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Game 56: Los Angeles Clippers (37-18) vs. Sacramento Kings (22-33) - 3:30 PM ET

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Re: Game 56: Los Angeles Clippers (37-18) vs. Sacramento Kings (22-33) - 3:30 PM ET 

Post#161 » by esqtvd » Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:24 pm

madmaxmedia wrote:
MartinToVaught wrote:
donemilio21 wrote:Doc needs to stop making BS excuses. after every loss he blames the injuries and keep saying that we don't have "rhythm". You are the highest paid coach in the league, find the **** rhythm against lottery teams.

That's been Doc's standard procedure for as long as he's been here. He's always has an excuse for everything and knows how to avoid/spin questions he doesn't like. It's how he managed to keep his GM job for as long as he did.

At some point, it's also on Ballmer and Frank for not being able to see these transparent excuses for what they are. It still pisses me off that Doc had the nerve to whine that he "inherited a mess" after the Houston series years ago, even though we were better off before Doc was our GM and Doc forced his way out of Boston to coach said "mess."


I feel like Doc could still be a good leader of our men if he had the right offensive talent in the coaching staff (and trusted them.) Finding and generating offensive rhythm is their JOB after all.



28 DIFFERENT STARTING LINEUPS AND YOU WANT RHYTHM?

3 losses in a row [for the first time all year] and it's fire the coach. Amazing. True, the team has to start coming out with more fire but that's been Kawhi's call all along. He's the one who's been telling everyone to keep cool. It's his team. Let's see what happens now.
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Re: Game 56: Los Angeles Clippers (37-18) vs. Sacramento Kings (22-33) - 3:30 PM ET 

Post#162 » by esqtvd » Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:32 pm

MartinRiggs wrote:It is not all about stats and analytics. We are not robots and coach should follow his instinct and react to situation on court. There is no reason to hardcap anyone what will they do if Trez gets injured? :-?


No one's being hard-capped. Doc has stretched Zubac out to 20 minutes a game from 16-18. Otherwise, that's all he's earned. Ignore the numbers if you want but that's not an argument, only emotion.

og15 wrote:
With Leonard:
Zubac: 293 mins, 115.9 Ortg, 110.5 Drtg, +5.5 NetRtg
Harrell: 225 mins, 120.5 Ortg, 108.8 Drtg, +11.8 NetRtg

With Williams:
Zubac: 121 mins, 103.0 Ortg, 109.3 Drtg, -6.3 NetRtg
Harrell: 456 mins, 110.2 Ortg, 111.7 Drtg, -1.5 NetRtg

With George and Leonard:
Zubac: 83 mins, 114.0 Ortg, 110.7 Drtg, +3.3 NetRtg
Harrell: 32 mins, 113.6 Ortg, 102.9 Drtg, +10.7 NetRtg

Williams/Leonard/Harrell: 171 mins, 118.4 Ortg, 107.6 Drtg, +10.8 NetRtg

I’ll have to say that I did not necessarily expect the numbers to look like this, but if we’re using lineup data and normalizing to an extent for who is on the court with the bigs (Zubac vs Harrell), lineups with Harrell are winning by a landslide when it comes to defense and overall net per possession production. This is both for the season as a whole and since the start of the new year.

So even in that sample size since January, you’re still getting a better result both offensive and defensively when you pair Kawhi and Harrell vs pairing Kawhi and Zubac. Playing either with Williams suggest that you are still getting a better overall result with Harrell, and then combined with the w/Leonard and w/George+Leonard data suggests that Harrell on his own is not giving an inferior defensive result to Zubac, but it is the pieces around them making the difference. The data is actually leaning towards Harrell giving a superior defensive contribution altogether, though it is not comprehensive and complete data to make a definitive statement like that. We also see that the Williams/Leonard/Harrell lineup even in January has been performing very well.




Now, it's a shame we have to lean on Lou so much, but we do. Pat and PG's absence has put a big hole at guard, and Shamet's been mostly lousy too in his extended minutes. If you want to put your finger on the problem instead of pointing fingers [at the wrong people], there it is.
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Re: Game 56: Los Angeles Clippers (37-18) vs. Sacramento Kings (22-33) - 3:30 PM ET 

Post#163 » by NippySudz » Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:49 pm

esqtvd wrote:
NippySudz wrote:We cannot be wasting time bullsh..ing with games anymore. There's no reason why zubac should be hardcapped at 20 mins. If zu is only going to play 20 mins, then please adjust the rotations so that its spread out to at least the 4th quarter.

