GAME 39: Clippers (24-14) vs Warriors (19-18)—Thurs 7PM PST on TNT

[RingColluder]

Today Montrez went 8-11 in 32 minutes, 6 rebounds, 3 blocks 17 points
Kuzma went 8-18 (3-6 from 3) 30 minutes 13 rebounds 24 points

I can only dream of Zu ever once hitting those numbers once in a season

Production is a tricky business. Trezz and Kuzma were also only plus+2 or 3. On the other hand, you have to keep the scoreboard ticking. If the best defenders can't put the ball in the hole, you're still going to end up in the minus. And sometimes, if your bench can just keep it close, that's the most you can ask.

Zubac is problematic because he doesn't even have a post game. You can't just hand him the ball and hope for some points. Ain't gonna happen. Starting him along with our top scorers maximized his utility, but Serge didn't come here to play alongside T-Mann and neither am I sure he'd be any better than Zu on the second unit. This year is proving how dependent we were on the Lou and Trezz Show, which basically made something out of nothing.

[Lou-Trezz was plus+3.3; Zu paired with our best player Kawhi was only a bit better @ plus+4.0. Lou-Zu this year is only plus+1.0. Trezz-Kawhi last year was plus+4.5.]

Imagine having Ibaka, Trez + Lou on the same roster. At 9 million for Harrell I'm sick.

Ibaka at his best can get us to a WCF. He's still a great player, and if they truly are relying on Morris on the 2nd lineup, we'll need Ibaka to consistently look like the 3rd best player in the starting lineup.

[RingColluder]

They're not wrong about Playoff P. Just go back and watch the Mavs series. It's impossible to trust this guy in any important game.

Meanwhile...

Read on Twitter

It's getting harder and harder to make the case that we wouldn't be a better team with SGA instead of Playoff P.

It's impossible to trust him in a a PRIMETIME game let alone a playoff game


Yes I totally agree. With SGA, more cap space, draft picks and Kawhi, we'd be much better off than Paul George. The definition of a regular season player.

And how do we know SGA isn't just a 'regular season player' as well? I was pissed at trading him away just as much as the next guy but he didn't have a good bubble performance either with CP3 on the team last season. He definitely has upside I still have to see him perform when the lights are bright for a team that has expectations placed on them

SGA is still 3 years from his peak. We're already 2 years from PG's best. At a different contract along with the draft picks, it's a simple decision. Kawhi should have just bought into the Clippers with the scrappy Bev, Lou, Harrell team and they could have traded for a star guard that same season at the trade deadline.

[esqtvd]

It's impossible to trust him in a a PRIMETIME game let alone a playoff game


Yes I totally agree. With SGA, more cap space, draft picks and Kawhi, we'd be much better off than Paul George. The definition of a regular season player.

And how do we know SGA isn't just a 'regular season player' as well? I was pissed at trading him away just as much as the next guy but he didn't have a good bubble performance either with CP3 on the team last season. He definitely has upside I still have to see him perform when the lights are bright for a team that has expectations placed on them

SGA is still 3 years from his peak. We're already 2 years from PG's best. At a different contract along with the draft picks, it's a simple decision. Kawhi should have just bought into the Clippers with the scrappy Bev, Lou, Harrell team and they could have traded for a star guard that same season at the trade deadline.

I was one of the few who didn't give up on Kawhi signing here as the process dragged on and I DID hope he'd come anyway. But "another superstar" was his price. Frankly, I think he's disappointed--he looks exhausted and even when PG's on, it never feels like he's taking over the game so Kawhi can hand over the reins and coast once in awhile. Which is why I don't think it's in the bag that he re-signs here.

“Obviously, if I’m healthy, the best decision is to decline the player option, but that doesn’t mean I’m leaving or staying,” Leonard said Monday, the first time this season he discussed his future. “I’m focused on the season, like I said. We’ll talk about that when the time is right.”

https://www.latimes.com/sports/clippers/story/2020-12-21/clippers-kawhi-leonard-opt-out-contract


But I also didn't think SGA would become an All-star candidate. As a PG I thought he'd top out at 15/5/7, which is very solid but not top-tier. It's been the switch to to shooting guard that has been the revelation--especially taking so much contact at the hoop at 180 lbs.

[RingColluder]

And how do we know SGA isn't just a 'regular season player' as well? I was pissed at trading him away just as much as the next guy but he didn't have a good bubble performance either with CP3 on the team last season. He definitely has upside I still have to see him perform when the lights are bright for a team that has expectations placed on them

SGA is still 3 years from his peak. We're already 2 years from PG's best. At a different contract along with the draft picks, it's a simple decision. Kawhi should have just bought into the Clippers with the scrappy Bev, Lou, Harrell team and they could have traded for a star guard that same season at the trade deadline.

I was one of the few who didn't give up on Kawhi signing here as the process dragged on and I DID hope he'd come anyway. But "another superstar" was his price. Frankly, I think he's disappointed--he looks exhausted and even when PG's on, it never feels like he's taking over the game so Kawhi can hand over the reins and coast once in awhile. Which is why I don't think it's in the bag that he re-signs here.

“Obviously, if I’m healthy, the best decision is to decline the player option, but that doesn’t mean I’m leaving or staying,” Leonard said Monday, the first time this season he discussed his future. “I’m focused on the season, like I said. We’ll talk about that when the time is right.”

https://www.latimes.com/sports/clippers/story/2020-12-21/clippers-kawhi-leonard-opt-out-contract


But I also didn't think SGA would become an All-star candidate. As a PG I thought he'd top out at 15/5/7, which is very solid but not top-tier. It's been the switch to to shooting guard that has been the revelation--especially taking so much contact at the hoop at 180 lbs.

What was his list of potential superstars? We should have traded 4 first rounders for a different player like Beal. I wouldn't be upset if he left if we lost in 7 in the 1st round. If he went to the Lakers after we lose to them in the WCF 4-2 I'd understand.

This team is bad. The Lakers have way more potential.

[esqtvd]

Today Montrez went 8-11 in 32 minutes, 6 rebounds, 3 blocks 17 points
Kuzma went 8-18 (3-6 from 3) 30 minutes 13 rebounds 24 points

I can only dream of Zu ever once hitting those numbers once in a season

Production is a tricky business. Trezz and Kuzma were also only plus+2 or 3. On the other hand, you have to keep the scoreboard ticking. If the best defenders can't put the ball in the hole, you're still going to end up in the minus. And sometimes, if your bench can just keep it close, that's the most you can ask.

Zubac is problematic because he doesn't even have a post game. You can't just hand him the ball and hope for some points. Ain't gonna happen. Starting him along with our top scorers maximized his utility, but Serge didn't come here to play alongside T-Mann and neither am I sure he'd be any better than Zu on the second unit. This year is proving how dependent we were on the Lou and Trezz Show, which basically made something out of nothing.

[Lou-Trezz was plus+3.3; Zu paired with our best player Kawhi was only a bit better @ plus+4.0. Lou-Zu this year is only plus+1.0. Trezz-Kawhi last year was plus+4.5.]

Imagine having Ibaka, Trez + Lou on the same roster. At 9 million for Harrell I'm sick.

Ibaka at his best can get us to a WCF. He's still a great player, and if they truly are relying on Morris on the 2nd lineup, we'll need Ibaka to consistently look like the 3rd best player in the starting lineup.

