Which guards should the Clippers keep?

[og15]

Okay, so as we all know, there is quite the glut at the guard positions. Right now here are the guards on the Clippers as well as Clippers free agent guards:

Rookies and Signed Players:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - 6'6, 20 years old, Rookie
Jerome Robinson - 6'5, 21 years old, Rookie

Jawun Evans - 5'10, 22 years old, $1.4M (1 year + TO)
Sindarius Thornwell - 6'5, 23 years old, $1.4M (2 years)
Austin Rivers - 6'4, 26 years old, $12.7M (1 year)
CJ Williams - 6'5, 28 years old, $1.4M (1 year)
Patrick Beverley - 6'1, 30 years old, $5.0M (1 year)
Lou Williams - 6'1, 31 years old, $8.0M (2 years + Non Guaranteed)
Milos Teodosic 6'5, 31 years old, $6.3M (1 year)


Free Agents:
Avery Bradley - 6'2, 27 years old, FA
Tyrone Wallace - 6'5, 24 years old, FA

There are 9 guards on the team, you can argue that CJ Williams can play SF, though he isn't primarily a SF.

Taking into account age, contract, best trade value, size, fit, etc, how many of those guys should the team keep and who should be kept?

Avery Bradley is obviously gone, there's no logic in keeping him so good luck to him and whatever team is able to pick him up. The one year contract guys (not Williams who is a minimum) become interesting because if the team is not planning on retaining them moving forward, then they become the guys that would make sense to trade. So that would be Patrick Beverley and Austin Rivers.

The obvious ones that will be here are the two rookies barring any sort of deal with a star returning. Thornwell also seems unlikely to be moved just for the sake of clearing the logjam, and he can also play some SF.

Trade value wise, Austin with his $12 million expiring becomes one of the better pieces there as he makes enough money to bring back a decent contract, but the receiving team won't be locking into any long term contract. Lou Williams isn't bad trade value wise, but his longer contract might dissuade some teams, but also he was just given an extension.

It would certainly be good to keep a veteran guard or two around to help the young guys. So that's between Rivers, Beverley and Williams. Austin and Lou aren't necessarily similar, but they fill sort of similar roles in terms of being scorers. Lou is far superior in that scorer role, but also fairly older, but Austin is making more, is expiring and will be looking for a decent payday that the Clippers likely don't want to give since they just drafted two guards for their future. Beverley fills a slightly different role than them which makes him more reasonable to keep and then choosing between the other two. Of course none of them are likely future building blocks for the team, but they can help with the transition to the next stage.

Players to keep:
PG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander / Milos Teodosic / Patrick Beverley
SG: Jerome Robinson / Lou Williams / Sindarius Thornwell

Players to trade:
Austin Rivers

Players that can be traded if needed:
Jawun Evans
CJ Williams

Players that would be nice to keep but hard to see where they fit:
Ty Wallace

I don't think the team should hold more than 6 guards, so one of Evans or Williams will remain. Austin is see as the best to trade because he has the best trade value, he should only be kept if you see him as part of the future because otherwise it doesn't make much sense to keep him just to lose him in free agency for nothing.

[Roscoe Sheed]

Teodosic is still technically under contract. There is a separate thread about his situation. The consensus seems to be that he is more of a benefit than a detriment to the team but maybe it is best to move on considering the need to play the younger guards

[Quake Griffin]

Looks like Milos just opted in.

[MartinToVaught]

Beverley, Milos, Lou, and Wallace. Still more guards than we really need, but Lou would probably get us a decent return at the trade deadline if we're not in playoff position.

[Dynamix]

Players to keep:
PG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander / Patrick Beverley
SG: Jerome Robinson / Lou Williams / Sindarius Thornwell

Players to trade:
Austin Rivers

Players that can be traded if needed:
Jawun Evans
CJ Williams

Players that would be nice to keep but hard to see where they fit:
Ty Wallace

That looks good to me. I still think there's something special about Ty, so I really wish we could keep him around (for the right price) as the third string PG. Guys will inevitably go down and he'll get a shot to work his way up the rotation. Jawun will struggle to get any minutes, so we should definitely try to move him. CJ could be useful as a roster filler.

Austin absolutely needs to go. While I think he's an ok player, I don't want him to be part of our future averaging 30+ minutes, and we can't expect to develop the rookies with him around. So let's put on our best snake oil salesman suit and see if we can get something for him.

I'm torn on Milos. Love the guy, but his age and injury issues don't inspire much confidence. I hope we don't just waive him and manage to trade him to a playoff contender, he stays healthy, then sticks around the league for a few more years. It would be pretty cool if he somehow ended up on the Spurs.

