Game Thread: Brewers@ Tigers- 6/14/07- 12:05 PM.

[Fort Minor]

wtf is up with Cordero lately? And since when does Ben Sheets walk 3 batters in a game?

Um, they are human?

Kids who haven't entered the real world yet

Are you kidding me? Well, then, the reason the team is sliding is pretty obvious then, isn't it? Which means there is no need to ask anymore questions, right?

I think Cordero's ERA jumping a whole 2 points is excessive. That's how poor the last couple outings have been. if the same thing happened to Turnbow, his name would suddenly report back to "Turnblow."

So then I guess I'll be a kid for being concerned if this recent trend Cordero has continues (and by trends I mean suckiness).

[Ayt]

-= original quote snipped =-



No F-ing way. What the hell is wrong with getting Gwynn in the damn lineup? I am starting to think they want to keep Gwynn around long term and are hoping some of these scrubs we never want to see play get hot enough so that they can become trade bait. Their is just no other explanation beside Yost being the worst manager in Baseball.

Because Gwynn has played like garbage recently?

His numbers since his 3-5 game on May 12th:
.240 BA
.283 OBP
.260 SLG

Since May 25th:
.174
.240
.174

Who exactly do you want him to play for?

[bigkurty]

-= original quote snipped =-



Because Gwynn has played like garbage recently?

His numbers since his 3-5 game on May 12th:
.240 BA
.283 OBP
.260 SLG

Since May 25th:
.174
.240
.174

Who exactly do you want him to play for?

Wow, I did not know. Very good point. However I still would rather see him in the lineup over Counsell, Graffy, and Gross. Thats the new monster of the team which I hear are now called Grossellnino. Thats even scarier than Counsellnino.

[whatthe_buck!?]

Ayt wrote:

Because Gwynn has played like garbage recently?

His numbers since his 3-5 game on May 12th:
.240 BA
.283 OBP
.260 SLG

Since May 25th:
.174
.240
.174

Who exactly do you want him to play for?

Oh, I don't know, to break him out of his "slump" maybe? -when you call his play garbage I assume you would also describe it as a slump-

There are at least two ways that you are being dishonest with the way you presented Gwynn's recent stats:

1)You are counting his most recent stretch (May 25th onwards) twice-
From May 13th to May 24th he went 8 for 27 (.296 avg.) with an OBP of .321. Not great, but in no way would I consider it a slump.
From May 25th through June 9th (the most recent game he played) He went 4 for 23 (.173 avg.) with .240 OBP.

What you did, to make it look like like you had two sets of stats to back up your point instead of the one set you have in actuality, was to not only list his averages from the 25th onwards but also those same poor stats in another form (in combination with his mediocre-but-not-terrible 13th-24th stretch).

2) You are listing averages with dates instead of listing the averages with the # of at bats so as to give the impression that Gwynn's bad stretch has been going on longer than it has.

Although the 25th of May through the 14th of June sounds like a long enough slump to justify burying Gwynn on the bench, what you conveniently left out was the fact that over that stretch Gwynn was given only 4 starts and 23 at bats. Listen, if you want to use 23 at bats as proof of someone's true abilities be my guest, but you might just end up looking foolish. For some perspective that will show you just how foolish consider this-

Cory Hart had a 5 for 23 stretch with only one walk between Apr. 20th and May 3rd, and a 4 for 25 stretch with no walks, no home runs, and only one extra base hit (a double) for an amazing .154 BA, and .160 OBP to start the season! That is an even worse slump than the one Gwynn has had lately, but I doubt you would have used the word "garbage" to describe Hart or would have advocated Yost sit him then like how you are advocating that Gwynn rot on the bench now. No, instead Yost continued to play Hart, and the patience has paid off.

My buddy trwi (he might not say the same of me but I harbor no ill will from our argument yesterday) keeps telling me that he gets fed up with all the unjustified love for Gwynn, but I am beginning to think there are more people on this board that enjoy tearing him down unfairly than there are people who sing his praises. Please Ayt, the last thing this board needs is another person giving Gwynn more grief than he deserves.

