Holiinger's Clippers Forecast: 30-52

[dockingsched]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/trainingc ... recast0809

Outlook
The Clippers are hoping their revamped frontcourt and the addition of Baron Davis at the point can add up to a playoff berth, but that seems unlikely unless they're unusually healthy and youngsters like Thornton and Gordon contribute more than expected.

Health could be the major bugaboo. I projected the Clips with Camby averaging 30 minutes a game and Baron Davis and Kaman 33, including time out for injuries; if two of those three can get into the high 30s the outlook improves significantly, but given their histories that doesn't seem like the smart way to bet.

And while L.A. has some useful bench players in the sense that they can handle a 10- to 15-minute role, as far as star power goes this is basically a three-man team. Thornton is the best hope of expanding the list to four; but at the same time several Clippers have downside risk based on their age and recent declines in production, Camby among them.

Should L.A. falter, one other thing to keep an eye on is its cap situation. Camby, Mobley and Thomas all have deals that expire in 2010, which could potentially get the Clips way under the salary cap and make them players in the LeBron James-Dwyane Wade-Chris Bosh sweepstakes. Alternatively, they could trade those players to a contender for somebody with a large expiring contract and get into the market in 2009.

Either way, their future cap position looks a lot more promising than their present outlook. But isn't that always the case with the Clippers?

Prediction: 30-52, 4th in Pacific Division, 12th in Western Conference

[JJ LoDuca]

Jeez. Ouch.

[mkwest]

I'm not surprised.

Last season this team was horrible, but we missed just shy of 320 player games to injury and countless games of players playing through injury. We had no size (Powell & Thomas were logging heavy minutes at center, Fazekas at power forward) and players were playing out of position most of the time. We had no 3-point shooting. We couldn't even get a full scrimmage to run in practice half of the time. Most importantly our point guards consisted of Knight, Dickau, Cassell & Parker.

This year all of those shortcomings have been addressed significantly, but we are still only expected to win 7 more games.

[ClipperDomination]

30 wins is a little too low with the talent on this team. Come on, now.

[GuyverX]

Hollinger is an idiot. This is to be expected.

[dockingsched]

I'm not surprised.

Last season this team was horrible, but we missed just shy of 320 player games to injury and countless games of players playing through injury. We had no size (Powell & Thomas were logging heavy minutes at center, Fazekas at power forward) and players were playing out of position most of the time. We had no 3-point shooting. We couldn't even get a full scrimmage to run in practice half of the time. Most importantly our point guards consisted of Knight, Dickau, Cassell & Parker.

This year all of those shortcomings have been addressed significantly, but we are still only expected to win 7 more games.

i think hollinger argues that the biggest shortcoming, players who stay healthy, wasn't addressed.

[jgustav1]

I'm not anywhere near as high on the Clippers than most on this board, but 30 wins is the lowest predicted total I've seen from the media. I'm thinking sub-500 but just barely like a 40-42 record.

[mkwest]

i think hollinger argues that the biggest shortcoming, players who stay healthy, wasn't addressed.

The primary injuries that destroyed us last season were freak injuries that can happen to any player on any team at any time. Baron has had his share of injuries over the years, but is also coming off an 82 game season and is currently in much better shape than he has been for awhile. Camby for the last 2 years has averaged ~75 regular season games. It's not a guarantee that the same will be said for this upcoming season as he is another year older, but these numbers should be taken into consideration also. Kaman has had a couple seasons where he's missed a bit of time (19 & 26), but typically he's in the mid to upper 70's. He was playing 40mins a game with no real support last season, which he does have now. Hollinger had him penciled in for 33, which would limit the stress on his body thereby making it more likely that he would miss less time to little nagging injuries.

Even if those players missed some time, a differential of only 7 wins is kind of ridiculous. He has us as the 6th worst team (record-wise) in the league. Worse than Minnesota, just barely better than New York and Memphis. Golden State lost 2 star point guards, but they still have 40 wins.

Last year we had 3 season long injuries, which bumps us down to 12 guys (11 if you count A-Train who was always hurt). The roster was fleshed out with the likes of Dan Dickau, Nick Fazekas, Josh Powell, Aaron Williams, Smush Parker, Richie Frahm, and even Marcus Williams saw some time. I like a few of the guys, but they should not be a part of the rotation.

Maggette -> R. Davis
Cassell, Dickau, Parker, Knight -> B. Davis, Hart, Taylor (hopefully another pg in front of Taylor)
Ross -> E. Gordon
Powell -> Camby
A. Williams/Fazekas -> Skinner

All of those are upgrades with the exception of Maggette to Ricky Davis. Basically Maggette & some scrubs turns into Baron, Camby, Gordon & Ricky and apparently only 7 more wins.