[og15]

Edited to add Milos, and those players to keep isn't a depth chart. I thought he was opting out, him opting in makes it even more complicated.

Now there are four options in terms of veteran guards to chose from (Rivers, Williams, Beverley, Teodosic), and I would say that in order to keep everyone happy and have enough minutes for the rookies, you can't have more than two of them remaining.

[Neddy]

MIlos opted in. Quake beat me to it.

[Neddy]

wow now the log jam in guard rotation is gonna be fierce.

Austin-Shai-Lou-MIlos-Beverly-Jerome-Sindarius-Evans

that's 8 guards before the 2 way deal dudes like CJ and Ty. can't have 10 guards thats for sure. cut the last 3, and we still have 4-5 guys who are not only guards but need the ball in their hands before we throw back in guys like Sin and Jerome who are strictly 2 guards.

this is gonna get messy in a hurry.

[Forte IV]

Jawun and Sindarius having been working hard this summer. Would hate to see them go, but I do like the size we have at the guard positions now. I'm as big of a Austin Rivers stan as anyone, and the fact he's working out with the trainer that turned Oladipo into what he is now makes me hesitant to trade him if we aren't getting at least a first back. I don't know. I'm glad I don't have to make this decision, because I honestly see the benefit of keeping every single one of these guys. But I know a few will have to go.

[Neddy]

Juwan and Sindarius are Jerry West picks, I think they'll be given another year to prove themselves, and they don't cost much. I think they stay.

Austin should be traded, but will he? guess not having his father as the team president gives me some hope. as OG said, he is an expiring, still young-ish, coming off a good year. Austin's ceiling I think has been met. he won't develop into anything more than he already is.

Lou is definitely a good trade piece, I don't think his extra year would be so detrimental to any contender when his deal is 7 mil per season.

Pat Beverly and Milos were exciting to have but with injuries to both, it never got off the ground. I would love to see Pat regain his form and do some crazy things with his old Euro backcourt partner. but I am guessing the front office will not guarantee Milo's contract. does anyone know what the team is on the hook for then?

looks like the new era of LA Clipper basketball starts now. I am guessing by the end of the season, our starters should be something like Shai - Jerome - Tobias - Gallo - and who knows. maybe Gallo is also getting shipped out. in fact the entire front court is uncertain. hopefully Shai and Jerome are bigger versions of Thomas-Dumars combo or Hawkins & Dawkins back in the day.

[og15]

Jawun and Sindarius having been working hard this summer. Would hate to see them go, but I do like the size we have at the guard positions now. I'm as big of a Austin Rivers stan as anyone, and the fact he's working out with the trainer that turned Oladipo into what he is now makes me hesitant to trade him if we aren't getting at least a first back. I don't know. I'm glad I don't have to make this decision, because I honestly see the benefit of keeping every single one of these guys. But I know a few will have to go.

If there's some anticipation of Austin making a big jump as a player there's an argument for keeping him and at least giving about a month or two to evaluate, but either way the team can't start the season with 9 guards. First, two positions will be taking up 60% of the roster spots, second, it will leave you without depth at the 3/4/5 (more so 4 and 5 as the 3 some guys can shift over), and third because there are a lot of guards there who actually can't just be getting multiple DNP-CD's. Let's exclude the young guys and rookies for a second, and you have 96 minutes for:

Austin Rivers
Milos Teodosic
Lou Williams
Patrick Beverley

If you shared it equally, that's 24 mpg for each with no minutes left over. I'd assume you want to get Shai about 18-20 mpg at the minimum, and Jerome is supposed to be NBA ready, and you might be thinking of getting him at least about 15-16 mpg. At the low end of that, those two would take 33 of the 96 minutes leaving you with 63 mpg for the 4 veterans who for the sake of chemistry and team unity, you're not going to want to be giving any of them DNP-CD's, but you also aren't going to make them happy with 15 mpg.

I like keeping Beverley because I think he's the type of player that can help your rookies fast track because he will go at them in training camp and practice and the will be able to become more aware of and work on some of their offense and ball handling, etc weaknesses when he's harassing them, so I like that, even if there's no plan to keep him beyond this year, I think the daily experience for them is more valuable than whatever could be had from trading him.

[Forte IV]

I think if DJ leaves I'd be willing to give Orlando a call and see if they'd want Milos and Austin for Vucevic and Simmons. Takes care of our guard problem, gets Simmons as a back up SF, and Vucevic as our center. Plus still opens us up for tons of CAP room next summer.

[MartinToVaught]

Austin making a "big jump" is wishful thinking, IMO. It's been six seasons and Austin is still a net-negative player in this league. And you can't say the Clippers haven't given him a fair chance to succeed.

