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The Home Stretch

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clipperlover
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The Home Stretch 

Post#1 » by clipperlover » Sun Apr 18, 2021 6:02 pm

Today begins the Clips final chances to secure one of the top 2 seeds in the West.

#1 Jazz - Donovan Mitchell spraining his ankle could cause the Jazz to lose some games they were expected even with a favorable schedule. One back to back left. 8 Home (5 game home stand remaining), 7 road. Don't expect them to lose the #1 spot though with their schedule

#2 Suns - Their last 16 games will determine if they are contenders or pretenders. They have 12 of 16 games on the road and the 4 home games are against current Top 6 conference seeds. Over the next week, they have to play the top 4 EC seeds on the road. 4 back to backs left (all on the road).

Clips have 2 back to backs left, 6 homes (4 game home stand w 3 vs playoff seeded teams), 8 road games.

I expect the Clips to overcome the Suns for the #2 seed.
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Re: The Home Stretch 

Post#2 » by Roscoe Sheed » Sun Apr 18, 2021 6:30 pm

a lot of it depends on how the Clippers treat the home stretch- will Kawhi and PG play a maximum number of games or will they rest/load manage?
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Re: The Home Stretch 

Post#3 » by Vae Victus » Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:28 am

Since both Kawhi and PG13 played against MIN, when i 100% expected one of them to be load managed, i think theyre both gonna play the rest of the games to maximize chemistry and sharpen their skills.

I mean without one of them tonight and starting Kennard, instead of a 30pt blowout it'd be a comfortable 10 pt win.
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Re: The Home Stretch 

Post#4 » by NippySudz » Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:13 am

Roscoe Sheed wrote:a lot of it depends on how the Clippers treat the home stretch- will Kawhi and PG play a maximum number of games or will they rest/load manage?
I assume they want to get everyone back in the floor for some continuity. Ibaka will need reps

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Re: The Home Stretch 

Post#5 » by Roscoe Sheed » Mon Apr 19, 2021 2:33 pm

NippySudz wrote:
Roscoe Sheed wrote:a lot of it depends on how the Clippers treat the home stretch- will Kawhi and PG play a maximum number of games or will they rest/load manage?
I assume they want to get everyone back in the floor for some continuity. Ibaka will need reps

Sent from my LM-Q710(FGN) using Tapatalk

Ibaka definitely needs to get back on the court. What is wrong with his back? I've had back tightness- but it never lasts more than a week or two.
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Re: The Home Stretch 

Post#6 » by NickP » Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:12 pm

Roscoe Sheed wrote:
NippySudz wrote:
Roscoe Sheed wrote:a lot of it depends on how the Clippers treat the home stretch- will Kawhi and PG play a maximum number of games or will they rest/load manage?
I assume they want to get everyone back in the floor for some continuity. Ibaka will need reps

Sent from my LM-Q710(FGN) using Tapatalk

Ibaka definitely needs to get back on the court. What is wrong with his back? I've had back tightness- but it never lasts more than a week or two.

Yeah it's concerning. We need him if we're to have a good chance against the Lakers or Nuggets.
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Re: The Home Stretch 

Post#7 » by og15 » Mon Apr 19, 2021 4:10 pm

Roscoe Sheed wrote:a lot of it depends on how the Clippers treat the home stretch- will Kawhi and PG play a maximum number of games or will they rest/load manage?

For sure, it was the many games in a few days that had the team wisely load managing recently.

I mentioned before that catching up to Utah is tough if you do the math.

Jazz: 42-15 (15 games)
Suns: 40-16 (16 games)
Clippers: 40-19 (13 games)

Clippers have the tie breaker vs Phoenix but not vs Utah.

If Clippers go 13-0, they would finish 53-19. Jazz only have to match to be higher seed. Jazz need to go 11-4. Suns would need to go 14-2. Likelihood of Clippers going 13-0 is low.

If Clippers go 10-3, very reasonable, they finish at 50-22. Jazz would need 8-7 to match, which would be really easy for them, even with Mitchell missing time. Suns would have to beat it, so they would need 11-5 which is very doable for them since it is lower than their current win percentage.
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Re: The Home Stretch 

Post#8 » by SK21209 » Mon Apr 19, 2021 4:40 pm

I don't think we catch the Jazz or Suns and I'm completely fine with that. With the Lakers outperforming expectations with no LeBron/AD and the Mavs slumping over the last week or two, its looking more and more likely that the current 1-7 in the standings stay there:

