Quick draft position tool you can use for future discussions

[aaron_gray]

I took about 3 hours, compiled 17 different mock drafts (7 of which were full 2 round mocks) into one excel file and found the average draft position for a bunch of players.

Edit: Scratch what I said before, here's the file thanks to Dr. Aki: http://s000.tinyupload.com/index.php?file_id=87353497686736087635

Just copy and paste the name of the player into the box and you'll get your number

Some Notes on the Data/Tool:

-I personally would not use this for anything other than a rough reference for what kind of draft capital it would take to land your favorite prospect. There are probably other ways to use this but there are just so many caveats that I would caution against it. For example, if I removed nbadraft.net's 40 pick for OG Anunoby, then he shoots up to the late lottery which is where 90% of the drafts in my data set have him. However, if you're like TyCobb and you have a tendency to develop a strong emotional attachment to your favorite late first/early second round prospect (Bell, Looney and more), this tool could be useful as you'll know not to suggest drafting Bell with the 2nd overall pick in your posts. Or maybe you moonlight as a basketball writer/blogger and you want to do a mock. If that's the case, now you have a compilation of 17 different mocks to reference to make sure you don't say anything too far off from your peers.

-The standard deviation for Fultz and Ball are 0 because everyone has them as the 1st and 2nd overall pick. For anyone else, if the deviation is 0, that means only one person had them on their draft (very common for late 2nd rounds picks).

-I chose to give no weight to any absences rather than 61 or any number that reflected an undrafted assumption from the author of the mock. This is because different authors built in different assumptions (often without specifying them for the reader) about who's going to return to school and who's not. We'll have more clarity on who's doing what once we pass the deadline in a couple of days, but I wanted to share this with you guys a little earlier

-Standard deviation gets higher as you go down, with the highest being for late first to early second round picks (again because of the lack of data for 2nd round picks).

-There were no double counts. Every mock was done by a different author and was written after the lottery. I will say though that Hoopshype basically plagiarized nbadraft.net's mock.


Player // Average Draft Pick // Standard Deviation
Markelle Fultz 1 0.0
Lonzo Ball 2 0.0
Josh Jackson 3.5 0.5
Jayson Tatum 4.6 1.3
De'Aaron Fox 4.6 0.6
Malik Monk 6.2 2.0
Jonathan Isaac 7.3 1.2
Dennis Smith 7.5 1.2
Frank Ntilikina 9.6 1.2
Lauri Markkanen 9.6 2.0
Zach Collins 11.2 1.4
Jarrett Allen 15.9 3.2
OG Anunoby 16.1 7.2
Justin Jackson (UNC) 16.3 5.2
Donovan Mitchell 17 4.3
Justin Patton 17.7 3.1
T.J. Leaf 18 4.5
Terrance Ferguson 18 4.5
Luke Kennard 18.1 4.1
John Collins 18.3 4.8
Harry Giles 20.8 3.9
Ivan Rabb 22.9 3.5
Ike Anigbogu 22.9 6.4
Bam Adebayo 24.4 4.5
Isaiah Hartenstein 24.4 4.4
Hamidou Diallo 24.8 6.9
Rodions Kurucs 25.2 3.8
Justin Jackson (MD) 27 0.0
Tyler Lydon 27.5 7.7
D.J. Wilson 27.9 6.3
Kyle Kuzma 29.1 10.0
Jonathan Jeanne 29.3 7.2
Jawun Evans 30 4.6
Jordan Bell 30.3 4.6
Frank Jackson 32.6 7.1
Derrick White 34 8.2
Semi Ojeleye 34 8.6
Caleb Swanigan 34.3 6.0
Anzejs Pasecniks 35 6.7
Omer Yurtseven 35 6.0
Josh Hart 36.9 6.8
Rawle Atkins 37 0.0
Tony Bradley 37.2 9.4
P.J. Dozier 38.1 9.9
Dwayne Bacon 39.4 12.6
Johnathan Motley 40.1 12.7
Sindarius Thornwell 41.4 9.3
Edmond Sumner 42.7 8.1
Kostja Mushidi 43.5 7.5
Mathias Lessort 44 7.2
Thomas Bryant 44.4 6.0
Dillon Brooks 44.8 6.1
Devin Robinson 44.8 10.0
Jaron Blossomgame 44.9 8.5
Moritz Wagner 45 15.0
Isaac Humphries 45 0.0
Frank Mason 46.3 9.1
Wesley Iwundu 46.6 11.1
Damyean Dotson 47 4.0
Nigel Williams-Goss 47.6 9.2
Cameron Oliver 47.9 6.9
Andrew Jones 48 0.0
Monte Morris 49 8.8
Arnoldas Kulboka 49.5 3.5
V.J. Beachem 49.5 2.5
Jonah Bolden 50 4.9
Alec Peters 50.1 7.0
Isaiah Hicks 51 0.0
Sterling Brown 51.7 8.5
Tyler Dorsey 52.3 4.6
Moses Kingsley 53 0.0
Kobi Simmons 53.2 7.3
Aleksandar Vezenkov 53.5 4.5
Nigel Hayes 54 2.0
Melo Trimble 54 0.0
Chris Boucher 54 0.0
Alpha Kaba 54.3 4.2
Vince Edwards 55 0.0
Davon Reed 55.5 2.5
Chance Comanche 57 0.0
Trevon Bluiett 57 0.0
Malcolm Hill 58 0.0
Michael Fusek 59 0.0
Egemen Guven 60 0.0
Luke Kornet 60 0.0
Andrew White 60 0.0


Hope this improves the quality of discussions about the draft on this board at least a little bit, as I'm sure the amount of draft related posts will pickup as we get closer to late June.

[Slava]

Can you post the list of mock draft sources you used to compile this? It would also be helpful if you put a number next to each player for easy reference.

[aaron_gray]

What it looks like on my spreadsheet:

[aaron_gray]

Can you post the list of mock draft sources you used to compile this? It would also be helpful if you put a number next to each player for easy reference.

I don't have the links sorted, but you can just google NBA Mock Draft 2017 "source x".

My sources were:
DraftExpress
nbadraft.net
Bleacherreport
Tankathon
The Ringer
SEC Country
LandofTen
nba.com
Chad Ford
Fox Sports
Sporting News
USA Today
SB Nation
HoopsHype
Gary Parrish (CBS)
NBC Sports
Sports Illustrated

Best ones are draftexpress, Ringer, nbadraft.net and B/R

[Dr Aki]

what about http://www.tinyupload.com ?

[aaron_gray]

what about http://www.tinyupload.com ?

Hey it worked!

[Michael Lucky]

Nice work. I might do my own the day before the draft, just to compare how the draft order matches up.

[TylersLakers]

Nice, good job man.

[TyCobb]

Great surface level stuff.

[Slava]

Great surface level stuff.

Looking at the biggest standard deviation it's been prospects with past injury histories.