Second unit needs to do a better job of not playing Lou-Ball. Lou is a gift and curse. I love him as a player, I love what he brings. I just don't love it to that extent. Reggie being in the second unit will hopefully help with this. But we can't rely on 2 guys playing one dimensional pnr which hasn't been as effective this season while we have other weapons on the team.

I really hope someone in th analytics department can get through the coaching staff to make adjustments. I'm not saying coach by analytics. I'm saying use the tool. Stop ignoring it and coaching early 2010s basketball. Everyones using the tool now, it would be silly to ignore it.




Analytics. Yes, by all means. It looks like you [and some others] missed or completely ignored OG's exhaustive analysis of the stats. Let's review them for those who came in late.




og15 wrote:That’s of course the second question, and maybe a harder one to figure out, or maybe not. One way we can attempt to hypothesize is look at two and three man lineups such as Kawhi/Zubac vs Kawhi/Harrell and Lou/Zubac vs Lou/Harrell and Kawhi/George/Zubac vs Kawhi/George/Harrell and try and get a feel for what’s happening there. Of course sample sizes might not be sufficient to make conclusions. Here’s some of that.

With Leonard:
Zubac: 698 mins, 112.5 Ortg, 105.3 Drtg, +7.2 NetRtg
Harrell: 635 mins, 116.8 Ortg, 100.4 Drtg, +16.5 NetRtg

With Williams:
Zubac: 299 mins, 103.1 Ortg, 107.2 Drtg, -4.2 NetRtg
Harrell: 1222 mins, 110.9 Ortg, 106.5 Drtg, +4.4 NetRtg

With Leonard and George:
Zubac: 355 mins, 114.7 Ortg, 104.9 Drtg, +9.8 NetRtg
Harrell: 199 mins, 109.7 Ortg, 97.4 Drtg, +12.3 NetRtg

So the first thing to notice is that when they are on the floor with Kawhi, a combination that has good and similar sample sizes for both, the units with Harrell is really moping the floor with the units that have Zubac. This is certainly a good argument for the coaching staffs use of Harrell. That unit is also 5 points/100 better on defense.

Second is that when you isolate each with Williams, we see that Harrell is actually still winning on both ends, but also that Zubac does not provide enough offensive help and there’s a drastic drop off offensively. Overall there’s a 8.2 point/100 difference in team production, and again, defensively, you’re still getting a better result with Harrell. Large discrepancy in sample size here though.

Now we look at with both George and Leonard, and we see something different offensively, we get a drop there, and maybe surprising to some, but defensively again, the lineups with Harrell win by a large margin, this time 7.5 pts/100 better on defense, and still having a better NetRtg despite being inferior on offense.

That’s a lot of data pointing in one direction and should certainly be analyzed and taken into account.

The Bench Lineups
In terms of the bench struggling defensively, SlayrofDynasties mentioning of the 3 man combination of Williams/Shamet/Harrell is telling, and obviously it makes sense. Two smaller guards like that can be trouble on defense depending on who the players are. With Williams, Shamet will get forced to guard less favourable matchups for him, reducing his defensive effectiveness, and Williams is just not a good defender either way.

Williams/Harrell/Shamet: 460 mins, 110.0 Ortg, 110.9 Drtg, -1.0 NetRtg

BUT, If we add Leonard to the Williams/Shamet combo:
Williams/Leonard/Shamet: 249 mins, 112.9 Ortg, 107.5 Drtg, +5.3 NetRtg

So Kawhi is able to balance out that combination when he plays with them.

Okay, what about having Leonard on with Williams and Harrell?
Leonard/Williams/Harrell: 464 mins, 114.8 Ortg, 98.8 Drtg, +16.0 NetRtg

The lineups with Leonard/Williams/Harrell is actually one of the strongest 3 man combinations on the team. So Kawhi has been a balancing force for the Williams/Harrell combo in a whole season sense, they are elite both on offense and defense for their 464 minutes. If we look at 3 man lineups with 150+ mins, out of the top 15 in Drtg, Harrell is part of 7 of them. In the top 20, he’s part of 10 of the 20. Zubac on the other hand is part of just 1 of the top 15, and that is 12th, and just two in the top 20. Harrell is part of the best 3 man unit with 150+ minutes, Beverley/Leonard/Harrell (246 mins, 122.5 Ortg, 91.1 Drtg, +31.4 NetRtg).


