Stein:Many Believe Lakers will package Lottery Pick for Love

[Mamba Venom]

6% chance at #1 pick
Slightly better odds for pick #2 or 3

After top 3 picks it's based off of record so we would get top 3 or #6 pick. I had to look up how the lotto works because laker fans don't usually know.

Winning 3 of our last 6 games cut our odds in half of getting a top 3 pick and a guaranteed 4th pick. Lakers don't tank

[Westbreezy]

6% chance at #1 pick
Slightly better odds for pick #2 or 3

After top 3 picks it's based off of record so we would get top 3 or #6 pick. I had to look up how the lotto works because laker fans don't usually know.

Winning 3 of our last 6 games cut our odds in half of getting a top 3 pick and a guaranteed 4th pick. Lakers don't tank

We could also move down from 6th to 7th if someone behind us moves into the top 3, which does happen.

[crazyeights]

6% chance at #1 pick
Slightly better odds for pick #2 or 3

After top 3 picks it's based off of record so we would get top 3 or #6 pick. I had to look up how the lotto works because laker fans don't usually know.

Winning 3 of our last 6 games cut our odds in half of getting a top 3 pick and a guaranteed 4th pick. Lakers don't tank

We could also move down from 6th to 7th if someone behind us moves into the top 3, which does happen.

Technically you can move from 6 down to 9 at worst. (Extremely rare that teams from 7-14 would place 1, 2, 3, but it's possible.)

[madmaxmedia]

If we don't land 1-3, the chances of getting bumped below #6 are lower (at 35%) than getting #6 (44%), but it's not an uncommon event.

If we end up 6th in standings, the split is basically-
#1-3 21%
#6 44%
#7-9 35%

My guess is that trading a mid-lottery pick (such as #6) before the lottery, will give a somewhat higher return than trading the actual #6 pick (after the lottery.) Everyone's hoping to get lucky, I think landing #1-3 is a big potential return on the pick, vs. the potential loss in value in going from #6 to say #7 or #8 (where you might get the player you originally targeted at #6 anyway, depending on how things go.)

Of course talent distribution will vary from draft to draft, but often there's a clump of top talent in those first couple of picks, and then a clump of a few picks after that. But it just depends. This year seems to lack a consensus #1, like a LeBron or Andrew Luck (different sport but same idea), etc.

[Kilroy]

Remember, as far as I know, we can't actually trade the pick prior to the draft... We've traded too many picks in the past... What we can do it agree to pick for a team or trade the draft rights to the player we just picked.

So, knowing that, teams are probably going to keep us hanging until the the first few picks are made before they agree to trade with us. Which likely won't be terrific for the trade value of the pick, unless something miraculous happens, in which case, we'll probably just keep it.

[spree8]

This is a tough choice. Management is torn between two things: getting Kobe the help/team he deserves for him to be able to compete for a title next year, and trying to lay the groundwork for a title contending team in the future.

The latter would certainly require them keeping this pick. Having a selection within the top 6 of such a talented draft class is something that obviously doesn't come around very often for the Lakers. When they have been in the lotto, they've been able to get players who have contributed significantly to a championship, i.e. Bynum, Kobe, Worthy, Magic etc. Would they pass on the next big thing in either Wiggins, Parker etc for a player they could possibly even sign outright next year just to try to compete one year sooner???

If I'm Mitch, I keep this pick and sign Love next offseason. Odds are this team will not be ready to compete next year even with Love and Kobe @ 100%. Yes, they'd have a year under their belt and some chemistry together which would benefit them for the year after, but is it worth the cost of trading a potential franchise player?? No way.

I would love to have Kobe get a legit team to go to war with next season, but the price is too high. Hopefully he understands this. He has the right to be selfish and ask them to do whatever it takes even if it means trading the pick to get him more help, but Mitch also has the right to not give in and do what's best for business and keep this pick.

They should just fire D'Antoni, sign Gasol to a big 1 year deal (or multi year deal with a TO for the 2nd yr) and roll with a Nash, Kobe, Gasol trio next year. Let the rookie play as much as possible and sign as many cheap playoff experienced vets they can to a 1 year deal. With the right coach, and players, a team like that could make some noise.

Then after next season Nash and Gasol are off the books and they can bring KLove in and have a trio of him Kobe and the rookie.

[lakersin4]

I think we'd be better off trading the pick for a star PG like Irving if he's available & using him to help recruit Love in 2015.. But if that option isn't there you trade the pick for Love.

[dockingsched]

Remember, as far as I know, we can't actually trade the pick prior to the draft... We've traded too many picks in the past... What we can do it agree to pick for a team or trade the draft rights to the player we just picked.

just so there's no confusion kilroy, the reason the lakers can't trade their pick is because they aren't guaranteed to have a pick in 2015. the rule has nothing to do with the past.

[Kilroy]

Thanks Doc, that's right... Forgot about that.

[spree8]

Actually now that I think about it, depending on Free Agency, I would consider trading the pick if I was Mitch. If they could feel around the market to see who would be interested and what kind of money they were looking to get, it could be something to seriously think about.

If Kobe is getting 23.5 and Nash 9.7 next year plus cap holds totaling approx 5 mil that leaves around 20-21 mil. I would think that the pick and Nash would be enough to get KLove. Then there's still plenty of room to go after a pair of players like Gortat and Lowry with the remaining approx 16 mil. This is assuming the cap moves from 58.6 to maybe 59.5 at least. I think Gortat starting at around 8-8.5, and Lowry at 7.5-8 is good for both. Fill in the rest of the roster with cheap vets like Kirk Hinrich for example, and it could be solid.