I certainly agree that to ignore Trezz's personal troubles last year in the bubble is BS. He had just put up 18 ppg to win 6MOY and he also put up 18ppg in the playoffs the year before. That said, he is a far from perfect player and does leak points. I'd leave it at Zubac not being as valuable as he seemed, and that Trezz was a great overachieving value at the $6M we paid him.

But for chemistry reasons this season, I do think he had to go. And the first unit is better with Ibaka than Zubac. The rest needs to be sorted out, and a stronger contribution from Marcus would go a very long way to rounding things out. We cannot expect Lou to keep playing at this level--and this many minutes--through June.

[og15]

This team isn't very good lol, that's just my opinion from watching every single game this entire season.

Obviously a fully healthy team (which seems impossible now w Bev's constant injuries) gives us at least a 25% to compete with most any team, but again the trash play of PG in the playoffs rearing it's ugly head EVERY SINGLE POSTSEASON the last 3 or so years is the main deterrent from me having confidence in us moving forward.


This is still the best I've seen PG's 3 point shot look as a Clipper, but every time he plays in a primetime game disaster strikes in his mindset and wanting to, "be the man".


You really feel confident in this team in a round 1 series vs the Trailblazers, Nuggest, or Mavericks? This team is worse than last year's team and it isn't even very close.

We'll be relying on Ibaka to play like he did last night, Morris as well, Lou to be hot consistently, and then one of Batum/Bev/Reggie/Kennard to pick up the slack spotting up. A strong PG would solve a lot of our problems.

Not happening but watching the Pacers/Lakers game, some sort of Brogdon and Sabonis (not happening probably) for PG and ... idk maybe Ibaka or Morris plus filler would be ideal for the team.

Kawhi obviously is the main factor in us doing anything, and the best player in the NBA as far as I'm concerned.

Why would I not feel confident in the team against the Blazers or Mavericks? The Mavericks are a bad defense (worse than last season), have regressed on offense (their bench shooters/scorers killed the Clippers), and KP is out every other day. The Blazers don't have any forwards or bigs to really punish the Clippers (without getting lit up, eg: Kanter) and are an absolutely trash defense, but that can certainly change depending on how Nurkic returns.

The Nuggets beat the Clippers last year and are the 5th seed after a slow start, with a 5.22 SRS (Clippers 5.67) and just two games behind the Clippers. Jokic is playing like an MVP averaging 27/11/9. Their defense which people were worried about with the loss of Grant and Craig has picked up and is about as good as it was last year (average defense). The Clippers so far are a similar defense (average) and a better offense due to 3PT shooting, but don't have a dynamic playmaker among their stars like the Nuggets have with Jokic, and even Murray if we look past just apg is a better playmaker than both Kawhi and George, or at worst, just as good. In a series, based on current play the Clippers would have to rely on their 3PT shooting holding up over the series, or being better defensively.

So yea, I haven no irrational confidence that the Clippers would just beat the Nuggets, but that doesn't change with last seasons team. In fact, Harrell the main difference from last season to now doesn't match up well vs the Nuggets. Zubac actually ends up being the best big vs the Nuggets based on last season, and that is a lot to do with his size. In game 5 he was one of only two players who the team was + when they were on the court, the other was Williams, and Zubac played 11 more minutes than Williams and was the only + player in the second half. In game 6 he was the only player who the team was + for his total minutes on the court, but that primarily came from the first half.

No big trade is happening. Paul George signed an extension in December, a player can't be traded until 6 months after signing an extension. PG is not eligible to be traded until June, so until the off-season. If he was, we would have seen the Clippers look into trading him for Harden in order to get a top level playmaker among their stars, but there's a reason the Clippers weren't even mentioned in relation to Harden, it wasn't possible.

Luka Doncic is a better player than PG. Dame Lillard is a better player than PG.

You're telling me to believe in Kawhi Leonard to outperform McCollum and Lillard, or Luka/Porzingis while dealing with PG's inconsistent shooting games for 7 brutal games. The team has little depth, it's very difficult to see that at the current roster.

You say rely on 3pt shooting, I question wide open Batum, Bev, Kennard, Reggie shots for a 7 game series. I have zero confidence for 7 games. Maybe 1 or 2.

No more Montrez talk, he had personal issues, if you don't believe that hindered his bubble game we disagree.

We won't make it past the 2nd round without a trade. There are plenty of big men who are going to end up getting released. We need to sign someone in FA who gets released soon. I can't emphasize enough how badly a trade is needed to have a chance to even play the Lakers in the WCF.


I also don't believe a 7 game series loss against the Lakers is serviceable. Last season, we would have beaten the Lakers in 5-6 games in a series. Now, I'm unsure.

Well Kawhi won't have to beat them by himself, since PG isn't expexted to give zero production for the series, lol.

PG doesn't need to be better than the Lillard and Doncic, Kawhi does. PG needs to be better than or equal to McCollum and Porzingis. There's no scenario where Kawhi is going to have to outperform two stars in 4/7 games for the team to win, that isn't even what happened last season. PG still had good games, he was decent to good overall in 5/7 games vs Denver. Kawhi was trash in game 7 too, soo...

Dallas was a complete outlier, there's no other series in his career where he was basically trash on offense for 60% of the games, so citing that as the expectation is not realistic.

You're able to say that Harrell had issues (he did), but not acknowledge that while PG had different issues, he had issues too. I've done the deep dive on his production in the playoffs. Does he have consistency issues compared to the highest level stars, yes, but not compared to the 2nd tier stars. Was his playoff performance last season his normal inconsistency? Not even close, he had the vast majority of his low scoring and poor shooting playof games since becoming a star last season.

So while PG does have playoff consistency issues compared to someone like Kawhi, last season was by all definitions and with any resonableness an outlier for him in terms of how inconsistent he was and how many really bad games he had. To call that the norm or to expect that again doesn't make sense.

No team is going to have their role players knock down their shots every single game. Denver is also helped by the 3PT accuracy, they are 6th in percentage, but both Denver and LAC are average in 3PA, they are between 0.1 of each other in 3PA, so of course they have the same concern, but they both aren't heavily reliant on it.

[esqtvd]

Looks like PG needs some friends around here...

[og15]

Today Montrez went 8-11 in 32 minutes, 6 rebounds, 3 blocks 17 points
Kuzma went 8-18 (3-6 from 3) 30 minutes 13 rebounds 24 points

I can only dream of Zu ever once hitting those numbers once in a season

Zubac had 22/8 in the win vs Miami without Kawhi and George, but this is not his role or his skillset. The Lakers have Lebron and despite Kuzma and Harrell being able to score, they are 4-7 from the game Davis went down and on. So it's not really working out so great.

Since Davis went down, Harrell is averaging a solid 15/7, but Vogel isn't confident playing him more, and he's only at 22.9 mpg. Lakers offense when he is on is at a poor 106.9 Ortg, which is not his "fault", Harrell is a finisher, he's not a playmaker, so he's not going to be the driving force of an offensive group.

Teams have player with roles, that's how things function, not everyone is a scorer, if that is the case, it becomes a problem. We look at a guy like Drummond who has never been an All-Star and his impact is always worse than his stats. One of his problems is that he wants to be an offensive player and wants to score more when he shouldn't. If he focused on just defense, boxing out and rebounding and limited himself to a roll man and finisher on offense, he would actually have MORE impact than when he tries to be a shot creator and scorer.

