Draft Talk 2008

[Manhattan Project]

In this post I hope to answer any questions that people might have with the lottery.

#01 - 250 chances
#02 - 199 chances
#03 - 156 chances
#04 - 119 chances
#05 - 88 chances
#06 - 63 chances
#07 - 43 chances
#08 - 28 chances
#09 - 17 chances
#10 - 11 chances
#11 - 8 chances
#12 - 7 chances
#13 - 6 chances
#14 - 5 chances

These are the chances that each team has in getting the number one pick. While its highly unlikely a 10-14 seed would get the number one pick, theres a slim chance.

Miami- 14 - 66
Seattle- 19 - 62
Minnesota- 21 - 59
Memphis- 22 - 58
New York- 23 - 57
LA Clippers- 23 - 57
Milwaukee- 26 - 54
Charlotte- 31 - 49
Chicago- 31 - 49
New Jersey- 33 - 47
Indiana- 35 - 45
Sacramento- 38 - 42
Portland- 40 - 40
Golden State- 48 - 32

Example: Clippers and Knicks will combine chances and split the balls, 88+63 = 151. So both the Knicks and Clippers would each have 75 combinations for the first pick.

Miami- 250 chances
Seattle- 199 chances
Minnesota- 156 chances
Memphis- 119 chances
New York- 75 Chances
LA Clippers- 75 Chances
Milwaukee- 43 chances
Charlotte- 19 chances
Chicago- 19 chances
New Jersey- 18 chances
Indiana- 8 chances
Sacramento- 7 chances
Portland- 6 chances
Golden State- 5 chances

Here is how the drafts have played out in the past.

2006 :
Toronto 27-55, ranked #5, 88 combinations, 8.80% chance to win the #1 pick.
New York, 23-59, ranked #2, 199 combinations, 18.78% chance to win the #2 pick.

2005 :
Milwaukee 30-52, ranked #6th, 63 combinations, 6.3% chance to win the #1 pick.
Atlanta 13-69, worst record, 250 combinations, 21.46% chance to win the #2 pick.

2004 :
Orlando 21-61, ranked #1, worst record, 250 combinations, 25.00% chance to win the #1 pick.
L.A. Clippers 28-54, ranked #4, 105 combinations, 11.31% chance to win the #2 pick.

2003 :
Cleveland 17-65, ranked #1, worst record tied with Denver, 225 combinations, 22.50% chance to win the #1 pick.
Memphis 28-54, ranked #6, 64 combinations, 7.20% chance to win the #2 pick.

2002 :
Houston 28-54, ranked #6, 89 combinations, 8.90% chance to win the #1 pick.
Chicago 21-61, worst record tied with GS, 225 combinations, 20.30% chance to win the #2 pick.

2001 :
Washington 19-63, ranked #3, 157 combinations, 15.70% chance to win the #1 pick.
L.A. Clippers 31-51, ranked #8, 29 combinations, 3.38% chance to win the #2 pick.

2000 :
New Jersey 31-52, ranked #7, 44 combinations, 4.40% chance to win the #1 pick.
Vancouver 22-60, ranked #4, 120 combinations, 12.71% chance to win the #2 pick.

[mkwest]

Things would have been really interesting if Memphis would have beaten Minnesota the other night. It looks like it's usually at least one team with a slim(mer) chance gets into the top 2. I just actually hope that the Clipper streak holds up for the third time. '88, '98,....'08?

[illastrate]

Please god....let the Clippers lose these next two games and the Knicks, Wolves, and Grizzlies to win all theirs!! That would mean we tie with the Wolves for the 3rd pick. That would give us a 13.7% chance of winning the lottery!

[mkwest]

By Friday evening we should know where we'll be slotted in the lottery as we're tied with the Knicks. The winner will get the extra ball and the 5th position (at worst the team would pick 8th).

[Luv those Knicks]

By Friday evening we should know where we'll be slotted in the lottery as we're tied with the Knicks. The winner will get the extra ball and the 5th position (at worst the team would pick 8th).

