All-Star Odds for Current Players

[aaron_gray]

This topic has actually been somewhat discussed already, but I've decided to bring it up again after listening to Zach's latest podcast with Daryl Morey. At the start of the pod, Morey mentions how at the time of the Harden trade, the Rockets roster had exactly a 25% chance of containing a future all-star, with Lowry having the highest odds followed by Marcus Morris. It appears there's a way that teams calculate these odds, though I'm not sure how. If you were to assign odds to current Laker players in terms of becoming an all-star, what would these odds be and how would you justify them?

[Slava]

Before the draft Kevin Pelton gave Russell a 40% chance of becoming a superstar. A few months ago he said Russell is right on his time table with everything except free throw rate. So I'd give him the highest chance of becoming an all star on this team, say 25% followed by Ingram at 20%. Everyone else I'd put well below 1%.

[aaron_gray]

Before the draft Kevin Pelton gave Russell a 40% chance of becoming a superstar. A few months ago he said Russell is right on his time table with everything except free throw rate. So I'd give him the highest chance of becoming an all star on this team, say 25% followed by Ingram at 20%. Everyone else I'd put well below 1%.

By free throw rate you mean something along the lines of free throws per shot attempt and not free throw accuracy right, because right now he does not take nearly enough fts for that to make a difference. If he maintains his current playing style for the rest of his career, I would say the biggest factor for D'Angelo would be his 3 pt %.

[Penberthy]

Zubac will be 25 in 6 years. It will be between him, KAT and AD.

[Slava]

Before the draft Kevin Pelton gave Russell a 40% chance of becoming a superstar. A few months ago he said Russell is right on his time table with everything except free throw rate. So I'd give him the highest chance of becoming an all star on this team, say 25% followed by Ingram at 20%. Everyone else I'd put well below 1%.

By free throw rate you mean something along the lines of free throws per shot attempt and not free throw accuracy right, because right now he does not take nearly enough fts for that to make a difference. If he maintains his current playing style for the rest of his career, I would say the biggest factor for D'Angelo would be his 3 pt %.

I meant the ability to draw fouls. He's driving more now so may be the free throw attempts will come.

[Landsberger]

Not sure how they calculate the "odds" but a couple things about becoming an All Star should be baked in there for it to be realistic.

First, the position a player plays and the current "competition" in his conference is something that is a real factor. An average guy can make it in a weak position in his conference while the opposite is true as well.

Second, since fans vote, it's a popularity contest to an extent. Similar performances in Memphis, Milwaukee, Toronto, Charolette, Sacramento etc. don't get as noticed as they do in Chi, LA, NY and the Texas area.

It's a largely subjective set of criteria to become an All Star and it's really not that indicative of being a great player. It's a publicity event.

All of that said, it would seem that the odds would be highest for one of our guys at the weakest position in our conference. PG would seem to be the hardest one while PF might be the easiest from that perspective.

[danfantastk32]

Ok....so I am assuming this is not "9-time allstar", but I assume it's not just once either.

Russell....33% Room for growth still. It's mental with him, imo. He gets a bonus because the Lakers have such a large fan-base. It's a league loaded with guards though. You can be really really good....and still only be the 7th-8th best PG in the league.
Randle....20% This guy has alot going for him, and thats with all those limitations. Imagine if he rounded out his game. But....I said that exact thing at the beginning of the season, and so far...Nothing.
Ingram...33% This guy has had one barf-bag of a season. I mean, Jesus that was bad. But it was his first year, and he's a spindly stick. It's the confidence at this point. That is very correctable...especially with time. He's gonna be way better than that. Allstar? We'll just have to wait and see. He'll get that "laker nation" boost though.
Nance...5% <----I just see that spark-plug role player who will have nagging injuries throughout his career.
Clarkson....1% Nice pick for a 2nd rounder. Made a name for himself, and got $$$ Good for him. I think he's close to his ceiling, and that's not good enough.
Zubac...45% Not alot of centers. Very few good ones. He already has a solid game to him. Shocked he's not getting more minutes. But it's still so, so early to really know what's gonna happen for this guy. I think injuries are his biggest road block. Alot of Centers fall apart. With what he's showing, and the lack of many other good centers out there..I like his chances alot. Especially with the fan-base behind him. If someone could promise me he'd avoid the injury plague centers often have...I'd move it up towards the 75% mark. This guy looks really good in a time of "small ball". I'd be shocked if he didn't improve much more after this....and never became an allstar.