Since January
Piggy backing off the other thread about Williams and Harrell in the New Year, since January:

With Leonard:
Zubac: 293 mins, 115.9 Ortg, 110.5 Drtg, +5.5 NetRtg
Harrell: 225 mins, 120.5 Ortg, 108.8 Drtg, +11.8 NetRtg

With Williams:
Zubac: 121 mins, 103.0 Ortg, 109.3 Drtg, -6.3 NetRtg
Harrell: 456 mins, 110.2 Ortg, 111.7 Drtg, -1.5 NetRtg

With George and Leonard:
Zubac: 83 mins, 114.0 Ortg, 110.7 Drtg, +3.3 NetRtg
Harrell: 32 mins, 113.6 Ortg, 102.9 Drtg, +10.7 NetRtg

Williams/Leonard/Harrell: 171 mins, 118.4 Ortg, 107.6 Drtg, +10.8 NetRtg

I’ll have to say that I did not necessarily expect the numbers to look like this, but if we’re using lineup data and normalizing to an extent for who is on the court with the bigs (Zubac vs Harrell), lineups with Harrell are winning by a landslide when it comes to defense and overall net per possession production. This is both for the season as a whole and since the start of the new year.

So even in that sample size since January, you’re still getting a better result both offensive and defensively when you pair Kawhi and Harrell vs pairing Kawhi and Zubac. Playing either with Williams suggest that you are still getting a better overall result with Harrell, and then combined with the w/Leonard and w/George+Leonard data suggests that Harrell on his own is not giving an inferior defensive result to Zubac, but it is the pieces around them making the difference. The data is actually leaning towards Harrell giving a superior defensive contribution altogether, though it is not comprehensive and complete data to make a definitive statement like that. We also see that the Williams/Leonard/Harrell lineup even in January has been performing very well.
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Re: Game 56: Los Angeles Clippers (37-18) vs. Sacramento Kings (22-33) - 3:30 PM ET 

Post#164 » by MartinRiggs » Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:56 pm

No surprise there. He is gassed because Analytics Rivers thinks Zubac should not play in the last 18 minutes. :D
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Re: Game 56: Los Angeles Clippers (37-18) vs. Sacramento Kings (22-33) - 3:30 PM ET 

Post#165 » by NippySudz » Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:00 pm

madmaxmedia wrote:
NippySudz wrote:We cannot be wasting time bullsh..ing with games anymore. There's no reason why zubac should be hardcapped at 20 mins. If zu is only going to play 20 mins, then please adjust the rotations so that its spread out to at least the 4th quarter.

Second unit needs to do a better job of not playing Lou-Ball. Lou is a gift and curse. I love him as a player, I love what he brings. I just don't love it to that extent. Reggie being in the second unit will hopefully help with this. But we can't rely on 2 guys playing one dimensional pnr which hasn't been as effective this season while we have other weapons on the team.

I really hope someone in th analytics department can get through the coaching staff to make adjustments. I'm not saying coach by analytics. I'm saying use the tool. Stop ignoring it and coaching early 2010s basketball. Everyones using the tool now, it would be silly to ignore it.


There is a definite ceiling to Lou ball, and I think we're seeing it now. I also love what he brings and he carries a significant load on our team, but the reality is a championship team probably can't have a primary scorer shooting 41-42% from the field. If that's how your team is contructed, the math is going to come back to bite you. It was great last year when we were a scrappy surprise team hovering somewhat above .500, but not now. He can still be a significant contributor on this team, but the second unit can't be mainly Lou and Trez ball.

The same goes for Trez, in a different way. I love him but he has his own ceiling. Either Zu is going to develop into a genuine 30 MPG center soon, or we're going to need help in the middle.
Lou ball is playoff contender. That's the ceiling. He can maybe get you to the playoffs. That's a maybe. It's 50-50 where as lessening Lou ball is championship contending imo. Once the squad is healthy and if doc makes the adjustments, we'll get to see that.

Both trez and Lou should be used accordingly to what they are: bench players. Sparks off the bench. They're not starters and they shouldn't at like starters. They are. Bench that's supposed to push the lead when our main guys sit down.