1. Jazz
2. Suns
3. Clippers
4. Nuggets
5. Lakers
6. Blazers
7. Mavs

This is the ideal seeding for us IMO. The Blazers are the best matchup for us in the first round and we'd only have to play one of the Jazz, Nuggets and Lakers to get to the Finals. The Suns are really good but I'd be more confident playing them in the second round than more seasoned Jazz and Lakers teams. The Lakers caught a huge break with the Murray injury, that would have been a really tough 6 or 7 game series and then they'd have to turn around and play the 1 seed. Now I think they take care of the Nuggets in short order.
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Re: The Home Stretch 

Post#9 » by Roscoe Sheed » Mon Apr 19, 2021 4:43 pm

SK21209 wrote:I don't think we catch the Jazz or Suns and I'm completely fine with that. With the Lakers outperforming expectations with no LeBron/AD and the Mavs slumping over the last week or two, its looking more and more likely that the current 1-7 in the standings stay there:

1. Jazz
2. Suns
3. Clippers
4. Nuggets
5. Lakers
6. Blazers
7. Mavs

This is the ideal seeding for us IMO. The Blazers are the best matchup for us in the first round and we'd only have to play one of the Jazz, Nuggets and Lakers to get to the Finals. The Suns are really good but I'd be more confident playing them in the second round than more seasoned Jazz and Lakers teams. The Lakers caught a huge break with the Murray injury, that would have been a really tough 6 or 7 game series and then they'd have to turn around and play the 1 seed. Now I think they take care of the Nuggets in short order.

I agree that the Blazers are a good match up, although I'm concerned that Lillard and McCollum may go off (even though the Clippers have contained them in the past) and that Nurkic will return to form.

The only other team I'd probably prefer the Clippers to play in the first round is Memphis- although Memphis has played them tough in the past 2 seasons
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Re: The Home Stretch 

Post#10 » by TrueLAfan » Mon Apr 19, 2021 4:52 pm

Really, I think we control our own destiny. If we go 10-2 and beat Phoenix, I think we'll get the #2 seed.

The key for us is really the four games leading up to the Phoenix game. Three road games—but they’re against Portland, Houston, and New Orleans. We should win all three, especially if Dame is still out for the Portland game tomorrow (he didn’t play last night). We have Memphis at home in there too. Those are four totally winnable games leading up to the Phoenix game. Winning four would put a lot of pressure on Phoenix; the Suns play five games before they play us, and all 5 are on the road. All are against teams that .500 or better; the Bucks, Sixers, and Nets are in there, and they've got 4 games in 6 days. I don’t think the Suns can go 4-1 in that string—too many good teams, and two back to backs. If they go 3-2, and we win all four of our games, that means the records going into the game on the 28th would be

Phoenix 43-18
Clippers 44-19

…which would mean we were, effectively, tied. If we win the Phoenix game, we’re in the driver’s seat.

But even if we lose a game in the next four, or Phoenix goes 4-1, we’d be all but even with them if we won the matchup against the Suns. Like I said, I think we largely control our fortunes here—and this is a real test. Sure it was different last year with the late return and the new bubble and all—but we screwed up big in the last 10 games. Two losses to the Lakers and losses to the Suns and Nets (who were under .500 last year—seems like a million years ago, right?). You go 6-4 with a couple of bad beats like that and it shows you aren’t ready for the post-season--and we weren't. The final 13 games now—the home stretch—is statement time for us. We can’t let up. 9-4 is decent but we should do better. 10-3 is acceptable. Really, I’m thinking we should be going 11-2 … if we go 4-1 or 5-0 and beat Phoenix, we’ll be well on our way.
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Re: The Home Stretch 

Post#11 » by NippySudz » Mon Apr 19, 2021 7:40 pm

Roscoe Sheed wrote:
NippySudz wrote:
Roscoe Sheed wrote:a lot of it depends on how the Clippers treat the home stretch- will Kawhi and PG play a maximum number of games or will they rest/load manage?
I assume they want to get everyone back in the floor for some continuity. Ibaka will need reps

Sent from my LM-Q710(FGN) using Tapatalk

Ibaka definitely needs to get back on the court. What is wrong with his back? I've had back tightness- but it never lasts more than a week or two.
With all due respect, you probably don't play in the nba with back to backs, banging into centers and playing on a condensed nba schedule. Lol

They're being super careful with his back. As they should they have shown they don't need to rush him right now.

They should be patient because we don't even know how he got injured, just randomly gets back tightness one day. They're being as careful as Morris'knew soreness. Before everyone thought it was concerning and might be an issue all season, now look at morris. No one is worried about his knee

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Re: The Home Stretch 

Post#12 » by Roscoe Sheed » Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:19 pm

NippySudz wrote:
Roscoe Sheed wrote:
NippySudz wrote:I assume they want to get everyone back in the floor for some continuity. Ibaka will need reps

Sent from my LM-Q710(FGN) using Tapatalk

Ibaka definitely needs to get back on the court. What is wrong with his back? I've had back tightness- but it never lasts more than a week or two.
With all due respect, you probably don't play in the nba with back to backs, banging into centers and playing on a condensed nba schedule. Lol

They're being super careful with his back. As they should they have shown they don't need to rush him right now.