[TheNewEra]

i think hollinger argues that the biggest shortcoming, players who stay healthy, wasn't addressed.

The primary injuries that destroyed us last season were freak injuries that can happen to any player on any team at any time. Baron has had his share of injuries over the years, but is also coming off an 82 game season and is currently in much better shape than he has been for awhile. Camby for the last 2 years has averaged ~75 regular season games. It's not a guarantee that the same will be said for this upcoming season as he is another year older, but these numbers should be taken into consideration also. Kaman has had a couple seasons where he's missed a bit of time (19 & 26), but typically he's in the mid to upper 70's. He was playing 40mins a game with no real support last season, which he does have now. Hollinger had him penciled in for 33, which would limit the stress on his body thereby making it more likely that he would miss less time to little nagging injuries.

Even if those players missed some time, a differential of only 7 wins is kind of ridiculous. He has us as the 6th worst team (record-wise) in the league. Worse than Minnesota, just barely better than New York and Memphis. Golden State lost 2 star point guards, but they still have 40 wins.

Last year we had 3 season long injuries, which bumps us down to 12 guys (11 if you count A-Train who was always hurt). The roster was fleshed out with the likes of Dan Dickau, Nick Fazekas, Josh Powell, Aaron Williams, Smush Parker, Richie Frahm, and even Marcus Williams saw some time. I like a few of the guys, but they should not be a part of the rotation.

Maggette -> R. Davis
Cassell, Dickau, Parker, Knight -> B. Davis, Hart, Taylor (hopefully another pg in front of Taylor)
Ross -> E. Gordon
Powell -> Camby
A. Williams/Fazekas -> Skinner

All of those are upgrades with the exception of Maggette to Ricky Davis. Basically Maggette & some scrubs turns into Baron, Camby, Gordon & Ricky and apparently only 7 more wins.

I would go as far to say Ricky may be equal vaule. Whether Ricky starts or is on the bench I think he can give us 12-18ppg also adding in he can defend some pretty much equals out the vaule in my opinion.

I would put A.Will/Fazekas-> Skinner/Novak

It does look like we need another PG. It looked so much better with or suspected rotation of Cassell, Dickau, Paker, Knight -> B.Diddy, J-Will, J-Hart, M.Taylor

[shrink]

He gave MIN 31 wins. You guys are clearly better than we are.

[thanumba2clippersfan]

It's all speculation right now. I tend to not listen to the critics because they are mostly wrong anyways. We know that we have a much improved team, and over the years no one has really given us any respect. We should play to prove those critics wrong!!!

[mkwest]

I would go as far to say Ricky may be equal vaule. Whether Ricky starts or is on the bench I think he can give us 12-18ppg also adding in he can defend some pretty much equals out the vaule in my opinion.

I would put A.Will/Fazekas-> Skinner/Novak

It does look like we need another PG. It looked so much better with or suspected rotation of Cassell, Dickau, Paker, Knight -> B.Diddy, J-Will, J-Hart, M.Taylor

When you consider what each player is being paid, I'd take Ricky (dollar for dollar) over Maggette easily.

[mj_shoefanatic]

No surprise here this dude stay hating on our Clips

[Alex_De_Large]

There is no way a team with davis and kaman win less than 36/40 games. if they stay healthy of course, but how about the other teams... they also need to be healthy to have good records.

[scratch21]

No surprise here this dude stay hating on our Clips

i cant stand this prick !!

[playaloc916]

I think the guy must've been drunk and switched the number of wins with the number of losses. But seriously, I just don't see this team being under 500 as long as there are no major, season ending injuries.

[mkwest]

There is no way a team with davis and kaman win less than 36/40 games. if they stay healthy of course, but how about the other teams... they also need to be healthy to have good records.

I think 36 would be a fair number from a critic, as they're not going to be anywhere near as optimistic about this team as the fans. He said he factored in time lost due to injury, but how many games for each player? Were they injured at the same time during his projections?

As you mentioned other teams need to be healthy also. Some of these other teams have new coaches/new playing styles to adapt to, some have key players who are going to miss time to start the season, have injury prone stars, or are getting up there in age. Some teams are more likely to stay healthy than others and completely understand that, but we are certainly not the only ones with that risk.

[dockingsched]

looks like hollinger may have been too kind.

[PlinkingPanda]

meh.. There are still games to be played. We're 1-1 with Randolph so far. I wouldn't be so quick to judge a team that continues to change and still have 68 games or so to play.

[dockingsched]

the team has drastically changed with the randolph trade so the prediction isn't really relevant from here on out. going by what the clips were doing up to this point, hollinger was spot on as far as injury concerns (camby, kaman), but was wrong about the clips dominating the boards.