POLL: Tobias Harris Turns Down $80 Million | What's the Right Price?

[Ranma]

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[Quake Griffin]

Unbothered by this information.

I don't even get the point of offering Tobias this contract. He was obviously going to turn it down and it was obviously going to hit twitter/ the rumor mill.

Better question:

Is Tobias worth the full 5/188?

[Ranma]

Is Tobias worth the full 5/188?

I just added a poll that will run for a full year where the vote can change to maybe see how forum opinion will evolve from now to next summer's free agency. In my opinion, I don't think he's close to being worth a full max contract nor do I anticipate that his play will dictate such an offer, but it only takes one team desperate enough to offer that to him. Will there be such a team?

[esqtvd]

nice player

maybe too nice

[og15]

Unbothered by this information.

I don't even get the point of offering Tobias this contract. He was obviously going to turn it down and it was obviously going to hit twitter/ the rumor mill.

Better question:

Is Tobias worth the full 5/188?

Nope, not at all, but he can certainly get himself a bit more than 4 years / $80 million on the market

[Revived]

I honestly don't know if Harris is a player worth $20M/yr even. He's a player that's very similar to a guy like TJ Warren (nearly all their advanced metrics are the same career wise) but with a slightly better 3pt shot. Both are average or worse defenders but good not great offensive weapons. PER is nearly identical career wise as well.

Warren makes like $14M/yr so I honestly think Harris should be getting a deal in that neighborhood, not much more.

[Quake Griffin]

Unbothered by this information.

I don't even get the point of offering Tobias this contract. He was obviously going to turn it down and it was obviously going to hit twitter/ the rumor mill.

Better question:

Is Tobias worth the full 5/188?

Nope, not at all, but he can certainly get himself a bit more than 4 years / $80 million on the market

That's obvious but I fear he could end up like Joe Johnson in 2010....getting a max he doesn't deserve.

There's more money now so maybe there wont be a team to compete and push his price up to 5/188.....but it's a concern of mine.

[mkwest]

His cap hold for next season is $22.2M, which would leave us with approx. $32M in cap space.

[og15]

Unbothered by this information.

I don't even get the point of offering Tobias this contract. He was obviously going to turn it down and it was obviously going to hit twitter/ the rumor mill.

Better question:

Is Tobias worth the full 5/188?

Nope, not at all, but he can certainly get himself a bit more than 4 years / $80 million on the market

That's obvious but I fear he could end up like Joe Johnson in 2010....getting a max he doesn't deserve.

There's more money now so maybe there wont be a team to compete and push his price up to 5/188.....but it's a concern of mine.

As long as the Clippers aren't the ones giving that contract

[TrueLAfan]

I honestly don't know if Harris is a player worth $20M/yr even. He's a player that's very similar to a guy like TJ Warren (nearly all their advanced metrics are the same career wise) but with a slightly better 3pt shot. Both are average or worse defenders but good not great offensive weapons. PER is nearly identical career wise as well.

Warren makes like $14M/yr so I honestly think Harris should be getting a deal in that neighborhood, not much more.

Not sure this is true. Almost all the smaller metrics/factors are in Tobias’ favor. Tobias plays markedly more—Warren has played 2100-2200 minutes the last two seasons. Tobias has averaged over 2500 over the last four seasons. Tobias is a slightly better rebounder. His assist percentage is about 50% higher. His turnover percentage is higher than Warren’s too—but not as much, so his A/TO ratio is better. Tobias has much more range and is a legitimate three point threat—much more than “a little better,” and that’s much more significant for a SF/PF. He can spread the court more (where his better passing helps). About the only real advantage Warren has is being younger. I’d say the time on court, the passing and (especially) makes Tobias markedly more valuable.

Unbothered by this information.

I don't even get the point of offering Tobias this contract. He was obviously going to turn it down and it was obviously going to hit twitter/ the rumor mill.

Better question:

Is Tobias worth the full 5/188?

Nope, not at all, but he can certainly get himself a bit more than 4 years / $80 million on the market

I agree…he’s valuable, but not that valuable. In another thread, I wrote that is we offered 4 years/$85 million., Tobias would be likely to take it (or, at least, consider it seriously). I actually think it’s a good thing that Tobias turned down the extension. He feels he’s worth more than that—and, you know, maybe is. If he plays a little better D and scores 2 or 3 more ppg … look, he starts moving into $23-25 million a year territory. Right now, I really think here’s firmly in the $19-23 million a year range.

The Joe Johnson comment is interesting--that's where I think Tobias would be that small type of improvement. When Johnson got his contract, two things were going on. 1) The TV contracts were booming, so there was a sense that there was always going to be more money. 2) There was less emphasis on players and contract analysis when offering deals. I personally always thought Joe Johnson was terrific, but he’s terrific in the same way—and at the same level--I think Bradley Beal or maybe DeMar DeRozan is terrific. That’s an almost but not quite max player. When money seemed to come from everywhere, it was like buying land after gold was found; what you offered for a property wasn’t as important. You could always sell for more. I don’t think that’s the thinking any more and, since almost every team has been bit in some way and at some time by that thinking (*cough*AustinRivers!*cough*), I really think teams are more likely to offer Steven Adams/Beal/DeMar type contracts to players like that.