They should be patient because we don't even know how he got injured, just randomly gets back tightness one day. They're being as careful as Morris'knew soreness. Before everyone thought it was concerning and might be an issue all season, now look at morris. No one is worried about his knee

Sent from my LM-Q710(FGN) using Tapatalk


I agree. What I meant was that it is quite disconcerting that he apparently still hasn't recovered. Makes me wonder if there is something structurally wrong with his back- like a slipped disc or something.
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Re: The Home Stretch 

Post#13 » by NippySudz » Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:21 am

Roscoe Sheed wrote:
NippySudz wrote:
Roscoe Sheed wrote:Ibaka definitely needs to get back on the court. What is wrong with his back? I've had back tightness- but it never lasts more than a week or two.
With all due respect, you probably don't play in the nba with back to backs, banging into centers and playing on a condensed nba schedule. Lol

They're being super careful with his back. As they should they have shown they don't need to rush him right now.

They should be patient because we don't even know how he got injured, just randomly gets back tightness one day. They're being as careful as Morris'knew soreness. Before everyone thought it was concerning and might be an issue all season, now look at morris. No one is worried about his knee

Sent from my LM-Q710(FGN) using Tapatalk


I agree. What I meant was that it is quite disconcerting that he apparently still hasn't recovered. Makes me wonder if there is something structurally wrong with his back- like a slipped disc or something.

I don't think there's anything that deep wrong with his back. He's 6'10ish over 220lbs and its a condensed season. I just think its clippers being overly cautious as they usually have been. Last thing they want is a murray situation where the guy gets injured because he came back to early from something that was tight/sore.
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Re: The Home Stretch 

Post#14 » by SnoopDub » Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:25 am

With Mitchell out, I can see the Suns take the 1st seed. We dont really need to get that 1st seed. We just need to get healthy and be prepared for the playoffs. 3rd is enough. Its a big bonus if we the first seed but it shouldnt be our priority
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Re: The Home Stretch 

Post#15 » by Clemenza » Wed Apr 21, 2021 5:08 am

Looks like Kawhi is out for at least a week. Damn
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Re: The Home Stretch 

Post#16 » by TheNewEra » Wed Apr 21, 2021 5:28 pm

SnoopDub wrote:With Mitchell out, I can see the Suns take the 1st seed. We dont really need to get that 1st seed. We just need to get healthy and be prepared for the playoffs. 3rd is enough. Its a big bonus if we the first seed but it shouldnt be our priority


Having home court in round 2 could be critical
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Re: The Home Stretch 

Post#17 » by madmaxmedia » Wed Apr 21, 2021 6:04 pm

One thing I feel good about at this point is that win or lose, I don't think we're going to suffer the meltdowns we did against Denver last season. Like most teams we need to be healthy to go deep, but generally I like our mix of players and our rotations right now.

I can live with losing a close-fought series to a good team playing well, I won't be able to stomach losing a series we mentally/strategically underachieve to lose.
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Re: The Home Stretch 

Post#18 » by nickhx2 » Wed Apr 21, 2021 6:20 pm

with doc gone i don't see this team having the same types of meltdowns we've had over the course of his tenure. ty lue is not the kind of guy who is going to sit on his hands and run out the same lineups over and over.
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Re: The Home Stretch 

Post#19 » by playaloc916 » Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:37 pm

I've also noticed that the team has had quite a few comeback wins, where they were down late in the 3rd/early in the 4th. Last year, after the usual 3rd quarter collapse, the team hard a hard time coming back in the 4th. This year, the team is finally adjusting at the right time, and not leaving it to the last minute. This is encouraging to see going into the playoffs.
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Re: The Home Stretch 

Post#20 » by Clemenza » Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:28 am

nickhx2 wrote:with doc gone i don't see this team having the same types of meltdowns we've had over the course of his tenure. ty lue is not the kind of guy who is going to sit on his hands and run out the same lineups over and over.

Exactly. We have more stopgaps and plan b's this time around. With Doc it was no adjustments whatsoever and keep playing the same guys and matchups and somehow hope they snap out of it and pray for the best however things turnout. Ty's got a shorter leash if sh*ts not going right. I honestly think he would've gambled and used Noah on Jokic in the bubble had he'd been the coach instead of Doc

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