Zubac doesn't need to have post moves or any bag of tricks on offense. Would it be great if he did? Of course, but that would mean he's not a $7 million player. He's a finishing C whose primary role is rebounding and defense. He's generally your 4th or 5th option when on the floor. Every team not only has, but needs these types of players.

A team looking for size, rim protection and rebounding is not going so sign Harrell, but will look at a guy like Zubac. A team that needs a PF/C and bench scoring and a more potent roll man is not going to sign Zubac.

Zubac is problematic because he doesn't even have a post game. You can't just hand him the ball and hope for some points. Ain't gonna happen. Starting him along with our top scorers maximized his utility, but Serge didn't come here to play alongside T-Mann and neither am I sure he'd be any better than Zu on the second unit. This year is proving how dependent we were on the Lou and Trezz Show, which basically made something out of nothing.

[Lou-Trezz was plus+3.3; Zu paired with our best player Kawhi was only a bit better @ plus+4.0. Lou-Zu this year is only plus+1.0. Trezz-Kawhi last year was plus+4.5.]

I wouldn't say "problematic", because his role is not to be a scorer, if it was, then yes, but he's at best the 4th option with the bench, only Mann is below him. Zubac is not problematic because he doesn't have a post game, he's not paid to have a post game, the lineups he's put in aren't set up to utilize a post game from him. +/- is overall outcome, it's not simply talking about offense.

The "main" 3 man bench lineups this season vs last season:

20-21:
Williams/Morris/Zubac: 110.6 Ortg / 111.6 Drtg / -1.0 NetRtg

19-20:
Williams/Harrell/Green: 110.7 Ortg / 104.5 Drtg / +6.2 NetRtg

So there's no appreciable offensive result difference, the difference is from defense. Not too surprising, Kennard is a poor defender, Jackson is below average at best, and there's no player like J.Green on the current roster off the bench to help them defensively. Defense of course is also affected by game plan and strategy, so one could argue that as factor too beyond personnel. If you look at that same Williams/Morris/Zubac combo from February 5th after Lue shook up the rotations a bit, they are 110.8 Ortg / 108.7 Drtg /+2.1 NetRtg.

Mann was a later addition to the bench unit, so if we look at 4 man lineups:

20-21
Williams/Mann/Morris/Zubac: 114.6 Ortg / 114.9 Drtg / -0.3 NetRtg (148 minutes).

19-20:
Williams/Shamet/Green/Harrell: 112.4 Ortg / 106.1 Drtg / +6.3 NetRtg (288 mins)

So despite all this defaulting to offensive production as the problem (which is what people almost always default to, so I understand), the difference in effectiveness of these lineups is actually on the defensive end. So Zubac's lack of offensive moves is not hampering them in actual results on the offensive end. Offensively, that unit has actually better than last season's main 4 man bench unit with Lou+Harrell, but defensively they are worse, though they are essentially a net zero lineup as -0.3 is not statistically significant away from zero.

If we look at bench lineups with Paul George (who has been the go to guy for Lue with the bench when healthy), the 4 man lineup of Williams/George/Morris/Zubac, 107.3 Ortg / 100.0 Drtg (148 mins). So while they have issues with offensive production in their 148 minutes, they have had much more balanced production and are a +7.3 pts/100 lineup. That's a promising lineup for a coaching staff, because then you can look at staggering to produce multiple effective lineups.

The one with Leonard is actually even stronger:

20-21:
Williams/Leonard/Morris/Zubac: 113.4 Ortg / 99.6 Drtg / +13.8 NetRtg (113 mins)

Similar to last season...

19-20:
Williams/Leonard/Green/Harrell: 114.8 Ortg / 98.5 Drtg / +16.3 NetRtg (210 mins)

So what is needed is to find the best effective lineup that includes the starters + one of the bench guards and either no George or no Kawhi. Kennard in place of Kawhi in the starting lineup has been used for 35 minutes over 3 games and was bad, small sample size, and opponents could be a factor, but not promising in it's little use. Jackson and Kennard in place of Beverley and George has been used in 6 games for 34 minutes total and has been very strong (114.5 Ortg / 102.9 Drtg / +11.2 NetRtg), but with Beverley instead of Jackson, it has been similarly awful to the George one in 33 minutes through 7 games. So the Jackson/Kennard/Leonard/Batum/Ibaka could simply be an outlier.

Conclusion / TL;DR - Defense is the difference, not offense, Zubac's lack of post moves has no impact on offensive result
Anyways, all that to conclude, offense is not the problem with the lineups with Zubac or with the Lou/Zubac combo. The units they have had around them have actually outproduced last seasons Lou + Harrell combo and the units around them offensively, it's the defense that is the issue. Consistently with 2, 3, 4 man combo's, we see that the lineups around Lou/Zu have been VERY good offensively, their offense only doesn't look good enough because the lineups have given up a lot of points. Lou/Zu though has still been a positive combination.

Lou + Zubac: 113.5 Ortg / 110.6 Drtg / +2.5 NetRtg (539 mins)
Lou + Harrell: 111.4 Ortg /106.1 Drtg / +5.1 NetRtg (1388 mins)

Post Feb 5th Lineup shuffle:

Lou + Zubac: 114.7 Ortg / 109.2 Drtg / +5.5 NetRtg (239 mins)

So let's critique the correct things . That combination since the lineup changes has actually been very slightly (not statistically significant) better than the Lou+Harrell combo last season in overall production/possession. Lou/Harrell were already a working combo for a season before last, so even if the lineups were equal around them, it would be expected that Lou/Zu would not be as good right away anyways.

[esqtvd]

Today Montrez went 8-11 in 32 minutes, 6 rebounds, 3 blocks 17 points
Kuzma went 8-18 (3-6 from 3) 30 minutes 13 rebounds 24 points

I can only dream of Zu ever once hitting those numbers once in a season

Zubac had 22/8 in the win vs Miami without Kawhi and George, but this is not his role or his skillset. The Lakers have Lebron and despite Kuzma and Harrell being able to score, they are 4-7 from the game Davis went down and on. So it's not really working out so great.

Since Davis went down, Harrell is averaging a solid 15/7, but Vogel isn't confident playing him more, and he's only at 22.9 mpg. Lakers offense when he is on is at a poor 106.9 Ortg, which is not his "fault", Harrell is a finisher, he's not a playmaker, so he's not going to be the driving force of an offensive group.

Teams have player with roles, that's how things function, not everyone is a scorer, if that is the case, it becomes a problem. We look at a guy like Drummond who has never been an All-Star and his impact is always worse than his stats. One of his problems is that he wants to be an offensive player and wants to score more when he shouldn't. If he focused on just defense, boxing out and rebounding and limited himself to a roll man and finisher on offense, he would actually have MORE impact than when he tries to be a shot creator and scorer.

Zubac doesn't need to have post moves or any bag of tricks on offense. Would it be great if he did? Of course, but that would mean he's not a $7 million player. He's a finishing C whose primary role is rebounding and defense. He's generally your 4th or 5th option when on the floor. Every team not only has, but needs these types of players.

A team looking for size, rim protection and rebounding is not going so sign Harrell, but will look at a guy like Zubac. A team that needs a PF/C and bench scoring and a more potent roll man is not going to sign Zubac.

