Post#231 » by wco81 » Thu Feb 20, 2025 8:46 pm 
            
            
            It's only been 3 games and he will likely revert to the mean and put up MVP numbers, if not the remaining games of this season, then next season.
Presumably he will have keys to the store so he will play with the same usage, style and shot attempts he had with the Mavs, even with Lebron on the team.
But the Lakers are facing a decision later THIS YEAR to offer him the max.
IF he struggles the remaining 25-30 games, do they still offer him the max extension?
Otherwise, he would potentially be a UFA in the summer of 2026 because he has a $49 million player option for 2026-27 season.  So I believe the Lakers would have  until some time in October or early November to offer him an extension and for him to accept or reject it.
If he doesn't sign an extension, he would become a UFA in July 2026.  Of course the Lakers could sign him then but then so could other teams with cap space.
So they have a pretty limited number of games to see what kind of production he has with the Lakers before a big milestone (this fall).  Of course, arguably, his past performance means that Lakers HAVE to sign him one way or another.
But his contract also has a bearing on other players too.  Lebron has a player option this summer on $52.6 million for 2025-26.  No doubt he will opt into that, because he's not leaving LA.  Also, his younger son may even be draft eligible in April 2026?  So he may want the Lakers to draft him as well.
But the biggest impact Luka will have on the roster is Austin Reaves, who's on a bargain contract now.  AR was having his highest scoring season (though he was more efficient last season).  His minutes are up, his FGA, 3PA and FTAs are all up to career highs.  Highest average assists as well.
But most of these numbers were BEFORE the trade.
AR has a player option just under $15 million for 2026-2027.  That means in July 2026, he can opt out and look for a bigger contract, either with the Lakers or another team.  Again, I guess the Lakers can offer him an extension this fall?
Potentially Luka and AR could both be UFAs in July 2026.  Obviously the Lakers won't allow either to walk.  Will extend or trade one or both.  But AR is going to command a contract probably north of $35 million if not $40 million a year, given where his production was before the trade.
If he stays on the Lakers, he likely won't get the same usage rate, at least not with LBJ and Luka on the team.  Lakers  can keep him but maybe he goes from 34.6 MPG to like 25-30 MPG?  And he doesn't get 13.8 FGAs per game but more like 10-11?
So how much would the Lakers pay him if he is to have a reduced role?
Or he may not want to stay if he sees his usage, minutes and shots cut back.