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the final 20 games

Moderators: og15, TrueLAfan

the final 20 games: how do you feel?

feeling great - we have the talent, just need full health and lue's gonna go full tactical in the playoffs
2
13%
feeling reasonably good - need some good luck and for lue to come to his senses, and we can go deep
5
31%
feeling average - whatever we're doing now is not enough to go deep, let alone win it all
7
44%
feeling sub-par - we don't have what it takes to get past the first round
1
6%
feeling F-tier - for one reason or another, we're screwed
1
6%
 
Total votes: 16

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the final 20 games 

Post#1 » by nickhx2 » Mon Feb 27, 2023 12:42 am

True had a post in the kings gamethread that I wanted to engage in and see if we could expand upon, but I think that thread's run its course for various reasons. (on that note, glad my own modding days are over because i have no tolerance for stupidity in places where people don't respect the rules or each other, but that's another topic lol)

ANYWAY, while I realize there's already a couple different threads dedicated to the new additions, I think a thread that looks at "the now and from now on" makes some sense, as we've:

1. completed all our roster moves (presumably) and
2. have very likely seen lue's lineup architecture moving forward.

Basically, now that we're here with roster ABC, TL is (likely) going to be doing XYZ strategy with said roster for the rest of the season.


TrueLAfan wrote:It’s about more than just rebounding—but, yeah. At a certain point, Marcus’s rebounding weakness is costing us across the board. I really think one of the reasons we picked Westbrook was that he rebounds so well. Put it this way; we’re a good to very good rebounding team that gets pulled down to average by Mook. That’s a problem.

I’m torn about PG. He looks worse than he is. He’s a 24-6-5 guy that plays good to very good defense. His TS% is close to 60%; he’s very very efficient. He turns the ball over too much and makes some boneheaded turnovers, but I have to wonder if Bulls and Celtics fans are screaming about Zach LaVine’s and Jayson Tatum’s lousy passing as much as Clipper fans bitch about PG—they’ve got pretty much identical A/TO ratios. We’re 27-18 when he plays and 6-11 when he’s out. I want him to play better, sure—but, mainly, I want him to play more. He’s missed 17 games. If he had missed 9 fewer games, and we had gone 6-3 instead of 3-6, we’d be third in the conference and breathing down the Grizz necks.

But that hasn’t happened. We’re never all on the court at the same time. We lack cohesiveness and will. I kinda agree with esqtvd that we’re auditioning players for the playoffs—but Sacramento is basically even with us in the standings. That was a game to make a statement and we didn’t do it.


True's post touches on a couple things that I've been complaining about for almost the entirety of the season. Not that I want to belabor the point, anyway. In regards to morris, I don't think I"ve seen a single person not view him as a problem.

In regards to PG: I think this perspective is one I haven't super considered, and one I'm inclined to discuss. I think when we look at his overall numbers, you go "oh yeah I forgot, these actually are all-star numbers," because they are! But if we say he looks worse than he really is, I mean sure it could be the case. One could argue you don't get to the position of those leads we build without PG doing PG things for most of the game. But I would also say that he is as bad as he actually looks mostly from the idea that these critical TO's, and negative bball IQ decisions are for the most part issues that have reasonable solutions - and instead we have not really seen them get better. So if someone were to ask me "what's up with the clippers?" I'd say: they have the pieces to make it work, but they just fumble leads away by doing the same stupid things they do every game. Moreover, they haven't done anything of note to improve upon that, so they just aren't gonna win the close games a great team should, and they will give up leads just like a doc rivers team would by going full bore into their stupidest moments, win or lose.

And of course that's just my opinion and I don't really have any objective data to say "yeah they screw up too much in close games," but it sure feels like it's been the case all season, the kings game being the pinnacle of that. Like sure, say we're at full health ALL season, we are possibly the 1st seed or neck and neck at least. But I think more availability only helps us to a degree. Having the players be more in tune with each other and having more wins under our belt is great, but I don't think it fixes the core issues. And if those issues haven't been addressed in any tangible way all season (let alone be solved), then to me they're just flaws that will become hyper-exposed in the playoffs when it really counts. What's ty lue gonna do in a 7-game series against denver in their own arena when they blast benny hill music the moment PG touches the ball and simply send an extra guy to swipe at him when he decides he's gonna attack the paint? Again, no objective data but I'd bet money that opposing teams all season noticed how bad he was in this regard and increased their frequency attacking him on drives, because to me that tactic became more observable as the season went on. And in the kings game, the lazy pass at the top of the key to the left arc (forget who it was) was a telegraphed pass he's been attempting and failing at all season. Basically just saying, yeah sure, I totally get more games would have helped us with seeding and from a chemistry standpoint we would be better, but the bad things that really screw up our day are still the same and playoff strategies will punish that, so I can't say that I'm gonna be going "I wish PG didn't miss all those games" when this season is all said and done.

