVaught · Post #20 » by **MartinToVaught** » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:31 pm

wassuphomeboy wrote:I'm probably the last person you want to hear it from, but you guys were right about this one.

Maybe not for the last time, either

Maybe someday you'll admit that CP3 is highly overrated and him leaving wasn't the end of the world. We aren't contenders right now, but we weren't going to be contenders with CP3 making the supermax either, and at least we have viable paths to contention in the near future now.