Some more examples of Brewers' player's slumps which Yost has allowed the player to play through, for better or worse-

4 for 25 (.200) for Hall from the 15th of May through the 20th.
5 for 38 (.131) for Hardy from June 1st through the 12th.
6 for 36 (.166) for Counsell from Apr. 10th through May 9th.
0 for 15 for Jenkins from May 12th through May 18th.
4 for 35 (.114) for Graffy from May 6th through May 23rd.

Trust me, there are many, many more example like these. I could literally go on and on.

[Nowak008]

Getting into a stat argument with Ayt is suicide.

[whatthe_buck!?]

Getting into a stat argument with Ayt is suicide.

Of that I have no doubt, and I respect Ayt for it. That is why I tried not to make a statistical argument but instead tried to show how -although his stats are dead on- he is not being fair in his treatment of Gwynn.

I can only hope that it's clear that I'm not arguing with his stats, only with the way he presents them and the severity of the conclusion that he draws from them.

[trwi7]

call me crazy, but I wish spurling weren't in the game right now....

Well we didn't have much choice. Wise threw 31 pitches yesterday, Villanueva is unavailable for obvious reasons, Shouse can barely get lefties out putting him in against a right handed heavy lineup is suicide, Vargas is pitching tomorrow so he's unavailable, they're saving Capellan for tomorrow and Turnbow and Cordero didn't go in for obvious reasons.

Either way it worked out.

[whatthe_buck!?]

Getting into a stat argument with Ayt is suicide.

Has he not looked at my post yet?
Or did I manage to survive my close brush with death?

[Ayt]

Ayt wrote:

Because Gwynn has played like garbage recently?

His numbers since his 3-5 game on May 12th:
.240 BA
.283 OBP
.260 SLG

Since May 25th:
.174
.240
.174

Who exactly do you want him to play for?

Oh, I don't know, to break him out of his "slump" maybe? -when you call his play garbage I assume you would also describe it as a slump-

There are at least two ways that you are being dishonest with the way you presented Gwynn's recent stats:

1)You are counting his most recent stretch (May 25th onwards) twice-
From May 13th to May 24th he went 8 for 27 (.296 avg.) with an OBP of .321. Not great, but in no way would I consider it a slump.
From May 25th through June 9th (the most recent game he played) He went 4 for 23 (.173 avg.) with .240 OBP.

What you did, to make it look like like you had two sets of stats to back up your point instead of the one set you have in actuality, was to not only list his averages from the 25th onwards but also those same poor stats in another form (in combination with his mediocre-but-not-terrible 13th-24th stretch).

2) You are listing averages with dates instead of listing the averages with the # of at bats so as to give the impression that Gwynn's bad stretch has been going on longer than it has.

Although the 25th of May through the 14th of June sounds like a long enough slump to justify burying Gwynn on the bench, what you conveniently left out was the fact that over that stretch Gwynn was given only 4 starts and 23 at bats. Listen, if you want to use 23 at bats as proof of someone's true abilities be my guest, but you might just end up looking foolish. For some perspective that will show you just how foolish consider this-

Cory Hart had a 5 for 23 stretch with only one walk between Apr. 20th and May 3rd, and a 4 for 25 stretch with no walks, no home runs, and only one extra base hit (a double) for an amazing .154 BA, and .160 OBP to start the season! That is an even worse slump than the one Gwynn has had lately, but I doubt you would have used the word "garbage" to describe Hart or would have advocated Yost sit him then like how you are advocating that Gwynn rot on the bench now. No, instead Yost continued to play Hart, and the patience has paid off.

My buddy trwi (he might not say the same of me but I harbor no ill will from our argument yesterday) keeps telling me that he gets fed up with all the unjustified love for Gwynn, but I am beginning to think there are more people on this board that enjoy tearing him down unfairly than there are people who sing his praises. Please Ayt, the last thing this board needs is another person giving Gwynn more grief than he deserves.