Austin needs to be traded ASAP for two reasons:

- We just drafted two guards, and Doc can't be trusted to give them the playing time they need to develop instead of giving Austin tons of minutes.

- So much of this front office's plan is based around free agency in 2019 and beyond. As much as people may not like to admit it, the perception of nepotism with Doc and Austin is still a thing. And with the reports of teammates being frustrated by it during the Lob City era, I can't imagine it would help our chances of signing any major free agents if we still have Doc and Austin.

[statsman42]

There's little chance the new regime will retain Austin beyond his current contract (so next summer). But I don't know how we can trade him, because who wants an overpaid player whose rep is that he's only getting burn because of his dad? I can see it only if someone's looking for an expiring contract - but then, he represents that to us, too. The last thing we want is for Austin to hurt us yet again by making us eat more salary into 2020 and beyond.

[Forte IV]

I saw a fake trade of Gallo/Austin/something else I forgot for Melo/Abrines (although I'd rather have Ferguson). Then we buy out Melo. Effectively opens up another 20 mil in cap room next year while also creating a new trade exception since our Chris Paul one is set to expire.

[Neddy]

I'm gonna carefully say this...

if there is a credible source out there where we can read up on some Austin's improvements, I am all for it. he is still young enough to make that leap. remember, MtV, this ain't our high school days NBA drafts, guys like David Robinson who completes not only all 4 years of academy but to serve the military before joining NBA in mid 20's, those days are long gone, brother. this is the league where 18, 19 year olds get drafted mostly, as lottery picks. we had a few high school kids make the NBA like Kobe, Moses, and KG. they made huge waves because they were so young. well, nowadays everyone is just about their age or 12 months older. being a 6 year vet doesn't mean as much as when Ken Norman was drafted, you know?

[og15]

There's little chance the new regime will retain Austin beyond his current contract (so next summer). But I don't know how we can trade him, because who wants an overpaid player whose rep is that he's only getting burn because of his dad? I can see it only if someone's looking for an expiring contract - but then, he represents that to us, too. The last thing we want is for Austin to hurt us yet again by making us eat more salary into 2020 and beyond.

I don't think Austin is viewed as negatively as you portrayed him. He's making slightly above the MLE amount next season, that's a fine contract for his skills. He can shoot the three, is one of the league's most efficient isolation scorers, and he's got decent length and athleticism for a combo guard. There are a lot of teams that can find a useful role for him. Part of the feeling about him as a Clipper, is that he has had a larger role than he might have elsewhere, but a more confined role can also help him be more efficient and put more into defense like his earlier days as a Clipper. He's really not terrible at all, probably an MLE contract type player for a decent amount of teams needing a guard.

[MartinToVaught]

I'm gonna carefully say this...

if there is a credible source out there where we can read up on some Austin's improvements, I am all for it. he is still young enough to make that leap. remember, MtV, this ain't our high school days NBA drafts, guys like David Robinson who completes not only all 4 years of academy but to serve the military before joining NBA in mid 20's, those days are long gone, brother. this is the league where 18, 19 year olds get drafted mostly, as lottery picks. we had a few high school kids make the NBA like Kobe, Moses, and KG. they made huge waves because they were so young. well, nowadays everyone is just about their age or 12 months older. being a 6 year vet doesn't mean as much as when Ken Norman was drafted, you know?

Oh, I agree that players entering the league earlier changes the equation. But I still think it's problematic that he's six years into his career and still making his teams worse when he's on the court.

I'm not expecting superstardom or anything, but outside of his three-point shooting in the last year or two, I haven't seen much in the way of real improvement. He's still inefficient overall, still doesn't contribute much beyond scoring, and is still a terrible defender.

I think a big problem is that there's no real expectations for him to improve any aspect of his game. He's always going to get big minutes no matter what, and Doc can't admit that he has any flaws in his game anyway. Case in point: Doc's insistence that Austin is a good defender when both the metrics and the eye test show that he isn't.

Thing is, I don't see how any of this changes as long as we have both Doc and Austin. We need to move on from at least one of them, and since we already extended Doc, that means it's time to trade Austin.

[TheNewEra]

Beverly/SGA
Robinson/Williams/Thornwell

Everyone else can go in trades.

[ejftw]

Without reading this thread.

Absolute Keeps: Gilgeous-Alexander, Pat Beverly, Jerome Robinson, Lou Williams

Would prefer to keep: Sindarius Thornwell, Tyrone Wallace

Impartial: Austin Rivers, Avery Bradley, Jawun Evans, CJ Williams

Can we S&T Bradley for a TPE & 31-45 Prot 2nd?