"You would be wise to lose your flippant ways if you wish to join the honorable Foot Clan!"
"And why should we want to do that?"
"Because it was I who made you what you are today!"
- The Shredder (James Avery) to Leonardo (Cam Clarke), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, "Enter The Shredder"
Following the Clippers loss to the Detroit Pistons starring a vengeful Blake Griffin, Doc Rivers responded to a question by a reporter about his use of Avery Bradley:
Drafted 19th overall in 2010 by the Boston Celtics, the shooting guard from Texas Longhorns established himself as "one of the top defensive guards in the country." Forgoing college after just one year with Longhorns, NBA executives predicted Bradley would either be a middling 1st round pick or drop into the 2nd round. After 8 years in the NBA, Bradley is not living up to expectations as a mid-1st rounder, let alone a 2nd rounder. Every day he continues to play he is starting to look more like a draft bust, yet against the best of interest for the good of the Clippers, Doc has continued to trust Bradley with heavy minutes, citing his Celtics days as the number one reason. Doc even remarked that no statistic in the world can bring down his beloved player, that Bradley is "un-stat-able."
A pair of articles by Ryan Snellings of Clipperholics and Robert Flom of Clips Nation break down how Bradley's extended presence on the court is the Clippers own worst enemy which would be enough to contradict Doc's choice of words.
Snelling's findings are as follows:
1. Dead last of all Clipper players for Player Impact Estimate
2. Dead last of all Clipper players in effective field goal percentage
3. Dead last of all starters in the league in effective field goal percentage when playing 15 minutes or more
4. Opponents shoot 1.6% worse when guarded by Bradley
5. Opponents shoot 7% better from 3-point range when guarded by Bradley
6. Bottom 3rd in Total Points Allowed with -73.94, ahead of Kelly Oubre (2nd) and Allonzo Trier (worst)
Flom has even more:
1. Losing win share of -0.026
2. Negative real difference rating of -4.61, ranked 466th over Kevin Knox (3rd, -6.02), Jamal Crawford (2nd, -6.14) and Collin Sexton (worse, -7.17)
Let me throw myself into the fire: records. Win-loss records can also tell us how the player can effect game conditions simply on presence. The records will be split into two categories: his time with the Clippers, and his time with Celtics under Doc's tutelage. The two known factors that will be used for qualifiers are minutes played above and below 30 and points above or below his career average of 12.3 PTS rounded off.
With Clippers
1. 6-11 when playing 30 minutes or more; 19-11 when less than 30 minutes
2. 7-3 when he scores 12 PTS or more; 18-18 when he scores less than 12 PTS
With Celtics (Doc Rivers years only)
1. 27-21 when playing 30 minutes or more; 31-19 when less than 30 minutes
2. 18-10 when he scores 12 PTS or more; 37-32 when he scores less than 12 PTS
When you look at Bradley's records, his time with Celtics was actually pretty good, but part of this was inflated by Doc's Big 3 Celtics, even after they downgraded to a dynamic duo after Ray Allen defected to LeBron James's Heatles. The Clippers, on the other hand, is strictly a minutes problem: the more minutes he plays, the weaker the Clippers get. But when he plays than 30 minutes as a starter, their percentage reaches minimal levels akin to when Bradley scores less than 12 PTS with Celtics.
But the evidence is practically clear: Bradley's usage is a Doc Rivers problem. Doc wants to believe that he is this great coach who can turn draft busts, wash-ups, has-beens and never-wases into role player-level NBA players. The delusional part is his Celtics ties; because of the Big 3 created by Danny Ainge that gave him his first championship, Doc is led to believe that any Celtic, especially one who played for him before, is a lucky charm who will turn his team's season around simply by putting him on the court, "the luck of the Irish." But as we've seen in this unusual resume season, Bradley has been more detrimental to the team than complementary to their success. It's as if Doc can't stand to win without a former Celtic, so in 4th quarters particularly in clutch situations, he plugs Bradley in just so that he can get a win credit. Now his substitution patterns translates to "I'd rather lose with Bradley than win without him."
I've been unable to find any concrete data on Bradley's usage in 4th quarters, but I do have a hunch that the only time Bradley never plays in 4th is when Clippers are blown out by wide margin. They would need to be down by 20 PTS or greater so that 4th quarter becomes garbage time. Doc wants indisputable proof that a loss is inevitable. But then he'll have a built-in excuse: it's just this one game. And he'll try it again. And again. And again.
"And keep failing, until at last you have no choice but to give me a body !" - Krang (Pat Fraley)