Tie breakers were picked earlier today. The Knicks won, Knicks have 76 balls, Clips 75. Clipps pick ahead of Knicks in the 2nd round.

I don't know the order of other tiebreakers.

[SD2042]

Wolves beat the Grizz in the other tiebreaker to have the thir worst record.

[mkwest]

Congrats to the Knicks and their fans.

[thanumba2clippersfan]

I hope that we do get better than 6th because we really need help in the back court. I want us to get a player that can help us out right now, like Thornton did this season. If we get lower than 6th we're going to get a player that isn't quite NBA ready.

[ClipperDomination]

...or we can trade the pick!

[loflin3hree5ive]

I'm starting to warm up to the idea of Westbrook being our guy.

[Vlade4life]

I hope that we do get better than 6th because we really need help in the back court. I want us to get a player that can help us out right now, like Thornton did this season. If we get lower than 6th we're going to get a player that isn't quite NBA ready.

If you stay at the 6th, you'll probably have your choice of Gordon or Westbrook. It's too bad you guys lost the tiebreaker, because you could've had a shot at Mayo or Bayless then.

[illastrate]

-= original quote snipped =-



If you stay at the 6th, you'll probably have your choice of Gordon or Westbrook. It's too bad you guys lost the tiebreaker, because you could've had a shot at Mayo or Bayless then.

...and that's what hurts. There's a definite dropoff between the 5th and 6th picks. We can only hope for a top 3. Otherwise, we might have to consider trading our pick. I really have no clue what the front office will do this offseason...and the scary thing is, they probably don't either.

[mkwest]

-= original quote snipped =-



...and that's what hurts. There's a definite dropoff between the 5th and 6th picks. We can only hope for a top 3. Otherwise, we might have to consider trading our pick. I really have no clue what the front office will do this offseason...and the scary thing is, they probably don't either.

I know what you mean. The less thinking they have to do the better.

Out of the 4 freshman guards, I'd rank Gordon 4th, but I wouldn't be too mad if we ended up with him. We'd still need a point though.

[Vlade4life]

I think if Mayo isn't available, you'd guys would be lucky to get Gordon. He's a great shooter/scorer and he plays hard on D.

[mkwest]

20 days until the lottery.

Draftexpress & nbadraft.net both have us selecting Gallinari. Does anybody know much about his game?

[ClipperDomination]

From the video where I've seen him play, it looks like his strength is his IQ.

[thanumba2clippersfan]

All I know is that he's the highest rated SF in the draft. I don't have much faith in Euros and I don't want this to end up being like the Korolev situation. Plus we need a guard anyways. Unless we draft him and trade him for someone else.

[mkwest]

From the video where I've seen him play, it looks like his strength is his IQ.

I've heard that was a strong point of his. With the right team he'll probably excel. Did he look like the "European LeBron James" though?

All I know is that he's the highest rated SF in the draft. I don't have much faith in Euros and I don't want this to end up being like the Korolev situation. Plus we need a guard anyways. Unless we draft him and trade him for someone else.

The guy is even around the same size. Seeing us select Korolev and watching that project fail miserably (although Gallinari is slated to be a more sure thing) left an awful taste in my mouth with taking an international player in the lottery as well.

[ClipperDomination]

Let's say we get the 6th pick as the lottery plays out to be true. We should:

A) TRADE THE PICK. There's no "sure talent" in the league. Gordon is a combo guard who has had shooting struggles, and is undersized to play defense on the opposing teams SG. Gallinari is a SF, and with Thornton's emergence, we don't really have a need for a SF. The only two guys I'd want to take if they fall down to us are Mayo and Bayless (doubtful to happen). We can surely try to land that player in the backcourt we are missing if we trade or package the pick for a proven talent in the league (Redd).

B) Keep the pick, and make a risky draft pick.

Is anyone else with me?

[thanumba2clippersfan]

I say if we can't get a good guard in the draft we should trade the pick for a player who can help us right now. This all depends where we pick in the lottery.