Once we get the lead or push it, they should sit down and let the starters do the thing. We can't keep depending on them To won games. That's so lazy and very stubborn. He's treating Lou and trez like they are a big part of this. Like it's a big four.

It's a big one and a half. Kawhi and Paul George. Everyone freaking fall in line and sacrifice.

Lou ball resembles a lot like pickup/Rucker Park basketball.

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Re: Game 56: Los Angeles Clippers (37-18) vs. Sacramento Kings (22-33) - 3:30 PM ET 

Post#166 » by NippySudz » Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:05 pm

esqtvd wrote:
madmaxmedia wrote:
MartinToVaught wrote:That's been Doc's standard procedure for as long as he's been here. He's always has an excuse for everything and knows how to avoid/spin questions he doesn't like. It's how he managed to keep his GM job for as long as he did.

At some point, it's also on Ballmer and Frank for not being able to see these transparent excuses for what they are. It still pisses me off that Doc had the nerve to whine that he "inherited a mess" after the Houston series years ago, even though we were better off before Doc was our GM and Doc forced his way out of Boston to coach said "mess."


I feel like Doc could still be a good leader of our men if he had the right offensive talent in the coaching staff (and trusted them.) Finding and generating offensive rhythm is their JOB after all.



28 DIFFERENT STARTING LINEUPS AND YOU WANT RHYTHM?

3 losses in a row [for the first time all year] and it's fire the coach. Amazing. True, the team has to start coming out with more fire but that's been Kawhi's call all along. He's the one who's been telling everyone to keep cool. It's his team. Let's see what happens now.
Injuries happen, continuity is still a concern but there are losses that's no excuses. I don't care if it's 28 lineups or 90. Kawhi in the lineup against sub .500 teams is still enough to win some games.

Some of it is on the coaching. Some of it is on continuity.


Losing against Atlanta up 30ish was on the coaching staff. Anyone who says different is just fooling themselves.


That's not saying get him outta here. That's saying make the adjustments needed. Try something new. Particularly when it comes to the center position

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Re: Game 56: Los Angeles Clippers (37-18) vs. Sacramento Kings (22-33) - 3:30 PM ET 

Post#167 » by esqtvd » Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:16 pm

NippySudz wrote:
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Well, see, that's actual fact and argument! That wasn't so hard, was it? :D


So let's peel back the onion. Who's 2nd worst? That would be Kawhi Leonard, at minus-4.3. Now is it Trezz dragging him down, or is it something else?

https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=NET_RATING&dir=-1&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&LastNGames=15&Period=4&TeamID=1610612746

Trezz's slightly worse number is easily explained by the minutes he played [and Kawhi didn't] at the beginning of the 4th quarter with the dreadful Rodney McGruder, who was averaging 5.4 fourth-quarter minutes at an impossibly bad minus-14.8.

And in the 3 games Marcus Morris has played, he's averaged 7.7 fourth-quarter minutes and a jaw-dropping minus-24.3. And before the trade, Harkless played 6 games and 4.1 fourth-quarter mpg at an unimaginable minus-41.8.


Now the stat you posted lends some possible support to the Planet Zubac thesis [more Zu, less Trezz], but it's not definitive. Plug Pat Bev and PG in for those minutes, and things are surely different.

Kawhi's getting plenty of rest yet his 4th-quarter number of minus-4.3 is crap too. A surface reading of the same stat you posted would also blame him, but that's absurd.
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Re: Game 56: Los Angeles Clippers (37-18) vs. Sacramento Kings (22-33) - 3:30 PM ET 

Post#168 » by NippySudz » Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:41 pm

esqtvd wrote:
NippySudz wrote:
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Well, see, that's actual fact and argument! That wasn't so hard, was it? :D


So let's peel back the onion. Who's 2nd worst? That would be Kawhi Leonard, at minus-4.3. Now is it Trezz dragging him down, or is it something else?

https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=NET_RATING&dir=-1&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&LastNGames=15&Period=4&TeamID=1610612746

Trezz's slightly worse number is easily explained by the minutes he played [and Kawhi didn't] at the beginning of the 4th quarter with the dreadful Rodney McGruder, who was averaging 5.4 fourth-quarter minutes at an impossibly bad minus-14.8.