Zubac is problematic because he doesn't even have a post game. You can't just hand him the ball and hope for some points. Ain't gonna happen. Starting him along with our top scorers maximized his utility, but Serge didn't come here to play alongside T-Mann and neither am I sure he'd be any better than Zu on the second unit. This year is proving how dependent we were on the Lou and Trezz Show, which basically made something out of nothing.

[Lou-Trezz was plus+3.3; Zu paired with our best player Kawhi was only a bit better @ plus+4.0. Lou-Zu this year is only plus+1.0. Trezz-Kawhi last year was plus+4.5.]

I wouldn't say "problematic", because his role is not to be a scorer, if it was, then yes, but he's at best the 4th option with the bench, only Mann is below him. Zubac is not problematic because he doesn't have a post game, he's not paid to have a post game, the lineups he's put in aren't set up to utilize a post game from him. +/- is overall outcome, it's not simply talking about offense.

The "main" 3 man bench lineups this season vs last season:

20-21:
Williams/Morris/Zubac: 110.6 Ortg / 111.6 Drtg / -1.0 NetRtg

19-20:
Williams/Harrell/Green: 110.7 Ortg / 104.5 Drtg / +6.2 NetRtg

So there's no appreciable offensive result difference, the difference is from defense. Not too surprising, Kennard is a poor defender, Jackson is below average at best, and there's no player like J.Green on the current roster off the bench to help them defensively. Defense of course is also affected by game plan and strategy, so one could argue that as factor too beyond personnel. If you look at that same Williams/Morris/Zubac combo from February 5th after Lue shook up the rotations a bit, they are 110.8 Ortg / 108.7 Drtg /+2.1 NetRtg.

Mann was a later addition to the bench unit, so if we look at 4 man lineups:

20-21
Williams/Mann/Morris/Zubac: 114.6 Ortg / 114.9 Drtg / -0.3 NetRtg (148 minutes).

19-20:
Williams/Shamet/Green/Harrell: 112.4 Ortg / 106.1 Drtg / +6.3 NetRtg (288 mins)

So despite all this defaulting to offensive production as the problem (which is what people almost always default to, so I understand), the difference in effectiveness of these lineups is actually on the defensive end. So Zubac's lack of offensive moves is not hampering them in actual results on the offensive end. Offensively, that unit has actually better than last season's main 4 man bench unit with Lou+Harrell, but defensively they are worse, though they are essentially a net zero lineup as -0.3 is not statistically significant away from zero.

If we look at bench lineups with Paul George (who has been the go to guy for Lue with the bench when healthy), the 4 man lineup of Williams/George/Morris/Zubac, 107.3 Ortg / 100.0 Drtg (148 mins). So while they have issues with offensive production in their 148 minutes, they have had much more balanced production and are a +7.3 pts/100 lineup. That's a promising lineup for a coaching staff, because then you can look at staggering to produce multiple effective lineups.

The one with Leonard is actually even stronger:

20-21:
Williams/Leonard/Morris/Zubac: 113.4 Ortg / 99.6 Drtg / +13.8 NetRtg (113 mins)

Similar to last season...

19-20:
Williams/Leonard/Green/Harrell: 114.8 Ortg / 98.5 Drtg / +16.3 NetRtg (210 mins)

So what is needed is to find the best effective lineup that includes the starters + one of the bench guards and either no George or no Kawhi. Kennard in place of Kawhi in the starting lineup has been used for 35 minutes over 3 games and was bad, small sample size, and opponents could be a factor, but not promising in it's little use. Jackson and Kennard in place of Beverley and George has been used in 6 games for 34 minutes total and has been very strong (114.5 Ortg / 102.9 Drtg / +11.2 NetRtg), but with Beverley instead of Jackson, it has been similarly awful to the George one in 33 minutes through 7 games. So the Jackson/Kennard/Leonard/Batum/Ibaka could simply be an outlier.

Conclusion / TL;DR - Defense is the difference, not offense, Zubac's lack of post moves has no impact on offensive result
Anyways, all that to conclude, offense is not the problem with the lineups with Zubac or with the Lou/Zubac combo. The units they have had around them have actually outproduced last seasons Lou + Harrell combo and the units around them offensively, it's the defense that is the issue. Consistently with 2, 3, 4 man combo's, we see that the lineups around Lou/Zu have been VERY good offensively, their offense only doesn't look good enough because the lineups have given up a lot of points. Lou/Zu though has still been a positive combination.

Lou + Zubac: 113.5 Ortg / 110.6 Drtg / +2.5 NetRtg (539 mins)
Lou + Harrell: 111.4 Ortg /106.1 Drtg / +5.1 NetRtg (1388 mins)

Post Feb 5th Lineup shuffle:

Lou + Zubac: 114.7 Ortg / 109.2 Drtg / +5.5 NetRtg (239 mins)

So let's critique the correct things . That combination since the lineup changes has actually been very slightly (not statistically significant) better than the Lou+Harrell combo last season in overall production/possession. Lou/Harrell were already a working combo for a season before last, so even if the lineups were equal around them, it would be expected that Lou/Zu would not be as good right away anyways.

Glad you're using stats based on recent stretches of games--full-season stats often conceal more than they reveal. I'm not sure where you're getting the offensive/defensive rating stats but I've often found them a bit iffy regardless of source. And when I set the filters, I disregard any combinations not already used in at least 6-10 games--usually they were employed in a laugher when Coach was just screwing around.


But taking your figures at face value, your major conclusion

Conclusion / TL;DR - Defense is the difference, not offense, Zubac's lack of post moves has no impact on offensive result


could be turned around decisively against the prevailing narrative--that means Trezz is no worse a defender than Zubac and since Zubac is nowhere as potent a scorer as Trezz, he is clearly the inferior player. All that garbage we were subjected to last year about Zu over Trezz is provable nonsense.

These previously posted figures tend to confirm yours: Lou-Trezz was plus+3.3; Zu paired with our best player Kawhi was only a bit better @ plus+4.0. Lou-Zu this year is only plus+1.0. Trezz-Kawhi last year was plus+4.5.

The improvement in your Lou-Zu figure recently could mostly be attributed to Lou, but I'm not going to look a gift horse in the mouth. But if you do a dig on Marcus, it's still not very pretty. Wherever Marcus pops up in your stats, he makes us miss JaMychal Green. WTF. At 34, with no defined role and his head on the chopping block either now or at the end of the season, putting it on Lou is unfair and unrealistic. Besides us relying on KL and PG to be playoff gods, I still think it's up to Marcus.


[As for Zu's lack of post moves or anything else--you can't throw a complete offensive stiff out there and not have it drag the production of the whole unit. But you can squeeze 8 ppg out of just about any big with a pulse. I think if Zu stays aggressive with the garbage cleanups, it'll approximate what 6'7" Trezz does on desire alone. That's why Lou is on Zu's ass giving speeches during every timeout. You saw the video, yes?]

[NickP]

^^ Maybe Lou should look in the mirror before the playoffs and get on his own ass about playing some god damn defense.
Also get on his own ass for committing turnovers, lack of defense and blowing 3 layups in a row in the playoffs with the game on the line. I'm tired of idiotic arguments like PG having bad playoffs. PG had some really good games which IDIOT DOC couldn't capitalize on.
No one else stepped up when it mattered. And all this mad love for Trez should be taken over to the Lakers board. He could definitely use it. Vogel has quickly learnt not to use Trez in crunch time due to his atrocious defense.
All this plus and minus talk is nonsense. The only stats that matter will be the ones in these upcoming playoffs.

