Analytics. Yes, by all means. It looks like you [and some others] missed or completely ignored OG's exhaustive analysis of the stats. Let's review them for those who came in late.
og15 wrote:That’s of course the second question, and maybe a harder one to figure out, or maybe not. One way we can attempt to hypothesize is look at two and three man lineups such as Kawhi/Zubac vs Kawhi/Harrell and Lou/Zubac vs Lou/Harrell and Kawhi/George/Zubac vs Kawhi/George/Harrell and try and get a feel for what’s happening there. Of course sample sizes might not be sufficient to make conclusions. Here’s some of that.
With Leonard:
Zubac: 698 mins, 112.5 Ortg, 105.3 Drtg, +7.2 NetRtg
Harrell: 635 mins, 116.8 Ortg, 100.4 Drtg, +16.5 NetRtg
With Williams:
Zubac: 299 mins, 103.1 Ortg, 107.2 Drtg, -4.2 NetRtg
Harrell: 1222 mins, 110.9 Ortg, 106.5 Drtg, +4.4 NetRtg
With Leonard and George:
Zubac: 355 mins, 114.7 Ortg, 104.9 Drtg, +9.8 NetRtg
Harrell: 199 mins, 109.7 Ortg, 97.4 Drtg, +12.3 NetRtg
So the first thing to notice is that when they are on the floor with Kawhi, a combination that has good and similar sample sizes for both, the units with Harrell is really moping the floor with the units that have Zubac. This is certainly a good argument for the coaching staffs use of Harrell. That unit is also 5 points/100 better on defense.
Second is that when you isolate each with Williams, we see that Harrell is actually still winning on both ends, but also that Zubac does not provide enough offensive help and there’s a drastic drop off offensively. Overall there’s a 8.2 point/100 difference in team production, and again, defensively, you’re still getting a better result with Harrell. Large discrepancy in sample size here though.
Now we look at with both George and Leonard, and we see something different offensively, we get a drop there, and maybe surprising to some, but defensively again, the lineups with Harrell win by a large margin, this time 7.5 pts/100 better on defense, and still having a better NetRtg despite being inferior on offense.
That’s a lot of data pointing in one direction and should certainly be analyzed and taken into account.
The Bench Lineups
In terms of the bench struggling defensively, SlayrofDynasties mentioning of the 3 man combination of Williams/Shamet/Harrell is telling, and obviously it makes sense. Two smaller guards like that can be trouble on defense depending on who the players are. With Williams, Shamet will get forced to guard less favourable matchups for him, reducing his defensive effectiveness, and Williams is just not a good defender either way.
Williams/Harrell/Shamet: 460 mins, 110.0 Ortg, 110.9 Drtg, -1.0 NetRtg
BUT, If we add Leonard to the Williams/Shamet combo:
Williams/Leonard/Shamet: 249 mins, 112.9 Ortg, 107.5 Drtg, +5.3 NetRtg
So Kawhi is able to balance out that combination when he plays with them.
Okay, what about having Leonard on with Williams and Harrell?
Leonard/Williams/Harrell: 464 mins, 114.8 Ortg, 98.8 Drtg, +16.0 NetRtg
The lineups with Leonard/Williams/Harrell is actually one of the strongest 3 man combinations on the team. So Kawhi has been a balancing force for the Williams/Harrell combo in a whole season sense, they are elite both on offense and defense for their 464 minutes. If we look at 3 man lineups with 150+ mins, out of the top 15 in Drtg, Harrell is part of 7 of them. In the top 20, he’s part of 10 of the 20. Zubac on the other hand is part of just 1 of the top 15, and that is 12th, and just two in the top 20. Harrell is part of the best 3 man unit with 150+ minutes, Beverley/Leonard/Harrell (246 mins, 122.5 Ortg, 91.1 Drtg, +31.4 NetRtg).
Since January
Piggy backing off the other thread about Williams and Harrell in the New Year, since January:
With Leonard:
Zubac: 293 mins, 115.9 Ortg, 110.5 Drtg, +5.5 NetRtg
Harrell: 225 mins, 120.5 Ortg, 108.8 Drtg, +11.8 NetRtg
With Williams:
Zubac: 121 mins, 103.0 Ortg, 109.3 Drtg, -6.3 NetRtg
Harrell: 456 mins, 110.2 Ortg, 111.7 Drtg, -1.5 NetRtg
With George and Leonard:
Zubac: 83 mins, 114.0 Ortg, 110.7 Drtg, +3.3 NetRtg
Harrell: 32 mins, 113.6 Ortg, 102.9 Drtg, +10.7 NetRtg
Williams/Leonard/Harrell: 171 mins, 118.4 Ortg, 107.6 Drtg, +10.8 NetRtg
I’ll have to say that I did not necessarily expect the numbers to look like this, but if we’re using lineup data and normalizing to an extent for who is on the court with the bigs (Zubac vs Harrell), lineups with Harrell are winning by a landslide when it comes to defense and overall net per possession production. This is both for the season as a whole and since the start of the new year.
So even in that sample size since January, you’re still getting a better result both offensive and defensively when you pair Kawhi and Harrell vs pairing Kawhi and Zubac. Playing either with Williams suggest that you are still getting a better overall result with Harrell, and then combined with the w/Leonard and w/George+Leonard data suggests that Harrell on his own is not giving an inferior defensive result to Zubac, but it is the pieces around them making the difference. The data is actually leaning towards Harrell giving a superior defensive contribution altogether, though it is not comprehensive and complete data to make a definitive statement like that. We also see that the Williams/Leonard/Harrell lineup even in January has been performing very well.