Lakers' production differential by position

[milesfides]

Net PER:

PG: -4.9
SG: +5.2
SF: -1.1
PF: -0.2
C: +2.7

Some comments:

These numbers are from 82games.com, which hasn't updated this week. I think Nash's numbers would be worse now.

There's some crossover here. Kobe helps us when he plays SF. Metta is actually playing at a negative at SF, while a plus at PF. Earl is playing better at SF than PF. Gasol plays well as a C, hurts us as PF.

Obviously Nash was out for a chunk of the games, but he's currently at +1.3. Unfortunately he's been routinely outplayed by top team's point guards, and Nash's plus/minus is actually a negative...meaning the team is getting outscored when Nash is on the floor.

Center position. Dwight is playing fairly well at C. But Gasol has posted a greater PER differential at Center, 8 to 6. Jordan Hill is holding it down with a +1.3.

So the question is, how can we improve? Beyond all the opinions, the game really boils down to one simple fact; winning is when one team scores more than the other.

And the sum of the production by position has to be great enough to consistently beat other teams.

Looking at the data, it's pretty simple what our team needs to do.

We do have one position that has a great overlap; center. Pau has struggled as a PF next to D-Ho, but he's still all-star caliber at Center, +8 this year, +9 last year.

So we either need to trade Pau or Dwight to get more help at point guard, where we have neither the depth nor the differential advantage.

Looking at the Heat, OKC, the Spurs, those teams have strong advantages at three positions, even four. The Lakers? Strong in one position, solid in another, and that's it.

The data backs up what we see...this roster is just not a contending one, and there needs to be change.

One interesting trade would be moving Howard and/or Pau to get a top flight point guard, one who consistently posts a substantial positive point differential.

Earl can give us better production at small forward (makes sense because we need more of his shooting and less of Metta's), and Hill and Metta can keep us afloat at PF.

That way, with a PG who can give us a +3 or even a +5 at PG would put us in contention.

Let's say even a trade which nets us, say Lowry for D-Ho (ludicrous, but just as an example)

For example, our lineup might put up:
PG: Lowry +3.5, Nash +1.3
SG: Kobe +10.8, Meeks +0.9
SF: Clark +5.7, Metta -3.1
PF: Hill -0.5, Metta +3.6
C: Pau +8.4, Hill +1.3

And suddenly our team adds up to a contender.

Obviously chemistry needs to be taken into consideration, but we can't overlook the math.

[leeprettyp]

its kinda obvious the PG position is gonna need to be addressed. I'm for Nash being here (he aint goin no where anytime soon with that kinda cash lol) But were gonna need to get a speedy playmaking backup PG that can play +28mpg to keep Nash legs fresh. Also its gotten to the point where we cant get away with Kobe being the only playmaker on the roster its just not gonna work with him being on the decline and out of his prime years (still very good tho). Also think we seriously need to start paying into to these guys "character" before we bring them into the purple in gold. For instance tonight after the game all people were talking about was the stagnant offense and anytime the word defense was brought up it wasnt even a concern smh. To many guys who want to score and not enough glue guys who know and want to play their role. Would be nice to add a couple legit shooters to the roster. But seriously the writings on the wall Dwight probably isnt that guy for us (if he mentally isnt committed to this franchise like its looking like) Just keep the cap space available bring in a couple of games that can help Kobe, Gasol , Clark, Hill, and Nash. Pretty sure we'll be using the amenity on Metta this summer cuz we seemed married to this coach and Metta just isnt gonna fit his system

[Minge]

Comment removed.

[KevinUrb]

I feel bad that Blake would most likely be the odd man out if we make a trade for a better PG, especially since his play ever since coming back hasn't been all that bad. Does our Net PER for our PG position account for Darius and Duhon taking the bulk of our PG playing time this season?

[Doormatt]

PER is a horrific stat to try to draw conclusions from. it doesnt take defense into account at all (since its a box score stat), favors volume scoring, and underrates pass first point guards. these are facts that you can ask anyone with knowledge about PER or stats in general.

other than telling us the obvious, like we have a good center and shooting guard and are **** at other positions, i wouldnt read much into this. nash has been always been underrated by PER (just like Magic) so this isnt breaking news.