[Captain Ballmer]

They're not wrong about Playoff P. Just go back and watch the Mavs series. It's impossible to trust this guy in any important game.

Meanwhile...

Read on Twitter

It's getting harder and harder to make the case that we wouldn't be a better team with SGA instead of Playoff P.

Dude, stop. Not even Presti expected the kind of development SGA showed to happen THIS FAST. I remember most of us just expecting a starter level contributions. "If he ever becomes an 18-5-5 player that would be a steal" was the most common thought around here in his rookie year.
It's about Shai, a cringe starter rookie on a playoff team just became a player to comparable with a perennial all-star in just 18 months Huge probs to Shai for his succession.

[Clemenza]

^^ Maybe Lou should look in the mirror before the playoffs and get on his own ass about playing some god damn defense.
Also get on his own ass for committing turnovers, lack of defense and blowing 3 layups in a row in the playoffs with the game on the line. I'm tired of idiotic arguments like PG having bad playoffs. PG had some really good games which IDIOT DOC couldn't capitalize on.
No one else stepped up when it mattered. And all this mad love for Trez should be taken over to the Lakers board. He could definitely use it. Vogel has quickly learnt not to use Trez in crunch time due to his atrocious defense.
All this plus and minus talk is nonsense. The only stats that matter will be the ones in these upcoming playoffs.

Its starting to feel like people around here want these dudes to lose just to be on some "I told you so" sh*t. They're going to be more upset if we win than lose because they've boxed themselves in so deep with their narratives of the players they hate and the scenarios they foresee happening that them actually playing well or god forbid winning is unfathomable. Sh*t is so bad around here that I'm thinking of starting up a "Hate Thread" just so everybody can do their spiel and shtick about how everybody sucks and undo all the trades, signees and so forth until everybody's heart is content. That bubble disaster ruined everything straight up.. So much I wish the season would've stayed canceled. We're still in the fallout of the 3-1 choke til this very day. Probably always will be, who knows.

[og15]

Today Montrez went 8-11 in 32 minutes, 6 rebounds, 3 blocks 17 points
Kuzma went 8-18 (3-6 from 3) 30 minutes 13 rebounds 24 points

I can only dream of Zu ever once hitting those numbers once in a season

Zubac had 22/8 in the win vs Miami without Kawhi and George, but this is not his role or his skillset. The Lakers have Lebron and despite Kuzma and Harrell being able to score, they are 4-7 from the game Davis went down and on. So it's not really working out so great.

Since Davis went down, Harrell is averaging a solid 15/7, but Vogel isn't confident playing him more, and he's only at 22.9 mpg. Lakers offense when he is on is at a poor 106.9 Ortg, which is not his "fault", Harrell is a finisher, he's not a playmaker, so he's not going to be the driving force of an offensive group.

Teams have player with roles, that's how things function, not everyone is a scorer, if that is the case, it becomes a problem. We look at a guy like Drummond who has never been an All-Star and his impact is always worse than his stats. One of his problems is that he wants to be an offensive player and wants to score more when he shouldn't. If he focused on just defense, boxing out and rebounding and limited himself to a roll man and finisher on offense, he would actually have MORE impact than when he tries to be a shot creator and scorer.

Zubac doesn't need to have post moves or any bag of tricks on offense. Would it be great if he did? Of course, but that would mean he's not a $7 million player. He's a finishing C whose primary role is rebounding and defense. He's generally your 4th or 5th option when on the floor. Every team not only has, but needs these types of players.

A team looking for size, rim protection and rebounding is not going so sign Harrell, but will look at a guy like Zubac. A team that needs a PF/C and bench scoring and a more potent roll man is not going to sign Zubac.

Zubac is problematic because he doesn't even have a post game. You can't just hand him the ball and hope for some points. Ain't gonna happen. Starting him along with our top scorers maximized his utility, but Serge didn't come here to play alongside T-Mann and neither am I sure he'd be any better than Zu on the second unit. This year is proving how dependent we were on the Lou and Trezz Show, which basically made something out of nothing.

[Lou-Trezz was plus+3.3; Zu paired with our best player Kawhi was only a bit better @ plus+4.0. Lou-Zu this year is only plus+1.0. Trezz-Kawhi last year was plus+4.5.]

I wouldn't say "problematic", because his role is not to be a scorer, if it was, then yes, but he's at best the 4th option with the bench, only Mann is below him. Zubac is not problematic because he doesn't have a post game, he's not paid to have a post game, the lineups he's put in aren't set up to utilize a post game from him. +/- is overall outcome, it's not simply talking about offense.

The "main" 3 man bench lineups this season vs last season:

20-21:
Williams/Morris/Zubac: 110.6 Ortg / 111.6 Drtg / -1.0 NetRtg

19-20:
Williams/Harrell/Green: 110.7 Ortg / 104.5 Drtg / +6.2 NetRtg

So there's no appreciable offensive result difference, the difference is from defense. Not too surprising, Kennard is a poor defender, Jackson is below average at best, and there's no player like J.Green on the current roster off the bench to help them defensively. Defense of course is also affected by game plan and strategy, so one could argue that as factor too beyond personnel. If you look at that same Williams/Morris/Zubac combo from February 5th after Lue shook up the rotations a bit, they are 110.8 Ortg / 108.7 Drtg /+2.1 NetRtg.

Mann was a later addition to the bench unit, so if we look at 4 man lineups:

20-21
Williams/Mann/Morris/Zubac: 114.6 Ortg / 114.9 Drtg / -0.3 NetRtg (148 minutes).

19-20:
Williams/Shamet/Green/Harrell: 112.4 Ortg / 106.1 Drtg / +6.3 NetRtg (288 mins)

So despite all this defaulting to offensive production as the problem (which is what people almost always default to, so I understand), the difference in effectiveness of these lineups is actually on the defensive end. So Zubac's lack of offensive moves is not hampering them in actual results on the offensive end. Offensively, that unit has actually better than last season's main 4 man bench unit with Lou+Harrell, but defensively they are worse, though they are essentially a net zero lineup as -0.3 is not statistically significant away from zero.

If we look at bench lineups with Paul George (who has been the go to guy for Lue with the bench when healthy), the 4 man lineup of Williams/George/Morris/Zubac, 107.3 Ortg / 100.0 Drtg (148 mins). So while they have issues with offensive production in their 148 minutes, they have had much more balanced production and are a +7.3 pts/100 lineup. That's a promising lineup for a coaching staff, because then you can look at staggering to produce multiple effective lineups.

The one with Leonard is actually even stronger:

20-21:
Williams/Leonard/Morris/Zubac: 113.4 Ortg / 99.6 Drtg / +13.8 NetRtg (113 mins)

Similar to last season...