Some more examples of Brewers' player's slumps which Yost has allowed the player to play through, for better or worse-

4 for 25 (.200) for Hall from the 15th of May through the 20th. Garbage?
5 for 38 (.131) for Hardy from June 1st through the 12th. Garbage?
6 for 36 (.166) for Counsell from Apr. 10th through May 9th. Garbage?
0 for 15 for Jenkins from May 12th through May 18th. Garbage?
4 for 35 (.114) for Graffy from May 6th through May 23rd. Garbage?

Trust me, there are many, many more example like these. I could literally go on and on.

Nice post, but my thinking was quite simple.

I've been keeping track of Gwynn's stats since May 12th because everyone went ape because he went 3-5 with a walk and a SB. My initial post above was only going to include the stats from that day on, but then I noticed that recently he'd been even worse so I added those as a "what have you done for me lately" type addendum.

Of course I don't think 23 ABs is worth much of anything. Even the 50 from May 12th on is not very important. If you've read my posts earlier in the year you'd realize I also pointed out that the initial 32 AB's when Gwynn hit .407 (through that 3-5 game) wasn't worth much of anything in terms of his actual abilities.

Gwynn's overall season numbers are still decent, but his lack of power is astounding. Even with his average well above what you might expect at .305, his IsoP (SLG-BA for those that aren't familiar with that stat) is still only .049. Last year in 77 AB's it was .052. In the minors he had an IsoP of .072. To put this in perspective, Counsell has a career IsoP of .90 in the majors and a career SLG of .349; Gwynn in the minors could only post an IsoP of .72 and a ridiculously low SLG of .343. Think about that for a minute.

My question now and always has been, what kind of reasonable numbers can a person expect from him? I don't think he could even post a 700 OPS in the majors since he basically has no power. His career OPS in the minors was .694. Counsell is a slugger compared to him. Even though his numbers are inflated from his hot start he still only has a SLG of .354. Could he maintain that while his BA goes down to something more realistic while his OBP drops as well?

I'm not high on Gwynn at all obviously. I don't mind him being on the big club as a 5th OF pinch runner, defensive sub. We certainly aren't holding back the development of a top prospect by not playing him because he's not that good.

Even the thing that supposedly makes him so valuable -- his speed -- is overrated. His SB numbers in the minors certainly weren't anything special. He was successful only 72% of the time which means he probably shouldn't even steal since he'd be costing the team runs by getting thrown out so much. His stolen base totals also don't jump out at you. His career high in a minor league season was 34 in 133 games. Hart had a career high of 31 in only 113 games and on a much higher percentage.

Gwynn basically had one good minor league season in three years, and even that was underwhelming. He did hit .300 with a nice .370 OBP to go with 31 SBs (73% success rate). But he still only had a SLG of .396, which was his minor league career high. He even struck out once every 5.3 ABs, which is funny considering people think he's a "contact hitter." For comparisons sake, Juan Pierre, a guy people like to compare to Gwynn, has struck out once every 16.2 AB's in his career.

People think Gwynn can be like Pierre. Well, Pierre isn't even that great of a baseball player and Gwynn is nowhere near the prospect Pierre was coming up. Compare for yourself, specifically the SB's, where Pierre stole a base basically twice as often and at a much better rate. Pierre's BA in the minors wasn't too shabby either.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... erre.shtml

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... wynn.shtml

Gwynn is much more like this guy:
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... eras.shtml

But Taveras was an even better prospect because he was a much better at stealing a bag by quite a bit and he destroyed the ball so much in AA that he was in the majors at 22 whereas Gwynn is already 24. I certainly wouldn't want Taveras starting for me and I sure as hell wouldn't want Gwynn.

The only way he deserves to play is if he somehow figures out how to hit for more power than a good hitting pitcher while also becoming a big time SB threat. I'm not putting money on it, despite his last name.

[brewcityboii]

I think Gwynn would be great to use in a trade, No matter what there are going to have to be some quick decisions made as soon as weeks and than cappy come off the DL we gotta send two players down and if Gallardo is here for good Ned is going to have to make some tough decisions.