So what's the point of bringing that up anyway? Well, if there are no more roster moves to make and lue isn't likely to change his strategy, then I think what you see now is what you get later. I mean, sure if I'm agnostic about it, maybe he will in the playoffs, because he sat zubac/beverley when he had to, but looking at how he overplayed morris/reggie and underplayed covington/powell in the play-in, and looking at what he's done so far this season not just with morris/reggie, but literally what he did with ONE game of having westbrook, it seems clear to me he's a rep over merit type of coach.

So, in my estimation, I'm mostly accepting that we're gonna do a lot of what we did the last game, and do it for the rest of the season. Having zubac back will help, but I don't think that does anything to solve the core issues the team has. Westbrook but us back in square one in that regard. And in my opinion, lue not addressing these core issues puts us at a second round exit-ish, maybe more depending on luck or possibly more based purely on having talent. But CERTAINLY not because we found tactically powerful lineups. I mean 5-out/wingstop lineups are supposed to be our secret weapon but if you're gonna run morris as your 5, that's not gonna work so well, is it? Adding on to that, I think with only 20 games left you just don't have time for more than one more instance of experiments. You're gonna put together what you think is your playoff crew and try to get them working together, for better or for worse.

So, what do you guys think? How confident do you guys feel moving forward? Perhaps it's the wrong time to ask that as many of us might still feel emotional over the kings game (I certainly think I am). But we also don't have much season left so I do wonder what the general sense is among us here.

PS: my own preference is to not to do the "well, if lue just does this.." game because I think we are well past that point with a coach who is not going to play in to our daydreams of benching morris or optimal lineups. But yeah, 2nd and out is my current expectation and then some song and dance before lawrence frank moves on from lue and finds a new coach. Wonder what wife-stealer ime udoka is doing these days, btw?
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#2 » by esqtvd » Mon Feb 27, 2023 1:00 am

Rep over merit? Certainly there's an element of not giving up on someone who has a record of NBA accomplishment rather than invest the playing time in some prospect who has not accomplished anything yet. But Ty's PT decisions comport with the facts and the stats.

And before anyone waves away plus/minus, I doubt there's a single NBA coach worth his salt who doesn't already know who's building leads and who's bleeding them away without ever looking at the stat sheet.


LAST 15 GAMES/per 100 possessions:

1 Kawhi +8.2
2 Marcus Morris +6.4
3 Plumlee +6.3
4 Kennard +4.5
5 Reggie Jackson +4.3
6 PG +4.0
7 Zu +3.3
8 Covington +3.0
8 Westbrook +3.0
10 Batum +2.1
11 Powell +1.6
12 Bones +0.5
13 Terance Mann +0.0
14 Eric Gordon minus-6.0

all the G-Leaguers are minus-3.7 or worse except Preston [minus-1.0]

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional?LastNGames=15&PerMode=Per100Possessions&TeamID=1610612746&dir=A&sort=PLUS_MINUS

__________________

As for the poll question, I keep coming back to it all being up to PG too. He is not the headiest player--and neither was Reggie and neither is Westbrook. And that's out of the coach's hands, whoever the coach is. It's in God's hands now. :pray:


nickhx2 wrote:One could argue you don't get to the position of those leads we build without PG doing PG things for most of the game. But I would also say that he is as bad as he actually looks mostly from the idea that these critical TO's, and negative bball IQ decisions are for the most part issues that have reasonable solutions - and instead we have not really seen them get better. So if someone were to ask me "what's up with the clippers?" I'd say: they have the pieces to make it work, but they just fumble leads away by doing the same stupid things they do every game.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#3 » by Scoundreldays » Mon Feb 27, 2023 1:46 am

I've become a little less casual each season. How is +/- calculated?

It boggles my mind that Morris has the second highest when my eye test thinks otherwise. Time to level up my bball knowledge.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#4 » by nickhx2 » Mon Feb 27, 2023 2:23 am

Scoundreldays wrote:I've become a little less casual each season. How is +/- calculated?

It boggles my mind that Morris has the second highest when my eye test thinks otherwise. Time to level up my bball knowledge.


https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/7ao6h9/how_is_calculated/
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#5 » by esqtvd » Mon Feb 27, 2023 7:04 am

Scoundreldays wrote:I've become a little less casual each season. How is +/- calculated?

It boggles my mind that Morris has the second highest when my eye test thinks otherwise. Time to level up my bball knowledge.


All the stuff that doesn't show up in the box score. Spacing, boxing, etc. Kennard wasn't doing jack but obviously he was helping the spacing for the others bigtime and also playing adequate defense.