19-20:
Williams/Leonard/Green/Harrell: 114.8 Ortg / 98.5 Drtg / +16.3 NetRtg (210 mins)

So what is needed is to find the best effective lineup that includes the starters + one of the bench guards and either no George or no Kawhi. Kennard in place of Kawhi in the starting lineup has been used for 35 minutes over 3 games and was bad, small sample size, and opponents could be a factor, but not promising in it's little use. Jackson and Kennard in place of Beverley and George has been used in 6 games for 34 minutes total and has been very strong (114.5 Ortg / 102.9 Drtg / +11.2 NetRtg), but with Beverley instead of Jackson, it has been similarly awful to the George one in 33 minutes through 7 games. So the Jackson/Kennard/Leonard/Batum/Ibaka could simply be an outlier.

Conclusion / TL;DR - Defense is the difference, not offense, Zubac's lack of post moves has no impact on offensive result
Anyways, all that to conclude, offense is not the problem with the lineups with Zubac or with the Lou/Zubac combo. The units they have had around them have actually outproduced last seasons Lou + Harrell combo and the units around them offensively, it's the defense that is the issue. Consistently with 2, 3, 4 man combo's, we see that the lineups around Lou/Zu have been VERY good offensively, their offense only doesn't look good enough because the lineups have given up a lot of points. Lou/Zu though has still been a positive combination.

Lou + Zubac: 113.5 Ortg / 110.6 Drtg / +2.5 NetRtg (539 mins)
Lou + Harrell: 111.4 Ortg /106.1 Drtg / +5.1 NetRtg (1388 mins)

Post Feb 5th Lineup shuffle:

Lou + Zubac: 114.7 Ortg / 109.2 Drtg / +5.5 NetRtg (239 mins)

So let's critique the correct things . That combination since the lineup changes has actually been very slightly (not statistically significant) better than the Lou+Harrell combo last season in overall production/possession. Lou/Harrell were already a working combo for a season before last, so even if the lineups were equal around them, it would be expected that Lou/Zu would not be as good right away anyways.

Glad you're using stats based on recent stretches of games--full-season stats often conceal more than they reveal. I'm not sure where you're getting the offensive/defensive rating stats but I've often found them a bit iffy regardless of source.

But taking them at face value, your major conclusion could be turned around decisively against the prevailing narrative--Trezz is no worse a defender than Zubac and since Zubac is nowhere as potent a scorer as Trezz, he is clearly the inferior player. All that garbage we were subjected to last year about Zu over Trezz is provable nonsense.

These previously posted figures tend to confirm yours: Lou-Trezz was plus+3.3; Zu paired with our best player Kawhi was only a bit better @ plus+4.0. Lou-Zu this year is only plus+1.0. Trezz-Kawhi last year was plus+4.5.

The improvement in your Lou-Zu figure recently could mostly be attributed to Lou, but I'm not going to look a gift horse in the mouth. But if you do a dig on Marcus, it's still not very pretty. Besides us relying on KL and PG to be playoff gods, I still think it's up to Marcus. At 34, with no defined role and his head on the chopping block either now or at the end of the season, putting it on Lou is unrealistic.

Sorry, never responded to this, other priorities

Those are from NBA.com. Lineup data (change from traditional to advanced): https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/

The reason I don't use simple +/- and use per possession is that simple +/- is not an accurate comparison if the average minutes of the lineups are different. At the minimum you would need to adjust it for minutes to make it an accurate comparison, but then that's not taking into account pace. If you are constantly +1 every 10 possessions, you will be +10 in 100 possessions, but only +9 in 90 possessions, while still being just as good. For example, if a combination is consistently +2 in 8 mins of play, but you compare them to a combination that is consistently +4, but in 16 mins of play, the +/- suggests that the second combination is "better", but they aren't "better", they just play more minutes. Per minute, both combinations are outproducing their opponents at the same rate. Per 100 possessions takes away the impact of minutes played and pace.

For example, 20-21 Zubac + Kawhi (10.9 mpg / +2.1) compared to 19-20 Harrell + Kawhi (14.6 mpg / +4.5), if you compare like that, it's an inaccurate comparison, because a consistently positive lineup will only have it's + increase the more minutes they play together. Now, we can see that the Kawhi/Harrell lineup will still be better, but the simple +/- says they are more than twice as positive, but is that true? A lineup that plays 7 mpg will not have the same +/- as an equally strong lineup that plays 14 mpg, if they (the 7 mpg lineup) did, then they are a BETTER lineup, not equal. The 14 mpg lineup should have double the +/- to be equal.

This is why we use per 100 possessions (which is just per possession, but x100 gives a larger and more easily comparable number instead of something like +0.014 type numbers). So if you normalize for minutes, yes, the Harrell + Kawhi combo was better, but not +2.4 better. At the same rate, Zubac + Kawhi this season would be +2.8 in 14.6 mpg, so we're not looking at a difference of +1.7, not +2.4, but that doesn't account for pace, and that's difficult to start calculating, hence, use per 100 possessions. Now, pace isn't generally as big of a deal when comparing on the same team in the same year, it is unlikely that pace would be different enough among lineups (possible though). This is just to do it for the exercise sake.

So those combo's per 100 possessions:
19-20 Harrell + Leonard: 116.5 Ortg / 102.0 Drtg / +14.4 pts/100
20-21 Zubac + Leonard: 114.7 Ortg / 106.0 Drtg / +8.7 pts/100

This is the most accurate comparison, of course it is still showing us that the Leonard/Harrell combination is better, but it is giving us a better comparison of "how much" better. If you want to get an idea of something similar to the minutes, you can easily do it per 30 possessions, which is approximately the average amount of possessions in around 14 mpg. That will give a comparison of +4.3 (Harrell/Leonard) to +2.6, so at around 14 mpg, the difference is around 1.7 (pace didn't change much) vs the initial 2.4 "raw" difference.

Now you can start to ask, "who else is with them in those lineups", and that's obviously a different question, Zubac this season is not used in the same lineup combinations as Harrell was, sure, that's of course the analysis part of it.

I said it last season, they have different strengths and weaknesses and that lineups with Harrell were better defensively overall, but of course things are also situational and matchups become a factor. I have never claimed that one or the other is better in a vacuum, they have their strengths and weaknesses and can be better for a team based on need and situation.
viewtopic.php?f=18&t=1921800&p=80506287#p80506131
viewtopic.php?f=18&t=1941552&p=81858576#p81857403

From Feb 5th until this game, Zubac averaged 9.1 ppg / 7.8 rpg / 67.4% FG / 20.5 mpg / 16 games (compared to 7.6 ppg / 6.3 rpg / 64.6% FG / 19.2 mpg in the previous 23 games). So his play was also up in basically identical minutes, but of course Lou going from playing poorly to playing well helps the lineups, that's a given. If Lou averaged 9.4 ppg / 3.0 apg / 39% FG / 38% 3PT in 19.9 mpg last season like he did for his first 21 games this season, the lineups he was playing with would also have been worse regardless of how the other guys around him played.

[esqtvd]

Zubac had 22/8 in the win vs Miami without Kawhi and George, but this is not his role or his skillset. The Lakers have Lebron and despite Kuzma and Harrell being able to score, they are 4-7 from the game Davis went down and on. So it's not really working out so great.

Since Davis went down, Harrell is averaging a solid 15/7, but Vogel isn't confident playing him more, and he's only at 22.9 mpg. Lakers offense when he is on is at a poor 106.9 Ortg, which is not his "fault", Harrell is a finisher, he's not a playmaker, so he's not going to be the driving force of an offensive group.