And in the 3 games Marcus Morris has played, he's averaged 7.7 fourth-quarter minutes and a jaw-dropping minus-24.3. And before the trade, Harkless played 6 games and 4.1 fourth-quarter mpg at an unimaginable minus-41.8.


Now the stat you posted lends some possible support to the Planet Zubac thesis [more Zu, less Trezz], but it's not definitive. Plug Pat Bev and PG in for those minutes, and things are surely different.

Kawhi's getting plenty of rest yet his 4th-quarter number of minus-4.3 is crap too. A surface reading of the same stat you posted would also blame him, but that's absurd.
I'm not arguing planet Zubac ..at least not to the point you're suggesting. I'm arguing that stretch his mins to include some of that in the 4th quarter. Harrell playing long mins is not effective.

You can give me all the numbers you want but the **** won't matter if we don't win. Clips in the top ten in offensive and defensive rating last yr. Doesn't matter. They lost.

If you want to argue numbers, then be consistent. You can't use numbers to support your argument then move the goalposts when they don't support your narrative .be consistent. I understand context is important so I respect your view to argue but I or others aren't empty talking here.

Also our reliance on Lou will and trezz is not good. We haven't had a healthy yr so they've been asked to do some things outside of their capabilities. I do acknowledge that but the team has to move away from those guys. They're complimentary pieces. They are not a big four. It's kawhi and everyone fall in line.

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Re: Game 56: Los Angeles Clippers (37-18) vs. Sacramento Kings (22-33) - 3:30 PM ET 

Post#169 » by MartinToVaught » Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:04 pm

esqtvd wrote:3 losses in a row [for the first time all year] and it's fire the coach.

Correction: 7 years of underachievement and it's fire the coach.
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Re: Game 56: Los Angeles Clippers (37-18) vs. Sacramento Kings (22-33) - 3:30 PM ET 

Post#170 » by esqtvd » Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:06 pm

NippySudz wrote:If you want to argue numbers, then be consistent. You can't use numbers to support your argument then move the goalposts when they don't support your narrative .be consistent. I understand context is important so I respect your view to argue but I or others aren't empty talking here.



Of course they are. This "I don't care about the numbers, I know what I see" crap is absurd.

You actually posted a number--the first time in this discussion. And I answered with numbers. I'm completely consistent. You just can't fire off a single stat and do a victory dance without engaging the rebuttal.

Kawhi has the 2nd-worst 4th quarter stat. I used your own numbers. I spent 20 minutes on a principled and factual rebuttal. Reply, or move on.
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Re: Game 56: Los Angeles Clippers (37-18) vs. Sacramento Kings (22-33) - 3:30 PM ET 

Post#171 » by esqtvd » Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:12 pm

MartinToVaught wrote:
esqtvd wrote:3 losses in a row [for the first time all year] and it's fire the coach.

Correction: 7 years of underachievement and it's fire the coach.


Yes, you said that. Fifteen times. In this thread alone. Every day. Every thread.

Mercy.
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Re: Game 56: Los Angeles Clippers (37-18) vs. Sacramento Kings (22-33) - 3:30 PM ET 

Post#172 » by MartinToVaught » Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:13 pm

esqtvd wrote:
MartinToVaught wrote:
esqtvd wrote:3 losses in a row [for the first time all year] and it's fire the coach.

Correction: 7 years of underachievement and it's fire the coach.


Yes, you said that. Fifteen times. In this thread alone. Every day. Every thread.

Mercy.

I'll stop saying it when it stops being true.
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Re: Game 56: Los Angeles Clippers (37-18) vs. Sacramento Kings (22-33) - 3:30 PM ET 

Post#173 » by NippySudz » Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:18 pm

esqtvd wrote:
NippySudz wrote:If you want to argue numbers, then be consistent. You can't use numbers to support your argument then move the goalposts when they don't support your narrative .be consistent. I understand context is important so I respect your view to argue but I or others aren't empty talking here.



Of course they are. This "I don't care about the numbers, I know what I see" crap is absurd.

You actually posted a number--the first time in this discussion. And I answered with numbers. I'm completely consistent. You just can't fire off a single stat and do a victory dance without engaging the rebuttal.

Kawhi has the 2nd-worst 4th quarter stat. I used your own numbers. I spent 20 minutes on a principled and factual rebuttal. Reply, or move on.
So let's ignore that kawhi had an MVP like run in the past month and a half and that Lou will and trez haven't been as effective as they are.

