POLL: Tobias Harris Turns Down $80 Million | What's the Right Price?

[Ranma]

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[LAClippersFilm]

Tobias is in a tricky spot for himself, and for the Clippers.

If he stays healthy, he SHOULD be a 100M player in the 19' summer. That in theory, would make him ideal to flip at some point this season, especially if you're confident getting 1 to 2 max guys next summer and the Clippers are out of the playoff race by the deadline.

At the same time however, there will be over 200 Free Agents next summer, and that could alter what he gets on the open market as well, bringing his price down a bit.

[QRich3]

I actually think he's gonna be one of the top FA on the market, cause I think Durant, Thompson, Irving, Kemba, all re-sign pretty quickly, as Butler likely will with whoever he's traded to. Then you have maybe Kawhi and a bunch of guys like Tobi and Middleton who could really be willing to change teams. So he shouldn't have a problem securing way too big a contract for whoever pays him. Hopefully not us.

[simon24]

I actually think he's gonna be one of the top FA on the market, cause I think Durant, Thompson, Irving, Kemba, all re-sign pretty quickly, as Butler likely will with whoever he's traded to. Then you have maybe Kawhi and a bunch of guys like Tobi and Middleton who could really be willing to change teams. So he shouldn't have a problem securing way too big a contract for whoever pays him. Hopefully not us.

Yeah I definitely can see him being a Knick. Knicks strike out on KD, Jimmy, Kyrie and Perry signs a guy he knows and happens to be from NY (Harris).

[esqtvd]

I actually think he's gonna be one of the top FA on the market, cause I think Durant, Thompson, Irving, Kemba, all re-sign pretty quickly, as Butler likely will with whoever he's traded to. Then you have maybe Kawhi and a bunch of guys like Tobi and Middleton who could really be willing to change teams. So he shouldn't have a problem securing way too big a contract for whoever pays him. Hopefully not us.

Yeah I definitely can see him being a Knick. Knicks strike out on KD, Jimmy, Kyrie and Perry signs a guy he knows and happens to be from NY (Harris).

Although I'm not stoked about paying him more than $30M/yr, I'm not really happy about financial considerations douchebagging our best player.

Maybe we can give this sh*t a rest for the moment and look forward to the new season maybe guys?

Tobias is cool.

[Ranma]

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[madmaxmedia]

Great article. I do think the way the article is set up might get people that don’t think too deeply about it to think the article is stating Harris is not valuable. He is—the strengths the article notes are considerable, and offset his flaws. But this is a reminder that Tobias Harris is, IMO, a #2 player on a good (45-55 win team) and a #3 player (or co-#2 player) on a great team. Expecting him—and more importantly paying him—to be an alpha guy on a championship contending team would be a big mistake.

IMO, there are a bunch number of players in the NBA with value similar to Tobias—guys like Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Khris Middleton, C. J. MCollum and Will Barton come to mind. All of those are very good to great players. But none of them are guys you build a team around. They’re important pieces. That’s a big distinction. You pay guys you can build around max money. You pay guys that are level or a level and a half below that less. That’s what I’m talking about here—and that’s what this article says. When it concludes:

it's not saying Harris isn’t a really good player. It’s saying he is what he is—a co #2 option level guy for a championship caliber team. Asking him to do more—making him a go-to option and alpha guy—is not going to go well. And he certainly shouldn’t be paid like that. I stick with what I’ve said from the start—Tobias is a really good to great player that could be an important piece of a great team. To me, that’s a 5 year/$110-$120 million player. Get two guys at that level/price and a real alpha guy at a max deal, and you’re committing $75-80 million a year to a terrific big three. We need to recognize what Tobias is and is worth while not overpaying.

I agree with everything you say, just wanted to discuss the bolded part. The max salary throws ROI on salary out of whack (as does the rookie scale but that's not relevant here.) Those cornerstone guys are actually worth more (and in certain special cases much more) than the max salary, which I know you understand. So where does that place the value of those somewhat less than cornerstone/AAA players? I think the market value is right around a max salary (but not supermax), the problem is if you are getting roughly 1:1 or 100% ROI on a couple of those guys, you're not going to beat the likes of a GSW who have multiple players giving than far greater than market value return on their contracts. GSW and Cleveland are the only teams to win titles lately, and both have huge leverage over other teams in player value:payroll (Cleveland has a couple of bad contracts but Lebron single-handedly overcomes them.) The problem facing the majority of NBA teams is you have to get lucky/fortunate to actually land one of those cornerstone players, so what do you do then?

I think after the season ends, Tobias is going to get a bigger offer than what we would like to pay him. So the question is, do we A) wait and hope to get lucky and keep him at reasonable value, B) re-sign him at higher-than-optimal contract, C) trade him before year-end, or D) end up letting him walk? If somehow the Clippers believed they can draw 2 max FA's next offseason, then I guess trading Tobias now when his value is presumably high (to net another 1st round pick) might be best option value-wise.