[Doormatt]

but yeah its obvious this team as currently constructed just isnt very good and is a poor fit. hopefully something happens.

[crazyeights]

Wish Pau injured and still not an expiring, I can't imagine they'd trade him until this off-season.

IMO, we need to upgrade PG and SF. Not just PG. I'd rather have Clark/Hill as our PF rotation come next year. Still feel like he's not a good enough 3 point shooter yet.

[dockingsched]

PER is a horrific stat to try to draw conclusions from. it doesnt take defense into account at all (since its a box score stat), favors volume scoring, and underrates pass first point guards. these are facts that you can ask anyone with knowledge about PER or stats in general.

agreed. there really isn't anything of value to draw from it in the way its being presented here imo.

[crazyeights]

PER is a horrific stat to try to draw conclusions from. it doesnt take defense into account at all (since its a box score stat), favors volume scoring, and underrates pass first point guards. these are facts that you can ask anyone with knowledge about PER or stats in general.

agreed. there really isn't anything of value to draw from it in the way its being presented here imo.

Regardless of PER's merits, it's pretty obvious we need to upgrade at backup PG. We need a defensive hound behind Nash. Someone young and athletic. Wish we could get a kid like Bledsoe (sigh).

Also an eyeball test will tell you we could really use a lanky shooter and all-around glue guy. Someone Batum-esque.

Beyond that, we'd need Hill back and healthy, because the only way we could acquire even a poorman's version of one or both of those positions is trading Pau.

[dockingsched]

oh, i like PER, i just find the idea of defensive PER per position to be pretty useless.

defense is a team effort. if teams put the lakers pg and pf into a pick n roll and the pf is too slow to play adequate defense and the opposing pg gets a wide open shot or open lane to the bucket, is that the lakers pg fault? if the opposing pg is killing is killing it one on one forcing help and the opposing sg gets wide open shot after wide open shot, is that the lakers sg fault for having to help? i just find defensive PER to be useless.

[milesfides]

PER is not perfect, but it's one of the best available. And PER differential is very important, especially on our particular team, because the lack of defense, both individual and team, is a major factor.

Regarding Nash, his PER differential last year was +7.1. This year, +1.3.
Nash's PER last year was 20.3. This year, 16.05

So by any standards, by Nash's own standards, he went from all-star caliber last year to being pretty average. Nash went from 8th last year among point guards to 25th this year.

And that hurts the team, because Nash isn't elevating anybody's game - he has a negative plus/minus this year. I repeat, negative. There's no argument made here, Nash on the Lakers has been a failure so far by any measure. His own production, his impact on his teammates, there's just no argument. The math is irrefutable.

At best, this isn't a good environment for him. At worst, he's looking at the end of his career.

So the Lakers need to either change the environment for Nash (athletic shooters) or move/replace him.

Neither is exactly easy to do.

1. If the Lakers keep Nash as a centerpiece under D'Antoni, the Lakers would have to give up a serious piece to get an athletic shooter and 2-way player. Convince Howard to play in D'Antoni's open opportunity, perimeter offense with a p/r option in the halfcourt. Convince him to play defense at the other end. Gamble that he's even here. Gamble that Nash can still run this type of offense for the next few years. Gamble that this style of playing can win championships.

2. Keeping Nash as a backup means largely eating the big contract that he signed, getting hit with the luxury tax. Lakers don't want to do that. And moving him can prove to be very difficult - what's the market looking like for a 39 year old who's been having this kind of season? And if Nash is gone, what about D'Antoni? What justifies his being the head coach without Nash? He came here for Nash, we got him because we had Nash. Fire him too, eat that money as well?

No matter what the Lakers do, it's going to be a tough decision. But necessary. Because the Lakers, as constructed, are not beating their opposition at enough positions.

Miami, total PER differential, is +15. That's like playing with 6 players on the floor.
San Antonio? +14.5. Same thing.
OKC? Almost +19. Imagine a five average nba players...then Damien Lillard gets to play with them, against your five.
Clips? +16.6.

Lakers? +1.7.

We're that average team. True, if Nash played more, our total PER difference would be maybe +4, maybe +5. But that's just not enough. Nowhere near enough.