Teams have player with roles, that's how things function, not everyone is a scorer, if that is the case, it becomes a problem. We look at a guy like Drummond who has never been an All-Star and his impact is always worse than his stats. One of his problems is that he wants to be an offensive player and wants to score more when he shouldn't. If he focused on just defense, boxing out and rebounding and limited himself to a roll man and finisher on offense, he would actually have MORE impact than when he tries to be a shot creator and scorer.

Zubac doesn't need to have post moves or any bag of tricks on offense. Would it be great if he did? Of course, but that would mean he's not a $7 million player. He's a finishing C whose primary role is rebounding and defense. He's generally your 4th or 5th option when on the floor. Every team not only has, but needs these types of players.

A team looking for size, rim protection and rebounding is not going so sign Harrell, but will look at a guy like Zubac. A team that needs a PF/C and bench scoring and a more potent roll man is not going to sign Zubac.



I wouldn't say "problematic", because his role is not to be a scorer, if it was, then yes, but he's at best the 4th option with the bench, only Mann is below him. Zubac is not problematic because he doesn't have a post game, he's not paid to have a post game, the lineups he's put in aren't set up to utilize a post game from him. +/- is overall outcome, it's not simply talking about offense.

The "main" 3 man bench lineups this season vs last season:

20-21:
Williams/Morris/Zubac: 110.6 Ortg / 111.6 Drtg / -1.0 NetRtg

19-20:
Williams/Harrell/Green: 110.7 Ortg / 104.5 Drtg / +6.2 NetRtg

So there's no appreciable offensive result difference, the difference is from defense. Not too surprising, Kennard is a poor defender, Jackson is below average at best, and there's no player like J.Green on the current roster off the bench to help them defensively. Defense of course is also affected by game plan and strategy, so one could argue that as factor too beyond personnel. If you look at that same Williams/Morris/Zubac combo from February 5th after Lue shook up the rotations a bit, they are 110.8 Ortg / 108.7 Drtg /+2.1 NetRtg.

Mann was a later addition to the bench unit, so if we look at 4 man lineups:

20-21
Williams/Mann/Morris/Zubac: 114.6 Ortg / 114.9 Drtg / -0.3 NetRtg (148 minutes).

19-20:
Williams/Shamet/Green/Harrell: 112.4 Ortg / 106.1 Drtg / +6.3 NetRtg (288 mins)

So despite all this defaulting to offensive production as the problem (which is what people almost always default to, so I understand), the difference in effectiveness of these lineups is actually on the defensive end. So Zubac's lack of offensive moves is not hampering them in actual results on the offensive end. Offensively, that unit has actually better than last season's main 4 man bench unit with Lou+Harrell, but defensively they are worse, though they are essentially a net zero lineup as -0.3 is not statistically significant away from zero.

If we look at bench lineups with Paul George (who has been the go to guy for Lue with the bench when healthy), the 4 man lineup of Williams/George/Morris/Zubac, 107.3 Ortg / 100.0 Drtg (148 mins). So while they have issues with offensive production in their 148 minutes, they have had much more balanced production and are a +7.3 pts/100 lineup. That's a promising lineup for a coaching staff, because then you can look at staggering to produce multiple effective lineups.

The one with Leonard is actually even stronger:

20-21:
Williams/Leonard/Morris/Zubac: 113.4 Ortg / 99.6 Drtg / +13.8 NetRtg (113 mins)

Similar to last season...

19-20:
Williams/Leonard/Green/Harrell: 114.8 Ortg / 98.5 Drtg / +16.3 NetRtg (210 mins)

So what is needed is to find the best effective lineup that includes the starters + one of the bench guards and either no George or no Kawhi. Kennard in place of Kawhi in the starting lineup has been used for 35 minutes over 3 games and was bad, small sample size, and opponents could be a factor, but not promising in it's little use. Jackson and Kennard in place of Beverley and George has been used in 6 games for 34 minutes total and has been very strong (114.5 Ortg / 102.9 Drtg / +11.2 NetRtg), but with Beverley instead of Jackson, it has been similarly awful to the George one in 33 minutes through 7 games. So the Jackson/Kennard/Leonard/Batum/Ibaka could simply be an outlier.

Conclusion / TL;DR - Defense is the difference, not offense, Zubac's lack of post moves has no impact on offensive result
Anyways, all that to conclude, offense is not the problem with the lineups with Zubac or with the Lou/Zubac combo. The units they have had around them have actually outproduced last seasons Lou + Harrell combo and the units around them offensively, it's the defense that is the issue. Consistently with 2, 3, 4 man combo's, we see that the lineups around Lou/Zu have been VERY good offensively, their offense only doesn't look good enough because the lineups have given up a lot of points. Lou/Zu though has still been a positive combination.

Lou + Zubac: 113.5 Ortg / 110.6 Drtg / +2.5 NetRtg (539 mins)
Lou + Harrell: 111.4 Ortg /106.1 Drtg / +5.1 NetRtg (1388 mins)

Post Feb 5th Lineup shuffle:

Lou + Zubac: 114.7 Ortg / 109.2 Drtg / +5.5 NetRtg (239 mins)

So let's critique the correct things . That combination since the lineup changes has actually been very slightly (not statistically significant) better than the Lou+Harrell combo last season in overall production/possession. Lou/Harrell were already a working combo for a season before last, so even if the lineups were equal around them, it would be expected that Lou/Zu would not be as good right away anyways.

Glad you're using stats based on recent stretches of games--full-season stats often conceal more than they reveal. I'm not sure where you're getting the offensive/defensive rating stats but I've often found them a bit iffy regardless of source.

But taking them at face value, your major conclusion could be turned around decisively against the prevailing narrative--Trezz is no worse a defender than Zubac and since Zubac is nowhere as potent a scorer as Trezz, he is clearly the inferior player. All that garbage we were subjected to last year about Zu over Trezz is provable nonsense.

These previously posted figures tend to confirm yours: Lou-Trezz was plus+3.3; Zu paired with our best player Kawhi was only a bit better @ plus+4.0. Lou-Zu this year is only plus+1.0. Trezz-Kawhi last year was plus+4.5.

The improvement in your Lou-Zu figure recently could mostly be attributed to Lou, but I'm not going to look a gift horse in the mouth. But if you do a dig on Marcus, it's still not very pretty. Besides us relying on KL and PG to be playoff gods, I still think it's up to Marcus. At 34, with no defined role and his head on the chopping block either now or at the end of the season, putting it on Lou is unrealistic.

Sorry, never responded to this, other priorities

Those are from NBA.com. Lineup data (change from traditional to advanced): https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/

The reason I don't use simple +/- and use per possession is that simple +/- is not an accurate comparison if the average minutes of the lineups are different. At the minimum you would need to adjust it for minutes to make it an accurate comparison, but then that's not taking into account pace. If you are constantly +1 every 10 possessions, you will be +10 in 100 possessions, but only +9 in 90 possessions, while still being just as good. For example, if a combination is consistently +2 in 8 mins of play, but you compare them to a combination that is consistently +4, but in 16 mins of play, the +/- suggests that the second combination is "better", but they aren't "better", they just play more minutes. Per minute, both combinations are outproducing their opponents at the same rate. Per 100 possessions takes away the impact of minutes played and pace.