I don't think we're going to trade him anytime soon though. I think we're gonna see at least how the first part of the season plays out- are we competitive with the guys we have now? If so, then the FO might decide the best course will be to re-sign Tobias and then seek out a max FA to pair with him, as well as SGA and our other guys of course.

My other thought about this is, does it really matter if we sign him to a contract at $20M/year or say $25M/year? Either way it takes up one of our potential max slots, most likely the main impact will be how much luxury tax Ballmer will be paying out of his pocket. As long as we stay out of repeater tax I don't think that will be an issue. He should also be still in his prime after a 4 or 5 year contract. He might not have too much upside left, but looking at his trajectory he might still continue to incrementally get better for another couple of years.

Depending on how the team plays this season, I guess I'm talking myself into thinking a 5/~$125M or something like that might be acceptable for us. But I really need to watch this team and specifically him more this season, I didn't watch enough games last year after we traded for him to be honest. That Clutchpoints article also gives me pause, although I think he can improve on some of those weak spots.

[Ranma]

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[QRich3]

My other thought about this is, does it really matter if we sign him to a contract at $20M/year or say $25M/year? Either way it takes up one of our potential max slots, most likely the main impact will be how much luxury tax Ballmer will be paying out of his pocket. As long as we stay out of repeater tax I don't think that will be an issue. He should also be still in his prime after a 4 or 5 year contract. He might not have too much upside left, but looking at his trajectory he might still continue to incrementally get better for another couple of years.

Depending on how the team plays this season, I guess I'm talking myself into thinking a 5/~$125M or something like that might be acceptable for us. But I really need to watch this team and specifically him more this season, I didn't watch enough games last year after we traded for him to be honest. That Clutchpoints article also gives me pause, although I think he can improve on some of those weak spots.

That would be a disaster imo. $5M a year always matter, even if you're gonna stay over the cap, it matters to get to the apron, which will dictate if you can use the full MLE or not, the BAE, etc. Even if you're gonna stay over the luxury tax line, it matters in how much you pay the repeater tax and how many years it's gonna be sustainable. More than anything, in our case, we don't have a core yet. We need liquidity, we need to have a roster full of players with good trade value in case a great opportunity arises. Say a year down the line Anthony Davis gets put on the market and the Pelicans are somewhat attracted by what we can offer. Tobias on a $17M/year contract is gonna be appealing for them, Tobias on a $25M/year deal kills the deal.

Also, for me the problem with Tobias is not just that he's a 2nd best player or a 3rd best player on a good team. The problem is he has weaknesses that can be attacked if you find yourself playing for a title. His defense is not good and I can't see him improving it significantly, and in a hypothetical conference final with a team like the Warriors or the Rockets, he'd get put in the spot in a way their players can't be. He's a nice player, but he's not the kind of player I'd want taking 25% of my cap if I'm a team trying to win a championship.

[TrueLAfan]

Yes and No. A 5 year/$125 million contract starts at 21.5 million. Anthony Davis is a supermax player; if the cap is $109 million next year, he’s eligible for a contract that starts at over $38 million. The difference between his contract and Harris’s contract next year would be close to $17 million. That’s a lot. I agree that 25% of the cap is too much--but that would be a deal starting at over $27 million.

This is why I think the “level below” players are actually worth the $20-$25 million they get paid. Let’s say that next season we were able to acquire Bradley Beal. (This is a hypothetical, obviously.) Beal will make $25 million in 2019/20; he and Harris combined would make $46 million. Combining a supermax player with them would bring that to about $84.5 million. I personally think that Tobias Harris, Bradley Beal, and Anthony Davis would be a terrific foundation for a championship team; you add SGA and Lou Williams and defensive SF at around $7-9 million a year, and you’re about $15 million under the cap with a pretty amazing 7 man rotation. (Replace those three with Kawhi Leonard, Myles Turner and Khris Middleton—same thing.) I think more teams are going to go that route; take 75-80% of your salary cap and decide how to divvy it up. Two supermax player is great, but highly unlikely. (The Warriors and Rockets are rare and fortunate.) what about a supermax and two B+ players, with two $7 to $10 milion players, and a set of rookies and veterans as key role players? There are different ways to go about it. I’m not saying that is the optimal way of blending player salaries, but I think that’s the trend. I think we’ll see more player signed to Harris/Beal/Porter type deals that will reflect how they’re very good, but ultimately complimentary players to the main guy a team gets in competing for a championship.