[xTitan]

I find it hilarious that someone rips Corey Hart's numbers when he played through a sprained wrist....if you watch the game, anyone, and I mean anyone can see Hart is 1000 times the player Gwynn is, If Tony Gwynn Jr's name was Tony Jones, no one would give a damn about a guy who specializes in Texas-leaguers. Less then 2 years ago Gwynn was not even in the Brewers top 25 prospects, if they were high on him he would still be in triple A one more year until an outfield spot opened up. If the Brewers could screw some team out of a decent left-handed reliever for Gwynn, then by all means please do it.

[brewcityboii]

[/quote]If the Brewers could screw some team out of a decent left-handed reliever for Gwynn, then by all means please do it.

That would be nice.

[whatthe_buck!?]

I wrote-

did I manage to survive my close brush with death?

I guess we know the answer to that. lol

Seriously though, you wrote the following-

I've been keeping track of Gwynn's stats since May 12th because everyone went ape because he went 3-5 with a walk and a SB. My initial post above was only going to include the stats from that day on, but then I noticed that recently he'd been even worse so I added those as a "what have you done for me lately" type addendum.

Of course I don't think 23 ABs is worth much of anything. Even the 50 from May 12th on is not very important. If you've read my posts earlier in the year you'd realize I also pointed out that the initial 32 AB's when Gwynn hit .407 (through that 3-5 game) wasn't worth much of anything in terms of his actual abilities.

That makes sense, but lets be honest, you can't post those two sets of stats side by side and then afterward say you don't think they hold any meaning. I actually believe they do shed light on something, but what I would say it could be used to show is the effect sparse and irregular playing time can have on a young guy.

That aside, you're right to assume that I wasn't paying attention to this board when everybody went "ape" after a 3/5, but if that's true I guess I can begin to understand why trwi gets so fed up when people give Gwynn praise. It's laughable that anyone would get too excited about a line of 3 for 5 with three singles, but if that's been going on you'll have to excuse me because my ignorance of forum events can be chalked up to my being relatively new to following it. My first post was on the 31st of May on the "Fire Yost" thread.

There is no way for me to take issue with your characterization of Gwynn's lack of power as "astounding", as I don't believe that even a best case outcome for Gwynn's career has him at any point raising his slugging very far over .350. Also, I was disturbed to learn that he was caught stealing every fourth attempt in the minors- you are of course right to point out that it doesn't bode well for his future as a leadoff hitter, and I must admit that I, along with more than a few Gwynn-backers, probably hold his speed in too high esteem. The most concerning thing for me to discover from reading your post, however, is his propensity to strike out, and although I was vaguely aware that it is something Gwynn needs to work on, hearing that he did it for an entire minor league season at a rate of more than 1 in every 6 at bats is a bit shocking to me.

After saying that, I still think that I would like to try and explain why I am inclined to defend a guy whose shortcomings include not being able to hit for any power whatsoever and being slower than would be ideal (among other things), so let me tell you a little about what I have personally seen from Gwynn.

*warning* the following quasi-argument contains vague impressions and very-small-sample-size first hand "visual evidence" as opposed to rock solid statistics, which therefore makes it vastly inferior to the truly excellent case just laid out by Ayt for why he doesn't have faith that Gwynn will ever become a guy that a team can play everyday without incurring too great of an opportunity cost; and thus should not really be considered a rebuttal (I know when I'm beat) *warning*

I live in Madison, and the season that Prince and the gang were down at Beloit I took more than a couple trips down to scout the future of the franchise. I didn't follow any of their stats that closely throughout their minor league careers, but when I watched them in person Tony always seemed to stand out to me. Whether it was a nice play with the glove in the outfield, a drawn out 10+ pitch at bat that resulted in a walk, or him hitting an offspeed pitch for a single that netted a RBI, his poise and timing always left me with the impression that he was a kid who would just find a way to make it in the league. Not only that, but I distinctly remember getting the uncanny feeling (and the feeling has actually gotten stronger since he has been up in the Bigs) that he was a guy who knew how to direct where he wanted the ball to go. I have no problem conceding that, to a certain extent, it could be a result of me simply projecting the positive vibes I got when I watched the father play onto the son, but I just feel like this guy has the rare quality in a hitter where he can find the soft spot in the defense and can make the ball go there.