Kawhi's -4 is explainable. He's having to pick up everyone else and we're still losing winnable games

Trez and Lou are not only having to pick up slack but the numbers don't lie that they're been playing two months of horrible basketball, particularly Lou and numbers don't show the shot quality he's been taking but if you want to see that in the numbers, look in games where shamet plays with the second unit and the number of shots he gets. That will tell you.

We shouldn't be losing to Atlanta with no tray young up by 20+.

The time is now to get their asses in gear. We need a good stretch of like a
10+wins.



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Re: Game 56: Los Angeles Clippers (37-18) vs. Sacramento Kings (22-33) - 3:30 PM ET 

Post#174 » by esqtvd » Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:27 pm

NippySudz wrote:
esqtvd wrote:
NippySudz wrote:If you want to argue numbers, then be consistent. You can't use numbers to support your argument then move the goalposts when they don't support your narrative .be consistent. I understand context is important so I respect your view to argue but I or others aren't empty talking here.



Of course they are. This "I don't care about the numbers, I know what I see" crap is absurd.

You actually posted a number--the first time in this discussion. And I answered with numbers. I'm completely consistent. You just can't fire off a single stat and do a victory dance without engaging the rebuttal.

Kawhi has the 2nd-worst 4th quarter stat. I used your own numbers. I spent 20 minutes on a principled and factual rebuttal. Reply, or move on.
So let's ignore that kawhi had an MVP like run in the past month and a half and that Lou will and trez haven't been as effective as they are.

Kawhi's -4 is explainable. He's having to pick up everyone else and we're still losing winnable games

Trez and Lou are not only having to pick up slack but the numbers don't lie that they're been playing two months of horrible basketball, particularly Lou and numbers don't show the shot quality he's been taking but if you want to see that in the numbers, look in games where shamet plays with the second unit and the number of shots he gets. That will tell you.

We shouldn't be losing to Atlanta with no tray young up by 20+.

The time is now to get their asses in gear. We need a good stretch of like a
10+wins.



But Lou and Trezz HAVEN'T played 2 months of bad basketball. I hate to see you get swept up by the negative people here who don't know squat about basketball. Lou is struggling a bit because of having to make up a LOT of minutes with PG and Bev out, and Trezz's numbers would suffer too because they play so many minutes together.



og wrote:

Since January
Piggy backing off the other thread about Williams and Harrell in the New Year, since January:

With Leonard:
Zubac: 293 mins, 115.9 Ortg, 110.5 Drtg, +5.5 NetRtg
Harrell: 225 mins, 120.5 Ortg, 108.8 Drtg, +11.8 NetRtg

With Williams:
Zubac: 121 mins, 103.0 Ortg, 109.3 Drtg, -6.3 NetRtg
Harrell: 456 mins, 110.2 Ortg, 111.7 Drtg, -1.5 NetRtg

With George and Leonard:
Zubac: 83 mins, 114.0 Ortg, 110.7 Drtg, +3.3 NetRtg
Harrell: 32 mins, 113.6 Ortg, 102.9 Drtg, +10.7 NetRtg

Williams/Leonard/Harrell: 171 mins, 118.4 Ortg, 107.6 Drtg, +10.8 NetRtg

I’ll have to say that I did not necessarily expect the numbers to look like this, but if we’re using lineup data and normalizing to an extent for who is on the court with the bigs (Zubac vs Harrell), lineups with Harrell are winning by a landslide when it comes to defense and overall net per possession production. This is both for the season as a whole and since the start of the new year.

So even in that sample size since January, you’re still getting a better result both offensive and defensively when you pair Kawhi and Harrell vs pairing Kawhi and Zubac. Playing either with Williams suggest that you are still getting a better overall result with Harrell, and then combined with the w/Leonard and w/George+Leonard data suggests that Harrell on his own is not giving an inferior defensive result to Zubac, but it is the pieces around them making the difference. The data is actually leaning towards Harrell giving a superior defensive contribution altogether, though it is not comprehensive and complete data to make a definitive statement like that. We also see that the Williams/Leonard/Harrell lineup even in January has been performing very well.