That also means that I don’t think Harris’ weaknesses are disqualifying for a deal of that sort. Look at Klay Thompson. He’s a good, not great defender. He’s a below average rebounder. He doesn’t draw fouls. (Consequently—and somewhat surprisingly—his scoring efficiency is very good but not great or elite.) He’s a very good but incomplete player. His flaws are partially hidden by his surrounding cast and the Warriors' style of play, the way it works on a lot of great teams. I think he’s worth more than Tobias Harris; I do *not* think he’s a max player. Tobias Harris, like the link Ranma posted notes, has flaws in his games. But those don’t cancel out his considerable strengths. They just mean he shouldn’t be overpaid. The question becomes, what is a very good but somewhat flawed player worth? Starting at $18 million a year? $20 million $22 million? $24 million? I’d put it somewhere in the middle; YMMV. I don’t think a 5 year/$130 million deal—which would start at around $22.5 million—would be grossly overpaying for Tobias Harris. And I don’t think other teams would think so either; I don’t think (barring injury or some sort of big dropoff) it would affect his positive value in trade either. Ultimately, I think we need to have a top range of what we’ll pay; right now, I’d definitely stop before $24 million. But it’s dependent on how Harris does this year. He’s a valuable player and could (Should? Will? Won’t?) be a piece worth keeping. We can’t tell right now.

[madmaxmedia]

I think we all agree Tobias is not the cornerstone of a big title contender. I guess the open question is- does signing him somewhere in that $20-$27M range get us closer to getting that cornerstone player (by maintaining the talent level of the team), or does it put us further away (by using up too much cap space.) There's no absolute answer to that IMO.

I lean towards the bird in the hand on this one. IIRC at least a couple times teams have headed into the offseason with 2 max slots, and ended up with nothing. LA is a better draw than many other cities, but I feel there are too many moving parts with these scenarios (and then you get unexpected surprises like Paul George staying in OKC.) And if Tobias walks, that makes us less likely to get 1 great FA signing unless someone really wants to be a Clipper.

Finally there is the option of trading him. I think he does have very good trade value, if it came to that. But he's young enough and a good enough shooter that I think it's worth taking the team forward with his strengths and weaknesses in mind.

[Ranma]

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[Ranma]

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[esqtvd]

Even in this, his breakout year, what occurs to you is that Tobias simply doesn't dominate--ever. His career high is only 34 points [Clipper high: 31] and his career high of 20 rebs was way back in 2014 [Clipper high: 12].

Moreover, Tobias has never had a triple-double. Ever. His career high in assists is 8.

https://basketball.realgm.com/player/Tobias-Harris/Bests/7119/NBA


I really like Tobias, but this just doesn't say max guy. He seems to be content to phone in his 20 and 10 [more or less] but he has no Beast Mode.

[Clemenza]

Its obvious Tobias is a 2nd or 3rd option on a championship team. Talented yes but not much defensively and no fire. I'm seriously wondering what can we get for him.. a lottery first rounder? Turn the team over to Shai, draft one of the Duke kids if possible(Zion, Barrett, or Reddish), then nab one or two star free agents and we could complete for a 'ship next season. Jerry West has to be floating this scenario in his head. I'm sure of it.

[esqtvd]

Its obvious Tobias is a 2nd or 3rd option on a championship team. Talented yes but not much defensively and no fire. I'm seriously wondering what can we get for him.. a lottery first rounder? Turn the team over to Shai, draft one of the Duke kids if possible(Zion, Barrett, or Reddish), then nab one or two star free agents and we could complete for a 'ship next season. Jerry West has to be floating this scenario in his head. I'm sure of it.

If Tobias is the 2nd option--or even the 3rd if Shai can step up while on his rookie contract--then we have no $$ problem here. We have room for a max FA [Kawhi?] plus Tobias plus Shai. Maybe Gallo will want to hang around too. We have Lou locked up for cheap. Avery if we want to keep him, a cheap buyout if we don't.

Trezz is online for 2 years, easily tradable at his low $$ number. Pat Bev and Milos are keepable too.


You good?

[Ranma]

Zach Lowe, ESPN.com (11/16/18)

4. Tobias Harris, full extension

Harris loves to go left, and has a knack for finishing with elastic lefty layups extended just over the fingertips of help defenders:

It is uncanny how often he ekes that tilting shot over behemoths. The genius is in the timing of his jump, the stretch, and the loft Harris generates with a flick of his wrist. The ball drifts down and nuzzles the rim with a feathery softness.

Harris is one of those DeMar DeRozan types whose improvement sneaks up on you because of how gradually it comes, year-by-year, small step by small step. He has already hit 9 of 19 pull-up 3s after attempting just 28 combined over 2015-16 and 2016-17, per NBA.com.

The threat of that shot has unlocked a more varied pick-and-roll game. Harris is using about 18 ball screens per 100 possessions, double last season's rate, per Second Spectrum. The Clippers have scored well on those plays.

He can pull up from anywhere. He doesn't turn the ball over. He's more decisive going downhill when he sees a crease. Executives have long questioned his passing -- does he makes teammates better? -- and Harris is averaging just two dimes per game. He's not a great passer. But he's not a bad one, either. He's not a ball-stopping hog.

He gets off the ball when he should -- when he spots a help defender inching off Danilo Gallinari on the strong side; Mike Scott popping open up top; or a window for a slick pocket pass. Harris doesn't throw next-level passes, but he moves the offense from station-to-station. He is a functional passer. There is value in that.

The Clippers don't have a single great passer in their rotation -- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is coming with those Plastic Man hook passes -- but they've built a top-10 offense by capturing the value of attaching one simple play to the next.

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