[IamBBAnalysis]

Based on those stats (and the eye test) I still feel the biggest problems are the center position (Dwight has not dominated other centers and center is the weakest position in the NBA), SF, and PF. The Lakers have not found a good mix with the forwards. Like you said Gasol is not good at pf, Artest is poor at floor spacing at the 3, etc.

I think the Lakers need a forward they can rely on and the center position to get better. Nash has not been outstanding but pg is about the best position in the NBA and Nash struggled a lot when he got back from injury. He has gotten better. How is that stat looking the last 10 games or so? Nash did shoot poorly against the Clippers though and looked old...but the previous games he looked pretty good. I feel like if Dwight plays hard (or Gasol is playing center) and if the Lakers can shoot then Nash is a positive factor.

The Clippers game was embarrassing and the team might be done though. No energy again. Dwight reverted back and Nash looked old. And Clark stopped playing well. If that is the norm for these three guys the team is done.

[Leor_77]

Great thread...I like that the OP based their arguments on concrete statistical evidence.

With that said, I think the best thing the team could do would be to get a sniper 3-point shooter with hopefully decent defensive capabilities. Artest hurts us tremendously - He shoots at a very low percentage, often deviates from playing in his role, makes the ball stick with him when it's being swung around, etc. For his defensive capabilities, which I strongly believe are overrated, he completely overrides their benefit by his poor offense - When he takes and misses a dumb shot in transition or bricks a wide-open shot, he hurts us tremendously defensively because there is a good chance that the other team will get a transition basket. Also, if we had a good shooter, we would have more space down low, and you would see an improvement from our bigs, as well as Kobe and Nash, as they would also have more space to drive into the lane.

Next thing is obviously our PG position...Nash is a great guy - Nicest guy I've seen on this team in a while, but the defense is paralyzing. You can't constantly be making up for one person's deficiencies (i.e. putting Kobe on his man). It's just really tough. We're stuck with him for right now, but boy do I wish we had Sessions.

Also, the last and maybe even most important thing, which I'm surprised no one brought up yet...Our **** coach. I could go on for days, but I'll just keep it simple - When you have two great bigs, you don't design an offense that is predicated upon shooting lots and lots of jump shots. This is a team that should slow the game down, and force-feed the bigs. You know it's bad when you can imagine if we had a team with prime Duncan and Shaq at the PF/C, and all this coach would do would be to tell our role players to shoot a bunch of outside shots. It's just frustrating how incompetent coaches keep on getting jobs, much less on our team.

[IamBBAnalysis]

Great thread...I like that the OP based their arguments on concrete statistical evidence.

With that said, I think the best thing the team could do would be to get a sniper 3-point shooter with hopefully decent defensive capabilities. Artest hurts us tremendously - He shoots at a very low percentage, often deviates from playing in his role, makes the ball stick with him when it's being swung around, etc. For his defensive capabilities, which I strongly believe are overrated, he completely overrides their benefit by his poor offense - When he takes and misses a dumb shot in transition or bricks a wide-open shot, he hurts us tremendously defensively because there is a good chance that the other team will get a transition basket. Also, if we had a good shooter, we would have more space down low, and you would see an improvement from our bigs, as well as Kobe and Nash, as they would also have more space to drive into the lane.

Next thing is obviously our PG position...Nash is a great guy - Nicest guy I've seen on this team in a while, but the defense is paralyzing. You can't constantly be making up for one person's deficiencies (i.e. putting Kobe on his man). It's just really tough. We're stuck with him for right now, but boy do I wish we had Sessions.

Also, the last and maybe even most important thing, which I'm surprised no one brought up yet...Our **** coach. I could go on for days, but I'll just keep it simple - When you have two great bigs, you don't design an offense that is predicated upon shooting lots and lots of jump shots. This is a team that should slow the game down, and force-feed the bigs. You know it's bad when you can imagine if we had a team with prime Duncan and Shaq at the PF/C, and all this coach would do would be to tell our role players to shoot a bunch of outside shots. It's just frustrating how incompetent coaches keep on getting jobs, much less on our team.

You seem like you are posting about the Lakers earlier in the season. Things have changed. There are different problems now.