Just hang in there and don't panic. Bev and PG are just around the corner.
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NippySudz
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Re: Game 56: Los Angeles Clippers (37-18) vs. Sacramento Kings (22-33) - 3:30 PM ET 

Post#175 » by NippySudz » Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:30 am

esqtvd wrote:
NippySudz wrote:
esqtvd wrote:
Of course they are. This "I don't care about the numbers, I know what I see" crap is absurd.

You actually posted a number--the first time in this discussion. And I answered with numbers. I'm completely consistent. You just can't fire off a single stat and do a victory dance without engaging the rebuttal.

Kawhi has the 2nd-worst 4th quarter stat. I used your own numbers. I spent 20 minutes on a principled and factual rebuttal. Reply, or move on.
So let's ignore that kawhi had an MVP like run in the past month and a half and that Lou will and trez haven't been as effective as they are.

Kawhi's -4 is explainable. He's having to pick up everyone else and we're still losing winnable games

Trez and Lou are not only having to pick up slack but the numbers don't lie that they're been playing two months of horrible basketball, particularly Lou and numbers don't show the shot quality he's been taking but if you want to see that in the numbers, look in games where shamet plays with the second unit and the number of shots he gets. That will tell you.

We shouldn't be losing to Atlanta with no tray young up by 20+.

The time is now to get their asses in gear. We need a good stretch of like a
10+wins.



But Lou and Trezz HAVEN'T played 2 months of bad basketball. I hate to see you get swept up by the negative people here who don't know squat about basketball. Lou is struggling a bit because of having to make up a LOT of minutes with PG and Bev out, and Trezz's numbers would suffer too because they play so many minutes together.



og wrote:

Since January
Piggy backing off the other thread about Williams and Harrell in the New Year, since January:

With Leonard:
Zubac: 293 mins, 115.9 Ortg, 110.5 Drtg, +5.5 NetRtg
Harrell: 225 mins, 120.5 Ortg, 108.8 Drtg, +11.8 NetRtg

With Williams:
Zubac: 121 mins, 103.0 Ortg, 109.3 Drtg, -6.3 NetRtg
Harrell: 456 mins, 110.2 Ortg, 111.7 Drtg, -1.5 NetRtg

With George and Leonard:
Zubac: 83 mins, 114.0 Ortg, 110.7 Drtg, +3.3 NetRtg
Harrell: 32 mins, 113.6 Ortg, 102.9 Drtg, +10.7 NetRtg

Williams/Leonard/Harrell: 171 mins, 118.4 Ortg, 107.6 Drtg, +10.8 NetRtg

I’ll have to say that I did not necessarily expect the numbers to look like this, but if we’re using lineup data and normalizing to an extent for who is on the court with the bigs (Zubac vs Harrell), lineups with Harrell are winning by a landslide when it comes to defense and overall net per possession production. This is both for the season as a whole and since the start of the new year.

So even in that sample size since January, you’re still getting a better result both offensive and defensively when you pair Kawhi and Harrell vs pairing Kawhi and Zubac. Playing either with Williams suggest that you are still getting a better overall result with Harrell, and then combined with the w/Leonard and w/George+Leonard data suggests that Harrell on his own is not giving an inferior defensive result to Zubac, but it is the pieces around them making the difference. The data is actually leaning towards Harrell giving a superior defensive contribution altogether, though it is not comprehensive and complete data to make a definitive statement like that. We also see that the Williams/Leonard/Harrell lineup even in January has been performing very well.




Just hang in there and don't panic. Bev and PG are just around the corner.
Again, you can really make the numbers say what you want it to say.

There's stats out there that show that trez and Lou are net negatives since January. The clippers are not a terrible team. We're just not playing well as championship contenders are. So having a positive net rating or whatever isn't a strong indicator of how well the team is playing necessarily.

Again, you leave out that Lou shot 30% for a month and a half or the quality of shots the second unit is getting. You are leaving out the quality of shots Lou is not generating for other players not named trez and kawhi.

Need to do better and I hope once we are all healthy. We'll peak. But everyone has to be better and that includes the coaching staff
Don't be afraid to try something different. Not gonna jump on doc if he does. Zu has only played 16mins in the 4th all season and in some cases it didn't work out and I didn't blame doc for it. The center position for the clips is weak.

But he can't go away from it. Zu really does need reps in the fourth..as players and coaches say, the 4th quarter is a new game. His number is going to be called. The unexpected happens in the playoffs. He needs reps. It's for the betterment of the team. Same thing with reducing Lou ball.