This relates to my thought that Tobias would be an ideal #3/borderline #2 guy on a championship level team. Say you had Tobias and a guy like Joe Johnson was, or Beal or DeRozan is … and you got Anthony Davis or Joel Embiid (or Ayton, if he develops the way he should). The difference between having three max deals and paying $30 million for your alpha dog, and $45-47 million for those other two players is considerable. Keeping $10-15 million available for your roster to sign people or beef up a rookie contract every couple of years is huge. I think teams recognize that more now.

[Wammy Giveaway]

Here's my problem with money in general:

"The more money you make, the more problems you get" - Christopher Wallace, The Notorious B.I.G.

Give a player too much money, what are the odds the player underperforms? I've seen it a lot: the player gets a bloated contract just because the team missed out on a franchise star player; they need somebody to market. So they just promote one of their glue guys to a contract way beyond his value, anything to help give the team some relevancy, but they're clearly fooling themselves. The player will surely fail to meet the expectations of the contract, his stats will go under his career averages, and now they have an Andris Biedrins: forced to keep the player for the next few seasons until he becomes an expiring contract good enough to trade, or buyout the contract completely and take a cap hit. Giving a max contract to a lesser player just so the team doesn't feel left out: bad business practice. I wonder if the Sterling-era Clippers practiced the same thing too, even with their preference of letting the other 29 teams price their restricted free agents for him instead of offering a contract themselves (since they loved lowballing given Sterling's penny pinching habits).

In my view, Tobias is just a role starter. His career stats per season don't scream All-Star. He doesn't possess that NBA personality - somebody who can fill up the highlight reels with lob-jams, posters, crafty carnival-like basketball plays, or defends with a pesky reckless attitude as if his life depended on it like a Ron Artest. He's a glue guy who compliments the starting lineup's style of play, nothing more than a spot to fill. If he were in the Golden State Warriors, Harris would be the Zaza Pachulia to the Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Kevin Durant Fantastic 4: all superstars with All Star appearances, MVP and Finals MVP accolades, versus a hard-working player with a 6.9 PTS-5.9 REB-1.3 AST-0.7 STL-0.4 BLK career average that is close in line with bench players.

[Forte IV]

Unbothered by this information.

I don't even get the point of offering Tobias this contract. He was obviously going to turn it down and it was obviously going to hit twitter/ the rumor mill.

Better question:

Is Tobias worth the full 5/188?

It's a good gesture move. This was the max they could offer in an extension. Shows that they want him.

[NoZoLakers]

4/90-100.....if clipps give him max might as well book yourself a 1way tkt on the treadmill train

[esqtvd]

4/90-100.....if clipps give him max might as well book yourself a 1way tkt on the treadmill train

let's score 20 ppg first, Tobie

upping productivity while keeping the same %ages isn't so easy

[Akklaim1]

Good. Because he needs to prove he can score 20 ppg.

[Quake Griffin]

Unbothered by this information.

I don't even get the point of offering Tobias this contract. He was obviously going to turn it down and it was obviously going to hit twitter/ the rumor mill.

Better question:

Is Tobias worth the full 5/188?

It's a good gesture move. This was the max they could offer in an extension. Shows that they want him.

Good looks. I was looking for this type of response to this post.

Makes more sense now.

[mkwest]

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[Ranma]

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Broderick Turner, Los Angeles Times (7/24/18)

“I think that as a player you never know, but just to get that offer was an amazing feeling,” Harris said. “For me, I’m a kid who puts everything into the game and to have an organization come to me with that offer and to be able to present that was a really big accomplishment. It showed that the team valued me as a player.”

“I play the game for the love of basketball, for the love to compete and to get better, and that’s where that comes from. But I’m a player who has been loyal to whatever team I’ve been a part of.

This summer was about “fine-tuning” every aspect of his game with Clippers assistant coach Sam Cassell in New York.

Cassell had Harris view film on how certain players performed in certain situations.

They watched how Paul Pierce and Allan Houston worked in the mid-post. Harris, on his own after Cassell departed, studied how Kobe Bryant and Michael Jordan used their footwork to their advantage, moved in the post and consistently hit fade-away jumpers.

Clippers' Tobias Harris Learns His Worth with Two Big Phone Calls Over the Summer

[Captain Ballmer]

I voted 4 year/100 MD as i expect him to perform like All-star level this season but not selected due to western conference player pool. 20+ point with 46+ FG%, 40+ 3pt% on 6' 9 size should get annually 25md on the market easily.

[mkwest]

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