So what is Ariza worth?

[TommyTheCat]

damnit why did Detroit start of free agency by overpaying Charlie Fricken Villanueva .... If he gets 5 years 35 trevor will want at least that.

doesn't matter what he wants as long as the teams with excess cap space don't offer anything better......and detroit is now out of the picture. i'm just hoping milsap, lee & turk get signed in the next couple days

[microfib4thewin]

Luol Deng
Ron Artest
Matt Barnes
James Posey
Hell even Rodney Carney
Stephen Jackson
Linas Klieza

That's just off the bat too.

Who cares what Barnes' history was if he's available for far cheaper and is a larger defender who won't have the size struggles Ariza had. The guy is not that irreplaceable.

What does that list of players have anything to do with this discussion? Jackson is extended to 2013, so after earning 7 mil/year until 2010 he will earn 9 mil/year from 2011-13. Posey is also paid full MLE, and he's an inferior player to Ariza this season with his decline on defense. Barnes will NOT be paid the minimum again after next year, there is no fiasco between him and the front office, and playing with the Suns help his value more than the Warriors, but I do admit he's the only player comparable to Ariza that you can obtain without using the full MLE. Artest is going to be paid 8-10 million at least like Odom, Deng is one of the worst contract in the league currently, and no way is freaking Carney close to Ariza. Any team with capspace won't use it on Ariza, so that 8-9 mil demand is just a bluff from his agent. If Ariza is paid the full MLE, I don't see why we should be seeking alternatives.

i personally think hes shown that he'll at least be thrown MLE from contending teams and am more than willing to match MLE, but not more

Please write in English. If you are saying teams will offer Trevor the MLE then that's a no brainer and it doesn't take 6 paragraphs to reach that theory. I also looked at the edit you made on guys we could pursue, and it's just as wrong. Marion got offered a 3 year 30 mil extension from Miami, even if this hasn't been a good year for him he is above MLE value, same goes for Artest, Posey isn't the same year as last year and I wouldn't give up Ariza for him, Barnes could be had as I mentioned before, and Parker is on his last leg at age 34. He can still shoot, but Ariza is a better defender and rebounder.

Lastly, it's not picking and choosing if I quote pretty much your entire post. Try again.

[milesfides]

Who knows what Ariza would be offered, but I don't think he's worth more than the MLE. James Posey and the like got the MLE, and that's just about Ariza's role: spot up three-point shooter and defender.

8+ mil is for star players, and that's just not what Ariza is.

People who look at his age and think he's got much more to his game is mistaken, I think.

Too many holes in his game. Also, there is some injury risk to him and his career year happened to be in a contract year...

Lot of ifs.

[Jajwanda]

That's a pretty silly answer considering that a number of those players in that list are superior and second of all a few of them are through trades, i.e. existing salaries such as Jackson and Posey.

The cost of Posey versus the cost of Ariza+Morrison (who you cannot be dumped easily) for this year is 12m for the first with tax as compared to an estimated 22m for the second. That has to go in the discussion for Buss. Now as for Ariza returning for just above the MLE? It's likely, things are working out in our favor in free agency. As for upgrading, only in the scenario that he looks like might get extra pay it's worthwile to do so.

With Turkoglu knocking out one possible threat, the only threat I can see is a complicated Wallace move by the Suns or a move by Portland, the expected loser in the Turkoglu conversation. Is it likely with Batum, Webster, and Outlaw? No not at all. Turkoglu has a skill-set the Blazers want. Expect them to simply sign Andre Miller now instead of in a S and T.

[Dr Aki]

Lastly, it's not picking and choosing if I quote pretty much your entire post. Try again.

pretty much the entire post isnt the same as THE entire post

you left out the very sentence i requoted, if thats not choosing to leave out important information, i dont know what is

i seriously dont know what your beef with me is

the market is what it is, i cant list many teams willing (or allowed to) to give marion, artest or posey more than the MLE

miami willing to give marion a 10mil per extension a year ago isnt the same as miami going after him NOW with a 30M/3yr offer

on the free market, with every team having ample capspace yes, ariza might be worth XX dollars per. but not in the NBA's 2009 free agency.

its just bad general management if we at least dont have a backup plan in case some stupid GM does make ariza up his roots. lest we want to fall flat on our faces when ariza surprises us with a "thanks for all the memories" and signs elsewhere...

[microfib4thewin]

That's a pretty silly answer considering that a number of those players in that list are superior and second of all a few of them are through trades, i.e. existing salaries such as Jackson and Posey.

Lebron James is a superior player, why didn't you include him on the list?

First off, we are talking about who we could have signed instead of Ariza, do you even have a plausible trade scenario for the players you mentioned? Second, are the players listed really better for this team? Artest has always been known as a ball stopper, but back then people excused it because he was the best player on a bad team, yet his habit didn't stop with the Rockets. His defense is no longer top 5(hence why the Rockets aren't doing better defensively with the Battier & Artest combo), and he always take long jumpers even though he's fully capable of pounding the ball on the inside. Jackson is a 43% shooter in his career, and his best year beyond the arc is 36%, is his shooting really an upgrade over Ariza? He's also 31 and will be 35 on his contract year. Do you really want to pay him 9 mil a year after he age past 33? Kleiza is a streaky scorer, sure he can explode for 20 or 30 for some occasion, but he's not always going to play well for the team. Though he is a better player, I would rather not deal with another Radmanovic type where we don't know what we will get every night. Deng? He's an even worse shooter who somehow lost his midrange touch. I certainly hope you aren't thinking about paying Deng(12 mil) and Walton(5 mil) for 4 more years.

The cost of Posey versus the cost of Ariza+Morrison (who you cannot be dumped easily) for this year is 12m for the first with tax as compared to an estimated 22m for the second. That has to go in the discussion for Buss. Now as for Ariza returning for just above the MLE? It's likely, things are working out in our favor in free agency. As for upgrading, only in the scenario that he looks like might get extra pay it's worthwile to do so.

What is with the Posey obsession? IMO his defense has been overrated since 07, and it's only going to decline by next year and the following year.

you left out the very sentence i requoted, if thats not choosing to leave out important information

What information? That teams will offer Ariza the MLE? That doesn't take a 500 word essay to explain. The rest of your post made little sense.

the market is what it is, i cant list many teams willing (or allowed to) to give marion, artest or posey more than the MLE

They can do S&T. When you have a large FA pool like this year who are better players than Ariza and most teams are looking for talent instead of fit like the Lakers Ariza is not going to have many suitors. Agents are supposed to inflate a player's value, and it won't change the fact that Ariza will only get the MLE either from us or someone else. Guys like Marion and Artest will not be had for just MLE.

[Dr Aki]

and if the lakers wont play ball in S&T scenarios?

who do you think the lakers will get back for ariza if you want to enlighten us...

if trevor wants to leave, hes going to have to find a team the lakers:
1. are willing to trade with (ie non-contenders)
2. have players lakers will be confident of replacing ariza's role

lakers can just refuse to play ball, especially if losing ariza nets them an additional 7-8 mil in salary? why would kupchak/buss want to facilitate moving ariza in that fashion? simpler to just do nothing and accept the capspace and 14-16mil in savings instead of trading the guy for lesser parts

im not sure that moving ariza will result in a bright young spark ready to move the franchise in a new direction when kobe decides to hang those lowtops up. teams usually dont part with those pieces for players like ariza

forcing S&Ts are notoriously sticky business moves