Just imagine you're a player in the league your coach has never trusted you to play in the fourth, not even in the regular season and now all of a sudden you have to step in the 4th in the WCF or finals and check in..man he's going to be wide eyes and nervous.
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Re: Game 56: Los Angeles Clippers (37-18) vs. Sacramento Kings (22-33) - 3:30 PM ET 

Post#176 » by esqtvd » Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:46 am

NippySudz wrote:
esqtvd wrote:
NippySudz wrote:So let's ignore that kawhi had an MVP like run in the past month and a half and that Lou will and trez haven't been as effective as they are.

Kawhi's -4 is explainable. He's having to pick up everyone else and we're still losing winnable games

Trez and Lou are not only having to pick up slack but the numbers don't lie that they're been playing two months of horrible basketball, particularly Lou and numbers don't show the shot quality he's been taking but if you want to see that in the numbers, look in games where shamet plays with the second unit and the number of shots he gets. That will tell you.

We shouldn't be losing to Atlanta with no tray young up by 20+.

The time is now to get their asses in gear. We need a good stretch of like a
10+wins.



But Lou and Trezz HAVEN'T played 2 months of bad basketball. I hate to see you get swept up by the negative people here who don't know squat about basketball. Lou is struggling a bit because of having to make up a LOT of minutes with PG and Bev out, and Trezz's numbers would suffer too because they play so many minutes together.



og wrote:

Since January
Piggy backing off the other thread about Williams and Harrell in the New Year, since January:

With Leonard:
Zubac: 293 mins, 115.9 Ortg, 110.5 Drtg, +5.5 NetRtg
Harrell: 225 mins, 120.5 Ortg, 108.8 Drtg, +11.8 NetRtg

With Williams:
Zubac: 121 mins, 103.0 Ortg, 109.3 Drtg, -6.3 NetRtg
Harrell: 456 mins, 110.2 Ortg, 111.7 Drtg, -1.5 NetRtg

With George and Leonard:
Zubac: 83 mins, 114.0 Ortg, 110.7 Drtg, +3.3 NetRtg
Harrell: 32 mins, 113.6 Ortg, 102.9 Drtg, +10.7 NetRtg

Williams/Leonard/Harrell: 171 mins, 118.4 Ortg, 107.6 Drtg, +10.8 NetRtg

I’ll have to say that I did not necessarily expect the numbers to look like this, but if we’re using lineup data and normalizing to an extent for who is on the court with the bigs (Zubac vs Harrell), lineups with Harrell are winning by a landslide when it comes to defense and overall net per possession production. This is both for the season as a whole and since the start of the new year.

So even in that sample size since January, you’re still getting a better result both offensive and defensively when you pair Kawhi and Harrell vs pairing Kawhi and Zubac. Playing either with Williams suggest that you are still getting a better overall result with Harrell, and then combined with the w/Leonard and w/George+Leonard data suggests that Harrell on his own is not giving an inferior defensive result to Zubac, but it is the pieces around them making the difference. The data is actually leaning towards Harrell giving a superior defensive contribution altogether, though it is not comprehensive and complete data to make a definitive statement like that. We also see that the Williams/Leonard/Harrell lineup even in January has been performing very well.




Just hang in there and don't panic. Bev and PG are just around the corner.
Again, you can really make the numbers say what you want it to say.



That's BS. The scoreboard always tell the truth, and that's all plus/minus [or Net Rating] is. Then you obviously have to go past the surface--Kawhi's minus-4.3 rating is no doubt due to missing PG and Bev. But that same benefit of the doubt also points in Trezz's direction.

If you want to ignore the scoreboard and put Zu into the 4th quarter anyway, that's different. But here's the stat that's been staring us in the face that may make all the other ones insignificant.

Since January

With Williams:
Zubac: 121 mins, 103.0 Ortg, 109.3 Drtg, -6.3 NetRtg
Harrell: 456 mins, 110.2 Ortg, 111.7 Drtg, -1.5 NetRtg



The fact is, the Lou-Zu combination is really horrible. And with Bev out, Lou is our point guard; with PG out, Lou's our second-leading scorer. Somebody's got to go, and that somebody is Zubac. Even if Lou's sucking, the alternatives are even worse.

The logical explanation still leads back to the injuries, not pointing fingers at the guys who are heroically holding the fort.
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