For example, 20-21 Zubac + Kawhi (10.9 mpg / +2.1) compared to 19-20 Harrell + Kawhi (14.6 mpg / +4.5), if you compare like that, it's an inaccurate comparison, because a consistently positive lineup will only have it's + increase the more minutes they play together. Now, we can see that the Kawhi/Harrell lineup will still be better, but the simple +/- says they are more than twice as positive, but is that true? A lineup that plays 7 mpg will not have the same +/- as an equally strong lineup that plays 14 mpg, if they (the 7 mpg lineup) did, then they are a BETTER lineup, not equal. The 14 mpg lineup should have double the +/- to be equal.

This is why we use per 100 possessions (which is just per possession, but x100 gives a larger and more easily comparable number instead of something like +0.014 type numbers). So if you normalize for minutes, yes, the Harrell + Kawhi combo was better, but not +2.4 better. At the same rate, Zubac + Kawhi this season would be +2.8 in 14.6 mpg, so we're not looking at a difference of +1.7, not +2.4, but that doesn't account for pace, and that's difficult to start calculating, hence, use per 100 possessions. Now, pace isn't generally as big of a deal when comparing on the same team in the same year, it is unlikely that pace would be different enough among lineups (possible though). This is just to do it for the exercise sake.

So those combo's per 100 possessions:
19-20 Harrell + Leonard: 116.5 Ortg / 102.0 Drtg / +14.4 pts/100
20-21 Zubac + Leonard: 114.7 Ortg / 106.0 Drtg / +8.7 pts/100

This is the most accurate comparison, of course it is still showing us that the Leonard/Harrell combination is better, but it is giving us a better comparison of "how much" better. If you want to get an idea of something similar to the minutes, you can easily do it per 30 possessions, which is approximately the average amount of possessions in around 14 mpg. That will give a comparison of +4.3 (Harrell/Leonard) to +2.6, so at around 14 mpg, the difference is around 1.7 (pace didn't change much) vs the initial 2.4 "raw" difference.

Now you can start to ask, "who else is with them in those lineups", and that's obviously a different question, Zubac this season is not used in the same lineup combinations as Harrell was, sure, that's of course the analysis part of it.

I said it last season, they have different strengths and weaknesses and that lineups with Harrell were better defensively overall, but of course things are also situational and matchups become a factor. I have never claimed that one or the other is better in a vacuum, they have their strengths and weaknesses and can be better for a team based on need and situation.
viewtopic.php?f=18&t=1921800&p=80506287#p80506131
viewtopic.php?f=18&t=1941552&p=81858576#p81857403

From Feb 5th until this game, Zubac averaged 9.1 ppg / 7.8 rpg / 67.4% FG / 20.5 mpg / 16 games (compared to 7.6 ppg / 6.3 rpg / 64.6% FG / 19.2 mpg in the previous 23 games). So his play was also up in basically identical minutes, but of course Lou going from playing poorly to playing well helps the lineups, that's a given. If Lou averaged 9.4 ppg / 3.0 apg / 39% FG / 38% 3PT in 19.9 mpg last season like he did for his first 21 games this season, the lineups he was playing with would also have been worse regardless of how the other guys around him played.

Getting there. I use the straight plus/minus DURING the game and I do believe Ty does too because his minutes allocations follow the +/- pretty closely--although that doesn't mean you give up on somebody because they're having a bad game so far. [Especially Lou, who can give you 12 points in a quarter BOOM.] And OTOH, just because Batum has only 4 points and 2 rebounds, he and a couple others might be plus+16 together so you go with the flow.

Your deep dive here is probative:

Code: Select all

So those combo's per 100 possessions:
19-20 Harrell + Leonard: 116.5 Ortg / 102.0 Drtg / +14.4 pts/100
20-21 Zubac + Leonard: 114.7 Ortg / 106.0 Drtg / +8.7 pts/100

I'm sick of the grenade tosses about Trezz but this certainly supports that last year's ennnnnnnndless debates on Zu vs Trezz were perhaps more heat than light. Trezz is doing pretty well with the Lakers and they're happy to have him.

As for Lou, he's a year older and has no Trezz to rock with, and indeed is trying to run the pick and roll with hands-of-stone Zubac. The numbers speak for themselves. I don't know what "we're paying Zu to do" but let's just say he's not outperforming his contract like Trezz did. Frankly, I HAD hoped for some post game development by now, or at least a little face-up jumper. Something. Statistically he's the same player as last year.

And whatever Zu's vaunted "rim protection" stats mean, you just showed they contribute NOTHING to the bottom line. I'm not going to say Trezz is the better defender but it shows that "eye tests" and YouTube video clips and squirrelly stats about "rim protection" are Bull. Shi*it. Secondary stats, like yards gained or quarterback completion percentages do not win Super Bowls. Plus/minus is a primary stat from the scoreboard.

AS you said from the first, plus/minus is a noisy stat. It's the worst stat in basketball--except for all the others. It's tethered to the scoreboard. You can keep your percentages and rebounds and assists and PERs and Win Shares and WARs and whathaveyou. They're not.


Mostly, whatever plus/minus numbers I've run, solo or in numerous combinations, Marcus is very disappointing. I still put the onus on him whether this team sinks or swims this year, if only because there is nobody else. I think the rest are about maxxed out. I think Ty is doing the only thing possible in shuffling the rotation, to try to get more out of Marcus by moving him to the first and subtracting him from the second.

But NO STAT suggests we're better off with Zu than with Trezz right here right now. To the contrary, as you just proved. Trezz was better with the first unit and Kawhi AND on the second unit with Lou. End of story.


So stat it: We'd be better off with Trezz taking Marcus and Zu's minutes and still have over $10 million to spend elsewhere to make up the rest. Plus we could have traded them both and got someone OF VALUE back.

Great discussion, bro Mr Moderator. Thanks for keeping the board clean lately so we can have discussions like this.

[og15]

Lue uses +/-, now how he uses it is what matters. Lue understands that plus/minus is not a be all / end all. He also seems to be aware that it is more about judging lineups than individual players.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

When he changed the rotation early in the season, it was about 5 man lineup +/-, not individual player.

Though the team’s starters ranked atop the NBA in plus/minus rating, its bench that had been so potent in previous seasons lagged in last thanks to its matador defense. From the coaches’ discussion emerged the idea to keep four strong defenders on the floor whenever possible. Doing that required changing the substitution patterns of starters Paul George and Patrick Beverley while breaking up the defensively porous three-guard bench combination of Reggie Jackson, Luke Kennard and Lou Williams that had played together nearly eight minutes per game.

Lue told Jackson, whose opportunity would be pinched most by a trimmed-down, nine-man rotation, about “staying ready.” He told Kennard that his minutes would be staggered to avoid pairings with Williams as often as possible. And he told Williams the advice the NBA’s all-time leading scorer off the bench badly needed to hear.

https://www.latimes.com/sports/clippers/story/2021-01-11/clippers-rotations-lou-williams-chicago-bulls

Lou is making lineup based +/- decisions, not single player based decisions, which is what the majority of coaches will say is more useful. Coaches will look at individual +/- and say, "why did that happen", but they won't then say, "it was that specific play being "bad" and holding the lineups back", because they know there's so much noise (eg: who you played with, whether you were unlucky to be on when the other team was hot, and off when a teammate got hot on your side, etc). Clippers bench as a whole was -5.3 through the first 10 games, Lue wasn't looking at any specific players, he was looking at the combination of players.