I hate MM too but the scoreboard doesn't lie. Batum's +/- is slumping lately but is usually through the roof despite the morning box score looking like he was hardly there. He's averaging only 6/4/1.5 in 22 mpg.

It certainly also depends who you were on the floor with--MM's +/- is helped tremendously by playing alongside our best +/- guy, Kawhi. But on the other hand, Mann has been playing a lot with Kawhi and it's inexplicable he should have the WORST +/- on the entire Clippers team.

Something is wtf.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#6 » by Scoundreldays » Mon Feb 27, 2023 7:14 am

esqtvd wrote:
Scoundreldays wrote:I've become a little less casual each season. How is +/- calculated?

It boggles my mind that Morris has the second highest when my eye test thinks otherwise. Time to level up my bball knowledge.


All the stuff that doesn't show up in the box score. Spacing, boxing, etc. Kennard wasn't doing jack but obviously he was helping the spacing for the others bigtime and also playing adequate defense.

I hate MM too but the scoreboard doesn't lie. Batum's +/- is slumping lately but is usually through the roof despite the morning box score looking like he was hardly there. He's averaging only 6/4/1.5 in 22 mpg.

It certainly also depends who you were on the floor with--MM's +/- is helped tremendously by playing alongside our best +/- guy, Kawhi. But on the other hand, Mann has been playing a lot with Kawhi and it's inexplicable he should have the WORST +/- on the entire Clippers team.

Something is wtf.

Thank you for the explanation. I think Morris' is inflated since he plays with PG and Kawhi 90% of the time. Mann I have no idea, if I had to guess I would attribute to him constantly switching roles between starting and playing bench. Ty Lue keeps bouncing his minutes and roles around so much.

I wish there was a way to show +/- for position played. For example seeing PG's +/- when he plays his optimal role vs when he plays PG.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#7 » by esqtvd » Mon Feb 27, 2023 7:57 am

Scoundreldays wrote:
esqtvd wrote:
Scoundreldays wrote:I've become a little less casual each season. How is +/- calculated?

It boggles my mind that Morris has the second highest when my eye test thinks otherwise. Time to level up my bball knowledge.


All the stuff that doesn't show up in the box score. Spacing, boxing, etc. Kennard wasn't doing jack but obviously he was helping the spacing for the others bigtime and also playing adequate defense.

I hate MM too but the scoreboard doesn't lie. Batum's +/- is slumping lately but is usually through the roof despite the morning box score looking like he was hardly there. He's averaging only 6/4/1.5 in 22 mpg.

It certainly also depends who you were on the floor with--MM's +/- is helped tremendously by playing alongside our best +/- guy, Kawhi. But on the other hand, Mann has been playing a lot with Kawhi and it's inexplicable he should have the WORST +/- on the entire Clippers team.

Something is wtf.

Thank you for the explanation. I think Morris' is inflated since he plays with PG and Kawhi 90% of the time. Mann I have no idea, if I had to guess I would attribute to him constantly switching roles between starting and playing bench. Ty Lue keeps bouncing his minutes and roles around so much.

I wish there was a way to show +/- for position played. For example seeing PG's +/- when he plays his optimal role vs when he plays PG.


Hero ball. They don't stay in their lane.

Actually, Westbrook did quite a good job of it tonight. 6-10, 17 points, only two 3-point attempts [one made!] 5 rebs, 4 assists, only 2 TOs [both in the first few minutes trying to get the ball into Plumlee]--and 5 steals to boot! Will it stick? Probably not. But this is all we ever asked, or dreamed of.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#8 » by esqtvd » Mon Feb 27, 2023 9:44 am

explains everything

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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#9 » by esqtvd » Mon Feb 27, 2023 10:03 am

can't blame coach for this

wtf

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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#10 » by Dynamix » Mon Feb 27, 2023 10:12 am

I voted for the "average" option, but I'm mostly just tired of all the experiments and letdowns. Wish the playoffs (playins?!) would get here already and let the chips fall where they may. I'm still not out on Ty and PG, while also irrationally confident that Mook will eventually be removed from the rotation, but we're running out of time to figure everything out.