Lowry, Kobe, Love, Gortat would be a hell of a core. I would prefer a new coach, but I think D'Antoni would do well with this team if he absolutely had to stay. Just an idea. I'm sure there's other FA's that could be substituted in place of the ones I picked, but at least you get the picture.

[madmaxmedia]

Remember, as far as I know, we can't actually trade the pick prior to the draft... We've traded too many picks in the past... What we can do it agree to pick for a team or trade the draft rights to the player we just picked.

So, knowing that, teams are probably going to keep us hanging until the the first few picks are made before they agree to trade with us. Which likely won't be terrific for the trade value of the pick, unless something miraculous happens, in which case, we'll probably just keep it.

Oops. Then let's just go straight to Plan B- something miraculous happens. We get a top 3 pick that pans out into an All Star, Kobe rebounds strong, and we sign Love next offseason along with a supporting cast who want a ring. Season after that, Kobe retires, Lakers get another max player to continue the LA Big 3.

2014/5- Playoffs, 2015/6- WCC/Title, 2016/7- Title.

That was easy.

[pdub15]

Makes no sense to trade lottery pick when we also have cap space. We could sign Melo or Lebron (Lebron unlikely though) plus have lottery pick and still have about another 12 mil in cap space in summer of 2015 depending on what we sign a Melo or Bron for, & using vet min on key role players looking for championship on 1 year deals. Trading pick and killing the cap space would be a bad move. Most of our future picks are basically gone to Phoenix & Orlando so only package we could do is Nash & Lottery pick for Love. No way Minnesota does that trade and that would actually hurt our future. Rather draft one of these Wiggins/Parker/Embiid/Randle/Exum/Smart/Gordon and add Melo or Lebron this summer and another good piece next summer. That just seems like the smarter move for the future.

[lakersin4]

Makes no sense to trade lottery pick when we also have cap space. We could sign Melo or Lebron (Lebron unlikely though) plus have lottery pick and still have about another 12 mil in cap space in summer of 2015 depending on what we sign a Melo or Bron for, & using vet min on key role players looking for championship on 1 year deals. Trading pick and killing the cap space would be a bad move. Most of our future picks are basically gone to Phoenix & Orlando so only package we could do is Nash & Lottery pick for Love. No way Minnesota does that trade and that would actually hurt our future. Rather draft one of these Wiggins/Parker/Embiid/Randle/Exum/Smart/Gordon and add Melo or Lebron this summer and another good piece next summer. That just seems like the smarter move for the future.

Unless Melo took a big paycut, Melo + Kobe + draft pick + cap holds would use up almost all of our cap space.. There wouldn't be 12M of cap space in 2015.

Kobe 25
Melo 23.5
#6 pick 2.6M

9 minimum cap holds 4.5M

Would already put us around 55M assuming we don't sign any of our role players to multiple year deals between now & then..

Not to mention we can't even afford to give Melo the max with Nash still on the books this summer.

[tviper]

I think we'd be better off trading the pick for a star PG like Irving if he's available & using him to help recruit Love in 2015.. But if that option isn't there you trade the pick for Love.

This is exactly what I now think is the best option. where there is smoke, there is fire. Kyrie can't possibly want to be stuck in CLE for 5-6 years. if he tells management he wants out, CLE would have to seriously consider the possibility of two lottery picks in this draft.

http://www.complex.com/sports/2014/04/k ... land-years

this would be the best option for LAL because after the trade, LAL could offer the max extension and lock him up. Then they would have Kobe+Kyrie to entice KLove to sign. Kobe+Kyrie+KLove = shot at making a run in 2015-16. Kobe comes off the books thereafter and Kyrie+KLove would be very tempting for another big name FA to join in 2016-17.

[tviper]

Makes no sense to trade lottery pick when we also have cap space. We could sign Melo or Lebron (Lebron unlikely though) plus have lottery pick and still have about another 12 mil in cap space in summer of 2015 depending on what we sign a Melo or Bron for, & using vet min on key role players looking for championship on 1 year deals. Trading pick and killing the cap space would be a bad move. Most of our future picks are basically gone to Phoenix & Orlando so only package we could do is Nash & Lottery pick for Love. No way Minnesota does that trade and that would actually hurt our future. Rather draft one of these Wiggins/Parker/Embiid/Randle/Exum/Smart/Gordon and add Melo or Lebron this summer and another good piece next summer. That just seems like the smarter move for the future.

Unless Melo took a big paycut, Melo + Kobe + draft pick + cap holds would use up almost all of our cap space.. There wouldn't be 12M of cap space in 2015.

Kobe 25
Melo 23.5
#6 pick 2.6M

9 minimum cap holds 4.5M

Would already put us around 55M assuming we don't sign any of our role players to multiple year deals between now & then..

Not to mention we can't even afford to give Melo the max with Nash still on the books this summer.

I thought Melo was coming until Phil signed with NY. Now, he could have already made the decision NOT to keep Melo, but best guess is that Phil is going to build around Melo, and NYK will give him a max deal. As I just wrote above, again quoting lakersin4, best option is trading pick for Kyrie.