I apologize that I can't give you anything more convincing than that, Ayt, as an answer to your implied question of why I believe a guy who is a tick slower than he need to be, doesn't walk like he should, and hits for less power than a women's softball player will develop into an asset to a major league baseball team, but that is really the best I can do. I will say this: I agree 100% that for him to deserve regular playing time he has to show that he can maintain an OPS of over .700 (I'd say it would have to be .725), and I also realize that for him to do that it probably means that he will have to maintain a .300 BA, but at this point my heart tells me not to put that feat past the guy. My brain, on the other hand, is inclined to agree with your projection.

P.S. I'm still glad I made my original post on this thread despite having my enthusiasm for Gwynn's outlook taken down a notch if only because The Baseball Cube website that you used to cite some of your statistics is really quite awesome and I was totally unaware of its existence. Thanks for the heads up, Ayt. How did you find that site? Is it a site that someone who is in a fantasy baseball keeper league (not sure of the correct term for it, but I'm referring to a fantasy league that includes minor league players) has to know about? If so, that would make sense as I've never participated in one of those.

[whatthe_buck!?]

xTitan wrote:

I find it hilarious that someone rips Corey Hart's numbers when he played through a sprained wrist....if you watch the game, anyone, and I mean anyone can see Hart is 1000 times the player Gwynn is, If Tony Gwynn Jr's name was Tony Jones, no one would give a damn about a guy who specializes in Texas-leaguers. Less then 2 years ago Gwynn was not even in the Brewers top 25 prospects, if they were high on him he would still be in triple A one more year until an outfield spot opened up. If the Brewers could screw some team out of a decent left-handed reliever for Gwynn, then by all means please do it.

Yeah, because I really ripped into his numbers. *dripping sarcasm*

I was clearly making a larger point that had nothing at all to do with trying to tear Hart down. The point I was making was that I felt that Ayt was using incomplete statistics to paint an unfairly negative portrait of Gwynn's recent play. As it turns out, all he was doing was making a point to people who have been building up Gwynn with non-conclusive stats that that kind of argument can be used by him just as easily as the pro-Gwynn crowd.

Unfortunately, you either didn't read my post other than what I said regarding Hart, or what I was trying to say zipped right over your head.

[Ayt]

P.S. I'm still glad I made my original post on this thread despite having my enthusiasm for Gwynn's outlook taken down a notch if only because The Baseball Cube website that you used to cite some of your statistics is really quite awesome and I was totally unaware of its existence. Thanks for the heads up, Ayt. How did you find that site? Is it a site that someone who is in a fantasy baseball keeper league (not sure of the correct term for it, but I'm referring to a fantasy league that includes minor league players) has to know about? If so, that would make sense as I've never participated in one of those.

I'll only quote this, but nice overall post. Its safe to say I've been underwhelmed by Gwynn's entire body of work in his career. After being a big fan of speed guys at the top, I realized as I got older that it really doesn't help the team to have a guy up there that isn't a good hitter. Anyway, I definitely hope Gwynn ups his game to the point where he's a viable option for more PT. He does have a pretty good eye which helps his overall value, and players tend to gain power as they get into their mid-twenties, but I'm not holding my breath for anything special. Its too bad because he is a hell of a defensive player.

As for the baseball cube site, I think I found that when doing a google search for "so and so's minor league stats." That came up and I searched a bunch of players.

If you don't know the site www.baseball-reference.com I probably shouldn't post it since it will eat away at your free time like no other.

If you are really nuts about baseball, you probably should check this out as well:
http://www.ootpbaseball.net/newplayer.php#game

Fantasy baseball is nothing compared to this game. I enjoyed playing an historical sim for about 20 years after doing a league wide draft of players from 1910. Each year you draft real players who debuted that season. I made sure to trade for the #1 pick to get Ruth in 1914. He and Cobb formed a potent 1-2 punch in the middle of my order.

I also had fun with a league running from about 1950 to 1970; so many fun players during that period.

[whatthe_buck!?]

Very cool stuff, man. I appreciate you posting those two sites, and I look forward to wasting lots of time fooling around on both. I can only hope that I will be able to put together a lineup as formidable as your Cobb/Ruth combo must have been.