This summer should be interesting. Only once since I started watching the Clippers did I put my casual foot down and say "I'm done watching games unless THIS happens". That time it was firing Doc after the bubble (thank goodness Ballmer finally stepped in), hopefully it won't get to that low point ever again.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#11 » by Captain Ballmer » Mon Feb 27, 2023 10:28 am

esqtvd wrote:can't blame coach for this

wtf

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Actually You can. After all the talk about pointguard need, you got yourself one that has altready established chemistry and contribution. He just didn't played them, rolled with PG13.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#12 » by Captain Ballmer » Mon Feb 27, 2023 10:38 am

esqtvd wrote:explains everything

Read on Twitter


Morris doesnt have that statusquo. It would look bad if Ty can't handle a rotation player without this type of dance.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#13 » by MartinToVaught » Mon Feb 27, 2023 3:06 pm

esqtvd wrote:explains everything

Read on Twitter

The only thing Lue's proving by throwing away a season of Kawhi's prime is that he's an idiot.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#14 » by NickP » Mon Feb 27, 2023 3:46 pm

MartinToVaught wrote:
esqtvd wrote:explains everything

Read on Twitter

The only thing Lue's proving by throwing away a season of Kawhi's prime is that he's an idiot.

This! And only this!
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#15 » by clipperlover » Mon Feb 27, 2023 5:25 pm

Morris is garbage regardless of what unrealistic per 100 possession stats show.

He has 2 offensive rebounds and 26 total rebounds in his last 10 games. Westbrook has 1 and 10 in his 2 games.

Against SAC, he had 1 rebound and that was an airball that dropped into his hands. So, he was in the right place at the right time. He certainly isn't working for rebounds.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#16 » by madmaxmedia » Mon Feb 27, 2023 6:56 pm

I think our talent ceiling is likely 2nd round loss. Coaching and rotations shifts the odds but how much I'm not certain TBH. If we made it to the second round and then lost to Denver or Phoenix I can't really feel too bad or mad about it, because that's the talent level of our team IMO.

I think by far the biggest thing holding us back from a better seed which would at least improve the odds of getting out of the 2nd round was Kawhi needing runway time and Paul George missed games.

If we want to triple down this offseason, we can use our 1sts and expirings to try to pick up a real prime time quality point guard (if any are even available.) Or Bones Hyland somehow improves dramatically and becomes a credible 30 MPG starter. Otherwise it is clear we have reached the stage of diminishing returns with our core, unless we really punch it up somehow with another guy.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#17 » by Scoundreldays » Mon Feb 27, 2023 7:14 pm

madmaxmedia wrote:I think our talent ceiling is likely 2nd round loss. Coaching and rotations shifts the odds but how much I'm not certain TBH. If we made it to the second round and then lost to Denver or Phoenix I can't really feel too bad or mad about it, because that's the talent level of our team IMO.

I think by far the biggest thing holding us back from a better seed which would at least improve the odds of getting out of the 2nd round was Kawhi needing runway time and Paul George missed games.

If we want to triple down this offseason, we can use our 1sts and expirings to try to pick up a real prime time quality point guard (if any are even available.) Or Bones Hyland somehow improves dramatically and becomes a credible 30 MPG starter. Otherwise it is clear we have reached the stage of diminishing returns with our core, unless we really punch it up somehow with another guy.

I honestly think if this season we under perform we need a mini shake up. I would have PG and Morris on the trade block.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#18 » by madmaxmedia » Mon Feb 27, 2023 7:27 pm

Morris will be a trade piece for sure simply because he's expiring. Outside of perhaps Ty, no one has considered him to have positive trade value for awhile. So hopefully we'll have some addition by subtraction there.
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#19 » by esqtvd » Mon Feb 27, 2023 8:47 pm

madmaxmedia wrote:Morris will be a trade piece for sure simply because he's expiring. Outside of perhaps Ty, no one has considered him to have positive trade value for awhile. So hopefully we'll have some addition by subtraction there.



It's not Ty about loving Morris. Morris plays because at 34, Batum can't carry a full load and doesn't have it every night.

Ty is already maxing Batum out, and in his last 10 games, the results are

22 mpg, 6.2, 4.8 rpg, 1.8 apg
36.4% FG
31.9% 3-pt FG
minus-2.8

Nico is fading :-( And at least Morris is somehow plus+3.8, 2nd only behind Kawhi and way above Paul George. Marcus is completely mediocre but he is not "killing us out there." The problem is elsewhere--both PG and Mann are minus-0.9.

As for RoCo, he got 26 minutes in the Bucks loss on Feb 10 and put up only 6 points 2 rebs and 2 assists. A team worst minus-3.3 over our last 10.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional?LastNGames=10&TeamID=1610612746&dir=A&sort=PLUS_MINUS
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Re: the final 20 games 

Post#20 » by donemilio21 » Mon Feb 27, 2023 8:56 pm

I think if anyone thinks we can go past first round, is being unrealistic. In order to go past first round, you have to beat one of Denver, Memphis, Phoenix (with KD), Kings, Mavs or Warriors (with Curry) in a 7 game series. We only have a winning record against Mavs of those teams and that was pre-Kyrie.
We showed that we could go head to head against a fully healthy Nuggets team almost a full game, but then faceplant due to our own fault.

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