[Pythagoras]

Clarkson and Nance are zeroes. Nance projects to be a role player, Clarkson is a crappy ball hog. I'd definitely put Russell as the highest odds as anyone on our team. He's well ahead of the rest of the young talent on the team, he just needs to stay aggressive/continue progressing/ and keep getting opportunities.

[Dr Aki]

Zubac will be 25 in 6 years. It will be between him, KAT and AD.

jokic easily beats out zubac if he maintains his franchise level play

[TylersLakers]

How I see the Lakers core prime years (ages 25-29):

1- Russell: 22-24 PPG, 5-7 APG, 1-2 SPG, 44-46% FG, 37-39% 3PT
2- Ingram: 17-19 PPG, 6-8 RPG, 2-3 SPG, 46-48% FG, 35-36% 3PT
3- Randle: 15-17 PPG, 9-11 RPG, 4 APG, 46-48% FG
4- Zubac: 14-16 PPG, 8-10 RPG, 2-3 BPG

Nance and Clarkson will be valuable roleplayers. Clarkson as a third guard off the bench and Nance as a versatile big.

[danfantastk32]

Zubac will be 25 in 6 years. It will be between him, KAT and AD.

jokic easily beats out zubac if he maintains his franchise level play

I don't know much about Jokic. He's 2 years older, and he's in his 2nd year, compared to first. But more importantly....those 2 seasons are 22mpg, and now 27mpg. Zubac has played in 27 games....at 14 mpg.

That said....Jokic has decent stats. They increased this season. And his PER is 26.47. It seems like I'm this huge PER guy, and I'm not really. But I understand it's a pretty good gauge for who's being productive out there.

I mean look at the top 10:
Westbrook
Leonard
Durant
Davis
Harden
Thomas
Cousins
Antetokounmpo
James
Jokic <-------
Followed by
CP3
Butler
Towns

Curry is #18, and I take him over most on that list....which is why one should never be a PER robot. But when a guy makes the top-10, clearly he's doing alot of things right. Seems like he's legit.

[Acountant_Z]

Zubac will be 25 in 6 years. It will be between him, KAT and AD.

jokic easily beats out zubac if he maintains his franchise level play

I don't know much about Jokic. He's 2 years older, and he's in his 2nd year, compared to first. But more importantly....those 2 seasons are 22mpg, and now 27mpg. Zubac has played in 27 games....at 14 mpg.

That said....Jokic has decent stats. They increased this season. And his PER is 26.47. It seems like I'm this huge PER guy, and I'm not really. But I understand it's a pretty good gauge for who's being productive out there.

I mean look at the top 10:
Westbrook
Leonard
Durant
Davis
Harden
Thomas
Cousins
Antetokounmpo
James
Jokic <-------
Followed by
CP3
Butler
Towns

Curry is #18, and I take him over most on that list....which is why one should never be a PER robot. But when a guy makes the top-10, clearly he's doing alot of things right. Seems like he's legit.

I'll quote someone smarter than me but for those not familiar with Jokic it is worth a look:

Among Centers:

Real plus-minus - Jokic, Gobert, Cousins
PER - AD, Cousins, Jokic
WS/48 - Gobert, Jokic, Jordan
Box plus-minus: - Jokic, Cousins, Gobert
VORP - Cousins, KAT, Jokic

All looking this up confirmed to me is that Jokic, Cousins and Gobert are easily the 3 All-NBA centers. Jokic may even be 1st team as he's the only center to be top 3 in all advanced stat rankings. Though I stick with Cousins because he has more history.

[Pointgod]

It seems that if you're a number 1 pick, you have a pretty good probability of becoming an Allstar. After that it's pretty much a toss up.